After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:
Preselection news:
• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.
• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.
• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.
It’s an ill wind blowing in from the West in Victoria this morning.Batten down the hatches and lower the sails.
Same same
Russian officials and state media mock ‘weak’ GOP senators after Moscow visit
Russian broadcasters mocked the Republican lawmakers who visited Moscow over the Fourth of July holiday and gloated about the Kremlin’s role in electing President Donald Trump.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/russian-officials-state-media-mock-weak-gop-senators-moscow-visit/
Paul Krugman rips ‘pathetic’ big business as it finally starts to realize the problem with supporting Trump
The Washington Post reports that U.S. tariffs on China are set to go into effect on Friday, and China plans to respond in kind. If the retaliation escalates, we’ll be in a full-on trade war
As Paul Krugman explained in a New York Times op-ed Thursday, big business is finally reaping what it has sowed. And we can tell big business is nervous because leaders are finally speaking out against Trump’s tariffs.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/paul-krugman-rips-pathetic-big-business-finally-starts-realize-problem-supporting-trump/
Batten down the hatches!
A full-blown Trade War is coming!
It’s an ill-wind that blows no good!
God bless Paul Krugman’s cotton socks! He has brought back the words that political parties like Labor need to start using again as well as ‘Trickle Down Economics’:
‘Voodoo Economics’!
It worked against Thatcher and Reagan, eventually, and it can work here against Turnbull & Morrison:
(‘growing the pie’,anyone?)
The rest of the article is similarly clear-eyed:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/05/opinion/trade-war-trump-business-jobs.html
Krugman:
What do I mean by cynical politics? Partly I mean the tacit alliance between businesses and the wealthy, on one side, and racists on the other, that is the essence of the modern conservative movement.
*cough* Peter Dutton * Malcolm Turnbull.
I was disgusted yesterday to see the Vic Opposition claiming the safe injecting rooms were “a failure” after one week.
Great quote C@t – just tweeted with the tagging of our illustrious *management team*
Really?
Voodoo economics ? If only the Repug voters listened to George Dubya’s dad instead of @$@$# Ronnie Ray Gun. ‘Voodoo economics ‘It just isn’t gunna work”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QV4TCUAcPes
Trickle Down is actually Vacuum Up.
This should be Labor’s campaign slogan.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Pick the bones out of this lot!
Victoria Cross recipient Ben Roberts-Smith is one of a small number of soldiers subject to investigation by a quasi-judicial inquiry looking into the actions of Australian special forces soldiers in Afghanistan.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/vc-winner-ben-roberts-smith-among-subjects-of-defence-investigation-20180704-p4zpho.html
Mark Kenny with a good article on all the think tanks Australia has.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/think-tanks-when-too-much-policy-analysis-is-barely-enough-20180622-p4zn2w.html
Peter van Onselen has a good contribution in which he says that with more and more self-described conservatives taking their lead from Donald Trump, both in style and substance, it’s worth highlighting how fundamentally unconservative Trump’s approach to politics really is. He extends this thinking to Abbott and Hanson.
https://outline.com/vp7zfR
Paul Bongiorno tells us about Abbott’s latest demolition job.
https://outline.com/mY4a6V
A frustrated Malcolm Knox writes that TV rights are killing access to the world’s biggest sporting event.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/fifa-world-cup-2018/tv-rights-killing-access-to-the-world-s-biggest-sporting-event-20180705-p4zpst.html
Jess Irvine examines the work of the Commonwealth Grants Commission.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-anonymous-public-servants-who-divvy-up-gst-revenue-20180706-p4zpxq.html
The rather pathetic Dan Tehan has called for a religious discrimination act to provide greater protections to people of faith, in a move that raises the stakes for the Turnbull government as it responds to a key review of religious freedoms.
https://outline.com/y5RqMH
Wendy Squires tells us about women’s fertility countdown.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/i-was-well-aware-my-fertility-had-a-use-by-date-20180705-p4zpns.html
“Dutton is no fascist!” screams Gerard Henderson. And nor is Trump.
https://outline.com/eUCtu8
And in yet another court loss a 14-year-old refugee girl who had attempted suicide on Nauru by trying to set herself on fire will be moved to Australia within days.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/07/refugee-girl-at-risk-of-suicide-to-be-moved-from-nauru-to-australia-after-court-action
The Turnbull government’s policy of reducing support for asylum seekers living in Australia has left refugee advocates fearing political ideology will leave people homeless.
https://outline.com/uNLH6h
Ross Gittins explains the complicated way in which governments shift income form the rich to the poor.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/cash-and-kind-how-governments-shift-income-from-rich-to-poor-20180706-p4zpui.html
Is Turnbull going to put the Foxtel in the hen house?
https://outline.com/jaRhEK
Norm Abjorensen wonders if, under the attack of hostile forces, the ABC will come to an end.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/the-end-of-aunty-20180627-p4zo1d.html
Donald Trump will almost entirely avoid London during his four-day visit to the UK next week, Downing Street has said, unveiling an itinerary that is likely to prompt accusations he is trying to avoid planned protests against him.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/06/donald-trump-to-avoid-london-during-uk-visit
Crispin Hull writes on how opinion and fact diverge as Abbott weighs in on climate change…again! He says Abbott scores zero for critical thinking and zero for understanding the scientific method.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/opinion-and-fact-diverge-as-abbott-weighs-in-on-climate-change-again-20180706-p4zpxa.html
NFF president Fiona Simpson writes about the NEG and agriculture.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/turnbull-s-energy-policy-is-the-only-game-in-town-20180706-p4zpvh.html
Karen Middleton unloads on the sexism in the Senate.
https://outline.com/YSNvvR
Elizabeth Minter explains the double punishment of many prisoners. There is much to consider here.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/debt-trap-people-imprisoned-for-crime-are-being-punished-twice-20180705-p4zplh.html
Michael Koziol reports that family size would be taken into account when calculating school funding under a radical plan to use parents’ income to determine a school’s wealth for the first time.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/family-size-to-impact-funding-in-radical-reform-plan-for-private-schools-20180706-p4zpy6.html
Take the time to read this Jack Waterford contribution in which he examines parliamentary behaviour and how the upcoming review of the APS should be focussed.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/parliamentary-bile-finds-its-own-level-20180706-p4zpyl.html
Tony Walker weighs in on Leyonhjelm and Hanson.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/leyonhjelm-stoush-isn-t-good-for-anybody-except-maybe-leyonhjelm-20180705-p4zpnu.html
Mike Seccombe unpacks the dark politics of the Timor spy case.
https://outline.com/jPMjdN
Independent pharmacists say they have been caught off guard by the Chemist Warehouse model.
https://outline.com/XYAcMn
Two funeral insurance businesses may have broken the law, the royal commission into misconduct in banking and financial services has been told. Talk about spivs!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/funeral-insurers-may-have-broken-law-commission-hears-20180706-p4zq0i.html
https://outline.com/5NzuLx
Fresh allegations of misconduct have been levelled at ANZ, Bendigo Bank, Commonwealth Bank and Rabobank for their dealings with farmers, on the final day of public hearings for the Hayne royal commission in Darwin.
https://outline.com/JJx7dt
The Royal Commission revealed financial services woes for many Indigenous customers. Here’s what can be done.
https://theconversation.com/the-royal-commission-revealed-financial-services-woes-for-many-indigenous-customers-heres-what-can-be-done-99374
James Frost tells us how Macquarie avoided a roasting at the banking royal commission.
https://outline.com/G4Re62
The Saturday Paper’s Matt Garrick writes on how there appears to be a deliberate push to sell funeral plans into Indigenous communities points to a culture of exploiting the vulnerable by insurance companies.
https://outline.com/zjgr2x
Theresa May has secured approval to negotiate a soft Brexit deal with the European Union, signing up her fractious cabinet at a Chequers away day to what had been a controversial plan to match EU standards on food and goods.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/06/theresa-may-secures-approval-from-cabinet-to-negotiate-soft-brexit
Jill Abramson implores Democrats to Trump’s supreme court pick tooth and nail.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/06/democrats-fight-trump-supreme-court-merrick-garlan
Caitlin Fitzsimons argues why the school day should start later.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/school-day-start-later-caitlin-fitzsimmons-20180706-p4zpyi.html
Richard Wolffe farewells Scott Pruitt, the worst EPA administrator of all time.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/05/worst-epa-administrator-scott-pruitt
Leaked early analysis of the Liberals flagship infrastructure project GlobeLink says it could double freight costs, increase travelling time and threaten the viability of Adelaide airport.
https://outline.com/NM4MLE
France’s market watchdog is bracing for a surge in global bond yields and a Wall Street crash as soon as this year, fearing that contagion will spread to Europe and snuff out the fragile recovery.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/risk-of-brutal-correction-in-global-stock-markets-20180706-p4zptb.html
Australia led the world in the total power of storage batteries installed in 2017, helped by a surge in residential battery installations supporting rooftop solar systems, a new report finds.
https://outline.com/RVBVCb
Former NSW Premier and Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr is a passionate environmental advocate. In an interview with Sue Arnold, he says he can’t keep up with the destruction of his home State under the Berejiklian Government.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/bob-carr-dismayed-by-berejiklians-environmental-destruction,11666
If you own Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency be warned. The ATO is coming after you. It has classed these instruments as property, not currency.
https://outline.com/AEny2g
Several financial advisers scrambling to secure a new operating licence following the shock shutdown of Dover Financial Group have claimed in a letter to the corporate watchdog that the disgraced firm planned to transfer their clients to another practice without their consent.
https://outline.com/FuUNXD
Joanne McCarthy writes that child sexual abuse survivor Peter Gogarty has gone straight to the Pope with a plea for him to sack Archbishop Philip Wilson, and an offer to discuss the reasons why over the phone.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/dark-secret-child-abuse-survivor-s-plea-to-pope-20180706-p4zpya.html
Meanwhile the deputy principal of a Melbourne Catholic school is facing fresh allegations of producing child pornography following his arrest in March.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-deputy-principal-charged-with-producing-child-porn-20180706-p4zpy3.html
Michael West explains homelessness, government outsourcing and “getting kids off the books”
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/homelessness-government-outsourcing-and-getting-kids-off-the-books/
Amanda Meade points the finger at SkyNews and its disgusting presenters.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/jul/06/who-at-sky-takes-the-heat-for-leyonhjelm-debacle-a-young-producer
Australian consumers have been warned not to trust the “worst” resale ticket scalping offenders – websites Viagogo, Seatwave and StubHub.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/consumer/2018/07/06/ticket-scalping-websites/
Cartoon Corner
David Pope farewells Pruitt.
Make David has a couple of good ones today.
Zanetti channels Norman Lindsay.
David Pope and the upcoming Trump/Putin meeting.
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/1197c28e95aa9d54f116d7426917acc1d1aaab07
Jon Kudelka has Birmingham in the corner.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/bc15a6cbb62ee9253aa67ff07f4de2ab
More in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-july-7-2018-20180706-h12d5h.html
I am wondering why the Thai rescuers haven’t run a hose into the cave with coloured smoke (or something) to test whether there is an exit – the smoke would emerge outside and they could isolate the emission point/s to see if there is better access.
I’m not a geological engineer, obviously, but I would have thought they’d have done that sort of testing.
Or maybe they have?
Thanks for that Cameron. No Real Time today so I’ll watch that instead.
jenauthor
Yesterday we were told that the trapped boys could hear cocks crowing and dogs barking, but the hills are too steep and rough to establish the source of the sounds. (source, ABC reporter).
Interesting report in the afr today about how labor is offering double the spending of the lnp in Braddon and longman.
It also talks about labor mps saying there will be “a conversation” about shortens leadership post by elections should he lose one or both seats.
Yet bludgertrack says there is a 2pp swing of 5.6 to labor in qld on. Although on closer inspection this appears to be all regional qld.
Thanks BK.
I wonder if people in the UK *really* want to leave the EU? I wonder if voters weren’t carried away by the drama of the referendum and woke up the next day wondering what the hell they’d done. Kind of like the next morning after a big night.
What a filthy bunch of pricks we have running the place. So contemptuous of us they do not even bother to pretend.
jenauthor @ #10 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 7:49 am
Thanks for that, jen. 🙂
Tag team against the Tories!
John Falzon making a bid for the new 3rd seat for the ACT. He is truly a great warrior for social justice, and would advance the progressive cause in Parliament.
‘Labor’s preselection process is expected to take place in August, however, Dr Falzon must first seek the endorsement of the party’s left faction.
Nominations open on Wednesday and the faction will vote the following week.
Dr Falzon has dedicated his working life battling social exclusion, economic insecurity, inequality, housing, health, workers’ rights, and employment and welfare reform.
It’s something he learnt from his Maltese-born parents, while living in his uncle’s garage in Blacktown, after the family emigrated from London in the 1960s.
He watched as his working class parents strove to give their children better opportunities, while they themselves faced restricted job prospects.
Their hard work paid off when Dr Falzon became the first person in his family to attend university, and he later completed a doctorate in social analysis.
Through his career, he has worked in academia, community development, research and advocacy, and served on a number of boards, including the Australian Council of Social Services, and Australian Social Inclusion Board.
His work has been recognised through a number of awards, including an Order of Australia Medal in 2015, and as a Australian Human Rights Medal finalist in 2014.
He has been national chief executive of the St Vincent de Paul Society since 2006.
Dr Falzon said he wanted to enter parliament as he believed in the “collective project to bring about a more just society”.
“It can’t be a pipe dream, it is only something governments can deliver, you need legislation to ensure that change,” he said.
“The kind of society Australians want to live in is a fair one. Opportunities shouldn’t depend on the size of your wallet, society should look out for everyone.
“It is important to have legislators in parliament who stand in solidarity with those seeking social change.”
Dr Falzon said neoliberalism under the current government meant “arming the bullies with sticks and telling the victims to stand still”.
He nominated tax and education as two areas that had re-framed to reward the wealthy.
“To those who already have much, more will be given.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/canberra-news/vinnies-boss-john-falzon-seeks-nomination-for-new-seat-of-canberra-20180706-p4zq0k.html
It’s a game of economic chicken and a game I can’t see the US winning.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/china-joins-a-growing-list-of-countries-to-brush-off-trumps-trade-threats/2018/07/06/18ff1ef2-8067-11e8-b660-4d0f9f0351f1_story.html?utm_term=.238ff520035f
John Falzon – what does he get paid by Vinnies to “advocate for the poor” sprocket.
Always funny to see someone earning more than 200k loudly proclaiming how their an advocate for the poor.
How does a self proclaimed labor hack continue to run a non political charity – surely he has to resign immediately ?
…
Donald Trump will almost entirely avoid London during his four-day visit to the UK next week, Downing Street has said, unveiling an itinerary that is likely to prompt accusations he is trying to avoid planned protests against him.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/06/donald-trump-to-avoid-london-during-uk-visit?CMP=twt_gu&__twitter_impression=true
Whisperings that Jane Garrett may nominate for Jagajaga now that Jenny Macklin is retiring.
Oh noes, no more talk of running dogs for the Imperialist drive against North Korea
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2018/07/05/8581530806695/
ESJ
Exhibiting some class envy? Murdochism 101.
I’d love to know what the Russians have over today’s Republicans. It obviously isn’t just Donald Trump who is indebted.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eight-republicans-spent-july-4-in-russia-where-are-the-fireworks/2018/07/06/beae30be-812e-11e8-b658-4f4d2a1aeef1_story.html?utm_term=.6736cec3003c
Not really sprocket, hypocrites who pretend their fighting for the poor whilst leading a champagne lifestyle are disgusting.
Despite being ‘boned’ by the QLD LNP preselectors, who promoted a butcher shop owner above Big Barry, I suspect his string of negatively geared properties will be some consolation for his time with his nose in the trough.
Barry could also have a chat with his mate James Ashby, who he famously connected up with some ‘pro bono’ lawyers to do the stitch up of Peter Slipper.
I just took a look at the detailed figures of the Latest Bludgertrack update. Quite remarkable really that it is still projecting a nineteen seat gain to Labor, even after the adjustment to its calculations to accommodate the vagaries of the PHON preference flows (and Newspoll’s adjustment for the same reason).
I’m not convinced on the Queensland figures though. It’s hard to credit that Labor will take eight seats from the Liberals in that state with everything that’s been going on. Even so, Bludgertrack has a remarkably accurate record since its inception (about a 1% MOE I think William has said) so it does give one a big lift in spirits on a cold, wind blown, rainy day here in Melbourne.
ESJ
We can’t have kids from migrant families reaching above their station, can we. You are pathetic parroting Liberal old money lines.
Good suggestion C@t. You have contacts in the Labor party. Perhaps you can get the message through to them.
Shhh Darn … you’ll hurt the feelings of some resident trolls by remarking on the hopelessness of the LNP cause
Yeah nah sprocket.
So the charity regulator reveals:
The vinnies National office has employee expenses of 985k in 2017 and 9 employees as well as executive expenses of 85k.
Now maybe it’s all very socialist and everybody including the receptionist gets paid 100k or maybe someone is getting very well paid advocating for “the poor”.
The top 15 likely Democrat Potus candidates, ranked.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/07/06/the-top-15-democratic-presidential-candidates-for-2020-ranked-3/?utm_term=.0027f4dd974d&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1
My faves:
Mitch Landrieu
Kamala Harris
Cory Booker
Kirsten Gillibrand
I remember seeing MT handing a piddly $5 to a homeless person.
That’d be like the rest of us cutting a 5 cent piece into tenths and giving said homeless person a second to sniff it – for all the effect that level of charity would have had on MTs purse strings
Darn
GWH Bush used the term Voodoo Economic against Reagan in 1980. I don’t think we can afford to wait as long as we did to get rid of Ronny and Maggie T.
Cory Booker is very impressive from what I have seen
jenauthor
With a camera close by.
Perhaps we’re misjudging MT. Perhaps he went around the city giving $5 to every homeless person there.
Or perhaps not.
Ides of March.not logged in says:
Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 8:39 am
Whisperings that Jane Garrett may nominate for Jagajaga now that Jenny Macklin is retiring.
Good to hear after the shameful way she has been treated by Daniel Andrews and the UFU.
The Liberals love people being “aspirational”. Some people aspire to become wealthy and powerful. Others aspire to improve society.
jenauthor @ #15 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 8:06 am
Someone did it from the top I think.
But I guess that they have more urgent things to do like getting in air and food . The depletion of the oxygen levels suggests that there is not some easy flow of air
Yeah citizen I just reckon you should be more critical then accepting an article in the Canberra Times unquestionably. The Charity Regulator tells you the true story, sprocket threw in a red herring there to hide his embarrasment.
It will be interesting to see what happens now, given that the recently appointed head of ACNC is ex-IPA.
Do you know for a fact that Falzon spends whatever it is that he earns on a “champagne lifestyle”?
Happy for you to delete my post William – I was talking in the abstract.
Edwina, please see my post after yours at 9.16am.
ESJ, you obviously have trouble with the words there, their and they’re so you may find this link helpful there, their and they’re.