After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:
Preselection news:
• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.
• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.
• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.
A few tasks for the Aussie chapter of Wikileaks:
– the sources of IPA funding
– detailed discussions between Big Coal and the COALition parties
– what the * is going on with Adani – why are elements of the Coalition so desperate to see it happen
– White House Collage ‘scholarship’ for Tony Abbott’s daughter
– That ‘side note’ for the cancelled East West Link in Melbourne
– Discussions between the Big Banks and Coalition figures
– Coalition Party discussions regarding asylum seeker policy
– Anything involving Barnaby Joyce and who he’d beholden to.
Women need to get out and vote in the midterms. Women could be the tipping point for Democrats to take back the House and claw back Republican majority in the Senate.
And it’s even more telling when you look at the Republican break down.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-and-women-the-big-disconnect-in-american-politics/2018/07/07/9469bdca-8145-11e8-b9a5-7e1c013f8c33_story.html?utm_term=.d75d0be52391
Seems as if somewhere between four and eight boys have made it through the difficult section. two at least have gone to hospital and four more are past the hard stage and ready to walk out.
It would NOW seem thanks to our very own Aussie Dr Harris that they sent the weakest boys out first. I am very pleased.
Steve777:
Wikileaks is really only interested in advancing Russian anti-US interests.
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/1/6/14179240/wikileaks-russia-ties
You’d think with water such an everpresent threat in one way or another in Thailand, more of it’s citizens would know how to swim!
6 boys are out.
Yeah, 6 out say SKY UK
I cannot imagine being trapped for 2 weeks in a cave.
C@tmomma @ #856 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 7:52 pm
Why would you want to swim in flood waters?
Hmm. They never give up:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-the-online-campaign-to-whitewash-donald-trumps-russian-business-ties?via=newsletter&source=DDMorning
‘Reputation Management’!?! Making the venal seem lily white, more like.
Barney in Go Dau @ #860 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:58 pm
They aren’t always flooded.
And, even in this case, maybe they could have swum out under their own steam before the flooding waters came in and cut them off.
I suspect the divers may take a rest, although there are other teams I guess. they sent in 10 to the zone with the boys with two per boy, Maybe that means they can get 10 out or even all 12. I suspect that they may have a job shifting the coach. Hope not. He must fear for his future.
Fairfax/Ipsos 53-47
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/states-swing-to-labor-in-grim-poll-for-turnbull-20180708-p4zq8h.html
Are there any specialist teams who can rescue “The Turnbull Team” from their dark flooded cave, or are some things too hard even for the world’s best experts?
If they’d known about the imminent arrival of flood waters, I dare say they would have walked out, without need of any swimming capabilities, just as they walked in.
C@tmomma @ #862 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:02 pm
Their is no need in their Society for distance swimming.
If they wish to travel by water they use a boat.
Recreational swimming ability like you are thinking of exists in more affluent Societies not regional Thailand.
“Are there any specialist teams who can rescue “The Turnbull Team” from their dark flooded cave, or are some things too hard even for the world’s best experts?”
As usual, they’ll rely on lies, disinformation, distraction and fear, with the help of expert spin doctors and media allies. Whether that will prove enough remains to be seen. Hopefully not.
So whats the 2PP in this poll by IPSOS and when was it conducted?
Fulvio Sammut @ #868 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:22 pm
It’s not a poll it’s an aggregate over the quarter.
It will be interesting how it compares with Newspoll’s aggregate, William says there could be one this week.
There is a reachtel poll out in the age tomorrow for Victoria.
2pp 51-49 to Labor same as previous newspoll.
primaries :
Labor : 35.4 down 2.5
Coalition : 39.4 down 2.5
Greens : 10.5
One Nation : 3.6
Reason : 0.8
Shooters : 2.8
Aust Conserve : 1
Other : 3
Undecided : 3.5
Other interesting stuff. Vic is in play.
OK, thanks.
michael @ #870 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:39 pm
Is that State or federal voting?
State Poll for Victoria
michael @ #873 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:46 pm
Rex will be pumped up when he sees the support for Reason. 🙂
Victoria won’t even be close: Labor will win it in a canter.
Ghostly just posted a Newspoll 48 lnp/52 alp
Ahh – is quarterly breakdowns
Newspoll quarterlies too
There will be a new post up around 6:30am, for anyone who wants to hold off putting comments up until then.
It will be worth the wait, I promise. There is a Victorian ReachTEL post up in the meantime.
William Bowe @ #878 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 5:49 am
Well, it’s 7.05! 😀
Thanks William I am sure it will be worth waiting for for.
To (miss) quote the CPG:
I am worried for Shorten, if Turnbull doesn’t do well, Shorten may be under leadership pressure
Boerwar
Bless you. The writing and his timing are perfect and with all the misery around, it’s wonderful to laugh.
While we are waiting we can ponder fragile masculinity in the USA baseball
New thread.
“Federal Labor could win up to 16 mainland seats from the Coalition, including two held by Cabinet ministers, and take government with a comfortable majority, according to an aggregate of the first three Fairfax/Ipsos polls published this year.”
https://www.afr.com/news/poll-points-to-16seat-wipeout-for-coalition-20180705-h12buc
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