BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. Simon Katich… “WTF does Turnbull have to say? It is like he is somehow divorced from the harsher and dumber policies of his government – immune to all the fallout and angst which instead must be directed to Dutton or Abbott….. or Shorten FFS.”

    Not at all Simon, surely you should know by now that its all 100% the greens fault.

  2. Zoomster

    Eventually the Swedes did interview Assange outside Sweden. Thats what they should have done at the start. Plenty of precedent.

    Thats where I see the incompetence.

    As a result either a rapist walked free or an innocent man unfairly persecuted.

  3. I think any ‘incompetence’ on the part of Sweden fades into insignificance compared to Assange’s behaviour.

    They expected him to comply with the law. When they didn’t, they sought to extradite him. When they won that, they expected him to comply.

    You can’t run your legal system to fit in with the whims of one individual.

  4. Zoomster

    The point is that rape cases are very difficult to prove. Precedent applied to interview outside the country.

    Sure Assange may have come up with another excuse. However getting cooperative interviews helps you get a prosecution because you get the interview.

    Going out of your way to get cooperation turned into an adversial position just makes the prosecution case harder.

    There are legal opinions in Sweden that interviweing Assange in the UK was the way to go. As I said there has been precedent. Eventually thats what ended up happening and the case was dropped.

    If done in the first place maybe the result would have been different.

    We will now never know

  5. Inasmuch as Bludgers prefer to factually scrutinise rather than lazily stereotype, I offer the following evidence that the Yanks just might have had some capacity for self-mockery before “recently”. Not to slight, of course, Mark Twain who only wrote novels and did speaking tours (see Holbrook, Hal; ‘Mark Twain Tonight’ on YouTube).

    A century ago America’s first multimedia political humourist was the lifelong Democrat from an Oklahoma Cherokee reservation, Will Rogers. Becoming famous with a comedy routine while performing rope tricks in the Ziegfield Follies, he went on to be one of the country’s most popular stage/radio/film stars and wrote thousands of syndicated newspaper columns (akin to Judith Lucy, Richard Glover, Annabel Crabbe, and Andrew Denton).
    My favourite Will Rogers-isms:

    “I’m not a member of any organised political party. I’m a Democrat.”
    “There’s no trick to being a humourist when you have the whole government working for you.”
    “A fool and his money are soon elected.”
    “If you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is stop diggin.”
    “There are three kinds of learners:
    The ones that learn by reading.
    The few who learn by observation.
    The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.”

  6. Agree Prof H. The idea that Americans don’t get irony, and have tasteless beer for that matter, are stereotypes conceived in England and passed on to Australia when we took our cultural cues from them.

    Now that we get more of our culture from America is probably the reason people think their “problem with irony” is on the mend.

  7. Professor Higgins,
    I think the Native American has lost their sense of humour. They have agreed to run Donald Trump’s internment camps for the money he will give them to do it.

  8. Prof. Higgins

    There’s no trick to being a humourist when you have the whole government working for you.”

    That quote would be hanging on the wall of every cartoonist in Australia.

  9. guytaur @ #609 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 12:05 pm

    Zoomster

    The point is that rape cases are very difficult to prove. Precedent applied to interview outside the country.

    Sure Assange may have come up with another excuse. However getting cooperative interviews helps you get a prosecution because you get the interview.

    Going out of your way to get cooperation turned into an adversial position just makes the prosecution case harder.

    There are legal opinions in Sweden that interviweing Assange in the UK was the way to go. As I said there has been precedent. Eventually thats what ended up happening and the case was dropped.

    If done in the first place maybe the result would have been different.

    We will now never know

    Guytaur
    The obvious interpretation was that it was a set up by Swedish people to “get Assange” is clear from the on going actions.

    Let us look at the obvious.
    If for example we assume that there was no collusion whatever and that Assange (or some other non entity Australian – Bruce Smith) was genuinely assumed to be guilty as it as alleged what would have been the response by the Swedish government.

    First we know that Julian/Bruce did request an interview of some kind in Sweden, then eventually left for the UK. One the charge was brought what would have been the Swedish response to say Bruce Smith. Whatever way you look at it the charges against Assange were at the very lowest end of the spectrum. Sex without a condom and having a second go in the middle of the night following a voluntary effort a few hours earlier, while reprehensible are not exactly on the highest end of the spectrum and I suspect that if you guys out there searched your souls (and asked all your previous partners including some from your youth) you may find that you are also guilty as charged.

    The reality is that while the Swedish prosecutors would have chased up Bruce Smith and asked the UK police to serve him with a warrant etc they would not have done a lot more. Bruce would no doubt have been placed on some sort of watch list and be arrested should he set foot in Sweden again. However the case would not have attracted much effort – even interpol etc would not have been involved. It is unlikely the British police would have bothered to stop Bruce leaving the UK and coming home. Possibly the Swedish government would have followed up and advised the Australian police but I do not think they would have bothered with an extradition process. Indeed it is probable that the case would be totally ignored. In fact since Bruce was never charged with any offence it is likely that he would not even havegot a listing in Australian police files.

    OK so you can argue that Assange was a celebrity and needed special effort. OK so let us assume that Assange was a pop singer with a small cult following but had no political involvement of any kind. Let us now call him Johnny O’Connell. Because he is a celebrity the UK government makes the effort to properly serve the notice of Johnny and bring him in. The trial gets a bit of media coverage and Johnny holes up in a hotel demanding that he will not return to Sweden but that he is happy to be interviewed by prosecutors and if necessary accept being charged. The case becomes a minor cause with UK tabloids carrying on about the injustice etc. Eventually after 6 weeks of bad press the Swedish government would send the prosecutor over to the UK to at least interview Johnny and then decide if a full prosecution is warranted. In all probability they would have reached some sort of settlement with Johnny – contribute a generous sum to a charity of choice and never come back to Sweden. Case closed. they might have proceeded to full prosecution if they thought their case was very strong, but unless the matter was serious and the case watertight they would rationally have opted for some sort of face saving deal.

    The fact that Sweden did NOT follow this obvious strategy in the case of Assange is a clear indication that Assange had every right to be concerned.

  10. lizzie @ #603 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 11:46 am

    KayJay

    R U OK?
    I’m missing your little fantasies.

    I have been pondering whether you are well.

    I continue to read the posts and will contribute from time to time. I has occurred to me that blogging is a form of obsessive/compulsive disorder – of a relatively harmless variety.

    I have the most marvelous little fantasies, I compose fantastic poems and I become deeply engrossed in wonderful, intelligent conversation. Then the sun rises (hurrah) and I awake.

    Truly, I am well but since the PB time when a regular poster wondered “I think (feel) that I don’t belong” – I have been a little disenchanted ( a cyclic event of short duration). I have my usual medical problems, blood pressure , gord, heart regulation, none of which are a worry, and I have had a cancer removed from the back of my neck. Of course, I am looking forward with relish for my next colonoscopy later this year.

    Never mind, we survive and keep on.
    My counselling/support of my Canberra relatives keeps me both occupied and very busy.
    Thanks for the interest, I wish you and all Poll Bludgers well.

    Thanks also C@tmomma for your post.

  11. Question @ #613 Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 12:26 pm

    Agree Prof H. The idea that Americans don’t get irony (and have tasteless beer for that matter) are stereotypes conceived in England and passed on to Australia when we took our cultural cues from them.

    Now that we get more of our culture from America is probably the reason people think their “problem with irony” is on the mend.

    Question

    No I think that is unfair.

    One obvious difference is in the TV series produced in the UK/US. The British comedies used clever word play and parodies and understated humour whereas the US ones were full of obvious stuff as were their dramas. The yanks had nothing of the type of Monty Python or Goodies.

    Interestingly I think that the arrival of the Simpsons was the first sign of a shift in the US.

  12. Thanks also C@tmomma for your post.

    Not a problem. I wish all the best for you and yours. Good health and good cheer. 🙂

  13. KayJay

    I have been rather deeply engaged in setting up the architecture (posh sounding) of my new computer and I think I’ve got it sitting up and begging on command! On of the more time-consuming tasks is recreating the bookmarks as I did have rather a lot, not all of which are relevant now.

    The weather has not been kind, either. But my new little poodle is a delight.

    Cheers. 🙂

  14. Another Republican cheering for the Democrats.

    Ryan NoblesVerified account@ryanobles
    3h3 hours ago
    I think @TheRickWilson just made a little news just now on @CNN— told me he supports the Democrats winning a slim majority in the Congress in the fall.

  15. lizzie (Block)
    Sunday, July 8th, 2018 – 1:13 pm
    Comment #629

    A couple of my nurse friends used to tell me that they would like to come back as my dog, mainly because, I guess, that I would talk about Marie and Fonzie in equal measure.
    Kisses and pats for you and the dogs – spread equally.

    Good luck with your architecture and bookmarks. 😵

    ♡❤☮

  16. Interestingly I think that the arrival of the Simpsons was the first sign of a shift in the US.

    Americans got Monty Python (defying expectations). And should be pointed out one of them was from the US.

  17. GG, C@tmomma;

    Would it be fair to describe you as pro-establishment ?

    Maybe we could agree that the case is about pro vs anti-establishment agenda ?

  18. I see that Pompeo is in NK trying to fix Trump’s mess.
    The cheekiest NK response so far is that Pompeo is not paying proper respect to the Trump/Kim signed agreement.

  19. Holy smokes, I mean pre Simsons there was Naked Gun, Mel Brooks,Laverne and Shirley, Mork and Mindy, Marx Bros, Laugh-In, SNL, MASH, … heck I will add Looney Tunes, and of course, Dukes of Hazard (ok, maybe not.. but Daisy!). And I havent googled yet.
    Maybe there was more slapstick than clever but the clever was there.

  20. Simon² Katich® says: Sunday, July 8, 2018 at 1:53 pm

    Holy smokes, I mean pre Simsons there was Naked Gun, Mel Brooks,Laverne and Shirley, Mork and Mindy, Marx Bros, Laugh-In, SNL, MASH, … heck I will add Looney Tunes, and of course, Dukes of Hazard (ok, maybe not.. but Daisy!). And I havent googled yet.
    Maybe there was more slapstick than clever but the clever was there.

    *******************************************************

    and way before – there will never be another Laurel and Hardy ……

  21. I’m watching on SBS On Demand a French series of Agatha Christie stories. It’s quite quaint and I love seeing all the Renault 750s and Dauphines and Simca Vedette and the like running around.
    A 750 and a Simca Aronde were my first two cars. Ah . . . memories.

  22. P
    Trump doing keystone cops?
    One negotiating problem, as I see it, is that there is not much more the US can do short of actually starting a war.
    An interesting question would be the extent to which China has softened its contribution to sanctions now that NK and the US have signed a wonderful agreement in Singapore.

  23. Confessions says: Sunday, July 8, 2018 at 2:09 pm

    Maybe there was more slapstick than clever but the clever was there.

    I Love Lucy: the queen of slapstick.

    ********************************************

    Confessions – my all time favourite – when Lucy and Ethel wrap chocolates from a conveyor belt

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmAwcMNxGqM

  24. c@tmomma,

    I had assumed all anti-authoritarian/ anti-establishment people would have some respect for him for what he has done on that front, not many people in the same league as him there.

    But if you cant see past the accusation made against him thats for you, but he surviving worse conditions than most prisoners are kept it. Most prisoners get visitors, are allowed hours of exercise time, and even prisoners at Guantanamo bay have access to medical care.

    Most people should be able to see he deserves to be treated better even from a most basic humanitarian level.

  25. poroti
    When I first started work at Chrysler as a 16 year old they were still assembling Simca Arondes and Vedettes. As well as the bodies for the Jindavik pilotless jets.

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