Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Both parties up on the primary vote in the latest Essential poll, which concurs with Newspoll in finding Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings edging upwards and Bill Shorten’s edging down.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, and The Guardian report provides full primary votes for a change: both major parties are up two, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 6%, with the “others” vote presumably well down. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which tell a remarkably similar story to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up one to 43%, his best result since March 2016, and his disapproval is down two to 40%, his best since the eve of the July 2016 election; while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 31% and up one to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out to 42-25, compared with 41-27 last time.

The Essential poll also finds only 15% of respondents expect the government’s national energy guarantee will reduce power prices, compared with 22% for increasing them (down nine since the same question was asked last October) and 38% for making no difference (up seven). The government’s proposed tax cuts for big companies have 41% support, up four on a month or so ago, with 36% opposed, down one. Further on company tax cuts, The Australian has a comprehensive set of further results from the weekend’s Newspoll, which find respondents tending to be persuaded that the cuts will be good for employment (50% responded cuts would create more jobs versus 36% who said they would not, and 43% believed repealing them would put jobs at risk versus 37% saying they would not), yet 52% supported Bill Shorten saying cuts for businesses with $10 million to $50 million turnover would be repeated if won office, versus only 37% opposed.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. “I for one still read The West. ”

    I flip through it in the café waiting for coffee, or in the coffee room at work but anytime I run into a Bolt page I slam it shut and swear about that. The back page and a couple in I find safe, and sometimes even informative. If I even run into a media consumption survey I deny all of the above and say I never touch it or see it, and I even question whether I know it exists.

  2. WWP

    I suspect an ever increasing number of people don’t have to deny they know The West exists, they don’t know it does.

  3. “I suspect an ever increasing number of people don’t have to deny they know The West exists, they don’t know it does.”

    And they are the lucky ones …

  4. And yes I know lots of very hard working exploited cruelly young journos rely on the west and just as bad propaganda outlets to try and build a legitimate genuine journalism career. And like any dying institution I feel greatly for these noble young victims. But the height of success in their current profession is Sean Hannity, and well they have to own that. Maybe if enough of them are revolted by the fact their industry is led by disgusting propagandists they can tackle the problem, but until they do … they are part of the problem not the solution …

  5. booleanbach @ #1992 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 6:28 pm

    What publication(s) can we read to find out about things in WA if not the West Australian?

    Your sentence contains a logical fallacy. Most of the time, upon reading the West Australian, the reader becomes less informed than they were before.

    The West Australian, having never reached any great stature of journalism even during its heydey, is now a dried out husk comprised mostly of advertisements with the occasional story between them. Just when I thought that the West could not get any more debauched I noticed that it was publishing the ramblings of Mr Bolt and Ms Devine.

    Its year on year circulation figures for the end of March 2018 fell ~12% for both weekday and weekend.

    In response to your question, there is not yet an answer as to how people are going to keep informed about goings on in Western Australia, something which is not good for democracy or society as a whole.

  6. Rossmcg @ #1997 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 6:38 pm

    It still covers local news, in an amazingly parochial fashion by some standards, but WA is like that.

    On that, I’m an Eagles fan that found himself at the Dockers game last week. The difference between the crowds is stark and I see what those from the East are complaining about when they talk about Eagles crowds. The Dockers crowds are partisan but reasonable, West Coast crowds are several orders of magnitude more partisan and completely unreasonable when a decision goes against the Eagles.

  7. The West Australian, having never reached any great stature of journalism even during its heydey, is now a dried out husk comprised mostly of advertisements with the occasional story between them.

    We get the West at work, but nobody reads it except for the footy section and to see if Rob Broadfield had a restaurant review in the weekend paper.

    Even the West online has gone to the dogs, almost devoid of actual news these days.

  8. Grimace

    West Coast fans v Fremantle fans … lets no go there …

    Your other point though about democracy being diminished is well made.

    This being an essentially political forum people rail against the media’s coverage of politics. There is much more to the media than politics, as I often say about the ABC.

    And like the footy, bias is sometimes the eye of the beholder.

    But would be we having a royal commission into banking, or inquiries into wages theft, or the franchise industry, or bent coppers or any number of other things without the work of journalists.

    There are plenty of people, many of them at the high levels of government and business and the low levels of crime, who are only too happy to see the demise of print media.

    We might not always like the questions that are asked, or the way the answers are reported, but there are questions being asked.

  9. ESJ

    At the current rate of circulation free fall they’ll run out of money or it’s owner will tire of subsidising it’s operations and they’ll go under.

  10. As far as The West’s future is concerned you need bear in mind that is it owned by Seven West Media and as such plays an important role in promotion of the main show in Perth, channel seven.

    There has been much speculation about the SMH and The Age’s future as hard copy papers, which I think is more likely to be closer to the mark.

    And of course how long The Australian will last after Rupert shuffles off is another big question.

  11. With approximately 50% of the population voting either left or right, give or take, why do these journalists and editors think there is any benefit in pouring bile and vitriol, and telling lies and spreading propaganda consistently against only one side?

    You lose half your business right there.

    Unless of course, you are not running a business, but acting as a propaganda outlet for the side you favour or wish to make beholden to you, a la Murdoch.

    Either way, in a small market like Perth, you go under, or are ignored for the joke you are.

  12. Mike Walker@New_Narrative
    49m49 minutes ago
    Kremlin officials are negotiating with Washington to strike at least one deal Trump can tout after his Putin summit

    Putin is throwing his toy poodle a bone. How sweet.

  13. I see the ABC is ditching a consumer rights tv show. Clearly that service is being amply delivered by the informercials on commercial morning tv.

  14. Simon² Katich® @ #2026 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 7:55 pm

    I see the ABC is ditching a consumer rights tv show. Clearly that service is being amply delivered by the informercials on commercial morning tv.

    Yes I just saw that on Facebook. I have to say I’d never heard of the program so have no idea how useful it was to your average Australian.

  15. Fess. It was presented by two strong interesting and funny female presenters (and a coupla others). Can’t have helped.

    If only Tom Switzer was presenting it….

  16. Oi, Katich, the West may be low grade toilet paper, but it’s OUR toilet paper!

    It’s likely all the same toilet paper with local re-badging and some local content, supporting local teams in the local sport – Daily Telecrap, Herald Sun, Courier Mail and, I suppose, The West.

  17. “So you want to abolish the jobs of journalists wwp? Please explain?”

    No I think propagandists and apologists for them are destroying real journalism, and if journalism doesn’t find a way to distinguish between good and evil, doesn’t find a way to recognise that ‘her emails’ was embarrassing (to journalism) and Donald’s racism, business criminality and organised crime link and his Russian subservience was the real issue / story (regardless of which party Donald or Hillary is in) then they serve no useful purpose, and in fact aid evil. Now if they are aiding evil and working against good, they are enemies of freedom, justice and democracy and not defenders of it.

    It can be quite complex, I wouldn’t for a second expect you to understand.

  18. Newspapers have always flirted with propaganda and sensationalism.

    These days they have ditched the flirting and opened a brothel.

  19. The only good thing about Australian newspapers being low grade toilet paper, is that Malcolm Turnbull’s photograph features so prominently and frequently on them.

  20. The hits just keep coming for the alt-right white nationalists, and even better while he was en route to address a young white nationalist gathering.

    Don’t these bourgeois Europeans know who they are?!

    Mike Walker@New_Narrative
    1h1 hour ago
    Alt-right leader Richard Spencer blocked from entering Europe, ordered to return to US: report

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/395745-richard-spencer-confirms-ban-on-traveling-to-european-countries

  21. Fess. It was nothing special. Just good honest informative TV with a little light entertainment thrown in.

    Didn’t stand a chance against Guthries sword.

  22. @Peg

    It probably wouldn’t be too hard to break into anything Australian owns anyway.

    Every day there is new breaches, but you and media just attack Chinese, as a scapegoat.

    Blame the Chinese for steeling technology like USA has done.

    We just dumb pawns for USA.

  23. Confessions @ #2034 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:15 pm

    The hits just keep coming for the alt-right white nationalists, and even better while he was en route to address a young white nationalist gathering.

    Don’t these bourgeois Europeans know who they are?!

    Mike Walker@New_Narrative
    1h1 hour ago
    Alt-right leader Richard Spencer blocked from entering Europe, ordered to return to US: report

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/395745-richard-spencer-confirms-ban-on-traveling-to-european-countries

    The US Ambassador to Germany will NOT be pleased! He wanted to spend his time there fostering this sort of divisive individual.

  24. From the NYTimes morning (evening) wrap:

    Yet the worst thing about Pruitt’s tenure still wasn’t his personal corruption. It was his aggressive campaign to aggravate global warming, by rolling back federal attempts to combat it. Pruitt’s career — from Oklahoma attorney general to E.P.A. administrator — has been defined by his attempt to maximize the profits of energy companies, regardless of the effects on everyone else.

    That attitude will almost certainly outlast Pruitt, unfortunately. It is effectively the official policy of the Trump administration. You can expect many more heat waves in the years to come.

    His resignation letter was filled with references to god suggesting he doesn’t think AGW could possibly be real because only god actions and then sanctions the things that befall our planet. People like Pruitt really do belong back in the stone age and nowhere near the levers of public policy. Unfortunately his successor is just as bad.

  25. “We just dumb pawns for USA.”

    Since Federation we have just been dumb pawns for either the UK or the US, we are still subservient to the Hereditary Head of State of the UK for f*cks sake. It is why I can’t understand why being a subservient state to China as the new most prominent power to us is any worse than the US / UK bending the knee stance we’ve maintained constantly. The way Ulhmann and some of those morons write you’d think we’d always been a strong proud independent nation rather than a bootlicker but that is just not our history.

  26. Steve777,
    Sydney and Melbourne will fight it out for the wooden spoon of being the most populous and congested.

    And Sydney will always win because of the number of bays and beaches, hills and valleys, mountains and rivers you have to cross to get anywhere!

  27. In all seriousness, the difference between America and Europe gets down to one basic thing. Europe has experienced, first hand, the dread hand of fascism. America has not. So it’s understandable that Europe wants no truck with the Americans toying with it.

  28. We, in Australia, are certainly replete with our own antediluvian Climate Change recalcitrants.

    Speaking of which, I hope Matt Canavan isn’t allowed to filibuster and circular breathe his way, uninterrupted, through QandA on Monday night.

  29. Confessions @ #2045 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:35 pm

    C@t:

    I was thinking of the US Ambassador to Estonia who resigned because of Trump’s numpytness.

    It’s this guy:

    In an interview with alt-right website Breitbart News London published at the weekend, Grenell, who assumed his post in May, said, “There are a lot of conservatives throughout Europe who have contacted me to say they are feeling there is a resurgence going on.”

    “I absolutely want to empower other conservatives throughout Europe,” he said. “I think there is a groundswell of conservative policies that are taking hold because of the failed policies of the left.”

    …”Clearly the US ambassador sees himself as an extension of a right-wing conservative world movement,” he said. Muetzenich added that Grenell’s actions violated the 1961 Vienna Convention, under which diplomats do not interfere in the domestic affairs of a country.

    Grenell, like Trump an avid Twitter user, defended himself. “I stand by my comments that we are experiencing an awakening from the silent majority – those who reject the elites & their bubble. Led by Trump.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/new-us-ambassador-to-germany-stirs-the-pot-to-the-right-20180605-p4zjnd.html

    Another obsequious Trump sycophant. You can almost hear him say, ‘Heil Trump! Mein Fuhrer!’

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