BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. @Sprocket @ 7:04am

    With this ‘leaked’ internal polling published in the Daily Telegraph, The question should be asked have only Bill Shorten’s ratings been ‘leaked’?

    Why have not the primaries and two party preferred vote for the electorates polled been ‘leaked’?

    I believe it is pretty stupid and maybe a sign of desperation for a political party to focus in a big way on the unpopularity of an opposition leader.

  2. GG – Ha! Cats! Made me think of John Wamsley and his cat hats. Wamsley grew up in a part of the Central Coast of NSW where I grew up and he later moved to the Adelaide Hills (as did I – both many decades after he did ofcourse). I was talking to an oldtimer about him only last week and apparently a younger John, during his time on Stirling Council, did politics Taiwan style and would throw chairs when things werent going his way.

  3. So, a 14yo girl tried to set herself on fire in Lib-Labs offshore asylum seeker torture camp.
    What does Dutton and Neumann have to say on this ?

  4. Tristo @ #501 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:16 am

    @Sprocket @ 7:04am

    With this ‘leaked’ internal polling published in the Daily Telegraph, The question should be asked have only Bill Shorten’s ratings been ‘leaked’?

    Why have not the primaries and two party preferred vote for the electorates polled been ‘leaked’?

    First rule of polling: All single seat polls are rubbish.

  5. Rex

    They will seemingly forge on with him as their chief spokesperson, putting at risk a very real possibility of a continuance of this destructive Abbott/Turnbull Govt.

    ____________________________________

    For once Rex gets it right. Keeping Bill Shorten is the only way a continuance of this destructive government will be put at risk. Bringing back leadershit will make its continuance a certainty.

  6. Rex Douglas @ #503 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 6:19 am

    So, a 14yo girl tried to set herself on fire in Lib-Labs offshore asylum seeker torture camp.
    What does Dutton and Neumann have to say on this ?

    You are an offensive idiot!

    Shorten has clearly said that denying medical treatment in Australia is not an appropriate way to deal with people in the camps.

  7. Best wishes to Jenny Macklin.

    I think she is a genuine humanitarian who tried hard but sadly failed in convincing her party to be more humane in certain policy areas.

  8. Might be missing the point but everyone in employment earns a wage for their commitment and effort

    For a raft of reasons that commitment and effort sees people earn a wage at a differing level to others including in the same business

    There is a hierarchy from Senior Manager to a probationary employee

    That is the work place

    But not everyone is in employment for a raft of reasons including parental status and choice, health, age, lack of employment opportunity and a raft of other reasons

    The lack of equality in wages is a fact of opportunity and progress

    What the tax system does is collect revenue from commerce and industry with a level of those collections appropriated to the Social Security system, a payments system providing the dignity of a life style in keeping with community standards of basic requirements

    Wage equality is a fair days pay for a fair days work – based on effort and commitment and recognising the status held in that endeavour

    As in everything you are only as strong as the weakest – as the Hayne RC shows us

    There is legislation in regard the minimum wage and in regards OH&S – legislation not all employees adhere to including deliberately

    Never think “business” is pristine

    The Unions have a raft of “negotiating” skills from withdrawal of labour including across like Industry

    Employers similarly have “negotiating” skills from summary retrenchment

    My view is the more intense that “fight” between Capital and labour the more sustainable the outcome both for Capital and labour and that is “equalisation” between Capital and labour because ultimate arbitration will result

    Wage levels within that “fight” will evolve in regards individual employees and their ambition

    Plus the franchise industry has risen for a reason no one seems to address – who goes into a franchise and why?

    Past that rambling we have government managing across the economic cycle to the benefit of its citizens

    But then you get Murdoch – and their personality polling appears abject crap as William presents BUT it is reported by Murdoch for a reason and a purpose and if that reason and purpose is successful Australia is in deep trouble because such an outcome says the majority of voting Australians are uneducated – and no better that Americans with Trump and the Brits with Brexit – or what history tells us of other Nations which are a blight on humanity because democracy failed

    And, as we see, no matter who the Labor leader is, including at State level, Murdoch will attack them with relish and disregard

  9. What does Dutton and Neumann have to say on this ?

    WTF does Turnbull have to say? It is like he is somehow divorced from the harsher and dumber policies of his government – immune to all the fallout and angst which instead must be directed to Dutton or Abbott….. or Shorten FFS.

    Sorry about the language, but this is unfathomable, disgraceful for our government to be doing this – and it has happened before when Dutton blamed refuggee advocacy groups and Turnbull again took no flak.

  10. Barney in Go Dau @ #210 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:28 am

    Rex Douglas @ #503 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 6:19 am

    So, a 14yo girl tried to set herself on fire in Lib-Labs offshore asylum seeker torture camp.
    What does Dutton and Neumann have to say on this ?

    You are an offensive idiot!

    Shorten has clearly said that denying medical treatment in Australia is not an appropriate way to deal with people in the camps.

    The heart of the issue is the torture camps, which Labor are on a unity ticket with the Govt.

  11. Simon² Katich® @ #502 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 6:18 am

    GG – Ha! Cats! Made me think of John Wamsley and his cat hats. Wamsley grew up in NSW where I grew up and like me later moved to the Adelaide Hills. I was talking to an oldtimer about him only last week and apparently a younger John, during his time on Stirling Council, did politics Taiwan style and would throw chairs when things werent going his way.

    Having encountered Dr John at Flinders Uni that does not surprise me at all. 🙂

  12. Rex Douglas @ #515 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 6:32 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #210 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:28 am

    Rex Douglas @ #503 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 6:19 am

    So, a 14yo girl tried to set herself on fire in Lib-Labs offshore asylum seeker torture camp.
    What does Dutton and Neumann have to say on this ?

    You are an offensive idiot!

    Shorten has clearly said that denying medical treatment in Australia is not an appropriate way to deal with people in the camps.

    The heart of the issue is the torture camps, which Labor are on a unity ticket with the Govt.

    No the heart of the issue is how you treat the people there.

    This is nothing to do with the framework, these are decisions being made in how to deal with the people once there.

    They are cruel and punitive but they do not need to be.

    Labor has said this!!!

  13. C@tmomma

    Truth will never harm democracy, truth doesnt have sides.

    It seems your opinion of Assange is based on harm he has done to your allies, its not uncommon, and for that he has enemies on the Left and the Right.
    You should be able to appreciate that the powerful enemies he has made on the left and right will use the public against him any way they can.

    If you look into the sexual assault claims there are very obvious flaws, a simple one is the prosecutor had only only one case, and it took six years to get around to interviewing him. Julian isnt stupid, he isnt going sit in the embassy for 6+ years to avoid a few months in prison.

    You should do some research into it, dont let yourself be used by these propagandists.

  14. Having encountered Dr John at Flinders Uni that does not surprise me at all.

    He certainly has warts. But he was a trailblazer when it came to feral animal proof wildlife refuges. I remember some NPWS people initially complaining about them but now realise that they are an essential part of biodiversity conservation.

  15. And in regard Macklin, as but one person I agreed that a “single” parent should not be able to rely on Child Support and a single parent pension until the last child attains 18 and remains in education until the end of the school year of they turn 18 in

    I had no problem with saying the children are at school age so the “safety net” of a Single parent pension is withdrawn

    And that you then need to otherwise qualify for safety net support

    And I add the joiner that whilst I was the beneficiary of a vey minimal Child Support Assessment I was never the beneficiary of a Single Parent payment – despite not working by choice

    It was a long time ago but I think my asset position subsequent to Property Orders precluded me hence I never applied

    I do recall also that I did not want to be in any way involved with the intrusive Centrelink

  16. bug1 @ #518 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    C@tmomma

    Truth will never harm democracy, truth doesnt have sides.

    It seems your opinion of Assange is based on harm he has done to your allies, its not uncommon, and for that he has enemies on the Left and the Right.
    You should be able to appreciate that the powerful enemies he has made on the left and right will use the public against him any way they can.

    If you look into the sexual assault claims there are very obvious flaws, a simple one is the prosecutor had only only one case, and it took six years to get around to interviewing him. Julian isnt stupid, he isnt going sit in the embassy for 6+ years to avoid a few months in prison.

    You should do some research into it, dont let yourself be used by these propagandists.

    You’re hardly the appropriate person to decide Assange’s guilt or innocence.

    What we do know is he jumped bail and refuses to face up to the charges against him.

    All your sophistry can’t hide his disrespect for the law.

  17. @Greensborough Growler

    Yes, however it did not stop the Liberals from ‘leaking’ their own extremely favorable internal polling for Braddon when the by-elections were announced.

  18. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, July 8, 2018 at 9:32 am
    Barney in Go Dau @ #210 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:28 am

    Rex Douglas @ #503 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 6:19 am

    So, a 14yo girl tried to set herself on fire in Lib-Labs offshore asylum seeker torture camp.
    What does Dutton and Neumann have to say on this ?

    You are an offensive idiot!

    Shorten has clearly said that denying medical treatment in Australia is not an appropriate way to deal with people in the camps.

    The heart of the issue is the torture camps, which Labor are on a unity ticket with the Govt.

    Rex

    Have you ever considered how foolish you will look when Bill Shorten becomes PM and starts fixing the very things you keep complaining about? Probably not. Your blind hatred of the man will never allow you to see any good in him.

  19. Good Morning

    Not a bad Insiders this morning.

    I do note the blame the Greens for Climate Policy failure is in full swing with the media.

    This just after showing Tony Abbott’s extremism and ignoring the Gillard Government’s success on climate policy.
    Anything to excuse the LNP from blame.

  20. Why is SenL so obsessed with SHY’s supposed sex life? What a creep!

    More to do with an attempt to discredit her through the age old technique of sidelining her many attributes in favour of one headline grabbing one attribute. An attribute that is even more headline grabbing as it is based on rumour yet has no relevance to her public role.

    His statements are disgraceful but I also think it would have been best handled by quick and broad condemnation and then the media should have starved it of air.

  21. Confessions @ #520 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:48 am

    Ack. Why is SenL so obsessed with SHY’s supposed sex life? What a creep!

    Unfortunately, it’s just how public discourse works these days.

    The Greens are really no better. They disguise their intolerance with their non stop virtue signalling. Apparently, it’s always about some greater good that only they can see and understand.

    It’s ‘look at me politics” writ large. Full of stridency and joylessness dressed up as the opposite.

  22. PvO is a vastly more informative Insiders panelists than fellow conservatives Gerard Henderson and that guy from the AFR.

    And like Savva he also has insights and gossip about the Libs which provide context. I did not know that Josh Frydenberg was known by his colleagues as picking the low hanging ministerial fruit and then getting out of the portfolio before the gig got tough. He must be hating Greg Hunt right about now!!

  23. Darn

    I agree with Rex this far. Labor should be calling out the tragic consequences of indefinite detention. The standard you walk past concept.

    I expect Labor will or has already. I have not seen pressers recently.

  24. Assange is in the same camp as Putin and Trump. His role was to undermine the American Democrats (not that they are much better).

  25. Tristo @ #523 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:52 am

    @Greensborough Growler

    Yes, however it did not stop the Liberals from ‘leaking’ their own extremely favorable internal polling for Braddon when the by-elections were announced.

    So what?

    It might garner a headline. However, history shows these PR stunts rarely have any substance to them.

  26. His statements are disgraceful but I also think it would have been best handled by quick and broad condemnation and then the media should have starved it of air.

    I dunno. I think the opportunities given to him to double down on his own numptyness have just further disgraced him in the eyes of the public. I love Charlie Pickering’s offering:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wNrJZdbhVk

  27. Well, I feel like a bit of a nincompoop today 🙁

    Overnight, I believe I may have figured out the discrepancy between the Clean Energy Regulator figures for solar battery installations in 2017 (4,500) with the Sunwiz figures for solar batteries installed the same year (21,000). The latter figures are those used by the Clean Energy Council. This is not a minor discrepancy that you can just put down just to late or sloppy reporting, and it is important because it is the latter figure that is used to calculate that out of 172,000 solar installations done in 2017, about 12% include batteries.

    The problem is that I (along with people who probably write their articles based on the Sunwiz press-release headline figures, without shelling out $4500 for the actual report) have been assuming ‘Tesla-type’ batteries, where one solar installation means one installed battery. But Tesla batteries are still expensive – at least twice the price of lead-acid batteries for the same amount of usable storage capacity. Most batteries installed in solar systems – certainly in 2017 – would still have been lead-acid technology, where it is usual to have multiple batteries per installation.

    21,000 batteries installed in 4,500 solar installations mean an average of about five solar batteries per installation, which makes perfect sense. My own solar installation has six lead-acid solar batteries installed … which is why I feel like a nincompoop for not figuring this out sooner.

    So batteries were probably not installed in 12% of the solar systems installed in 2017, but some much lower percentage – possibly only a few percent.

    I will sleep easier tonight! 🙂

  28. I should also. Mention I am busy moving and as a result my internet access will be restricted as the change over happens. I don’t see why it takes so long but Telstra is the wholesaler and the phone line was declared inactive and I am going to be charged to reconnect. Even though it only takes a Tech to flick a swith at the exchange. There is dial tone.

    So do not worry there is something wrong with my abscence from posting 🙂

  29. @guytaur

    I feel there are many in both the Liberal and especially National party caucus while not desiring Tony Abbott as leader again, do agree with what he is advocating. The cause of this is the skepticism towards human caused climate change among many in this crowd.

  30. Insiders reminded me of how shallow and incompetent Truffles can be. He hardly read the Uluru Statement before jumping to a faulty conclusion and condemning it; he lacked the manners to receive the deputation from the First Peoples with courtesy and respect. I am ashamed that he is our PM.

  31. guytaur @ #530 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 7:03 am

    Darn

    I agree with Rex this far. Labor should be calling out the tragic consequences of indefinite detention. The standard you walk past concept.

    I expect Labor will or has already. I have not seen pressers recently.

    Asylum Seeker detention is not a positive issue for Labor so they will mention it as little as possible whilst in opposition.

    Anything they do say will have no positive impact with the current Government and will just be used by the Potato to beat up on Labor.

  32. Tristo

    I agree with that. However it does appear the extremiists are losing ground. Aside from his blame the Greens commentary PvO was pretty spot on about the politics.

    Its a falling number strongest in North Queensland. See State Nationals policy backing renewables. Says all you need to know.

    The Nuclear Power plant on Bribie Island is a gift for Labor in the by election thats for sure

  33. Barney

    I know what Labor is doing. However some things should be called out. All Labor has to say is its appalling that it took the threat of court action for the Government to remember Duty of Care.

    Remember Labor opposes indefinite detention for this very reason.

  34. ‘Insiders’ has a tendency to start off making it clear that something shouldn’t be an issue, because it isn’t at all contentious, and then spending ten minutes discussing it as if it is one.

    Three examples this morning: insignificant backbencher’s comments on Paris agreement; insignificant Senator’s obviously out of line comments; whether the Press Gallery should ban visiting Nauru.

  35. Player One @ #534 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:08 am

    Well, I feel like a bit of a nincompoop today 🙁

    Overnight, I believe I may have figured out the discrepancy between the Clean Energy Regulator figures for solar battery installations in 2017 (4,500) with the Sunwiz figures for solar batteries installed the same year (21,000). The latter figures are those used by the Clean Energy Council. This is not a minor discrepancy that you can just put down just to late or sloppy reporting, and it is important because it is the latter figure that is used to calculate that out of 172,000 solar installations done in 2017, about 12% include batteries.

    The problem is that I (along with people who probably write their articles based on the Sunwiz press-release headline figures, without shelling out $4500 for the actual report) have been assuming ‘Tesla-type’ batteries, where one solar installation means one installed battery. But Tesla batteries are still expensive – at least twice the price of lead-acid batteries for the same amount of usable storage capacity. Most batteries installed in solar systems – certainly in 2017 – would still have been lead-acid technology, where it is usual to have multiple batteries per installation.

    21,000 batteries installed in 4,500 solar installations mean an average of about five solar batteries per installation, which makes perfect sense. My own solar installation has six lead-acid solar batteries installed … which is why I feel like a nincompoop for not figuring this out sooner.

    So batteries were probably not installed in 12% of the solar systems installed in 2017, but some much lower percentage – possibly only a few percent.

    I will sleep easier tonight! 🙂

    I, for one, will not indulge in any “nincompoop shaming”.

  36. Funny little aside had dinner last night with a friend from uni, we’d been in first year of our BSc’s together, and while I went other ways she carried on did her PhD and has largely worked in unis or R&D spinoffs from unis ever since.

    I got to ask her for a high level objective summary of the carrying capacity science, which of the scientific disciplines were doing it and whether or not they were successful in keeping idiot economists well away from the scientific endeavour.

    Some really interesting stuff. I’d worked out myself that cheap renewable energy means cheap abundant desal, apparently with enough cheap energy you can also do phosphorus, which I remembered can be important.

    Long interesting story later your constraints boil down to two or three human factor choices in the first instance. How much ‘wilderness’ you choose to save, do you save all the national parks or more, or less. And how many of us are prepared to live below ground or above ground (very below ground or very above ground).

    Ignoring comfort factors one view is that the actual limiting factor as you get to massive populations is essentially body heat of the trillions of humans, at which point I assume we either die out to an equilibrium or just die out.

    So yeah massive surprise no rational scientific link between refugee / immigration policy and carrying capacity unless you start to introduce boutique needs or restraints on your system/s. You know boutique things like you don’t really like refugees and don’t want to even share your abundant cheap energy with them.

  37. zoomster @ #543 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:20 am

    ‘Insiders’ has a tendency to start off making it clear that something shouldn’t be an issue, because it isn’t at all contentious, and then spending ten minutes discussing it as if it is one.

    Three examples this morning: insignificant backbencher’s comments on Paris agreement; insignificant Senator’s obviously out of line comments; whether the Press Gallery should ban visiting Nauru.

    As Amy Remeikis pointed out, in a country where Supermarkets charging 15cents for a plastic bag is a National issue, who can say what is an important or unimportant political issue?

  38. Barney in Go Dau @ #238 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:14 am

    guytaur @ #530 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 7:03 am

    Darn

    I agree with Rex this far. Labor should be calling out the tragic consequences of indefinite detention. The standard you walk past concept.

    I expect Labor will or has already. I have not seen pressers recently.

    Asylum Seeker detention is not a positive issue for Labor so they will mention it as little as possible whilst in opposition.

    Anything they do say will have no positive impact with the current Government and will just be used by the Potato to beat up on Labor.

    Such a craven and shallow approach by Labor.

  39. zoomster @ #467 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 11:29 pm

    dtt

    ‘ Until recently that was a skill that the yanks had none of, but it seems to be emerging.’

    Never read James Thurber? Or Dorothy Parker? Or — to go even further back – Stephen Leacock?

    As for Shakespeare, there’s works in other languages commonly described as his equivalent. Not speaking those other languages, I can’t judge.

    Zoomster

    I have never read Parker or Leacock but since the comedies on the list were all TV/film, obviously I was not looking at literature.

    Now as for commenting on other countries having great writers, your comment is I think insulting to most literate English speakers (I mean the excellent ones not myself). Nearly every literature expert has read the German, Russian and French greats as a basic minimum and while I have not read most of them, I am aware of the qualities of Goethe, Checkov, Moliere etc.

    Educated British especially in the 200 years before WWII, actually studied and searched the whole world over for great literature. I know for example that many theological students studied Sanskrit (includng my uncle) and obviously Latin, Greek and Italian literature was very well studied. The works of Great Chinese scholars was studied and indeed at Sydney University when I studied there, the Chinese course, after two years of introductory modern language devoted the remaining two -three years entirely to study of ancient Chinese literature (Sung dynasty poetry etc). Arabic poetry also has been quite well studied.

    Now it is possible that there have been writers better than Shakespeare written in languages other than English (but not in the major languages of the world), in which case it is up to the people in those nations to translate the literature so we can all compare. But statements that they exist are meaningless and as I say insulting.

    I will however make one qualification. I suspect that Japanese have a strong literary tradition and this language was not well known to the British of the 1800s. But even there I think that most of the great Japanese literature has by now been uncovered and studied.

    Look few of us doubt the superiority of German and Italian Musicians over those from Britain, few us us fail to recognise that Italian, Spanish and Dutch artists were greater than those of Britain. However allow the Brits rights over great literature.

  40. WeWantPaul @ #545 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:24 am

    So yeah massive surprise no rational scientific link between refugee / immigration policy and carrying capacity unless you start to introduce boutique needs or restraints on your system/s. You know boutique things like you don’t really like refugees and don’t want to even share your abundant cheap energy with them.

    Your friend’s PhD was clearly in gift-wrapping.

  41. Hey Player One,

    You ain’t no one of them there nincompoops.

    Just a fella that has done some critical reflection.

    Should be more of it around here.

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