BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. Turnbull thinks he’s on a winner. He says that Bill Shorten thinks that if he repeats his lies often enough, voters will believe him.

    Pot and kettle?

  2. With Assange I am not across the detail due to a lack of interest

    My only thought was that if his release of material put at risk operatives in locations and positions for the purpose of improving National security – so imbedded spies – then he should be charged and have the keys thrown away

    Past that if that was the circumstance, not interested

  3. Bug — you’ve been conned

    He didn’t give up liberty for an ideal.

    And he has milked it for all it has been worth.

    People like Assange disgust me even more than most be cause he plays on the sympathy of others for personal aggrandisement. And uses the resources of others to self promote. The art of propaganda at its most dishonest

  4. Patricia Routledge is terrific, and the rest of the cast was great as well.

    Unfortunately every time Hyacinth nagged Richard I couldn’t help but think of the Howards.

  5. BK says: Sunday, July 8, 2018 at 5:25 pm

    FS
    It still makes me cringe and laugh at the antics of Mrs Bucket.
    ____
    I cannot get Janette Howard out of my mind whenever I see Hyacinth.

    ****************************

    True BK – I will always remember a news bulletin when John Howard and Janette were about to meet the Queen – Lil Johnnie was just about out of his skin and anxious to go forward …..but Janette held out her arm to hold him back and mouthed shhhhh …. as would Hyacinth.

  6. ‘Just because someone is a pain in the neck they still deserve justice and fairness. ‘

    Which Assange got, in spades. He, however, wasn’t willing to reciprocate.

  7. Mr HIH thought he was on a winner with “Kill Kevin” with Gretch

    It killed Mr HIH

    Now, with his media and big business mates the only strategy Mr HIH has is “Kill Bill”

    Hopefully the strategy again kills Mr HIH in the interests of the Nation and its citizens

    The record of Mr HIH is what it is with the Republic Movement and the FAI/HIH debacle

    And he continues to sell us down the drain

    A politician he is not – and never has been

    Just a spoilt brat (with apologies to M Python!)

  8. Observor and Lizzie,
    Me three.
    It is obvious by the timing of release and the weaponised cherry-picking of emails that Julian Assange is no Daniel Ellsberg.

    .

  9. Observer

    Speaking of Mr HIH. Dougie has put out a video featuring one of its victims. ‘Merchant bankers’ get a mention . Truffles is sure to like it 🙂

    Doug Cameron
    8 hrs ·
    People like Judy know too well the human cost of corporate greed in Australia. Now, despite the banking royal commission uncovering rampant immorality and criminality within the finance sector, Malcolm Turnbull wants to give the banks a $17 billion tax cut. This is simply obscene and a slap in the face to hardworking Australians struggling to make a living.

    https://www.facebook.com/senator.doug.cameron/videos/1675271849259871/

  10. CH7 is being criticised bigly for its ‘series’ on crime

    Peter Norden

    Peter Norden Retweeted Greg Barns
    Crime stats prove crime is down down in #Victoria. Juvenile crime gone down last six years. Channel 7 check your facts. False news. Scandalous. #vicpol #springst

  11. I used to think that Mr Assange was in all this to improve transparency and democracy… which he did in useful small fits and starts. Some of the information he released was only being hidden to protect bad perps.

    But Assange’s positive contribution to the ascension into the White House of Trump negates any positive contribution Mr Assange might have made.

    I don’t really care whether Assange himself becomes a potential victim (or otherwise) of the improved US justice system under Trump.

    After all, Assange helped create it.

  12. zoomster @ #756 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 5:38 pm

    ‘Just because someone is a pain in the neck they still deserve justice and fairness. ‘

    Which Assange got, in spades. He, however, wasn’t willing to reciprocate.

    Zoomster

    Please explain

    What jiustice did Assange have? it took 6 years for the swedes to interview him

    Habeas Corpus hardly!!!!!!

    Tell me Zomster if Assange is eventually extradited to USA will you be outraged or happy to suppress free speech

  13. I would have more respect for Assange if the organisation he created was not even more secretive and even less accountable than the states he was exposing the secrets of and holding to account.

  14. Zoomster

    Do you really think that Assange would have spent 6 years in a small room unless he really feared for his life or long term liberty.

    Honestly his refusal to return to Sweden was all about his fear that he would be extradited to the US.

    Let us assume he was guilty of the sexual assault charges, what sort of sentence would he have received. Probably a fine and good behaviour bond plus deportation.He would NOT have got jail time in Sweden I think, or at least it would have been something like 6 months NOT six years.

    If you really think it has anything to do with a sex crime I have a bridge or three to sell you.

  15. Prof. Higgins @ #758 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 5:44 pm

    Observor and Lizzie,
    Me three.
    It is obvious by the timing of release and the weaponised cherry-picking of emails that Julian Assange is no Daniel Ellsberg.

    .

    So whatProf

    It does not really matter if he was an advocate for fascism, he still deserves justice.

  16. Roger Miller

    Erm, considering it is/was a whistleblower site Wikileaks would have to have uber security else the whistle blowers would not ‘blow the whistle’.

  17. I have some sympathy with Julian Assange.

    After however many years in house arrest, he gets an offer to use his network to dump on Hilary Clinton who was part of the sealed Grand Jury indictment to have him exdradited and tried for conspiracy against the USA.

    In these circumstances, would you join the Axis of Assholes?

  18. sprocket_ @ #769 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 6:10 pm

    I have some sympathy with Julian Assange.

    After however many years in house arrest, he gets an offer to use his network to dump on Hilary Clinton who was part of the sealed Grand Jury indictment to have him exdradited and tried for conspiracy against the USA.

    In these circumstances, would you join the Axis of Assholes?

    Hillary also joked about sending in a drone to kill him!

  19. Boerwar @ #765 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 5:56 pm

    But Assange’s positive contribution to the ascension into the White House of Trump negates any positive contribution Mr Assange might have made.

    Yes. Leaking damaging information against the Democrats isn’t the problem. The problem is that he got political with it, grouping the information into batches and deliberately timing the release of each one for maximum political impact, complete with heaping servings of teasers and snark and hyperbole on Twitter. He was leveraging his editorial (and pop-celebrity) influence to help one side and harm the other, rather than merely providing transparency. Hence why not one shred if information damaging to Trump or the GOP campaign ever appeared on Wikileaks.

    And then he decided to play an active role in the disinformation campaign, claiming that Russia of course had nothing whatsoever to do with sourcing the leaked info. If you’re something like a Wikileaks then the only appropriate answer to any question about your sources is “I’m sorry, but we don’t discuss our sources”.

    The world needs Wikileaks, Wikileaks needs to be apolitical, and Assange needs to go (or have his Internet privileges taken away).

  20. poroti
    yes, and as such wikileaks becomes the gatekeeper, and with no oversight or accountability they become part of the problem, not the solution.

  21. Daretotread,
    Perhaps I was unclear about whether Assange deserves justice. Inasmuch as Albert Speer, chief architect for a diabolical fascist state, received justice in the postwar Nuremberg Trials, then I reckon Assange deserves the same.

    All the same, my interest in his specific circumstances is far less than, say, the injustice of unarmed Americans getting shot by police or parents getting separated from their children by Trump.

  22. a r @ #774 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 6:15 pm

    The world needs Wikileaks, Wikileaks needs to be apolitical, and Assange needs to go (or have his Internet privileges taken away).

    Agreed. When he eventually chooses to leave the Ecuadorean embassy (which is the only way this is ever going to be resolved) he will be arrested, convicted for bail violation, and sentenced to some completely trivial punishment. End of story.

    This will make him look like the complete and utter imbecile he is.

  23. Assange was never transparent – whereas he used ‘transparency’ to justify his actions.

    He has always admitted holding information back for various (selfish) purposes.

    You can’t do that and then claim to be pro free speech or pro transparency – you are behaving exactly the same way as the people you’re criticising.

  24. Hillary also joked about sending in a drone to kill him!
    ___________________________

    How crass. A joke too!

    She should have had him actually poisoned with a toxic nerve gas. Apparently that’s ok. She could claim that his colleagues on Wikileaks did it!

  25. zoomster

    He has always admitted holding information back for various (selfish) purpose

    Yeah, little things like not revealing information that would identify the leaker.. Of course his real ‘crime’ is supposedly disrupting the coronation of Queen Hilary. Bad enough Obama ruining ‘take 1’ but ruining ‘take 2’ is truly unforgivable.

  26. poroti
    You can’t. Wikileaks would not exist without secrecy and lack of accountability. That doesnt turn secrecy and lack of accountability into a good thing. If it is bad for states it is also bad for Wikileaks, for exactly the same reasons. It comes down to, their secrecy is bad, my secrecy is good. Trust me, I’m a good guy. Next he will be fighting for peace.

  27. Our great PM Turnbull never tells lies only bill shorten does and ALP will dump him and put Albo in charge and he will lead the ALP to the next election and will lose to our great LNP by a landslide

  28. a r @ #771 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 6:15 pm

    Boerwar @ #765 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 5:56 pm

    But Assange’s positive contribution to the ascension into the White House of Trump negates any positive contribution Mr Assange might have made.

    Yes. Leaking damaging information against the Democrats isn’t the problem. The problem is that he got political with it, grouping the information into batches and deliberately timing the release of each one for maximum political impact, complete with heaping servings of teasers and snark and hyperbole on Twitter. He was leveraging his editorial (and pop-celebrity) influence to help one side and harm the other, rather than merely providing transparency. Hence why not one shred if information damaging to Trump or the GOP campaign ever appeared on Wikileaks.

    And then he decided to play an active role in the disinformation campaign, claiming that Russia of course had nothing whatsoever to do with sourcing the leaked info. If you’re something like a Wikileaks then the only appropriate answer to any question about your sources is “I’m sorry, but we don’t discuss our sources”.

    The world needs Wikileaks, Wikileaks needs to be apolitical, and Assange needs to go (or have his Internet privileges taken away).

    What a load of utter palaver

    How in the name of dog could a site like Wikkleaks be apolitical. Any leak by definition is political, depending upon who is the government of the day. I am in no mood to tolerate such utter idiocy.

    You live in fairyland. By whose definition is something apolitical or not

    Oooohh yes I know. If it says nasty things about the Russians or Chinese or the US Republicans or the LNP it is apolitical, but if it says anything nasty about the heavenly twins Julia or Hillary then it is political.

    AR do you in fact have ANY self awareness.

    Do you realise that what you said could have come from the mouth of Goebbels.

    I apologise for those of you who think I am being unnecessarily rude, but when free speech is at stake and the advocates of repression are people who claim to be progressive, I get really, really ,really upset and angry. I expect idiotic comments such as that of AR fro Pauline Hanson, not from anyone on PB.

    Possibly far worse. You seem to me to be a CIA/USA propaganda merchant.

  29. Wayne @7:21PM. There are a few errors in your post. I’ve corrected them:

    “Our useless PM Turnbull never stops telling lies, unlike Bill shorten. The Liberals will dump him at the earliest possible date and put a hard right winger in charge. Whoever leads the Coalition to the next election and will lose to our great ALP by a landslide.”

    No need to thank me.

  30. If Assange was leaking embarrassing info about the Russian Government, he would have been dead by now, just like the others who have dared do the same.
    Pity he has killed Wikileaks credibility with his selective leaking, and trying to be a player in the US elections.

  31. Here’s one ‘Wikileak’ that should have received wider publicity:

    “A FLOTILLA of people-smuggler boats on the horizon? “Fantastic,” says a “key Liberal Party strategist.”
    That’s not me talking; it’s a “key Liberal Party strategist” who visited the US Embassy in Canberra in November 2009 and shot his mouth off.

    “The more boats that come, the better,” said this unnamed strategist, over tea and biscuits with Daniel Clune, the American charge d’affaires and deputy chief-of-mission at the embassy.”

    Article published back in 2011, a week after the High Court decision on the Malaysia Solution.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/wikileaks-sinks-boats-policy/news-story/3459bd0d09762bfc6041e07b2e0288a0

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