BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. Wayne @ #790 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 7:21 pm

    Our great PM Turnbull never tells lies only bill shorten does and ALP will dump him and put Albo will lead the ALP to the next election and will lose to our great LNP by a landslide

    Be careful, Comrade! The revanchist swine are beginning to suspect your true role. Remember, the safe word is “Ocelot”. Heil Kipfler!

  2. phoenixRED says:
    Sunday, July 8, 2018 at 4:54 pm
    For sheer insanity and just comedy brilliance – hard to believe only 12 episodes

    FAWLTY TOWERS

    – or is that WARTY TOWELS, WATERY FOWLS, FATTY OWLS, FLOWERY TWATS, FARTY TOWELS etc

    According to hotel reservation website booking.com, there are five Fawlty Towers hotels around the world to choose from. Perhaps you takes your chances when you book!

    Fawlty Towers, Great Yarmouth, Norfolk, United Kingdom
    Fawlty towers, Eilat, South District Israel, IsraelFawlty towers, Eilat, South District Israel, Israel
    Fawlty Towers, Tirana, Tirana County, AlbaniaFawlty Towers, Tirana, Tirana County, Albania
    Fawlty Towers, Todi, Umbria, ItalyFawlty Towers, Todi, Umbria, Italy
    Fawlty Towers Hotel, Yangshuo, Guangxi, ChinaFawlty Towers Hotel, Yangshuo, Guangxi, China

  3. daretotread. @ #795 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 7:27 pm

    How in the name of dog could a site like Wikkleaks be apolitical.

    It’s quite simple, really. You publish anything credible that comes your way, as soon as you’re able to validate it, in full, without grandstanding on Twitter and without filtering it according to which side of politics it helps or harms.

    Transparency is apolitical when it’s applied to all sides equally.

    Although also, anything relating to corporate malfeasance would be apolitical too. And there’s a whole world full of stuff related to corporate malfeasance.

  4. I went right off Assange when it became clear to me – about 10 years ago – that his main targets were left wing governments: Rudd and Gillard here, Obama’s in the USA.

    Then, I noticed that his stuff was being most heavily promoted by News Corp media outlets: in my view an unlikely turn of events. Publishing some of his facts was one thing. Publishing op eds written by Assange was another.

    Then, he said that Rupert Murdoch was his media hero, as Murdoch was apparently so dedicated to the fearless promulgation of truth, as had been his father, Sir Keith.

    Which kinda’ sealed the deal for me.

    I’m not so sure whether Assange is a nasty right-winger, a paranoid narcissistic megalomaniac, or a malignant anarchist. Perhaps he’s all three. But two things are for certain: as long as the story is about Julian, he’s in it for all he’s worth, and he sure keeps some strange political bedfellows.

    Looking at the associations between Assange, Fox News (and other News Corp outlets) and Trump, one does really wonder where Assange, Murdoch’s and Trump’s real allegiances lie. Plus those of a few other noteworthy heros of the Right as well.

  5. I went right off Assange when it became clear to me – about 10 years ago – that his main targets were left wing governments: Rudd and Gillard here, Obama’s in the USA.

    That’s what got me suss about his and Wikileaks’ motivations too.

  6. rhwombat, while you’re here, thanks again for telling me about Buonomano’s “Your Brain is a Time Machine”. I have been reading it, slowly. It is frustratingly slow to develop its ideas and I find I can only dig through a small amount before putting it down. (I wanted to shout at the opening page but I persevered.) So far (about half way) it has developed ideas similar to my own, even drawing on the stopped clock illusion, but using biological/neurological explanations whereas my perspective is computational. I am encouraged by the parallels and learning what I assume is accepted terminology. So while you’re here, thanks again! The tortoise reads.

  7. poroti

    ‘Yeah, little things like not revealing information that would identify the leaker..’

    No, he made it clear right from the start that he had information on people like Murdoch but wasn’t going to release it.

  8. …I was critical of Assange long before the last Presidential election, mainly because of his open admission that he was being selective about which documents he released.

    Apparently it’s OK to risk the lives of others by leaking information about them, as long as you protect yourself.

  9. a r @ #800 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:00 pm

    daretotread. @ #795 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 7:27 pm

    How in the name of dog could a site like Wikkleaks be apolitical.

    It’s quite simple, really. You publish anything credible that comes your way, as soon as you’re able to validate it, in full, without grandstanding on Twitter and without filtering it according to which side of politics it helps or harms.

    Transparency is apolitical when it’s applied to all sides equally.

    Although also, anything relating to corporate malfeasance would be apolitical too. And there’s a whole world full of stuff related to corporate malfeasance.

    Do you think their are fairies at the bottom of the garden? Does the tooth fairy still come?

    What nonsense.

    With the best will in the world if you or I ran wikkileaks we would screen releases according to our political philosophy. Sure eventually you might release everything but for sure if say I found material damaging to the ALP I would hold back on releasing it. It is human nature.

    In the case of Assange, he only released damaging stuff against Gillard AFTER she declared what he did was illegal and leaped into bed with the USA. I assumehe was very angry with the Australian government for their failure to help him

    Gillard SHOULD have heavied the Swedish government to at least interview Assange and either charge him or not charge him. When I say heavied I am sure there could be some reasonable exchange of favours. She should also havegot committment from the USA not to seek extradition. He my be a pain in the neck but he is OUR pain in the neck.

    Sorry what Gillard did was a travesty and it really shocks me to find people on here who wax lyrical about “human rights” but do not give a damn for someone who is not 100% with them all the way.

    Disgraceful

  10. Wayne if they are a politician and they are talking then the chances are high there is a porkie or two in there somewhere.

  11. ‘ She should also havegot committment from the USA not to seek extradition.’

    How can you get a commitment from someone to not do something they say they’re not going to do?

  12. Bushfire Bill @ #801 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:03 pm

    I went right off Assange when it became clear to me – about 10 years ago – that his main targets were left wing governments: Rudd and Gillard here, Obama’s in the USA.

    Then, I noticed that his stuff was being most heavily promoted by News Corp media outlets: in my view an unlikely turn of events. Publishing some of his facts was one thing. Publishing op eds written by Assange was another.

    Then, he said that Rupert Murdoch was his media hero, as he was apparently so dedicated to the fearless promulgation of truth.

    Which kinda’ sealed the deal for me.

    I’m not so sure whether Assange is a nasty right-winger, a paranoid narcissistic megalomaniac, or a malignant anarchist. Perhaps he’s all three. But two things are for certain: as long as the story is about Julian, he’s in it for all he’s worth, and he sure keeps some strange political bedfellows.

    Looking at the associations between Assange, Fox News (and other News Corp outlets) and Trump, one does really wonder where Assange, Murdoch’s and Trump’s real allegiances lie. Plus those of a few other noteworthy heros of the Right as well.

    BB

    Everything you say is not doubt true but it does not mean he should be denied justice. now from my recollection Assange did not release anything against the Rudd government but did against Gillard once she failed to assist him. It was not Rudd because i think he visited him as Foreign Minister.

    Once he was locked up, Assange would take pains not to antagonise ANY of the media corporations since his best (only chance of getting out would be media support.

    BB as a poster on here with a really good brain and usually excellent judgement I expect better of you.

  13. Late Riser @ #807 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:17 pm

    rhwombat, while you’re here, thanks again for telling me about Buonomano’s “Your Brain is a Time Machine”. I have been reading it, slowly. It is frustratingly slow to develop its ideas and I find I can only dig through a small amount before putting it down. (I wanted to shout at the opening page but I persevered.) So far (about half way) it has developed ideas similar to my own, even drawing on the stopped clock illusion, but using biological/neurological explanations whereas my perspective is computational. I am encouraged by the parallels and learning what I assume is accepted terminology. So while you’re here, thanks again! The tortoise reads.

    No worries LR. I think it gets clearer over the course of the book. The primary thesis – that “time” is not usefully considered a fundamental dimension or physical property, but is emergent feature of our evolved biological brain- seems to fit very well with quite a lot of neurobiology.

  14. zoomster @ #810 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:27 pm

    ‘ She should also havegot committment from the USA not to seek extradition.’

    How can you get a commitment from someone to not do something they say they’re not going to do?

    You get it in writing!!!!!!

    Also you get them to make it public ie NO we will never seek his extradition. USA did not do that and indeed Hillary Clinton is on record as asking whether the USA could take him out with a drone strike. Sure she was joking I assume but it would not leave a friendly feeling eh what.

  15. zoomster @ #814 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:33 pm

    dtt

    Assange was not denied justice. He had some of the best lawyers in the land working for him.

    Zoomster
    Yes and that more or less proves the poijnt. His was a political trial. If he was Bruce Smith even one lawyer would have ensured he was given a minor fine at worst.

    REMEMBER that NO ONE FROM SWEDEN ever bothered to interview him. If you call that justice then you and I see justice very differently. It was a parody of justice. A bloody disgrace and has brought the UK courts into disrepute.

  16. daretotread. @ #810 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:24 pm

    With the best will in the world if you or I ran wikkileaks we would screen releases according to our political philosophy. Sure eventually you might release everything but for sure if say I found material damaging to the ALP I would hold back on releasing it. It is human nature.

    Speak for yourself.

    Anyone whose ideals don’t transcend their personal politics isn’t fit to run something like Wikileaks. If I had my way, full transparency would be the default setting for all proceedings on all sides of politics. No closed-door Cabinet meetings, no secret backroom coalition deals, etc.. And no exceptions based upon political affiliation; the rule would be the same for all of our esteemed elected representatives:

    If you wouldn’t be happy repeating your remarks in public, then don’t make them in private.

    Because “private” isn’t a thing you get to have when you choose to be an elected representative for the public.

  17. With PB Greens attacks and LNP/SkyNews so called “leaked” they are scared of Bill Shorten:

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    12h12 hours ago

    Leaked Liberal party research has revealed @billshortenmp’s unpopularity with women.

    .@Bowenchris says the Liberal party leaking this information ‘shows how desperate they are.’

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2KEz8FP #SpeersonSunday

  18. ar@8:00pm
    How can publishing Democrats party emails and Hillary info fed by Russia without publishing anything on Trump is apolitical? If you think Assange is not political then you are also not political.

  19. Dropped in to see whether there was anything newsworthy re: polls or Australian politics more generally and I see we are doing Assange redux. So let me contribute:

    Rudd!

    Gillard!

    No. Rudd!

  20. Thai boys should be swimming out of the caves right now if all has gone to plan.

    1 group of 4 and then 3 groups of 3 led by cave divers.

  21. Clearly the libs don’t think that their trolls in the right-wing media have stirred up enough leadershit and are trying to stir it up themselves. Talking about desperate. If anyone wants proof that changing leaders would be a disaster for labor, this is it

  22. Ven @ #818 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:41 pm

    ar@8:00pm
    How can publishing Democrats party emails and Hillary info fed by Russia without publishing anything on Trump is apolitical? If you think Assange is not political then you are also not political.

    Ven

    Why do you assume he had anything on Trump. Think hard – locked up in the embassy he would not have a lot of Trump contacts. The older ones with Democrats or MSN may have existed but new ones. Nah!

  23. Looks like Channel 7 going full ball on Racist….


    Doc Evatt
    ‏ @DocEvatt
    1h1 hour ago

    Doc Evatt Retweeted Channel 7

    As a Melbournian, I find myself becoming more reluctant to go outside in the evenings for fear of becoming the target of a Channel 7 beat up.”

  24. Steve777

    I know you agree with me that our great PM Turnbull never tells lies like bill shorten and the ALP will dump shorten before the next election and replace him with albo who will lose to our great LNP by a landslide……

  25. ANTONBRUCKNER11 says:
    Sunday, July 8, 2018 at 8:52 pm
    Clearly the libs don’t think that their trolls in the right-wing media have stirred up enough leadershit and are trying to stir it up themselves. Talking about desperate. If anyone wants proof that changing leaders would be a disaster for labor, this is it

    It’s just another episode of the long running and extremely expensive “Kill Bill” melodrama.

    Meanwhile the leadership shenanigans inside the L/NP continue apace.

  26. Daretotread,

    No need to pat me on the head and tell me you’re worried about me, damning with faint praise.

    I never said Assange should be denied justice.

    But from what I can see he’s had it laid on in bucketfulls. He’s had the best lawyers, the most influential people, the richest patrons right behind him. He’s had his day in court (“days” plural, actually), and when he didn’t like the result, he done a runner.

    I would have thought he’d have no trouble in America, seeing as he’s gone into bat for Trump, and been a Fox News Friend.

    But it’s his choice to stay out of circulation and inside the Ecuadorian embassy. Solely his. We can’t pick and choose our justice systems and the way we are dealt with by lawful auithority, once our avenues of appeal have been exhausted.

    Assange is not a special citizen above the law. He might have thought he was, as might others, but in reality, he ain’t.

    It’s a fairly simple proposition.

  27. just saw this:

    BREAKING: Thai news site @KhaosodEnglish are reporting that two boys have already been rescued from the cave and that they were able to walk out to a nearby field hospital at 5.40 and 5.50pm.

  28. I hadn’t realised how big the Turnbull FTTN cabinets were. The one in the photo also looks to be in a dangerous location so close to a road.

    Our area is slated to be graced by one of these permanent memorials to L/NP lies and deceit some time.

  29. citizen @ #839 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 7:43 pm

    I hadn’t realised how big the Turnbull FTTN cabinets were. The one in the photo also looks to be in a dangerous location so close to a road.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Our area is slated to be graced by one of these permanent memorials to L/NP lies and deceit some time.

    It looks like a port-a-loo!

  30. “It looks like a port-a-loo!”

    It’s a primitive tardis. Powered by the improbability of the eleventy calculator. …

  31. BREAKING: Thai news site @KhaosodEnglish are reporting that two boys have already been rescued from the cave and that they were able to walk out to a nearby field hospital at 5.40 and 5.50pm.

    If true, so much for the breathless (and endless) coverage, news flashes, program interruptions and multi-tiered coverage which assured us that these boys would be there definitely for weeks “and perhaps months” before the rains eased and they could be rescued.

    Don’t want to be too much of an old curmudgeon, but anyone who swallowed the basic premise of coverage of this story – that “we” should be concerned enough to require half-hourly updates on the state of the boys, and that “we” could do something about it by just reading news stories about it – has been had.

    Thousands of kids their age die every day, in far worse circumstances, and we hear nothing about them.

    All we need now is for Putin to provide reserve seats at the World cup Final to complete the circus.

    It was all in the Kirk douglas film Ace In The Hole.

  32. “I went right off Assange when it became clear to me – about 10 years ago – that his main targets were left wing governments: Rudd and Gillard here, Obama’s in the USA.”

    My sense is that he has always been passionately anti-USA and suspect he is now fully funded by Putin. I think his politics tend towards the libertarian loon end of the spectrum, overlaid with conspiracy theorist paranoia, a superiority complex, and ‘mens right’ entitlement toxicity. A nasty piece of work.

  33. The Ramsay Centre might like to employ this fellow:

    A Republican congressional candidate in a Kansas race Democrats are targeting in November told an audience at a party meeting this month that “outside of Western civilization there is only barbarism.”

    The comments from State Sen. Steve Fitzgerald, a candidate seeking the Republican nomination in the race to replace retiring Rep. Lynn Jenkins, came at a July 2 meeting of the Leavenworth County Republican Party. During his more-than-30-minute speech, Fitzgerald lamented the fact that people believe “Western civilization is the problem,” argued that Christendom is “under attack” and doubled down on his previous statement that Planned Parenthood is worse than a Nazi concentration camp.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/07/politics/steve-fitzgerald-kansas-candidate-barbarism-comments/index.html

  34. Bushfire Bill @ #837 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:48 pm

    BREAKING: Thai news site @KhaosodEnglish are reporting that two boys have already been rescued from the cave and that they were able to walk out to a nearby field hospital at 5.40 and 5.50pm.

    If true, so much for the breathless (and endless) coverage, news flashes, program interruptions and multi-tiered coverage which assured us that these boys would be there definitely for weeks “and perhaps months” before the rains eased and they could be rescued.

    Don’t want to be too much of an old curmudgeon, but anyone who swallowed the basic premise of coverage of this story – that “we” should be concerned enough to require half-hourly updates on the state of the boys, and that “we” could do something about it by just reading news stories about it – has been had.

    Thousands of kids their age die every day, in far worse circumstances, and we hear nothing about them.

    BB

    You seem a heartless fellow tonight.

    Twelve boys trapped underground. Of course the rescue is treacherous. One diver has already died.

    There is a political implication as well given the location and the hostility of the locals to the military junta.

    I fo one have been following it closely.

  35. I think his politics tend towards the libertarian loon end of the spectrum, overlaid with conspiracy theorist paranoia, a superiority complex, and ‘mens right’ entitlement toxicity. A nasty piece of work.

    Fortunately now that he’s an Ecuadorean citizen he is no longer Australia’s problem.

  36. Ven @ #821 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 8:41 pm

    ar@8:00pm
    How can publishing Democrats party emails and Hillary info fed by Russia without publishing anything on Trump is apolitical?

    I was answering a hypothetical there. What Assange/Wikileaks actually did was clearly (and lamentably) political.

    If you think Assange is not political then you are also not political.

    Yes, Assange has been very political. Which is why I said, prior to the 8:00pm post, that he needs to go.

  37. BB

    You seem a heartless fellow tonight.

    DTT, I wish the boys the best of luck.

    But as for the press hacks covering the story, it should be them down in the cave.

    The coverage has been a litany of wild supposition, melodrama, trivial repetition, and uninformed opinionation. It has been served up to a gullible public who seem to like nothing better than a good death watch to keep them amused.

  38. BB

    I do know what you mean. The Guardian has not been too bad but then there are still the endless “psychologists” predicting long term trauma etc. My guess is that because it was a shared experience most of the boys will be fine. I only worry for the last three left behind. they could be traumatised.

    I suspect that at least three boys are out since two ambulances and a helicopter have left – so probably the first four.

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