BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. Boerwar @ #649 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 12:19 pm

    Did Assange collude with Trump and Putin to install the worst POTUS ever?

    Assange-Wikileaks links to Russia go way back before the 2016 US elections.

    Indeed, when it comes to Russia, Assange doesn’t have a ton of credibility.

    Throughout WikiLeaks’ existence, the allegedly pro-transparency group has had strange, shadowy, but very well-documented connections to the Russian state. The connections range from sharing purloined documents with a pro-Russian dictator to Assange receiving money for appearing on Russian state TV to WikiLeaks’ key involvement in NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden ending up in Russia.

    These incidents don’t prove, as some have alleged, that Assange is some kind of paid Russian agent, or that WikiLeaks is a Russian front organization. But they do show that WikiLeaks, an organization purportedly devoted to transparency, is at a minimum okay with helping out the world’s most aggressively authoritarian leader.

    https://www.vox.com/world/2017/1/6/14179240/wikileaks-russia-ties

  2. Simon² Katich® @ #636 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 1:53 pm

    Holy smokes, I mean pre Simsons there was Naked Gun, Mel Brooks,Laverne and Shirley, Mork and Mindy, Marx Bros, Laugh-In, SNL, MASH, … heck I will add Looney Tunes, and of course, Dukes of Hazard (ok, maybe not.. but Daisy!). And I havent googled yet.
    Maybe there was more slapstick than clever but the clever was there.

    Simon

    Mork and Mindy?????????? Hardly in the league of almost any BC sit com. Moderately amusing but great ironic sitcom no way.

    Actually I will grant you MASH. That was truly brilliant so I guess I can say that it was a real milestone.Quite savage in its way.

    The Marx Bros are interesting. They really are more slap stick than intense “intellectual” comedy.

  3. BK

    Some of your Simca Arondes made it over The Ditch. I remember Simca cars but not the model. A quick Google and hey presto the Aronde were the ones from memory. 🙂

  4. bug1 @ #646 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 2:17 pm

    c@tmomma,

    I had assumed all anti-authoritarian/ anti-establishment people would have some respect for him for what he has done on that front, not many people in the same league as him there.

    But if you cant see past the accusation made against him thats for you, but he surviving worse conditions than most prisoners are kept it. Most prisoners get visitors, are allowed hours of exercise time, and even prisoners at Guantanamo bay have access to medical care.

    Most people should be able to see he deserves to be treated better even from a most basic humanitarian level.

    What makes you think that the members of the NSW right wing ALP are anti-authoritarian or anti establishment? They are mostly enablers of the very worst of repressive actions.

    Not a bloody one of them has questioned our increasingly authoritarian anti-democratic and downright dangerous terrorist laws.

  5. I guess we will not know until they are safely out but I think that the Governor of the Thai Provice seems to have been doing a fantastic job.

    I hope like jhell I am right

    One of the kids is the spitting image of a lad that stayed with me for 4 months. I feel involved somehow. He was a crazy soccer fan too.

  6. bug1 @ #648 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 2:17 pm

    c@tmomma,

    I had assumed all anti-authoritarian/ anti-establishment people would have some respect for him for what he has done on that front, not many people in the same league as him there.

    But if you cant see past the accusation made against him thats for you, but he surviving worse conditions than most prisoners are kept it. Most prisoners get visitors, are allowed hours of exercise time, and even prisoners at Guantanamo bay have access to medical care.

    Most people should be able to see he deserves to be treated better even from a most basic humanitarian level.

    Ah, the ever reliable “most people” emerges. I call bullshit!

  7. They really are more slap stick than intense “intellectual” comedy.

    And….. two people slapping each other in the face with fish was…?

  8. daretotread. @ #657 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 2:33 pm

    bug1 @ #646 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 2:17 pm

    c@tmomma,

    I had assumed all anti-authoritarian/ anti-establishment people would have some respect for him for what he has done on that front, not many people in the same league as him there.

    But if you cant see past the accusation made against him thats for you, but he surviving worse conditions than most prisoners are kept it. Most prisoners get visitors, are allowed hours of exercise time, and even prisoners at Guantanamo bay have access to medical care.

    Most people should be able to see he deserves to be treated better even from a most basic humanitarian level.

    What makes you think that the members of the NSW right wing ALP are anti-authoritarian or anti establishment? They are mostly enablers of the very worst of repressive actions.

    Not a bloody one of them has questioned our increasingly authoritarian anti-democratic and downright dangerous terrorist laws.

    Rubbish!

  9. And Benny Hill was a towering source of intense intellectual comedy, along with Some Mothers Do Have em, Love thy Neighbour and In Sickness and in Health.

  10. I did enjoy repeats of the Good Life when that was replayed some 20 years ago or so.

    Felicity Kendall was splendid in that.

  11. A horse walked into a bar, the barman asks “why the long face?”

    And there is the one about the baby white seal that walked into a club…..

    **groans all round**

  12. Rex Douglas @ #548 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 7:30 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #238 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:14 am

    guytaur @ #530 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 7:03 am

    Darn

    I agree with Rex this far. Labor should be calling out the tragic consequences of indefinite detention. The standard you walk past concept.

    I expect Labor will or has already. I have not seen pressers recently.

    Asylum Seeker detention is not a positive issue for Labor so they will mention it as little as possible whilst in opposition.

    Anything they do say will have no positive impact with the current Government and will just be used by the Potato to beat up on Labor.

    Such a craven and shallow approach by Labor.

    Accepting reality!

    It’s why you’ll never vote for someone that forms Government.

    You’d rather make pointless ineffectual statements than be in a position to actually deal with the situation.

    Do you have some sort of warning system when you approach?

    Your purity must be blinding!

  13. Simon² Katich®

    I’m starting to detect a hint of a pattern 😀

    Dukes of Hazard (ok, maybe not.. but Daisy!)

    .

    Felicity Kendall was splendid in that.

  14. Simon² Katich® @ #665 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:00 pm

    I did enjoy repeats of the Good Life when that was replayed some 20 years ago or so.

    Felicity Kendall was splendid in that.

    I think the Goodlife is a pretty good example of what I mean. Just quiet understated humour -some slapstick.

    However I do not think the yanks have anything to compare with Yes Minister -at least not until recently.

    Speaking of recent US comedy I suggest you watch Redacted Tonight on Utube.(not the NSW and related right wingers -give you stomach ache) but for the rest of the people it is hilarious and savage.

  15. Its probably not the best comparison to compare Assange and Prisoners, a closer comparison is to Asylum seeker, as he is a registered Refugee and Asylum seeker.

    Many here decry the conditions on Manus and Nauru, but again, they can go outside, have internet access, and have better access to medical care than Julian.

    I dont know anything about NSW state politics, C@tmomma refereed to herself personally as anti-authoritarian

  16. Simon² Katich® @ #667 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:04 pm

    Hated all of those

    Me too dtt. That is my point. British comedy had no mortgage on the intellectual.

    did say BBC – which is a cut above the others.

    Also remember that the BBC had THREE stations which were actually known as High Brow, Middle Brow and Low Brow. The Benny Hill sort of smut was on the Low Brow Channel. In the US naturally the private sector media targeted the Low Brow which is the largest market.

  17. bug1 @ #648 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 2:17 pm

    c@tmomma,

    I had assumed all anti-authoritarian/ anti-establishment people would have some respect for him for what he has done on that front, not many people in the same league as him there.

    But if you cant see past the accusation made against him thats for you, but he surviving worse conditions than most prisoners are kept it. Most prisoners get visitors, are allowed hours of exercise time, and even prisoners at Guantanamo bay have access to medical care.

    Most people should be able to see he deserves to be treated better even from a most basic humanitarian level.

    He would be if he came out and faced the music.

  18. I wonder who the Aussie doctor is.

    At least this confirms my hope that the team selected are known to one another – apparently he was specifically requested by the British divers who found the boys.

  19. bug1 @ #675 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:10 pm

    Its probably not the best comparison to compare Assange and Prisoners, a closer comparison is to Asylum seeker, as he is a registered Refugee and Asylum seeker.

    Many here decry the conditions on Manus and Nauru, but again, they can go outside, have internet access, and have better access to medical care than Julian.

    I dont know anything about NSW state politics, C@tmomma refereed to herself personally as anti-authoritarian

    I go with bail absconder and person of interest for committing an alleged sexual assault.

  20. bug1 @ #678 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:13 pm

    He hasnt been charged with a crime, there is no music to face, its all a big secret.

    Bug

    He has that serious crime of bail evasion. Now maybe Geoffrey Robertsonmay chase him for the bail money but as I say the Brits should show some common sense and say -well 6 years in an emabssy for bail jumping is a rather excessive penalty and even if he was wrong enough is enough. The average murderer gets a lighter sentence. Indeed there would be few rapists who are locked up for as long as Assange – even violent ones.

  21. Greensborough Growler @ #680 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:14 pm

    bug1 @ #675 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:10 pm

    Its probably not the best comparison to compare Assange and Prisoners, a closer comparison is to Asylum seeker, as he is a registered Refugee and Asylum seeker.

    Many here decry the conditions on Manus and Nauru, but again, they can go outside, have internet access, and have better access to medical care than Julian.

    I dont know anything about NSW state politics, C@tmomma refereed to herself personally as anti-authoritarian

    I go with bail absconder and person of interest for committing an alleged sexual assault.

    GG
    THERE IS NO ASSAULT CHARGE- GET IT
    NIX, NIL

    The Swedes dropped it.

  22. daretotread. @ #686 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:17 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #680 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:14 pm

    bug1 @ #675 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:10 pm

    Its probably not the best comparison to compare Assange and Prisoners, a closer comparison is to Asylum seeker, as he is a registered Refugee and Asylum seeker.

    Many here decry the conditions on Manus and Nauru, but again, they can go outside, have internet access, and have better access to medical care than Julian.

    I dont know anything about NSW state politics, C@tmomma refereed to herself personally as anti-authoritarian

    I go with bail absconder and person of interest for committing an alleged sexual assault.

    GG
    THERE IS NO ASSAULT CHARGE- GET IT
    NIX, NIL

    The Swedes dropped it.

    daretotread. @ #686 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:17 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #680 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:14 pm

    bug1 @ #675 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:10 pm

    Its probably not the best comparison to compare Assange and Prisoners, a closer comparison is to Asylum seeker, as he is a registered Refugee and Asylum seeker.

    Many here decry the conditions on Manus and Nauru, but again, they can go outside, have internet access, and have better access to medical care than Julian.

    I dont know anything about NSW state politics, C@tmomma refereed to herself personally as anti-authoritarian

    I go with bail absconder and person of interest for committing an alleged sexual assault.

    GG
    THERE IS NO ASSAULT CHARGE- GET IT
    NIX, NIL

    The Swedes dropped it.

    As i said earlier, he just might love living in a cupboard.

  23. On the Russia/Wikileaks consipiacy theory, im disappointed that the DNC lawsuit did go ahead, they where suing “russia” and wikileaks for the DNC leaks/hacks, but it was rejected on juristictional grounds.

    Wikileaks did release spy files on Russia;
    https://wikileaks.org/spyfiles/russia/

    As far as conspiracies go related to Russia, its more likely to be found in the FBI
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-01/did-sen-warner-and-comey-collude-russia-gate

  24. GG

    We may rarely agree but I think you are a reasonable person.

    If you really believe what you wrote I suggest you call for the UK government to void any suggestion that he will be arrested on bail violation.He has served six years in conditions that are worse than a typical low security prison. How about they call for a fine of some kind and a signed statemen that he will never return to the UK. Perfectly reasonable.

    Then he gets on a plane and comes home to Australia, probably to obscurity.

    The factthat the UK does not do this is clear evidence that they DO plan to send him to the USA.

    Free speech is free speech even if he dares to say something nasty about St Julia.

  25. daretotread. @ #695 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 3:36 pm

    GG

    We may rarely agree but I think you are a reasonable person.

    If you really believe what you wrote I suggest you call for the UK government to void any suggestion that he will be arrested on bail violation.He has served six years in conditions that are worse than a typical low security prison. How about they call for a fine of some kind and a signed statemen that he will never return to the UK. Perfectly reasonable.

    Then he gets on a plane and comes home to Australia, probably to obscurity.

    The factthat the UK does not do this is clear evidence that they DO plan to send him to the USA.

    Free speech is free speech even if he dares to say something nasty about St Julia.

    The law applies equally to all.

    Assange is subject to the same laws as all people. He is not a special case despite his notoriety. He is the one who chose to jump bail when facing serious sexual misconduct charges. He is the one that locked himself up in the Ecuadorian Embassy. He’s the one that refuses to face the music.

    The British Government is right to treat him like any other person who breaks the law.
    He can rot for as long as he likes as far as I am concerned.

  26. lizzie

    The Grauniad has a live feed of the ‘disaster porn” and in some good news…

    Thailand cave rescue: officials confirm rescue operation has begun – live

    Water levels have dropped significantly since Saturday, and officials say that they are now at “peak readiness”.

    Officials would not confirm if the boys would have to dive out of the caves, but said that water levels had dropped enough that much of the cave network was walkable.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/jul/08/thailand-cave-rescue-operation-divers-trapped-boys-live

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