Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Both parties up on the primary vote in the latest Essential poll, which concurs with Newspoll in finding Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings edging upwards and Bill Shorten’s edging down.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, and The Guardian report provides full primary votes for a change: both major parties are up two, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 6%, with the “others” vote presumably well down. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which tell a remarkably similar story to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up one to 43%, his best result since March 2016, and his disapproval is down two to 40%, his best since the eve of the July 2016 election; while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 31% and up one to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out to 42-25, compared with 41-27 last time.

The Essential poll also finds only 15% of respondents expect the government’s national energy guarantee will reduce power prices, compared with 22% for increasing them (down nine since the same question was asked last October) and 38% for making no difference (up seven). The government’s proposed tax cuts for big companies have 41% support, up four on a month or so ago, with 36% opposed, down one. Further on company tax cuts, The Australian has a comprehensive set of further results from the weekend’s Newspoll, which find respondents tending to be persuaded that the cuts will be good for employment (50% responded cuts would create more jobs versus 36% who said they would not, and 43% believed repealing them would put jobs at risk versus 37% saying they would not), yet 52% supported Bill Shorten saying cuts for businesses with $10 million to $50 million turnover would be repeated if won office, versus only 37% opposed.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. C@tmomma @ #2049 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:44 pm

    Grenell, like Trump an avid Twitter user, defended himself. “I stand by my comments that we are experiencing an awakening from the silent majority – those who reject the elites & their bubble. Led by Trump.”

    Ah yes, the “silent majority” who gave Trump…3 million fewer votes than his opponent. Sounds like the same “silent majority” that showed up to vote against marriage equality.

    Why must conservatives be so bad at basic math?

  2. The US Ambassador to Germany deserved to be declared persona non grata, but that could have had unpredictable consequences which the Germans probably want to avoid. We should be grateful that the US still hasn’t put in place some Trumpian idiot as Ambassador in Canberra: the Embassy is being led by a Charge d’Affaires who can be presumed to be from the State Department, and therefore house-trained.

  3. a r @ #2050 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:52 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2049 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:44 pm

    Grenell, like Trump an avid Twitter user, defended himself. “I stand by my comments that we are experiencing an awakening from the silent majority – those who reject the elites & their bubble. Led by Trump.”

    Ah yes, the “silent majority” who gave Trump…3 million fewer votes than his opponent. Sounds like the same “silent majority” that showed up to vote against marriage equality.

    Why must conservatives be so bad at basic math?

    I know, it’s like, hey! a few people got my phone number and contacted me, so that means there’s a conservative resurgence across Europe going on!

  4. If those people weren’t so dangerous, they’d be funny.

    Night all. The fight against them continues tomorrow. 🙂

  5. “Why must conservatives be so bad at basic math?”

    Maths is a left wing plot. If a conservative believes something to be true, it is. All they have to do is assert it loudly and often, preferably with the help of media mates. If anyone “proves” you wrong, assert it louder and longer and have media mates attack the unbeliever as a communist/ heretic / terrorist / whatever…

  6. Some of the crazy things Trump is doing, you’d almost believe he’d teamed up with the likes of Putin and Kim, dissed his allies, sucked up to his country’s enemies, betrayed the people who voted for him, nobbled the press and had sown surfeit, cloyment and revolt everywhere quite deliberatel—– oh, wait…

  7. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/07/03/essential-research-52-48-labor-20/comment-page-41/#comment-2828034

    The key difference between being a junior ally of the US and/or UK and a junior ally of China is that the UK and USA are democracies and China is a one party dictatorship. That does have an effect on freedom within an alliance, especially for a wealthy nation like Australia. There is also the likely coming rise of India to consider, giving hope for a continued upper hand for democracy.

  8. Of course, if you are a right winger and a “fact” supports what you want to do, for example “tax cuts will create jobs”, said fact doesn’t actually have to be true. You just need to get enough people to believe it while silencing the unbelievers. After all, Maths has its place, for example to calculate how much of your profits you can hide in the Caribbean, but all that fancy maths involving calculus and vectors and especially statistics was invented by elite acedemic types who might have thought there were more important things than maximising your after-tax income.

  9. Steve777, David Crowe had a novel one this morning: Labor was using far too many decimal places in its estimates of the size of the government’s Health cuts to Caboolture, so they were clearly making those figures up.

    On the other hand, ScoMo’s GST magic pudding’s funding was not criticised by Crowe at all.

    When you look at the brilliant simplicity of ScoMo’s solution – why didn’t someone think of just paying the states more money to solve the problem of them not being paid enough money before? – you are staggered by the self-evident quality of the thinking behind it.

    No wonder Mr Crowe was stunned into silence.

  10. Protection Racket for the fascists:

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    17m17 minutes ago

    Social Services Minister Dan Tehan wants a ‘religious discrimination act’ to stop ‘creeping encroachment from the state’.

    @JaneMarwick: It’s interesting that it’s Dan Tehan, He might be the best person to convince the PM.

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2BuFqi1 #HeadsUp

  11. “On the other hand, ScoMo’s GST magic pudding’s funding was not criticised by Crowe at all.”

    It really does suggest that the Coalition is held to a different standard. There appears to have been a moderate filip in budget numbers – although maybe there wasn’t. Who knows? I don’t believe anything the Treasurer says. If true, Scott apparently miscalculated his numbers. So is he being decried as being incompetent? No worries, he declares victory, assumes the stimulus will last forever and commits to throwing away tens of billions in revenue in tax cuts, mostly to business mates with a bone to ordinary voters. And this is touted as sound financial management? But nobody in the media asks.

  12. a r @ #2051 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 7:52 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2049 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:44 pm

    Grenell, like Trump an avid Twitter user, defended himself. “I stand by my comments that we are experiencing an awakening from the silent majority – those who reject the elites & their bubble. Led by Trump.”

    Ah yes, the “silent majority” who gave Trump…3 million fewer votes than his opponent. Sounds like the same “silent majority” that showed up to vote against marriage equality.

    Why must conservatives be so bad at basic math?

    Maths is the basis of all science.

    Enough said!!!! 🙂

  13. In the above documentary,, foreign affairs expert Fareed Zakaria explains that Putin felt humiliated by the collapse of the Soviet Union. This has motivated his hatred of western democracies and his rise to brutal authoritarian leader.

  14. Just coming back to PB after a trio to real life, so I don’t know whether the following grenade has already been tossed.

    In view of both Leyonhjelm’s and John Edwards recent actions, the time has come to ban, criminalise and devalue all private ownership of pistols in Australia.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *