BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. @Player One

    He is not there by his own choice, he has no choice, his political asylum has been recognized, its been recognized that its not safe for him to leave.

    Do you hold the same views of Asylum seekers on Manus, Nauru (and elsewhere), that they should all choose to leave ?

  2. Thanks poroti, but I’m not sure I can stand the blow-by-blow description. Twitter is suddenly full of “thoughts and prayers” and worse.

  3. Poroti

    I have been following the Guardian – best coverage I think

    Now for disaster porn if you can handle it -try the Daily Express. Oxygen levels critically low. The kids will be emotionally scarred for life etc, etc.

  4. lizzie

    Fingers crossed is 1200% more effective than the dreaded “Thoughts and prayers”. I just hope the guy in charge , a pollie, did not rush it for political gain.

    Apparently the first out could be @9:00 pm local time.

  5. He is not there by his own choice, he has no choice, his political asylum has been recognized, its been recognized that its not safe for him to leave.

    The only barrier to Assange leaving the Ecuadorean embassy is pride.

    When Ecuador first gave asylum to Assange, he was still a hero to many on the liberal left, and to many opponents of ā€œUS imperialismā€. Today, most of those who still support Assange are hard-right nationalists ā€“ with many seeing him as a supporter of the style of politics of both Trump and Vladimir Putin. Assange is not the political icon he used to be.

    This is perhaps whatā€™s behind Ecuador trying to seek a way to end the standoff. Assangeā€™s effect on foreign and diplomatic relations surely outweighs much of what Ecuadorā€™s own diplomatic corps would like to do.

    The problem for both sides is that neither wants to lose face: Assange wants to be a symbol of resistance against an overreaching US state, and does not want to admit his asylum was about his personal actions and not those of WikiLeaks. Ecuador does not want to suggest it made a mistake in granting Assange asylum.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/10/julian-assange-ecuador-embassy-wikileaks-us-sweden

  6. bug1 @ #702 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:50 pm

    @Player One

    He is not there by his own choice, he has no choice, his political asylum has been recognized, its been recognized that its not safe for him to leave.

    Do you hold the same views of Asylum seekers on Manus, Nauru (and elsewhere), that they should all choose to leave ?

    Hark, I see a unicorn!

  7. Confession;

    Guardian UK has a couple of journalists with an agenda, who shouldnt be recognized as journalists, worse than Murdoch.

    One day, Assange will win a Nobel peace prize.

  8. bug1 @ #702 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:50 pm

    @Player One

    He is not there by his own choice, he has no choice, his political asylum has been recognized, its been recognized that its not safe for him to leave.

    Assange can choose to leave the Ecuadorean embassy at any time. The most danger he faces is probably from the “friends” who have lost hundreds of thousands of pounds when he skipped bail.

  9. Bug I disagree with you totally.

    While Assange pretended to have a noble intent … his actions remind of Trump – self-involved narcissist who takes no responsibility for the damage he can cause with his careless use of knowledge and power.

    He has done nothing promote peace anywhere in the world. He is the ultimate disruptor. Like Pauline Hanson he craves notoriety for self aggrandisement.

  10. Actually I will grant you MASH.

    I never have, and never will consider MASH to be a comedy. A drama with occasional funny bits (Klinger, etc.), but not a comedy. The funny bits were there to relieve the tension of a show that covered some pretty serious matters (the futility of war, leadership who wouldn’t have a clue, etc.). The practical jokes were there as a coping mechanism for medical staff under pressure, and occasionally fire.

    That doesn’t stop it being one of the best TV shows ever made though.

    I binge watched the entire show a couple of years ago and one thing I got from it was that the Frank Burns character should’ve been knocked on the head a lot earlier than he was. Far from being comedy relief, he was actually a pain in the arse, and painful to watch.

  11. Jane Caro says:

    David Leyonholm is a man of limited imagination, like all libertarians. He lacks the ability to imagine what it might be like to be born black, female, gay, trans or disadvantaged. He congratulates himself for his privilege & blames others for their lack thereof. Heā€™s not smart.

  12. “libertarians” the euphemism libertarians use for being Ayn Rand fans. Sounds much better than the more truthful ‘FU I’m alright Jack” .

  13. jenauthor

    “If wars can be started by lies, peace can be started by truth” – Julian Assange

    He has a better record for accuracy than any other journalist of note, the DoD did investigate one of the earlier releases to document harm done to military personnel (IIRC), and they didnt find anything.

    A narcissist wouldn’t give up his life and liberty for ideals, he would have cut a deal years ago.

    He did actually try to cut a deal recently though, he was going to get some sort of concession in exchange for redacting some information and clearing up some issues relating to the alleged Russian involvement in the election. But the FBI killed it.
    http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/394036-How-Comey-intervened-to-kill-Wikileaks-immunity-deal

  14. Listen very carefully. I will say this only once!
    Monty Python’s Terry Gilliam, a war-baby who’s a tad older than I, grew up watching early Fifties live American sketch comedy televised from old New York theatres in front of large audiences (John Stewart’s ‘Daily Show’ and ‘Colbert Report’ borrowed from that tradition). Wouldn’t “dare to” waste Bludgers’ time with specifics but many of the sketches in say, ‘Your Show of Shows’ with Sid Caesar/Imogene Coca/Rob Reiner’s dad, Carl, were indeed prototypically pythonesque.

  15. bug1 @ #715 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 4:33 pm

    jenauthor

    “If wars can be started by lies, peace can be started by truth” – Julian Assange

    He has a better record for accuracy than any other journalist of note, the DoD did investigate one of the earlier releases to document harm done to military personnel (IIRC), and they didnt find anything.

    A narcissist wouldn’t give up his life and liberty for ideals, he would have cut a deal years ago.

    He did actually try to cut a deal recently though, he was going to get some sort of concession in exchange for redacting some information and clearing up some issues relating to the alleged Russian involvement in the election. But the FBI killed it.
    http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/394036-How-Comey-intervened-to-kill-Wikileaks-immunity-deal

    You really are glugging on the Koolaid aren’t you?

  16. Dan Gulberry,
    Larry Linville quit the role of Frank Burns at the end of his five year contract, and in a couple of interviews I’ve seen conveyed the clear impression he didn’t enjoy being solely a “comedic device”. In Altman’s film, Robert Duvall’s Major Burns departed the camp with a nervous breakdown.

  17. Prof. Higgins @ #716 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 4:05 pm

    Listen very carefully. I will say this only once!
    Monty Python’s Terry Gilliam, a war-baby who’s a tad older than I, grew up watching early Fifties live American sketch comedy televised from old New York theatres in front of large audiences (John Stewart’s ‘Daily Show’ and ‘Colbert Report’ borrowed from that tradition). Wouldn’t “dare to” waste Bludgers’ time with specifics but many of the sketches in say, ‘Your Show of Shows’ with Sid Caesar/Imogene Coca/Rob Reiner’s dad, Carl, were indeed prototypically pythonesque.

    Ernie Kovacs is my favourite from that era. First one to really play around with the technical possibilities of TV for laughs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernie_Kovacs

  18. For sheer insanity and just comedy brilliance – hard to believe only 12 episodes

    FAWLTY TOWERS

    – or is that WARTY TOWELS, WATERY FOWLS, FATTY OWLS, FLOWERY TWATS, FARTY TOWELS etc

  19. Modern libertarians are either stupid enough to believe or deliberately propagating the falsehood that unregulated market capitalism is a) free and competitive and b) increases individuals freedoms.

    Power will fill any void and power does not abide competition nor unrestrained freedom. Founding fathers of all modern democratic states have wrestled long and hard with designing a legal framework that moderates powers with checks and balances so that individuals can live in a society that maximises ‘freedom’ and ‘wellbeing’. Any ideology that worships just one of those attributes believing the other will magically follow is insanely simplistic. As has been proven through the ages, putting such ideologies into practice achieves neither.

  20. BK says: Sunday, July 8, 2018 at 5:00 pm

    phoenixRED
    Fawlty Towers was without peer. No matter how many times you watch it you will something new.

    ********************************************

    Totally Agree with you BK ! – even though I have seen it many times – and know what’s coming next – I just about wet myself laughing with it when its repeated on TV …….. or I dig out the DVD on a wet Sunday

    John Cleese was beyond eccentric genius – and every character was just so funny in their own way ….

  21. JM,
    You’re spot on about Kovacs, who was an all-rounder like Robin Williams. In that genre of playing around with television’s comedic possibilities was terrific ad-libber, Steven Allen, the first host of NBC’s ‘The Tonight Show’ before it became formatted. Allen often took the broadcast out to city locales, pioneering humorous “man on the street interviews”.

  22. BK @ #726 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:00 pm

    phoenixRED
    Fawlty Towers was without peer. No matter how many times you watch it you will something new.

    One of FT’s strong points was it was limited to 2 seasons of 6 episodes. 12 episodes in total and then no more. It could’ve gone on for many more seasons and eventually ended up outstaying its welcome.

    But that’s all you got, 12 episodes with each one being a gem. Not a dud amongst them.

  23. jenauthor @ #708 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 4:17 pm

    Bug I disagree with you totally.

    While Assange pretended to have a noble intent … his actions remind of Trump – self-involved narcissist who takes no responsibility for the damage he can cause with his careless use of knowledge and power.

    He has done nothing promote peace anywhere in the world. He is the ultimate disruptor. Like Pauline Hanson he craves notoriety for self aggrandisement.

    Jen

    So what

    Just because someone is a pain in the neck they still deserve justice and fairness. To do anything else is totalitarian and autocratic. Sort of like whites saying justice for us but not them darkies.

    THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE

    You do not like Assange’s politics therefore feel free to persecute him

    Slippery slope towards fascism in the REAL sense.

    Disgusting. Collaborators.

  24. BK

    You couldnā€™t get away with it these days though.

    Isn’t that the point of comedy? To stretch the admissable? Laughter is often a shocked response.

  25. Simon Ketch.
    I assume you know that American Connie Booth was co-creator and writer of Fawlty Towers with Cleese, with whom she was married. I thought she and Prunella Scales as Sybil Fawlty were brilliant.

  26. BK says: Sunday, July 8, 2018 at 5:08 pm

    phoenixRED
    The Major was my favourite!

    ***************************************************

    ……. especially when the moose head fell on Basil ……..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwyM9J8PTkQ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJh39MyAb7A

    ……… and the deaf Mrs Richards ……

    ……… and just for Simon – Connie Booth was intelligent Eye Candy for sure – how she stayed married to John Cleese for so long without going totally mad ?????

  27. Yes Minister, and Yes Prime Minister.

    Documentaries dont count.

    What about Rumpole? Would we call that a comedy?

  28. BK,
    Coincidentally, picked up the complete ‘Yes, Minister’ and ‘Yes, PM’ series boxset at half price sale a few months ago. They haven’t dated, not even a quark!

    Ps. Boundless appreciation for the often witty comments in your Dawn Patrol previews.

  29. Keeping up Appearances is being replayed in Perth at the moment.

    It still makes me cringe and laugh at the antics of Mrs Bucket.

    Patricia Routledge is terrific, and the rest of the cast was great as well.

    Was it the only British comedy show with a character (Sheridan) who was never seen or heard?

  30. My all-time favourite wildlife creature remains the Siberian Hamster. From memory, it did not even appear in the show.

  31. FS
    It still makes me cringe and laugh at the antics of Mrs Bucket.
    ____
    I cannot get Janette Howard out of my mind whenever I see Hyacinth.

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