BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. This has nothing to do with the trapped Thai kids, but I am starting to become sick and tired of hearing their plight headlined and updated on news bulletins.

    Yes, we know it’s dangerous.

    Yes, we know it’s the rainy season.

    No, we wouldn’t like it to be OUR kids.

    Eek! If you’re the slightest bit claustrophobic, or hydrophobic (or both), the prospect of an underwater journey of several hundred metres in dark, dank, cold waters, wedged between rocky crevices, is truly horrible, especially without training.

    All of the above we know and agree with.

    But if every micro stage of this story’s development is going to be eked out to us on national bulletins, newsflashed and breathlessly reported as if our lives depended on it (or the kids’ lives depended on it) and as if there’s anything we can bloodywell do about it from 5,000 or more kilometres away, then I think I may go insane.

    I repeat, this is nothing about the plight of those young boys. They are in an awful pickle, and I wish them the best.

    But the coverage by the press is starting to become unseemly and obsessive, to no end other than to satisfy a perceived morbid curiosity.

    Out of all the millions of people in the world currently hearing the story of these boys dominate every news bulletin, there are about half a dozen – the actual divers who will conduct the rescue – who can actually do anything at all about it.

    The rest is just a big carnival, with those kids just another Media ace in the hole.

  2. “Interesting report in the afr today about how labor is offering double the spending of the lnp in Braddon and longman.
    It also talks about labor mps saying there will be “a conversation” about shortens leadership post by elections should he lose one or both seats.”

    The AFR once an intelligent well put together thoughtful and respected conservative paper, now dumbster diving to be as bad a propaganda outlet as the local fox affiliates.

  3. lizzie says: Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 8:38 am

    Protesters get permission to fly ‘Trump Baby’ balloon over London during presidential visit

    ************************************************************

    Palmer Report‏Verified account @PalmerReport

    There will soon be a big Trump-shaped bag of gas floating around London. There will also be a Trump balloon.

  4. Bushfire Bill @ #52 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 9:22 am

    This has nothing to do with the trapped Thai kids, but I am starting to become sick and tired of hearing their plight headlined and updated on news bulletins.

    Yes, we know it’s dangerous.

    Yes, we know it’s the rainy season.

    No, we wouldn’t like it to be OUR kids.

    Eek! If you’re the slightest bit claustrophobic, or hydrophobic (or both), the prospect of an underwater journey of several hundred metres in dark, dank, cold waters, wedged between rocky crevices, is truly horrible, especially without training.

    All of the above we know and agree with.

    But if every micro stage of this story’s development is going to be eked out to us on national bulletins, newsflashed and breathlessly reported as if our lives depended on it (or the kids’ lives depended on it) and as if there’s anything we can bloodywell do about it from 5,000 or more kilometres away, then I think I may go insane.

    I repeat, this is nothing about the plight of those young boys. They are in an awful pickle, and I wish them the best.

    But the coverage by the press is starting to become unseemly and obsessive, to no end other than to satisfy a perceived morbid curiosity.

    Out of all the millions of people in the world currently hearing the story of these boys dominate every news bulletin, there are about half a dozen – the actual divers who will conduct the rescue – who can actually do anything at all about it.

    The rest is just a big carnival, with those kids just another Media .

    Cutting back on news bulletins may assist you BB. 🙂

  5. WeWantPaul @ #53 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 9:23 am

    “Interesting report in the afr today about how labor is offering double the spending of the lnp in Braddon and longman.
    It also talks about labor mps saying there will be “a conversation” about shortens leadership post by elections should he lose one or both seats.”

    The AFR once an intelligent well put together thoughtful and respected conservative paper, now dumbster diving to be as bad a propaganda outlet as the local fox affiliates.

    It’s not far-fetched to think Labor has A LOT at stake re these byelections.

  6. What do all those “faces” of Lobby Groups advocating business can not afford wage increases or to pay tax earn, and who pays it?

  7. Right so ESJ doesn’t actually know John Falzon, much less the kind of lifestyle he leads, but was simply smearing him because he has the temerity (in ESJ’s eyes) to hold down an executive position of a large human services organisation.

    What a shameless hack you are ESJ.

  8. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/vc-winner-ben-roberts-smith-among-subjects-of-defence-investigation-20180704-p4zpho.html

    Victoria Cross recipient Ben Roberts-Smith is one of a small number of soldiers subject to investigation by a quasi-judicial inquiry looking into the actions of Australian special forces soldiers in Afghanistan.

    The inquiry by the Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force (IGADF) has taken sworn testimony from several serving and former Special Air Service Regiment (SAS) soldiers who allege that the nation’s most decorated and famous soldier engaged in misconduct, ranging from relatively minor breaches of defence force policy to more serious allegations involving breaches of the laws of armed conflict….

    How will the parliament sweep this under the rug…?

  9. True charities do more than just advocate they have programmes to try and make a real difference on the ground.

    The IPA however is just piss and wind! 🙂

  10. Rex Douglas @ #62 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 6:34 am

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/vc-winner-ben-roberts-smith-among-subjects-of-defence-investigation-20180704-p4zpho.html

    Victoria Cross recipient Ben Roberts-Smith is one of a small number of soldiers subject to investigation by a quasi-judicial inquiry looking into the actions of Australian special forces soldiers in Afghanistan.

    The inquiry by the Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force (IGADF) has taken sworn testimony from several serving and former Special Air Service Regiment (SAS) soldiers who allege that the nation’s most decorated and famous soldier engaged in misconduct, ranging from relatively minor breaches of defence force policy to more serious allegations involving breaches of the laws of armed conflict….

    How will the parliament sweep this under the rug…?

    Probably in a similar way to the East Timor situation.

  11. The best outcome is, of course, results all in line with the pollbludger tracker/s, but poor results will tell labor a lot, they’ll need to work out what was going on(is the polling getting something wrong, did the LNP have an effective election approach etc), in a good number of samples where they still get to re-run the general election.

    Now there are some idiots in the ALP who might believe this rubbish, but like those at the fin, they should be systematically ignored.

  12. Can you claim tax deductions for donations made to the IPA? If so then doesn’t that mean the IPA has charitable status in the same way St Vinnie’s does?

    And ESJ would be wrong again.

  13. I guess there is also an outside risk of a labour outperform the polls but we were hoping for this in Bennelong and it just didn’t happen, I think that would be bad because it might force the LNP to look a leader who isn’t one of the two worst PM’s we’ve had in the last 60 years.

  14. I came across an article on why older people appear more racist. It argues that it is not because they are of their era.
    https://www.sciencealert.com/older-people-racist-not-just-because-from-different-time-lose-inhibition
    Some quotes…

    Racism is identity politics.

    Rather, the reasons for racism are probably psychological; feeling a lack of security, a need for identity, a desire for belonging, and feeling threatened by other groups

    For some, that comfort of belonging is found in the solidarity of hating others. Psychotherapist Allison Abrams told Business Insider people who relate to a hate group, such as neo-nazis, form strong bonds based on resentment.

    Does this describe anyone in politics that you know?

    If you don’t like things about yourself, it’s a lot easier to project that onto others than to look at yourself… Especially if somebody has low self-esteem or has a lot of self-hatred.

    When people look or act differently to you, or come from somewhere else, it can be easier to use them as a scapegoat, by identifying them as a target to direct that anger and hatred towards.

    There is also a bit on how we treat the older amongst us and how that feeds into resentment and identity.

    In some areas of the world, older people are valued and respected. But in Western culture, it tends to be the opposite.

  15. Although thinking about Longman it is highly susceptible to the racism of the Government and sympathetic to the torture and murder we do in offshore detention camps. As someone who think Labor needs to take a stronger stand for not torturing and murdering innocent people we have a legal and moral obligation to help, there is part of me that thinks Labor has to leave the truly racist behind, and there is a risk that if you are to leave the truly racist behind places like longman go to the party of racism.

  16. While I just love that London’s Lord Mayor has given the green light to the giant baby balloon – I suspect May will find a way to veto it.

  17. That’s the dilemma, isn’t it WWP.

    In the current climate advocating compassion doesn’t win enough votes.

    The secret racists/bigots/etc can vote anonymously at elections … and they do, despite anything they might say out loud to the contrary.

    That was the deliberate wedge that Howard inflicted the country with and it stands today just as much.

    It is sad because progressive politicians are forced to speak expediently and hope they will be able to act differently when in power. Labor has always suffered from the weight of this yoke … not just on asylum seekers but also strong action on climate change/stance on coal … there’s a list

  18. Interesting list of potential Dem presidential nominees in the WaPo, posted by Confessions.
    The real outsider who is not included is – according to a well placed and connected American friend – somebody called Michelle Obama.
    Ridiculous? On the surface, yes. She ruled it out some time ago.
    But as well all know, in politics, it’s events, dear boy, events.
    Would she be a better bet than ageing but worthy Joe Biden? Or an even more ageing Bernie? Or ultra left but smart Elizabeth Warren?
    I know what I think.
    It’s not over till it’s over. When they go low, we go high. Exactly.

  19. Bernard Keane
    ‏Verified account @BernardKeane
    3m3 minutes ago

    Hand Foxtel $30 million / Cut ABC by hundreds of millions
    Target ABC journalists with vexatious complaints / Give gongs to Sky execs
    Omit News Corp from national security prosecutions targeting the ABC
    Appoint News Corp execs to review ABC

    Does it get any more blatant?

  20. Still happy to see the polls where they are at present – a couple of rises to 53/53.5 would be icing on the cake.

    Meanwhile the age of the tipping points has arrived:

    In the news, it is always talked about as “human emissions,” but it’s also the feedback of what the Earth does in response to what humans do to amplify what humans have done. Once you reach certain tipping points, the Earth takes over and amplifies what we’ve done to make things go faster.
    https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2018/07/this-meteorologist-explains-why-the-extreme-heat-is-way-worse-than-you-think/

  21. Further to last — this is also the Green’s most potent weapon … they try to browbeat us that we lack compassion etc… but they know the dilemma Labor is in and choose to exploit it rather than try to work with Labor, choose to demand purity when pragmatism would see greater gains in the long run.

    That said, I understand that when your platform is based on purity, acknowledging the need to compromise is difficult to swallow

  22. jenauthor @ #74 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 7:07 am

    That’s the dilemma, isn’t it WWP.

    In the current climate advocating compassion doesn’t win enough votes.

    The secret racists/bigots/etc can vote anonymously at elections … and they do, despite anything they might say out loud to the contrary.

    That was the deliberate wedge that Howard inflicted the country with and it stands today just as much.

    It is sad because progressive politicians are forced to speak expediently and hope they will be able to act differently when in power. Labor has always suffered from the weight of this yoke … not just on asylum seekers but also strong action on climate change/stance on coal … there’s a list

    Fear is an emotion that necessitates a response, while compassion is more placid in general and only becomes a tool when a lack of it generates widespread anger.

  23. I have been waiting for someone to comment on Karen Middleton’s piece on the locker-room behaviour of the ‘boys’ in the Senate.

    Leyonhjelm has acknowledged that he adopts different standards for language being recorded in Hansard and other language he uses in the chamber.
    “Outside parliament or when it’s not in Hansard, I am a normal Australian,” he told ABC Radio National.

    So are ‘normal Australians’ rude, sexist and disrespectful of women? Not all of them, I know, so why should our well-paid law makers behave in this way?

    Frankly, I’m repelled. Who will set the standards now?

  24. a r @ #71 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 10:03 am

    Late Riser @ #68 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 9:51 am

    Rather, the reasons for racism are probably psychological; feeling a lack of security, a need for identity, a desire for belonging, and feeling threatened by other groups

    In other words, they didn’t travel enough when they were younger?

    I didn’t get that from the article. If I had to guess though I’d say there might be an influence but it would depend on how you travel. Travelling as a tourist is not the same as moving somewhere for a bit. Nor is travelling with a family the same as going on your own. And travelling as a child protected from the places you visit you might learn one thing versus travelling as an adult as a welcome guest of a local. And so on.

  25. WeWantPaul @ #69 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 9:57 am

    Although thinking about Longman it is highly susceptible to the racism of the Government and sympathetic to the torture and murder we do in offshore detention camps. As someone who think Labor needs to take a stronger stand for not torturing and murdering innocent people we have a legal and moral obligation to help, there is part of me that thinks Labor has to leave the truly racist behind, and there is a risk that if you are to leave the truly racist behind places like longman go to the party of racism.

    This is where shadow ministers Nuemann and Burke are asleep at the wheel.

  26. I used to think of the refugee issue as an issue of compassion and limits to compassion, but I don’t anymore, I think the ‘compassion’ angle as beautiful as it is gets turned against us.

    Not torturing and killing refugees in hideous offshore concentration camps isn’t a matter of compassion, it is a failure of basic human decency. It is like rape, not raping someone isn’t an act of compassion it is simply passing a test of basic human decency. Not interring, torturing and killing refugees isn’t a wonderful thing of compassion it is passing a test of basic humanity.

    Compassion is opening your homes and hearts and lives to them once our country admits them.

  27. “This is where shadow ministers Nuemann and Burke are asleep at the wheel.”

    Would you care to explain, I’ve got an extra cup of coffee and I will try to emulate some of Jen’s compassion.

  28. Hand Foxtel $30 million / Cut ABC by hundreds of millionsTarget ABC journalists with vexatious complaints / Give gongs to Sky execsOmit News Corp from national security prosecutions targeting the ABCAppoint News Corp execs to review ABCDoes it get any more blatant?— Bernard Keane (@BernardKeane) July 7, 2018

  29. Confessions
    I would be surprised as well. It’s just that my source knows a few things. If she happens to stand it will be the fight of the century.

  30. chris murphy
    ‏@chrismurphys
    1h

    Duh! First penalty rates smashed by ‘independent’ Fair Work. Now Turnbull’s LIB gang appoint an independent man from Murdoch dung hill to review/interfere with our beautiful and much loved ABC.

  31. WeWantPaul @ #86 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 10:24 am

    “This is where shadow ministers Nuemann and Burke are asleep at the wheel.”

    Would you care to explain, I’ve got an extra cup of coffee and I will try to emulate some of Jen’s compassion.

    Neumann as shadow immigration and Burke as shadow multicultural affairs should be out there promoting compassion and inclusiveness rather than allowing Dutton the megaphone of divisiveness and cruelty.

  32. “Victoria Cross recipient Ben Roberts-Smith is one of a small number of soldiers subject to investigation by a quasi-judicial inquiry looking into the actions of Australian special forces soldiers in Afghanistan.

    The inquiry by the Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force (IGADF) has taken sworn testimony from several serving and former Special Air Service Regiment (SAS) soldiers who allege that the nation’s most decorated and famous soldier engaged in misconduct, ranging from relatively minor breaches of defence force policy to more serious allegations involving breaches of the laws of armed conflict….”

    When the Herald ran those series of articles a few weeks back Latina Burke posted a link on her Facebook page with the caption “So Who is Leonidas”. I found it odd at the time – like she was implying that Leonodis was in some way alreday a celebrity. I thought, “surely not”, but a quick check of BR-S’s Wikipedia entry lists his service with the SAS as with the No.2 Squadron – same as Leonadis – with tours of Afghanistan in the exactly the same rotations as the Herald article reported the war crimes happened.

    While I wouldn’t speculate that BR-S and Leonadis are the one and the same, but it seems clear that Ben knows Leonadis very well, and therefore probably knows all about the truth behind the allegations. At the very least.

  33. “Neumann as shadow immigration and Burke as shadow multicultural affairs should be out there promoting compassion and inclusiveness rather than allowing Dutton the megaphone of divisiveness and cruelty.”

    I agree they could and should do more, a lot more, but it is the local fox affiliates and bad journalism that give Dutton the megaphone, not Labor.

  34. Ben Raue on Super Saturday by-elections:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/07/whos-who-in-the-super-saturday-byelection-race

    But the race looks much closer in the Labor-held seats of Longman in Queensland and Braddon in Tasmania. Polling points to a tight contest and there are local factors that could explain a swing to the Liberal party even as Labor maintains a small national lead. If Labor were to lose either or both these seats, it could have a huge impact on the next federal election.

  35. WeWantPaul @ #94 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 10:35 am

    “Neumann as shadow immigration and Burke as shadow multicultural affairs should be out there promoting compassion and inclusiveness rather than allowing Dutton the megaphone of divisiveness and cruelty.”

    I agree they could and should do more, a lot more, but it is the local fox affiliates and bad journalism that give Dutton the megaphone, not Labor.

    The Greens manage to get their message out there via different media platforms.

    The Labor shadows are either gagged by Shorten or don’t give a toss.

  36. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/07/neoliberalism-is-a-disease-charity-chiefs-pitch-to-be-labors-new-star

    Neoliberalism is a “terrible disease” and the government’s proposed income tax cuts would “rip the guts out of what remains of a progressive taxation system”.

    So says John Falzon, the chief executive of the St Vincent de Paul Society, who has launched his bid for Labor preselection in Canberra, the third and newest federal seat in the Australian Capital Territory.

  37. “The problem with the ABC is that it has been complicit in its own demise.”

    I think that is true generally of the media. Only now in the US where fox is so totally compromised and humiliated are other journos starting to push back. While the fox affiliate propaganda organisations are a key part of the media landscape and respected by other parts of the media landscape they drag the whole class down to irrelevant and laughable.

  38. If the government decides not to go to an election in Spring and waits until autumn next year (a March election is possibly out because that would conflict with the NSW state election). I am going out on a limb and predicting a reasonably comfortable Labor win with a majority of 8-12 seats. I would argue because Bill Shorten has tapped somewhat into the disenchantment with the political class which has occurred across the whole Western world and has fueled the rise of populist movements and governments across the Western world.

    I believe the main challenge for the current government if they do down this route, would be the mid year financial review which I believe won’t be terribly good. The main factor being house prices have started to decline in the capital city markets and people are beginning to scale back on their consumption as a response to it.

    How ever wins the election will likely face a major economic challenge. The impending house bursting of the housing. As I see it the most likely scenario is that the banks will face the danger of collapsing and would be probably be bailed out. Followed by a major economic recession or depression.

    I predict that the best case scenario is that we have an economic downturn like that of Ireland’s during the GFC where unemployment rose to approximately 15%. Worst case is an economic depression similar to what Greece suffered which would see unemployment rise to approximately 28%. The upside (if you can call that) is that the value of the dollar collapses to 40 US cents or even lower.

    Brace yourself people it is going to be one hell of a ride.

  39. “The Greens manage to get their message out there via different media platforms.”

    I don’t agree. I think the greens in Longman will barely make a mark, certainly less than one nation. Labor on the other hand will make a big mark win or lose.

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