Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Both parties up on the primary vote in the latest Essential poll, which concurs with Newspoll in finding Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings edging upwards and Bill Shorten’s edging down.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, and The Guardian report provides full primary votes for a change: both major parties are up two, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 6%, with the “others” vote presumably well down. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which tell a remarkably similar story to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up one to 43%, his best result since March 2016, and his disapproval is down two to 40%, his best since the eve of the July 2016 election; while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 31% and up one to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out to 42-25, compared with 41-27 last time.

The Essential poll also finds only 15% of respondents expect the government’s national energy guarantee will reduce power prices, compared with 22% for increasing them (down nine since the same question was asked last October) and 38% for making no difference (up seven). The government’s proposed tax cuts for big companies have 41% support, up four on a month or so ago, with 36% opposed, down one. Further on company tax cuts, The Australian has a comprehensive set of further results from the weekend’s Newspoll, which find respondents tending to be persuaded that the cuts will be good for employment (50% responded cuts would create more jobs versus 36% who said they would not, and 43% believed repealing them would put jobs at risk versus 37% saying they would not), yet 52% supported Bill Shorten saying cuts for businesses with $10 million to $50 million turnover would be repeated if won office, versus only 37% opposed.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Sceptic @ 11.24 am

    People complain about the tall poppy syndrome in Australia, but the fact that we regard all politicians with a fair degree of cynicism and sometimes contempt tends to protect us from shysters such as have taken over the federal government in the USA. Large numbers of Americans clearly lack our bullshit detectors.

  2. jenauthor @ #1771 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 11:17 am

    ABC has axed the checkout.

    I only watched once because it was basically a kids show in prime time BUT Australian content is being either ditched, or ABC is buying reruns from Foxtel production (and isn’t Rupert rubbing his hands together when they gazump ABC)

    Let’s not forget that much of SBS programming is now provided by Viceland.

    The demolition of Australian TV is almost complete.

  3. Dan G

    Thanks for nothing. There are times when a person wants to rest and daytime TV is almost guaranteed to ensure sleep.

  4. Bureau of Meteorology, Victoria

    Verified account

    @BOM_Vic
    33m

    A Severe Weather Warning has been issued for southern and mountain parts of #Victoria. Damaging winds as high as 100 km/hr are likely in the Southwest tonight and remaining areas in the warning zone during Saturday. Details: http://ow.ly/VJ5w50hUiPL

  5. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-06/gst-redistribution-deal-race-for-mps-to-take-credit/9941356

    The Turnbull Government’s plan to overhaul the way GST revenue is carved up, boosting WA’s share without taking money away from other states, elicited two key messages from those in the west.

    The first, rather unsurprisingly, was to welcome the news.

    “It is a solution, it is genuine GST reform,” WA Treasurer Ben Wyatt said, expressing a view echoed widely in the state.
    ::::
    Even greater than the rush to welcome the news was a near-stampede to take credit for it happening.

  6. I would refer anyone remotely interested to RBA Governor, Lowe’s, address to the Bank of International Settlements, where he has assumed the Chair.

    This is where the risk is.

    That the continuation of a low interest regime fuels inflation with that inflation putting pressure on interest rates and bringing into focus the private debt of the Nation (Howard’s borrowers).

    That end event of low interest rates persisting and the Trump Trade War are the dangers.

    Lowe is, of course, on the public record in regard wages growth – rejected by the current government which made no submission to the recent FWC hearing (the outcome of which was attacked by employer organizations aka Willox).

    I have put on this site the need for a re-balance to ALSO give recognition to labour (wages) and savers (interest rates) from the absolute advantage Capital (wages as a cost to Capital) and Borrowers (interest rates) have enjoyed since the GFC (interest rates) and over the term of this government (wages) respectively.

    As always, some learn the lessons – and the Capital requirements on our arbitrage lender banks have strengthened to mitigate against risk to their Balance Sheets.

    In Lowe we have a professional practitioner, one government should be taking note of.

    Simply, from a Cash Rate of 1.5% (the lowest in history and which has maintained now for 2 years) that Cash Rate will increase (and there is now pressure on Global Market Rates regardless of Central Bank settings), movements in the Cash Rate will be upward as inflation (eventually) resumes at bench mark settings and borrowers who have been the beneficiary of the post GFC interest rate settings will confront a reality they have evaded for over 10 years now, since the increases of 2007 (courtesy of government policy and inflation and when the 10 Year Bond Yield had a 7 in front of it – now with a 2 in front of it).

    Lowe’s warnings should not be ignored.

    With his Board he sets interest rates and he is most obviously well aware of entrenched under trend inflation firstly achieving bench mark and then the danger of exceeding bench mark with impact of interest rates and the Howard borrowers.

    In regards my reference to Howard borrowers, that comes from 10 Year RBA data, and the successive movements in the household debt owed to our financial institutions, where in January 1990 Households owed $118 Billion, in 2000 January owed $355 Billion and in January 2010 owed $1.226 Trillion, a 350% increase into an economy under achieving the long term GDP growth rate of 3.5% PA with that household debt then equaling the GDP of the Nation (noting our banks responded to the GFC by being, at least, very, very selective in regards any lending approvals – being replicated now in response to the Hayne RC because that is how banks respond to crisis – they do not act in the National interest instead navel gazing at the prospect of Bad and Doubtful debt courtesy of prior Credit criteria supporting a “grow the book regardless” culture, so they wax and wane with no consistency instead of adhering to appropriate and consistent risk analysis which supports credentialed loan applicants)

    So, by say mid 2019, we will see structured increases in the Cash Rate being absorbed by Howard’s borrowers and the risks of that are well understood by Lowe, as is any impact of the continuation of low interest rates on inflation.

    So it is a very narrow path – then we have Trump and his Trade War.

    As with walking into the GFC in 2007, a Labor Administration will be confronted with a difficult legacy of unsustainable largess built on debt and cheap debt

    The advantages Capital and borrowers have had for just too long.

    Including now that Capital seeks further advantage by way of tax relief, at precisely the wrong time in the economic cycle government is charged with managing across.

    The proposed “GST resolution” is read in this context also, given the (further) largess proposed and any impact on inflation if that largess is transitioned to the economy replicating the circumstances of 2004->2007 both inclusive, driving inflation, interest rate rises and economic risk to the Nation.

  7. The IPA got 4.5 MILLION from Hancock.

    Dee Madigan
    56m

    And they didn’t declare it. Imagine for a sec if a union or getup didn’t declare a 4.5 Million donation. The right wing media would be baying for blood

  8. “Large numbers of Americans clearly lack our bullshit detectors.”

    I’ve always felt this – and felt australians would never fall for the fake sincerity of Reagan, Bill Clinton and others. But then along came Kevin Rudd. I remember seeing him on Sunrise when he was a junior shadow minister and thinking ‘what a phoney’, but was amazed at the number of people who thought he was the real deal and loved him. Australians are easily as stupid as US-americans, and we don’t have the depth of talent and intellect they US left (that doesn’t get well reported here) has. If they were separate countries, New York, Massachusetts and California (and others) would be seen as far more progressive countries that Australia. Australia would be Texas of Arkansas (a state that up to 20 years ago still voted democrat because they haven’t forgiven republicans for being the party of Lincoln and ending slavery, but now records a 60+% republican vote).

  9. adrian,

    What’s with always putting words in my mouth or projecting attitudes and views on to me that I have not expressed.

    I said what I wanted to say.

    The need to constantly vent is not something I engage in. It’s such a waste of time and energy.

  10. Peg

    Sorry to hear about your illness and the pain you are going through.
    Hope everything turns out ok for you in the end and you can be up and mobile again.

  11. Pegasus @ #1738 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:30 am

    C

    Danby announces his retirement and he gets dumped on. No rant from you or anyone else in response. Macklin goes and I dare to link to a couple of posts critical of her without adding any rabid, bloviating ad-hominems and I am the devil incarnate.

    Thin-skinned – Yeah.

    Michael Danby hasn’t made 1/10th the contribution in his parliamentary career that Jenny Macklin has. But equivocate away. Meh.

  12. c@tmomma – I wouldn’t sell Danby’s contributions short.

    Danby choosing to retire was an amazing contribution to politics 😉

  13. observer,

    I rate your input on macro and financial economics, but learn how to write a short sentence! If you’ve got ten lines it’s not a sentence, it’s a paragraph!

    But anyway, I reckon these concerns are going to drive the Libs to an earlier-than-expected election. First, they’ll do whatever short-term rubber band stretching is required to post a surplus. Bowen tried to bell this cat yesterday, but IMHO he didn’t cut through.

    The second step will be to bail out of Govt before the macroeconomic string pull tight and the commercial banks have to raise interest rates independently of the RBA. This could be in response to the trade and financial battles going on between USA, China and the EU, or some other trigger (Italy? Emerging economy capital flight?) . Whatever finally does it, the risk are piling up, in number and in size.

    The Libs back themselves to exit before the real damage begins. Labor has to put them on the hook for the economic outcomes they are responsible for, particularly the effect it will have on the C’wealth budget.

  14. Pegasus @ #1735 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:30 am

    C

    Danby announces his retirement and he gets dumped on. No rant from you or anyone else in response. Macklin goes and I dare to link to a couple of posts critical of her without adding any rabid, bloviating ad-hominems and I am the devil incarnate.

    Thin-skinned – Yeah.

    Peg

    There is a difference for me at least.

    I like Jenny. She is a decent person and has always tried to do her best to help others. Perhps she has never been as bold as some but she has an innate decency.

    Danby however would have made a great member of the rightwing faction of the LNP and its probably only happenstance that has him in the ALP

  15. Pegasus @ #1817 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 12:01 pm

    adrian,

    What’s with always putting words in my mouth or projecting attitudes and views on to me that I have not expressed.

    I said what I wanted to say.

    The need to constantly vent is not something I engage in. It’s such a waste of time and energy.

    I’m not interested in carrying this on either, and I am sorry to hear of your illness as well.

    However, from my POV you seem to ‘vent’ a hell of a lot about the perceived flaws in the ALP on this blog.

  16. To add to my 11.49AM comment, I would also refer to the AMF (France) and IFO Institute (Germany) appraisals plus the comment of Carney from the Bank of England.

    These comments draw to question the Tory “free market” approach that the most effective form of regulation is self regulation.

    It is not, never has been and will never be.

    The risks covered by Lowe are repeated by the AMF with its stark warning of the possibility of a correction starting with US Equities, the IFO Institute and the Bank of England.

    And we have a government sleep walking and seeking political favor by largess, at precisely the wrong time in the economic cycle.

    Self interest, not the National interest by uneducated, self serving fools of the first order.

  17. adrian @ #1745 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:41 am

    I know how C@tmomma feels I think.

    As a Labor supporter you get it from all sides – the constant barrage of negativity from the media, the obsessive right wing trolls, and then the greens.

    I don’t think its too much to expect to give it a rest on the day that one of the best parliamentarians of recent times announces her retirement.

    After all nobody is perfect, except for a few sanctimonious individuals.

    And can anyone remember the last time they heard something positive about Shorten from our fabulous media?

    Thank you, adrian. 🙂

    Finally, someone looked at the bigger picture and saw not tribal, partisan politics and the opportunity to have a go at an opposite number but a lady and a gentlewoman who deserved her day in the sun.

  18. What gets me is all these glowing obits from media … they never gave Macklin the credit she deserved at the time. Democracy is rolling in its grave right now

  19. adrian @ #1828 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 12:27 pm

    Pegasus @ #1817 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 12:01 pm

    adrian,

    What’s with always putting words in my mouth or projecting attitudes and views on to me that I have not expressed.

    I said what I wanted to say.

    The need to constantly vent is not something I engage in. It’s such a waste of time and energy.

    I’m not interested in carrying this on either, and I am sorry to hear of your illness as well.

    However, from my POV you seem to ‘vent’ a hell of a lot about the perceived flaws in the ALP on this blog.

    Exactly. You would think that someone with so much spare time on their hands would see fit to cut and paste some anti Coalition government articles from time to time. Instead of angling for a sympathy vote so they can continue to post anti Labor material.

  20. adrian

    cheers,

    You have a very, very low bar what you consider to be “venting”.

    If linking to news of the day is “venting”, then so be it.

  21. Jenny Macklin did a lot of good things but her role in the slashing of single parent pensions probably did more bad than her involvement in any other policy area. Her admission a few months after losing office in 2013 that she had made a mistake and ‘got it wrong’ was pretty cavalier considering the pressure she had put on single parent families.

  22. nath @ #1835 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 12:33 pm

    Jenny Macklin did a lot of good things but her role in the slashing of single parent pensions probably did more bad than her involvement in any other policy area. Her admission a few months after losing office in 2013 that she had made a mistake and ‘got it wrong’ was pretty cavalier considering the pressure she had put on single parent families.

    At least she admitted her mistake. Most politicians these days just double down.

  23. Yabba,

    There’s an Aussie company developing a hemp-crete 3D printing construction product. I’m not sure of the binder they intend to use, they are aiming for a carbon-negative end product.

  24. nath chips in with a snark.

    The shorter nath: “Labor is not perfect, according to the way I perceive the world should be. Labor MPs are not perfect either: they even try to make common ground with folk I love to sneer at in Bohobostan – mainly peole who work in overalls and hi-vis safety clothes. Sometimes they make mistakes. THEY STAND CONDEMNED (even when they later recognise the maistake and apoligise and seek to make amends).

    Only the Greens, perfectly formed (and perfectly impotent) are worth a smashed avacado (indeed smashed avacados are so 2017). In fact the Greens are so good I’d have a a breakfast of Hallumi-Zucchini fritters with 61 degree eggs on a bed of beetroot jus and a side of quinao with them!

  25. Yay! No Lib-Lab same-same about it. No State Coalition government has done this:

    Recycling industry applauds the Andrews Government’s $37 million package to boost the market for recycled materials in the state, which follows Senate inquiry’s recommendation that governments adopt green procurement.

    Victoria’s new Recycling Industry Strategic Plan, which will drive demand for products containing recycled materials through government procurement, has been welcomed by recycling and resource recovery businesses.

    National peak body the Australian Council of Recycling said the package, which includes funding for infrastructure and community education, “delivers needed certainty in uncertain times.”

    “The lesson for all from the China Sword situation is that we need to pivot to a secure, self-reliant system of domestic recycling. This package helps make that important transition,” said Pete Shmigel, chief executive of ACOR.

    Public policy support and clear rules meant the recycling industry could be more confident about private investment, including enhanced reprocessing technology in the state, he said.

    Victoria’s Minister for Energy, Environment and Climate Change Lily D’Ambrosio on Tuesday announced the $37 million package, which includes $8.3 million for improved recycling infrastructure and $2 million to identify new and innovative uses for recycled materials.

    Under the plan, Sustainability Victoria, in consultation with the Department of Treasury and Finance, will assist government departments and agencies to “identify opportunities and, where appropriate, develop their own targets to increase procurement of recycled content.”

    An education component will help reduce the contamination of kerbside recycling, she said.

    https://www.governmentnews.com.au/2018/07/victorian-government-moves-on-green-procurement/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=July_6_2018_Newsletter&utm_content=July_6_2018_Newsletter+Version+B+CID_ca3bbf75c08aaa8c9ca236f5ebd1481f&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=Victorian%20Government%20moves%20on%20green%20procurement

  26. lizzie @ #1757 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:56 am

    “The ABC has decided not to proceed with the next series of consumer affairs show The Checkout, which was about to go into production.

    Reasons given: budget cuts and high cost of production.”

    This was one show which only a non-commercial broadcaster could make. 🙁

    Shit. This was in equal measure an annoying, quirky, fun and very informative show. It taught me a lot about my rights under consumer law. Another bad mark against our great LNP. (Thanks Lizzie for letting me know.)

  27. You have to admit, The D Gen crew and The Chaser ‘Boys’, do come up with a lot of original content, not all of it great, but the media is content hungry these days.

  28. Thai SEAL dies from lack of oxygen in the caves.

    BTW the soccer coach who took the boys so far in there must be an idiot.

  29. C@tmomma

    hate to rain on your parade (and hate to give a LNP government a pat on the back), but the NSW LNP has had much more generous waste minimisation and resource recovery grant programs – $100s of millions worth – running for years now. NSW put a large amount of their landfill levy into these programs. Victoria has collected close to billion in landfill levy revenue over the past 5-10 years (~$50-60/tonne of landfilled waste) and the merest trickle has come back to the industry. It was once the other way around, with Vic splashing the levy money – 80% of the levy fund going back to supporting industry and NSW putting levy funds into consolidated revenue. At that stage Victoria lead the nation and much of the world in recycling rates, but we are now going backwards. Hopefully the wheel is turning here in Vic, but I fear the government is going to try to build mixed waste to energy incinerators that sound like a win win, but have fossil carbon emissions per MJ similar to brown coal and are being phased out in the EU because they are a shit way to manage waste.

  30. Holden Hillbilly @ #1846 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 1:35 pm

    BTW the soccer coach who took the boys so far in there must be an idiot.

    That’s actually my question. How did they get so far into the cave that rescuers can only reach them using scuba gear, without using any scuba gear?

    Did the caves flood after they went in, or something?

  31. I happen to think that supporting the single parenting pension was core A.L.P business and should never have been weakened. Macklin admitted her mistake after the A.L.P lost office and she was speaking to a single parent association, trying to get their support so she could return to the ministerial benches. Am I alone in thinking this was a bit cynical? God forbid we hold politicians to account and question their motives. They thought they could dispense with single parent families when in office and then sought their support to get back in. pretty standard political practice but worthy of being called out I think.

  32. Jenny Macklin is 64, so at an age when most people would like to retire. I didn’t realise she was that old. Still, she will be missed in a Labot Government.

    EDIT: she had the misfortune to start her political career in 1996, so spent most of it in Opposition. Still, Kim Beasley Snr and other Labor luminaries did worse, being elected in 1949 and spending 27/30 years in Opposition.

    It is my sincere hope that a similar fate overtakes the IPA hotshots who get elected in 2018/19, but not will stick around 20 or 30 years.

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