Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Both parties up on the primary vote in the latest Essential poll, which concurs with Newspoll in finding Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings edging upwards and Bill Shorten’s edging down.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, and The Guardian report provides full primary votes for a change: both major parties are up two, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 6%, with the “others” vote presumably well down. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which tell a remarkably similar story to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up one to 43%, his best result since March 2016, and his disapproval is down two to 40%, his best since the eve of the July 2016 election; while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 31% and up one to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out to 42-25, compared with 41-27 last time.

The Essential poll also finds only 15% of respondents expect the government’s national energy guarantee will reduce power prices, compared with 22% for increasing them (down nine since the same question was asked last October) and 38% for making no difference (up seven). The government’s proposed tax cuts for big companies have 41% support, up four on a month or so ago, with 36% opposed, down one. Further on company tax cuts, The Australian has a comprehensive set of further results from the weekend’s Newspoll, which find respondents tending to be persuaded that the cuts will be good for employment (50% responded cuts would create more jobs versus 36% who said they would not, and 43% believed repealing them would put jobs at risk versus 37% saying they would not), yet 52% supported Bill Shorten saying cuts for businesses with $10 million to $50 million turnover would be repeated if won office, versus only 37% opposed.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. In breaking news, sky is not falling for labor.

    The usual “Chicken Littles” like ESJ and Rex are desperately trying to make a silk purse from a sows ear but end up making themselves horses’ arses.

    Rinse and repeat!

  2. Morning all.
    After Labor’s announcement on the weekend on Western Sydney railways, Andrew Constance, the state transport minister has changed his tune:

    Bill Shorten’s pledge to spend $3 billion on a Metro West line between Parramatta and central Sydney has triggered an about-face from Transport Minister Andrew Constance, who has stopped calling on the federal government to help fund the project.

    Mr Constance has consistently appealed for federal funds to pay for the rail line, which is badly needed to alleviate pressure on Sydney’s over-crowded western rail line.

  3. Just goes to show how important the Governments attacks on Alberici were in trying to destroy any message about how ineffective the corporate tax cuts will be.

  4. The SmearStralian leading with Tony Abbott slamming Turnbull over his cuddling up with Labor over NEG, saying it’s a repeat of 2009 which nearly tore the party apart. Ratchet it up, Tones.

    And remarkably, the sturm und drang from last week about Bill Shorten has evaporated. Not a sausage.

  5. John Reidy @ #6 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 4:05 am

    Morning all.
    After Labor’s announcement on the weekend on Western Sydney railways, Andrew Constance, the state transport minister has changed his tune:

    Bill Shorten’s pledge to spend $3 billion on a Metro West line between Parramatta and central Sydney has triggered an about-face from Transport Minister Andrew Constance, who has stopped calling on the federal government to help fund the project.

    Mr Constance has consistently appealed for federal funds to pay for the rail line, which is badly needed to alleviate pressure on Sydney’s over-crowded western rail line.

    ?itemid=6268671

  6. Labor has stalled under Shorten.

    All Labor hacks on PB hold hands and work very hard on practising denial now.

    Don’t worry ae (he of faux Roman history knowledge) and Doyley will be a long for a pep talk shortly.

  7. Barney – 37% primary does not an election win maketh.

    If you don’t understand that I can’t help you. Go talk to ae he’ll tell you it’s all ok.

  8. More luminaries getting on the BringBackTony bandwagon…

    “TONY Abbott has found an unlikely supporter, with Bob Carr praising his dealings with China when he was Prime Minister.

    The former Foreign Minister expressed his concern about the Coalition’s current relationship with the super power, telling Miranda Live a group of “anti-China zealots” — like author Clive Hamilton — are causing unnecessary panic in Australia.

    “I’m just trying to get things back where we’ve got, as we had under Abbott, a national interest based China policy, where we let China know when we disagree with them”, he said.

    Mr Carr believes Australia found balance with dealing with the communist nation in the year leading up to Tony Abbott being rolled by Malcolm Turnbull for the leadership.

    “We had the balance more or less right in the last year or two of Tony Abbott — free trade agreement, serious position on the South China Sea — but engaging with China, and we ought to go back to it”, he told Miranda Live host Miranda Devine.

  9. Elmer Woodard once “enjoyed beating up bad guys” in his role with a nonprofit that provides counsel to low-income people. But in recent years, he has become the legal face of the white nationalist movement and is the go-to attorney for the neo-Nazis and white supremacists who descended on Charlottesville last year.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/he-once-defended-the-poor-in-court-now-he-defends-white-supremacists/2018/07/01/0c7bfa6a-6901-11e8-9e38-24e693b38637_story.html?utm_term=.6aaf9a085262

    And he looks like a throwback to the era when slavery was legal!

  10. Morning all. Labor should stick to the anti tax cut message. Job hopes from tax cuts are a mirage as Alberici said. Shorten had the correct idea though the back flip was unfortunate.

    Also Andrew Constance’s backflip shows west Sydney rail is a great idea.

  11. Bernardi on QandA: so arrogant. So simple.
    Henderson: has completely absorbed the Liberal lies about trickledown economy.

    Best in show: the comedian. 🙂

  12. There’s a mysterious web linking the Trump family to Anthony Kennedy

    What started the speculation about dirty money connecting Trump, Kennedy and his son is the revelation that Kennedy and Trump have had a longstanding relationship through their children and their children’s success. We knew about Trump’s dealings with Deutsche Bank, the only bank willing to do business with him. (It’s also, perhaps not coincidentally, the bank that seems to have the longest illegal relationship with laundered Russian money. In January 2017, it was fined $425 million by New York regulators to settle allegations that it helped Russian investors launder as much as $10 billion through its branches in Moscow, New York and London.) But we’re just finding out about the Trump relationship with Justin Kennedy, the justice’s son, who worked at Deutsche Bank for a decade.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/theres-mysterious-web-linking-trump-family-anthony-kennedy/

  13. This should be enough for the Democrats to get Murkowski and Collins in the Senate to ensure the Republicans can’t ram through Trump’s Scotus nominee. In essence it meant he wasn’t exactly truthful when he met with Murkowski which won’t go over over well with her.

    In an interview with Fox airing Sunday and Monday, Trump doubled down on his past rhetoric about sending the issue of abortion to the states, which is another way of saying overturning Roe. (Roe legalized abortion nationwide, meaning its repeal would allow states to decide the issue.) Trump said he would “probably not” ask potential nominees directly about Roe — given that such litmus tests are frowned upon — but then he reiterated his past view of how this issue would play out.

    “Maybe someday it will be to the states,” he said. “You never know how that’s going to turn out. That’s a very complex question. The Roe v. Wade is probably the one that people are talking about in terms of having an effect, but we’ll see what happens. But it could very well end up with states at some point.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/07/02/trump-makes-clear-roe-v-wade-is-on-the-chopping-block/?utm_term=.732bba69a71e

  14. Cohen ending ‘joint defense agreement’ with Trump only ‘makes sense in world where he flips’: ex-prosecutor

    Michael Cohen has ended his joint legal defense with the president, which experts say is a definitive sign that President Donald Trump’s former personal attorney is about to “flip” and cooperate with prosecutors.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/cohen-ending-joint-defense-agreement-trump-makes-sense-world-flips-ex-prosecutor/

  15. sprocket:

    Tony really ought to take that feedback onboard and ratchet up his whiteanting. I mean it’s clear that only he had the unique skill to steer the Good Ship Australia.

    #BringBackTone

  16. Edwina StJohn @ #12 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 4:19 am

    Barney – 37% primary does not an election maketh.

    If you don’t understand that I can’t help you. Go talk to ae he’ll tell you it’s all ok.

    When you’re getting 80%+ of the Green preferences that 37% is 45%+ versus 42% with the others splitting about 60% to the Government, the Government is no where near 50%.

  17. Meanwhile a new president has been elected in a landslide in Mexico.

    Mr. López Obrador’s victory puts a leftist leader at the helm of Latin America’s second-largest economy for the first time in decades, a prospect that has filled millions of Mexicans with hope — and the nation’s elites with trepidation.

    The outcome represents a clear rejection of the status quo in the nation, which for the last quarter century has been defined by a centrist vision and an embrace of globalization that many Mexicans feel has not served them.

    The core promises of Mr. López Obrador’s campaign — to end corruption, reduce violence and address Mexico’s endemic poverty — were immensely popular with voters, but they come with questions he and his new government may struggle to answer.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/01/world/americas/mexico-election-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    Chief among them: how does he pay for all that?

  18. My dear Barney,

    Look at the raw polling data – you’ll see the last time Labor had a primary vote of 38% or higher was December last year. The liberals had a 40% primary last month and now – otherwise you have to go back to 2016.

    The trend is ebbing away from Shorten. He has to win the by-elections and win well to survive otherwise Labor will knife him.

    It’s simply the iron law of politics reasserting itself despite the callowness of the federal alp caucus. All those nice private school boys want to be ministers after all.

  19. Crikey thinks Trioli won that round.

    David Leyonhjelm: No woman in my family would accuse all men of being sexual predators.
    Virginia Trioli: And neither did Senator Sarah Hanson-Young, you certainly can’t produce that quote and she denies saying that.
    DL: So you believe her and you’re calling me a liar. Thank you very much.
    VT: No I’m saying you actually can’t remember. You’ve said that you can’t exactly remember what she said… You’ve given me ‘words to the effect’ that range across a number of different scenarios.
    DL: Do I have to remember every word precisely for it to be true?
    VT: In order to justify a pretty strong comment, yeah I reckon you do.
    DL: No I don’t reckon I don’t.
    — David Leyonhjelm and Virginia Trioli

  20. I’ve tried to keep out of the ongoing PB debate about the polls, but I would observe that the ER result today suggests to me that the apparently falling level of voter enthusiasm for Shorten – from what was never a particularly high starting point – must be a worry for Labor strategists.

    My interpretation of Australian political history at the Federal Government level is that the electorate as a whole harbours a tendency to vote conservatively, particularly in times of economic uncertainty. Labor has been able to counteract this tendency when they have two key things going for them: 1) a popular, charismatic leader (Whitlam, Hawke, Rudd, etc.); and 2) an ability to project a moderate approach towards business, the economy and the budget.

    Labor under Shorten isn’t delivering either of these things at the moment. Shorten doesn’t appear to be especially popular, and the “down with the big end of town, I stand for the workers” message makes him sound like a militant union leader, which is tremendously off-putting for some potentially swinging voters. The Australian public generally doesn’t mind the idea of Labor leaders who were ex-union officials, but they don’t want them to use the language of the shop steward.

    Labor continues to enjoy a lead in the polls because the public are not greatly impressed by the Government. But Labor have put themselves at considerable risk of being brought down by a “play it safe, stick with the devil you know” campaign by the Libs. Because Turnbull and co have been so distracted by internal party matters, they haven’t been able to crank this campaign up yet. But surely they will come election time.

    Given the jittery nature of the Turnbull Government, I still can’t work out why Labor has ended up adopting such a big target strategy. Was the Labor brains trust mainly concerned with beating the Greens in the inner city? Do they have convincing evidence from internal polling and focus groups that this sort of policy package and rhetoric is going to sweep them into office, because people are uncomfortable about how wealthy a man Turnbull is? Up to now, I have thought that perhaps they do have such evidence, but I’m starting to wonder if their strategy is based more on hope than on science.

    The only big target opposition campaign I can remember ever working at the Federal level was Whitlam back in 1972. And, even though Gough released a mountain of policies back then, my recollection is that these took a back seat in the public’s mind to all the glitter and glam of the celebrity-laden It’s Time campaign. But there’s very little in the way of glitter and glam at the forefront of the Federal Labor campaign at the moment: there’s a focus on hard-edged taxation policies and none of the emphasis on the arts and culture that characterised Whitlam’s approach, and which would be unimaginable in today’s political milieu.

    Labor would be crazy even to think of a leadership change at this time. But they should seriously consider softening their rhetoric. Bar the use of the term “big end of town.” Get some messages out there about how conciliatory and pragmatic Shorten was with business when he was leading the AWU. Try to project an image of being safe and competent, and being prepared to govern for all Australians. It seems an obvious approach to me, but for some reason not to them.

    Anyway, I fear I’m repeating myself (not that this would make me Robinson Crusoe on PB). I hope you all have a great day.

  21. Edwina StJohn @ #29 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 4:42 am

    My dear Barney,

    Look at the raw polling data – you’ll see the last time Labor had a primary vote of 38% or higher was December last year. The liberals had a 40% primary last month and now – otherwise you have to go back to 2016.

    The trend is ebbing away from Shorten. He has to win the by-elections and win well to survive otherwise Labor will knife him.

    It’s simply the iron law of politics reasserting itself despite the callowness of the federal alp caucus. All those nice private school boys want to be ministers after all.

    And those raw numbers don’t give the Government a path to 50%.

    They need considerably more to reach that point.

  22. ‘”Have you paused to reflect on why you have such a reflex to get quite personal and, frankly, bitchy when women take you on?” she asked.

    Leyonhjelm’s response to that was, in effect, something along the lines of… “no”.’

    Some posters will understand why I think this is worth posting!

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/i-can-call-it-out-leyonhjelm-refuses-to-apologise-in-tv-interviews-20180702-p4zp2t.html

    (I’m not accusing any poster here of going personal…)

  23. mb,

    If anything this poll highlights how irrelevant a leader’s popularity is.

    Shorten’s falls, Labor primary increases 2%.

    Turnbull’s rises, the Government primary increases 2%.

  24. The character keeps digging himself into a deeper and deeper hole:

    EXCLUSIVE

    I’ll say sorry, with conditions

    6:55AMGREG BROWN, RACHEL BAXENDALE
    David Leyonhjelm has delivered a list of conditions in return for an apology to Sarah Hanson-Young for coarse remarks about her. (Oz headline)

  25. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Here are the details of the Guardian/Essential poll where voters are none too enthusiastic about the NEG.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/03/voters-sceptical-energy-plan-will-bring-down-bills-guardian-essential-poll-finds
    Meanwhile Canavan has claimed new coal export figures strengthen the investment case for Adani’s Carmichael coalmine and the development of Queensland’s Galilee basin, but a report from his own department appears to show the opposite.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/02/matt-canavans-optimistic-coal-forecast-contradicts-his-own-department
    When a large number of apparently sane people suggest, not only prolonging existing coal-fired power but building more coal-fired power stations, we must consider what is causing the psychosis, writes Dr Graeme McLeay.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-coalitions-coal-infection-is-it-contagious,11653
    NSW is playing funny buggers as Shorten’s pledge to spend $3 billion on a Metro West line between Parramatta and central Sydney has triggered an about-face from Transport Minister Andrew Constance, who has stopped calling on the federal government to help fund the project.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/andrew-constance-s-3-billion-train-backflip-20180702-p4zp1p.html
    The SMH editorial is frustrated that the Coalition is showing signs of trying to turn West Metro into a political football.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/west-metro-deserves-bipartisan-support-20180702-p4zozw.html
    Peter van Onselen tells us why Albo is not the answer for Labor.
    https://outline.com/eKz4Uq
    Top economists are turning more bearish on the housing market at the same time as fund managers fear house price declines could trigger a “nasty cycle”.
    https://outline.com/rDeaVY
    QandA last night was both entertaining and annoying. I thought Hamish McDonald help to remind us how sick of Tony Jones we have become but he let Sarah Henderson dominate the time far too much.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/catherine-king-calls-leyonhjelm-an-utter-d-k-over-hanson-young-comments-20180703-p4zp3m.html
    David Leyonhjelm has used back-to-back TV interviews to double down on sexist comments he made towards Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young in the Senate last week. Catharine King was right. He IS a dick!
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/i-can-call-it-out-leyonhjelm-refuses-to-apologise-in-tv-interviews-20180702-p4zp2t.html
    And Michael Koziol tells us that Sarah Hanson-Young says she has engaged lawyers ahead of potential defamation action against Leyonhjelm over sexual comments about her which have universally been declared appalling.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sarah-hanson-young-threatens-legal-action-over-david-leyonhjelm-s-sexual-comments-20180702-p4zozm.html
    Gay Alcorn comes right out and says this is Australian-style sexism brought to you by a senator and Sky News.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/03/leyonhjelm-hanson-young-sky-australian-style-sexism
    Michelle Grattan says that parliament should care about its reputation even if Leyonhjelm doesn’t value his. Michelle’s disgusted.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-parliament-should-care-about-its-reputation-even-if-leyonhjelm-doesnt-value-his-99225
    And John Birmingham tells us how Sky News became Australia’s Fox News. A cracker of an article!
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/07/02/sky-news-fox-news/
    Simon Benson writes that Tony Abbott has accused Malcolm Turnbull of trying to repeat his failed 2009 attempt to secure a deal with Labor on an emissions trading scheme, and warned that the government is suffering an “ideological fixation” with reducing carbon emissions.
    https://outline.com/JGxguR
    If Malcolm Turnbull’s outrage at the suggestion that he will benefit from his own tax cuts is justified, he can just release his tax returns so we can judge, writes former assistant tax commissioner, John Passant.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/turnbulls-feigned-class-warfare-outrage,11652
    The royal commission into misconduct in finance will investigate concerns of “predatory” behaviour by funeral insurance companies, which have been accused of targeting Indigenous people with unsuitable products.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/predatory-funeral-plans-for-indigenous-australians-under-attack-20180702-p4zp26.html
    The AFR’s Joe Aston reports that IAG’s board is preparing itself for a public relations catastrophe, no less furious than AMP’s, to befall it.
    https://outline.com/vzeTct
    Hypocrisy has never stopped the mainstream media laying into Shorten while wilfully turning a blind eye to the Coalition and “Backflip Bill” rhetoric is just the latest example, writes Noely Neate.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/turnbull-accuses-bill-shorten-of-having-no-authority–with-a-straight-face,11654
    Jeremy Poxon tells us how all across the country unemployed Australians are today bracing themselves for more stress and suffering, as the Coalition unleashes its new needlessly cruel benefit sanctions regime.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/02/the-demerit-system-is-ruthless-social-policy-designed-to-keep-the-poor-powerless
    And business groups, economists and charities are united in their call for an increase in Newstart. Why won’t politicians listen?
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/02/newstarts-hand-to-mouth-existence-cant-go-on-for-another-25-years
    SafeWork SA is wracked by low morale and “change fatigue”, its executive director has revealed, in the first public hearing probing the potential for maladministration and corruption in the agency.
    https://outline.com/YBYN5r
    ExxonMobil has spent $10m fighting Australian tax authorities, including in disputes against the petroleum resources rent tax. ExxonMobil has faced persistent allegations over its tax affairs in Australia. The company has not paid corporate tax since 2013 and does not expect to do so until 2021.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/03/exxonmobil-spent-10m-fighting-australian-tax-office
    The pesticides authority will keep up to 40 staff in Canberra after its move to Armidale, in a decision admitting it will need scientists in the national capital for its troubled relocation to work. Nice work Barnaby!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/apvma-to-keep-up-to-40-staff-in-canberra-after-armidale-move-20180702-p4zozp.html
    Andrew Forrest writes about modern slavery in our supply chains.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-found-slaves-in-our-supply-chain-20180701-p4zow9.html
    Jenna Price says that the NSW has abandoned victims of violence, Aboriginal children, the poor and the homeless.
    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/women-and-aboriginal-children-last-people-abandoned-by-the-nsw-government-20180702-h12559.html
    This could be a deadly month for Theresa May. Unpopular at home and in Brussels, the British leader will try to restore order with a Cabinet lock-in at her country estate that’s been dubbed the “body bag summit”.
    https://outline.com/DSFHz5
    Nicole Hemmer thinks America, under Trump, is heading into an era of permanent protest. A bit scary, really.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/in-the-era-of-trump-americans-take-to-the-streets-in-anger-20180702-p4zoy3.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains how China’s currency has just had its worst month since being established 25 years ago.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/china-s-currency-plunge-raises-one-big-question-20180702-p4zoz9.html
    The UK’s Sunday Telegraph tells us about the IMF’s warning that the economic party is about to come to an end as early as next year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/world-s-economic-party-over-as-warning-signs-flash-red-20180702-p4zoy1.html
    Michael Cohen says his loyalty is with his family, not the President.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/07/03/donald-trump-michael-cohen-lawyer/
    Clementine Ford never thought she’d live to see the day that Triple M took decisive action against one of the sexist troglodytes that make up the majority of its broadcasting line-up, but it looks like cultural change really is possible.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/barry-hall-s-sacking-is-only-the-beginning-of-the-story-20180702-p4zp2o.html
    The government of Nauru has banned the ABC from entering the country to cover the Pacific Islands Forum in September, accusing the broadcaster of interfering in the tiny nation’s domestic politics and harassing its president.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nauru-bans-the-abc-from-covering-pacific-islands-forum-over-blatant-interference-20180702-p4zp1s.html
    Victoria’s beleaguered recycling system will get a $37m lifeline, reducing the amount of material that goes to landfill.
    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/sustainability/state-s-troubled-recycling-system-receives-37-million-rescue-package-20180702-p4zp14.html
    German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer has dropped his threat to quit after hours of talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), saying the two conservative parties had the tightened border controls he was demanding.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/germanys-seehofer-announces-deal-with-merkel-both-survive-20180703-p4zp41.html
    How does Amazon Prime compare to Stan and Netflix?
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/tv/2018/07/02/amazon-prime-video-australia/

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe drops into SkyNews.

    Zanetti is still doing his best for News Ltd.

    As is Jon Kudelka today.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/2f27f1fdd65d15f05648294819280294
    A couple here form Sean Leahy.


    David Pope.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/act/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    More in here, particularly Cathy Wilcox.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-july-3-2018-20180702-h125mc.html

  26. meher baba,
    I’ve tried to keep out of the ongoing PB debate about the polls, but I would observe that the ER result today suggests to me that the apparently falling level of voter enthusiasm for Shorten – from what was never a particularly high starting point – must be a worry for Labor strategists.

    ‘Mr 18%. Why does he bother?’
    That would be, John Howard, one of the longest serving Prime Ministers of Australia and his approval rating as Opposition Leader.

    So, nuts to that theory, mb.

    And, as for the rest of your Coalition-serving thesis about how Bill isn’t cutting through with the electorate, well, that’s what the media have been trying to bake into the consciousness of the people for 5 years now. I am here to give you real world, real time experience that that is not so.

    You see, yesterday I was at Bill Shorten’s media event in Gosford (you would have recognised me, I was the one who looked like Godzilla the C@t in a Labor t-shirt 🙂 ). Now, no one knew he was going to be there except a few of us and the media, yet while I was standing there, and we were outside the train station, so lots of random people passing us by, not one person yelled at Bill with a negative comment when they realised who was there, AND, you wouldn’t believe the number of people who drove by, tooted their car horns and yelled out, “Go Bill!”

    So, it seems as though this, Union proud man-of-the-people stuff IS working with those that count the most. Not the newspaper publishers and the media owners, and the pusillanimous toadies who work for them and churn out the anti Labor bilgewater, day in, day out, for their supper, but with the people who have been keeping Labor at ~52% in the polls against the Coalition for the last 2 years now and just want to vote out this foetid, self-serving, habitat-destroying, inequality-increasing Tory Turnbull government!

  27. Trump Has a Bill That Would Blow Up the WTO. It’s Called the U.S. FART Act.

    Donald Trump hates the status quo system of global trade, multilateral institutions, and constraints on his authority.

    The president has already made a practice of subverting the WTO. His tariffs on steel and aluminum required abusing the “national security” exemption to the organization’s rules — Trump had to claim that cheap Canadian and European metal represented a dire threat to the American homeland. Europe has (understandably) moved to challenge Trump’s case before the WTO, where it is almost certain to win.

    The president likely had such liabilities in mind when he ordered staffers this spring to prepare draft legislation that would (essentially) nullify the WTO’s rules. White House advisers briefed Trump on the resulting “United States Fair and Reciprocal Tariff Act” in late May. Axios briefed the public on a leaked a version of that documented Sunday night; and many, many Twitter users proceeded to “brief” each other on the fact that the White House had named its bill the “U.S. FART Act.”

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/trumps-u-s-fart-act-would-pull-america-out-of-the-wto-united-states-fair-and-reciprocal-tariff-act.html

  28. Benson’s article in today’s Oz on Abbott’s increasingly strident attacks on Turnbull over energy:

    Tony Abbott has accused Malcolm Turnbull of trying to repeat his failed 2009 attempt to secure a deal with Labor on an emissions trading scheme, and warned that the government is suffering an “ideological fixation” with reducing carbon emissions.

    Delivering his most strident attack to date on his government’s own energy policy, the former prime minister has warned Liberal colleagues they risk a repeat of a split that almost destroyed the party a decade ago.

    Less than four weeks before five critical by-elections, Mr Abbott has sought to escalate the internal campaign against the national energy guarantee ahead of a pivotal August meeting of COAG in which the government will seek support from Labor states.

    https://outline.com/JGxguR

    I have a theory that stories in the Oz that Murdoch wants circulated more widely are given a low paywall that is easy to jump. For example, this one.

  29. I’d say Murdoch at 87 yrs old and bagging nearly 20bn us from his asset sale to Disney may be concerned with other priorities above where things sit in the Australians paywall.

  30. This is bullshit!

    If I start a business I can’t say to my suppliers, I’m not going to start paying you until I start to make a profit.

    Everything about this is wrong including the name.

    They’re not renting the resource, they’re taking it and selling it to someone else and for similar reasons it’s not a tax.

    ExxonMobil has spent $10m fighting Australian tax authorities, including in disputes against the petroleum resources rent tax. ExxonMobil has faced persistent allegations over its tax affairs in Australia. The company has not paid corporate tax since 2013 and does not expect to do so until 2021.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/03/exxonmobil-spent-10m-fighting-australian-tax-office

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