BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. A few tasks for the Aussie chapter of Wikileaks:
    – the sources of IPA funding
    – detailed discussions between Big Coal and the COALition parties
    – what the * is going on with Adani – why are elements of the Coalition so desperate to see it happen
    – White House Collage ‘scholarship’ for Tony Abbott’s daughter
    – That ‘side note’ for the cancelled East West Link in Melbourne
    – Discussions between the Big Banks and Coalition figures
    – Coalition Party discussions regarding asylum seeker policy
    – Anything involving Barnaby Joyce and who he’d beholden to.

  2. Women need to get out and vote in the midterms. Women could be the tipping point for Democrats to take back the House and claw back Republican majority in the Senate.

    But if the gender gap wasn’t significantly larger in 2016, the reaction to Trump’s election among women appears to be different. He has turned women who voted but had little other political involvement into activists and has turned some activists and non-activists into candidates for office at all levels — federal, state and local. Record numbers of women are running for office this year, and women have organized and led anti-Trump marches in cities across the country since his election.

    The latest Washington Post-Schar School poll, released Friday, highlights the differences in the way women and men see Trump. Overall, the president’s approval rating among men is 54 percent positive and 45 percent negative. Among women, it’s 32 percent positive and 65 percent negative.

    And it’s even more telling when you look at the Republican break down.

    Exploring those approval ratings based on party identification shows this: Among self-identified Republicans, Trump’s approval is 91 percent among men and 82 percent among women. But the gap in intensity of support is what is particularly telling. While 68 percent of male Republicans say they strongly approve of the way Trump is handling his job, just 31 percent of female Republicans say the same — a whopping 37-point difference.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-and-women-the-big-disconnect-in-american-politics/2018/07/07/9469bdca-8145-11e8-b9a5-7e1c013f8c33_story.html?utm_term=.d75d0be52391

  3. Seems as if somewhere between four and eight boys have made it through the difficult section. two at least have gone to hospital and four more are past the hard stage and ready to walk out.

    It would NOW seem thanks to our very own Aussie Dr Harris that they sent the weakest boys out first. I am very pleased.

  4. You’d think with water such an everpresent threat in one way or another in Thailand, more of it’s citizens would know how to swim!

  5. Hmm. They never give up:

    SNEAKY CLEAN
    Inside the Online Campaign to Whitewash the History of Donald Trump’s Russian Business Associates
    Who is paying bloggers on the other side of the globe to scrub the Internet of Trump’s Russian business ties?
    LACHLAN MARKAY
    DEAN STERLING JONES

    A mystery client has been paying bloggers in India and Indonesia to write articles distancing President Donald Trump from the legal travails of a mob-linked former business associate.

    Spokespeople for online reputation management companies in the two countries confirmed that they had been paid to write articles attempting to whitewash Trump’s ties to Felix Sater, a Russian-born businessman who, with former Russian trade minister Tevfik Arif, collaborated with the Trump Organization on numerous real estate deals from New York to the former Soviet Union.

    The campaign appears designed to influence Google search results pertaining to Trump’s relationship with Sater, Arif, and the Bayrock Group, a New York real estate firm that collaborated with Trump on a series of real estate deals, and recruited Russian investors for potential Trump deals in Moscow.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-the-online-campaign-to-whitewash-donald-trumps-russian-business-ties?via=newsletter&source=DDMorning

    ‘Reputation Management’!?! Making the venal seem lily white, more like.

  6. I suspect the divers may take a rest, although there are other teams I guess. they sent in 10 to the zone with the boys with two per boy, Maybe that means they can get 10 out or even all 12. I suspect that they may have a job shifting the coach. Hope not. He must fear for his future.

  7. If they’d known about the imminent arrival of flood waters, I dare say they would have walked out, without need of any swimming capabilities, just as they walked in.

  8. C@tmomma @ #862 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:02 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #860 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:58 pm

    C@tmomma @ #856 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 7:52 pm

    You’d think with water such an everpresent threat in one way or another in Thailand, more of it’s citizens would know how to swim!

    Why would you want to swim in flood waters?

    They aren’t always flooded.

    And, even in this case, maybe they could have swum out under their own steam before the flooding waters came in and cut them off.

    Their is no need in their Society for distance swimming.

    If they wish to travel by water they use a boat.

    Recreational swimming ability like you are thinking of exists in more affluent Societies not regional Thailand.

  9. “Are there any specialist teams who can rescue “The Turnbull Team” from their dark flooded cave, or are some things too hard even for the world’s best experts?”

    As usual, they’ll rely on lies, disinformation, distraction and fear, with the help of expert spin doctors and media allies. Whether that will prove enough remains to be seen. Hopefully not.

  10. There is a reachtel poll out in the age tomorrow for Victoria.
    2pp 51-49 to Labor same as previous newspoll.
    primaries :
    Labor : 35.4 down 2.5
    Coalition : 39.4 down 2.5
    Greens : 10.5
    One Nation : 3.6
    Reason : 0.8
    Shooters : 2.8
    Aust Conserve : 1
    Other : 3
    Undecided : 3.5

    Other interesting stuff. Vic is in play.

  11. michael @ #870 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:39 pm

    There is a reachtel poll out in the age tomorrow for Victoria.
    2pp 51-49 to Labor same as previous newspoll.
    primaries :
    Labor : 35.4 down 2.5
    Coalition : 39.4 down 2.5
    Greens : 10.5
    One Nation : 3.6
    Reason : 0.8
    Shooters : 2.8
    Aust Conserve : 1
    Other : 3
    Undecided : 3.5

    Other interesting stuff. Vic is in play.

    Is that State or federal voting?

  12. Thanks William I am sure it will be worth waiting for for.

    To (miss) quote the CPG:
    I am worried for Shorten, if Turnbull doesn’t do well, Shorten may be under leadership pressure

  13. Boerwar

    Dave Allen:
    A four year old is introduced to god by a nun

    Bless you. The writing and his timing are perfect and with all the misery around, it’s wonderful to laugh.

  14. The woman who was exposed to the nerve agent Novichok in Wiltshire in southern England has died in hospital, British police say.

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