BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. I think the opportunities given to him to double down on his own numptyness have just further disgraced him in the eyes of the public.

    You may be right ‘fess. But I am not sure we can use the generic term ‘the public’ anymore. ‘The public’ probably arent tuning in at all – but the Hadley listeners are lapping up his doubledowning and gaining confidence that their own bigotry is now also allowed to be openly expressed regardless of the whinging lefties and their hysterics about political correctness.

  2. Hey Player One…Just a fella that has done some critical reflection.

    What a funny old fella is P1,
    She gets in all manner of strife…

  3. Greensborough Growler @ #520 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:51 am

    bug1 @ #518 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    C@tmomma

    Truth will never harm democracy, truth doesnt have sides.

    It seems your opinion of Assange is based on harm he has done to your allies, its not uncommon, and for that he has enemies on the Left and the Right.
    You should be able to appreciate that the powerful enemies he has made on the left and right will use the public against him any way they can.

    If you look into the sexual assault claims there are very obvious flaws, a simple one is the prosecutor had only only one case, and it took six years to get around to interviewing him. Julian isnt stupid, he isnt going sit in the embassy for 6+ years to avoid a few months in prison.

    You should do some research into it, dont let yourself be used by these propagandists.

    You’re hardly the appropriate person to decide Assange’s guilt or innocence.

    What we do know is he jumped bail and refuses to face up to the charges against him.

    All your sophistry can’t hide his disrespect for the law.

    GG

    I guess you are aware that he now faces NO charges other that the UK charge for jumping bail. Whatever else you may think you can be absolutely SURE that Assange truly believes that the Brits will hand him over to the USA, since he no longer has any Swedish charges to face.

    Perhaps he is paranoid but he obviously really believes it. After all what would be the penalty for jumping bail – loss of the bail money and presumably a very short time in the clink – like a month or so.

  4. SK

    Yes Cheryl Kernot is right about Senator L’s tactics. Sometimes you just have to ignore that and call the behaviour out.

    Just like John Howard did with Pauline Hanson the first time around

  5. guytaur @ #535 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:09 am

    I don’t see why it takes so long but Telstra is the wholesaler and the phone line was declared inactive and I am going to be charged to reconnect. Even though it only takes a Tech to flick a swith at the exchange. There is dial tone.

    So do not worry there is something wrong with my abscence from posting 🙂

    Doesn’t even need a tech, only in rare circumstances, all done remotely by computer. Used to be in Aus now done from the Philippines. Worked for Telstra for a while as a service specialist so did a lot of this stuff.

  6. Abbott’s more in sorrow than in anger silliness and “I’m only saying this because I care” is the kind of doublespeak that should fool no one – and the media is giving him too much oxygen.

  7. “I guess you are aware that he now faces NO charges other that the UK charge for jumping bail. Whatever else you may think you can be absolutely SURE that Assange truly believes that the Brits will hand him over to the USA, since he no longer has any Swedish charges to face.
    Perhaps he is paranoid but he obviously really believes it. After all what would be the penalty for jumping bail – loss of the bail money and presumably a very short time in the clink – like a month or so.”

    I don’t believe any of the stuff I read about the other legal system, the value and depth of English language stuff I could find on it and the ability of our media to deal with really simple English language Australian law just means I have no idea. Could for example the Swedish be foxing and issue an Interpol warrant that would effectively restart their process immediately.

    Would be hilarious if one of the elements in Putin helping Trump ends up a prisoner in Trumps America. He probably be miss placed in one of those border concentration camps for illegal arrivals.

    A man who more than most of us, through a combination of luck determination and degree or two of insanity, wrote his own story and owns whichever ridiculous direction it goes from here. A character who has left very few portions of the audience with any sympathy at least in the West, maybe he could join that other hero of espionage in Putin’s Russia with a bit of luck.

  8. daretotread. @ #555 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:38 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #520 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:51 am

    bug1 @ #518 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    C@tmomma

    Truth will never harm democracy, truth doesnt have sides.

    It seems your opinion of Assange is based on harm he has done to your allies, its not uncommon, and for that he has enemies on the Left and the Right.
    You should be able to appreciate that the powerful enemies he has made on the left and right will use the public against him any way they can.

    If you look into the sexual assault claims there are very obvious flaws, a simple one is the prosecutor had only only one case, and it took six years to get around to interviewing him. Julian isnt stupid, he isnt going sit in the embassy for 6+ years to avoid a few months in prison.

    You should do some research into it, dont let yourself be used by these propagandists.

    You’re hardly the appropriate person to decide Assange’s guilt or innocence.

    What we do know is he jumped bail and refuses to face up to the charges against him.

    All your sophistry can’t hide his disrespect for the law.

    GG

    I guess you are aware that he now faces NO charges other that the UK charge for jumping bail. Whatever else you may think you can be absolutely SURE that Assange truly believes that the Brits will hand him over to the USA, since he no longer has any Swedish charges to face.

    Perhaps he is paranoid but he obviously really believes it. After all what would be the penalty for jumping bail – loss of the bail money and presumably a very short time in the clink – like a month or so.

    Perhaps he enjoys living in a cupboard.

    But, thanks for agreeing he has no respect for the law.

  9. guytaur says:
    Sunday, July 8, 2018 at 10:03 am
    Darn

    I agree with Rex this far. Labor should be calling out the tragic consequences of indefinite detention. The standard you walk past concept.

    I expect Labor will or has already. I have not seen pressers recently.

    Guytaur

    As you say Labor are already doing that and Shorten has specifically come out against indefinite detention. But Rex will never give him or the party any credit for it. He loves his Lib-Lab nonsense too much for that.

    (Good luck with your house move. I’m glad it’s you and not me.)

  10. daretotread. @ #555 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:38 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #520 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:51 am

    bug1 @ #518 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    C@tmomma

    Truth will never harm democracy, truth doesnt have sides.

    It seems your opinion of Assange is based on harm he has done to your allies, its not uncommon, and for that he has enemies on the Left and the Right.
    You should be able to appreciate that the powerful enemies he has made on the left and right will use the public against him any way they can.

    If you look into the sexual assault claims there are very obvious flaws, a simple one is the prosecutor had only only one case, and it took six years to get around to interviewing him. Julian isnt stupid, he isnt going sit in the embassy for 6+ years to avoid a few months in prison.

    You should do some research into it, dont let yourself be used by these propagandists.

    You’re hardly the appropriate person to decide Assange’s guilt or innocence.

    What we do know is he jumped bail and refuses to face up to the charges against him.

    All your sophistry can’t hide his disrespect for the law.

    GG

    I guess you are aware that he now faces NO charges other that the UK charge for jumping bail. Whatever else you may think you can be absolutely SURE that Assange truly believes that the Brits will hand him over to the USA, since he no longer has any Swedish charges to face.

    Perhaps he is paranoid but he obviously really believes it. After all what would be the penalty for jumping bail – loss of the bail money and presumably a very short time in the clink – like a month or so.

    His cynical tactic of waiting out the Swedes until their Statute of Limitations on one charge passed and the complainant didn’t feel like dredging up the past in the other, worked for Julian.

    *golf clap*

    It’s just more proof of what an opportunistic scumbag he is. And squawking about the potential of him ending up in an American prison is just a red herring. Fitting, in a karmic way that he ended up in a prison of sorts anyway.

  11. On a side note I do want to say. Its been good to see Labor people defending Senator Sarah Hanson Young including on this blog when I have had the chance to read.

    It has made a refreshing change from the internimable Labor Greens war.

    As a person who is progressive but not a member of either party its been good to see some real unity on the issue and not party political game playing.

  12. Long interesting story later your constraints boil down to two or three human factor choices in the first instance. How much ‘wilderness’ you choose to save, do you save all the national parks or more, or less. And how many of us are prepared to live below ground or above ground (very below ground or very above ground).

    1. Save as much wilderness and animal habitats and ecosystems as possible.

    2. Save all National Parks and add to them. No exploitation of them either by business encroachment into them. Around them, fine, but not in them. Walk, sail or ride through them, that’s all.

    3. Very below ground with a green top. Cooler in summer, warmer in winter. Computer-generated scenery. Easy access to the outside world for mental health purposes.

    Elect me now, I’ll show you how! 😉

  13. C@tmomma @ #576 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:58 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #573 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:56 am

    Seems like they are going in to get those kids in the cave in Thailand. power to their scuba grar!

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    I heard the Thai government were just waiting for experts from overseas to arrive.

    That is probably correct. Here’s a picture of some US support arriving just a few minutes ago!

  14. WeWantPaul @ #559 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 10:47 am

    “I guess you are aware that he now faces NO charges other that the UK charge for jumping bail. Whatever else you may think you can be absolutely SURE that Assange truly believes that the Brits will hand him over to the USA, since he no longer has any Swedish charges to face.
    Perhaps he is paranoid but he obviously really believes it. After all what would be the penalty for jumping bail – loss of the bail money and presumably a very short time in the clink – like a month or so.”

    I don’t believe any of the stuff I read about the other legal system, the value and depth of English language stuff I could find on it and the ability of our media to deal with really simple English language Australian law just means I have no idea. Could for example the Swedish be foxing and issue an Interpol warrant that would effectively restart their process immediately.

    Would be hilarious if one of the elements in Putin helping Trump ends up a prisoner in Trumps America. He probably be miss placed in one of those border concentration camps for illegal arrivals.

    A man who more than most of us, through a combination of luck determination and degree or two of insanity, wrote his own story and owns whichever ridiculous direction it goes from here. A character who has left very few portions of the audience with any sympathy at least in the West, maybe he could join that other hero of espionage in Putin’s Russia with a bit of luck.

    WWP

    It was all published in the parers. Once afet=r 6 years they finally came over to interview Assange the charges were dropped. Some I think fell over due to time issues.

    Read up on it.

    I also find your attitude seriously disturbing.

    Freedom of speech is sacrosactin a genuine democracy even when you hate what others may say. The attitude of many of the ALP Giillardistas here is frankly shocking. Just because he was not nice to St Julia you abandon all the principles of free speech that are fundamental to democracy.

    Never, ever, ever comment on human rights in China or Russia, since you are obviously, totally unable to separate basic priciples from personal dislike, and have supported the most outrageous attack on the principle of free speech that has ever occurred to an Australian.

    Shame, Shame, shame.

    Remember the old adage

    “I would fight to the death against your principle but I would give my life for your right to express them.”

    Sorry I forget just which Frenchman said this and I may have misquoted but they still stand today as a core principle of a free society.

  15. GG

    Yes looks like thaey are starting.

    Itis so very very risky.

    I gather that the initial four Brits are the best in the world at cave diving. I hope that all the experts who have joined them are also similarly skilled. I imagine that there is some “community” of cave divers that all know each other and can recommend others.

    I bloody well hope so!!!!

  16. Actually, Rule of Law is the glue that keeps Democracies together. Anyone that thumbs their nose at the legal process does not deserve the time of day. Even less, the privilege of free speech.

  17. DTT

    I am no Assange fan. I believe he ended up with Russian intelligence precisely for the reasons you outline in your post.

    Those fleeing persecution are vulnerable to all manner of things. Assange has been doing that all his life. Starting with being born into a family that was part of a rekigious cult.

    So no matter what you think of Assange human rights are human rights. They should apply to all no exceptions.

  18. Assange has ‘believed’ he would be handed over to the US for years now, even though the US has express no interest in him, and esp now when the president and the party which controls the WH and the Congress have benefited from his anti-democratic actions.

    He’s a delusional, misogynistic attention-seeker. Nothing more.

  19. Guytaur

    Quite

    When one US Presidential candidate is on record (even if joking) about the possibility of sending in a drone strike, I think that any normal person would try to work against that person.

    I know I would.

    Mind you there is absolutely NO evidence that the Democratic Party Leaks were linked to Russia. The now deceased Seth Rich is a much more likely suspect.

  20. “Freedom of speech is sacrosactin a genuine democracy even when you hate what others may say.”

    This is where our minds don’t meet.

    In UK / Australian legal history this is just not even close to true. And the most significant limitation isn’t national security laws, and I don’t think even with their massive unchecked growth they are even close yet, the most significant limitation is defamation law, a tool of the rich and powerful wielded against the population to silence them.

    If your average free speech advocate was fighting day and night to have defo law removed, I might not agree with them but I might respect them. At the moment it is a bit like the right to privacy where instinctively one feels one should have a right to privacy and that one should set the exceptions one’s self but like the absolute right to free speech it is legal and historic garbage to assert. The historic truth in English / Australian law was that you had NO right to privacy, so you know almost like the opposite of what is claimed / sought.

    The real questions have always been and will always remain to be what limits on privacy and free speech are appropriate. They are interesting and fertile grounds for legal and social reform and understanding. They are much less interesting when someone starts them with the absolutist non-sense that ignore our legal and social history.

  21. @guytaur

    That is more I can say for what I term the ‘Tony Abbott is right” I see on twitter, they are defending David Leyonhjelm all the way. I have seen some pretty disgusting remarks towards Sarah Hanson Young from them.

    Even if I shared with them a similar political outlook as these people. I would still condemn David Leyonhjelm sexist language and demand he apologize.

  22. Tristo

    Yes. Remember though you are talking about people that had no problem with the “Ditch the Witch” signs.

    Hillary Clinton correctly labelled these types as the Deplorables.

  23. For me there was only 1 question Assange had to answer.
    “Did you sexually penetrate a sleeping woman?”
    When asked in court his answers ranged with wtte of “define sleeping” to “yes but she didn’t object when she woke up”

  24. dtt

    I’m not saying English hasn’t produced great literature – I’m saying that every culture produces works of art (literature, art, music) which is great, and that we don’t know enough about it, as English speakers, to state that one culture or one aspect of it is ‘the best’.

    ‘in which case it is up to the people in those nations to translate the literature so we can all compare. ‘

    Well, first of all, no it isn’t.

    Secondly, translating every work of literature into English solves nothing. The act of translation changes the text – Sarah Bernhardt learnt English because Shakespeare, in French, loses its impact. I’ve read a couple of different translations of works such as “Madame Bovary” and it’s often hard to believe they are based on the same source. “The Koran’ in Arabic is reportedly a beautiful piece of writing, but it doesn’t translate that way, because the sounds of the words chosen are just as important as their meaning.

    Thirdly, your suggestion that other cultures have to step up to the plate to ‘prove’ their literary offerings are equivalent is far more insulting than anything I’ve written.

  25. “If the Archbishop doesn’t resign then the Catholic Church becomes a bigger laughing stock than it already is. How on earth can somebody who’s been convicted of knowing that children were being abused by a Catholic priest remain a bishop? If the Archbishop doesn’t resign the Pope needs to sack him. If the Pope won’t do it he becomes part of a laughing stock.” Peter Gogarty, a sexual abuse survivor, after Archbishop Philip Wilson was sentenced for concealing the crimes of a child sex offender priest.

    GG Should the pope sack Wilson? If not, why not?

  26. poroti:

    At the time Obama was asked about it and said the US had no interest in Assange.

    His groupies perpetuate the myth that he’s wanted by the US to feed his victim status.

  27. To be clear. I still think the incompetence of the Swedish prosecutor is why Assange never has had to go to court over the allegations and still has that unanswered in most people’s minds.

    Why? Thats a different question. Thats where I think we can apply blame when talking due process of law.

  28. guytaur

    I can’t see how the Swedish prosecutor was incompetent. Different countries have different processes and standards.

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