The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, and The Guardian report provides full primary votes for a change: both major parties are up two, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 6%, with the “others” vote presumably well down. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which tell a remarkably similar story to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up one to 43%, his best result since March 2016, and his disapproval is down two to 40%, his best since the eve of the July 2016 election; while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 31% and up one to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out to 42-25, compared with 41-27 last time.
The Essential poll also finds only 15% of respondents expect the government’s national energy guarantee will reduce power prices, compared with 22% for increasing them (down nine since the same question was asked last October) and 38% for making no difference (up seven). The government’s proposed tax cuts for big companies have 41% support, up four on a month or so ago, with 36% opposed, down one. Further on company tax cuts, The Australian has a comprehensive set of further results from the weekend’s Newspoll, which find respondents tending to be persuaded that the cuts will be good for employment (50% responded cuts would create more jobs versus 36% who said they would not, and 43% believed repealing them would put jobs at risk versus 37% saying they would not), yet 52% supported Bill Shorten saying cuts for businesses with $10 million to $50 million turnover would be repeated if won office, versus only 37% opposed.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.
You don’t understand. Murdoch doesn’t need to consider every little thing personally. It’s a well known fact that his editors around the globe know what to do in order to keep their jobs.
The Australian posted this bit on the front page but the article itself does not mention the ‘condition’
“I’ll say sorry, with conditions
4:55AMGREG BROWN, RAC
“RACHEL BAXENDALE
David Leyonhjelm has delivered a list of conditions in return for an apology to Sarah Hanson-Young for coarse remarks about her”
https://outline.com/nHXJEG
C@t: “…it seems as though this, Union proud man-of-the-people stuff IS working with those that count the most. Not the newspaper publishers and the media owners, and the pusillanimous toadies who work for them and churn out the anti Labor bilgewater, day in, day out, for their supper, but with the people who have been keeping Labor at ~52% in the polls against the Coalition for the last 2 years now and just want to vote out this foetid, self-serving, habitat-destroying, inequality-increasing Tory Turnbull government!”
I learnt back in 1975 that the feelings of people you see on the street, turning up to rallies, etc. isn’t a particularly good gauge of how the mass of people are going to vote. Of course, the polling is a fair bit better for Labor now than it was in 1975.
As I have been saying, perhaps the Labor brains trust understands something about the electorate that I don’t. Maybe the class war thing does get traction with voters because Turnbull is ostentatiously and unashamedly rich. I would have thought that, in a time of uncertainty, many swinging voters would prefer to have a rich man running the country because they would trust him not to mess up the economy through an ill-timed attempt to redistribute wealth. They do appear to prefer Turnbull to Shorten, but they don’t prefer the Coalition to Labor. It’s a bit puzzling: we’ll need some actual voting – eg, in the by-elections – to have a better idea of what’s really going on.
If they read this I hope it doesn’t give the Coalition any ideas
.
“Judge says there’s no fundamental right to learn to read and write
Few could dispute the importance of literacy. But children have no fundamental right to learn to read and write, according to a federal judge whose ruling in a closely watched lawsuit Friday left some disheartened and others raising questions.
“I’m shocked,” said Ivy Bailey, president of the Detroit Federation of Teachers. …………..
The ruling came in a federal lawsuit that was closely watched across the U.S. because of its potential impact: Filed on behalf of Detroit students, it sought to hold a dozen state officials — including Gov. Rick Snyder — accountable for what plaintiffs said were systemic failures that deprived Detroit children of their right to literacy.
The lawsuit sought remedies that included literacy reforms, a systemic approach to instruction and intervention, as well as fixes to crumbling Detroit schools.”
https://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2018/07/01/detroit-literacy-education-rights/748052002/
p
In the TrumpWorld, the plaintiffs are lucky the Judge did tell the students to go back where they came from.
Here’s the list of businesses committed to retaining penalty rates
http://businesses4penaltyrates.com.au/
Cohen would know more than any other single individual where Trump’s cemetery full of skeletons are buried. After all, Cohen helped bury Trump’s skeletons. Over many, many decades.
If Cohen flips comprehensively, Trump is truly stuffed.
That David Rowe cartoon is a corker
In mebar baba a Coalition supporter able to use more than 3 words in attempting to present as anti Coaltion but undermining Shorten because of his Union background and Labor
Polling is indicative only evidencing a trend – from a start point being the result of the last election, an election which saw a government elected with a one seat majority and its strength in Queensland and in West Australia both of which States have since elected majority Labor governments
The same conclusion applies to unemployment- the unemployment figure is a nonsense with the only meaning being the trend line
Political history is that governments are defeated because across their policy suit they disenfranchise
Look at the Howard administration as an example – there was no one issue
There was a range of issues those issues impacting on some but not on others but delivering the result
With the subsequent Labor administration it was managed and focused being “Stop the boats” and “Stop the tax” (multiple taxes being the rental resource tax and the price on carbon)
My observations are the the current Turnbull government is vulnerable across a raft of policy and non policy including because of the impact on Australians going about their daily lives meeting their household budgets, this also being impacted by the 350% growth in our home mortgage debt from 2000 until our banks stopped lending post the GFC in 2008 – so a slow burner but by its very presence remaining central
Then we get to employment, not only wages stagnating but the sheer impact of work place pressures and the buzz word of productivity which results in “reducing head counts”
Telstra and the NAB then crystallise the inherent fear
So, despite the Tory cheer leader Murdoch producing poll results saying that tax cuts will see increased numbers in employment and wages growth – so magic cure all pudding stuff – the fear is the opposite and confirmed by retail and former bank branch vacancies and “Sale” signs being a constant
Then there is the GST
The household budget is under pressure – and the work/home balance is under pressure with a government which defines all problems cured by getting a job – or getting a better job
With every message being that getting a job is the cure aka the grating Cash yesterday – or getting a better job
Including to access Child Care
It is not only Cash that is grating it is the government
The balance in favour of Capital and borrowers has persisted for far too long with historically low interest rates since the GFC and stagnant wages growth now for 4 years
Balance has to shift to also include labour and savers because that is where the real pressure not only is but will be
As Gittens says, it is not tax, stupid
Read Stiglitz
zoomster @ #58 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 5:47 am
What an unfortunately short list.
Well done to those on it.
Getting two votes from the Repuglicans in the US to block a Supreme Court nominee is not the only problem the Dems have. They also need to prevent some of their members from voting in favour of any far right nominee.
If Turnbull’s stinky govt didn’t get a swing towards it at the last election, it’s stinkier govt won’t get one at the next election. I suspect that the lib vote in the polls is a lot softer than Labor’s and a lot of people are backing stability rather than the govt. Watch it peel off when the election is called.
citizen @ #37 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 8:00 am
You don’t horse trade over decency and respect!
Absolutely. But first battle first. Ensure Trump’s nominees are properly vetted by Congress, not just rubber stamped.
C@tmomma @ #65 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 5:59 am
It’s most of the cross bench’s mantra;
Everything’s for sale!! 🙁
The aggravation of the defamatory statement can up the damages significantly.
Repeating the comment, not shying away from it and then engaging in half arsed negotiating all sound like major aggravations.
poroti @ #52 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 6:30 am
The actual headline on the article itself states:
I’m not sure why the “front page” headline is what it is, or even if they’re promoting some sort of agenda with it.
http://outline.com/nHXJEG
PhoenixRED@7:28am
It is not very clear to me how Justine Kennedy helped Jared Kushner through LNR property regarding 666 Fifth Avenue property (I understand that the special servicer Vornado is part owner of LNR).
How does Anthony Kennedy resigning as Supreme Court Justice helps Drumpf?
There is question in the article “what did the President’s children do for Justine Kennedy?”. How is it linked to Justice Kennedy resignation?
BTW did you notice the street number of the above building? 666 (number of anti-christ)? Coincidental?
Shellbell @ #68 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 6:05 am
Dig, dig, dig. 🙂
Think it’s been conclusively proven that SenL isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed.
SH-Y was interviewed on ABC RN this morning:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-03/david-leyonhjelm-sarah-hanson-young-slut-shaming-shagging-men/9934114
meher baba,
I learnt back in 1975 that the feelings of people you see on the street, turning up to rallies, etc. isn’t a particularly good gauge of how the mass of people are going to vote. Of course, the polling is a fair bit better for Labor now than it was in 1975.
The only ones turning up to the rally were me and a few retired friends in the Labor Party. We are not who I was talking about. I was talking about the random people who got off the train and walked by and the random people who drove by and noticed who was there. Completely. Random. Individuals.
As I have been saying, perhaps the Labor brains trust understands something about the electorate that I don’t. Maybe the class war thing does get traction with voters because Turnbull is ostentatiously and unashamedly rich. I would have thought that, in a time of uncertainty, many swinging voters would prefer to have a rich man running the country because they would trust him not to mess up the economy through an ill-timed attempt to redistribute wealth. They do appear to prefer Turnbull to Shorten, but they don’t prefer the Coalition to Labor.
Or, you could read this article:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/02/the-demerit-system-is-ruthless-social-policy-designed-to-keep-the-poor-powerless
and this one:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/world-s-economic-party-over-as-warning-signs-flash-red-20180702-p4zoy1.html
and conclude that the electorate might still have fresh in their memory banks which particular party of government it was who saved their families and their breadwinner’s jobs and their dignity through the last great global financial crisis, and which group in parliament, the Coalition, couldn’t give a stuff and voted against the proposed remedies at the time, and thus decide to vote again for the party who will step up again to the challenge, on their behalf.
You see, meher baba, you can slice and dice this argument both ways. 🙂
A few days ago CEDA released the report of its first nation-wide poll of community attitudes to growth and development. – Community pulse 2018: the economic disconnect.
https://www.ceda.com.au/Research-and-policy/Community-pulse-2018-the-economic-disconnect
Obrador – not quite a progressive:
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/02/opinions/lopez-obrador-perfect-foil-trump-driver/index.html
Will be interesting if SHY actually sues. It has the potential to be an Oscar Wilde style litigation outcome.
https://newmatilda.com/2018/07/03/not-cocky-david-leyonhjelm-eviscerated-abcs-virginia-trioli-sarah-hanson-young-slur/
Which shows that Shorten’s decision to back down over the tax cuts was the right one IMO. If he hadn’t, the government and MSM would still be all over that, drowning out anything else that Labor was trying to say and providing a smoke screen for the government’s own problems.
Back downs are not uncommon in politics. Howard was a past master at them when required. His back down on the issue of fuel excise which was hurting them badly in the polls is one that comes readily to mind and there were others.
Bob Hawke backed down on the Australia card and then later on, his decision to time charge local telephone calls, after the party lost a by-election over the issue in Adelaide. More recently, Tony Abbott was forced to back down on his extravagant maternity leave proposal and Malcolm Turnbull has backed down on just about everything he once believed in, plus everything he put on that famous table for discussion after he became PM.
So Bill Shorten’s decision is hardly exceptional.
Confessions @ #72 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 6:09 am
Yes and no.
I think to him it’s political and he’s just pushing his libertarian ideals which can create a very black and white world with little resemblance to reality.
He should follow SHY and get some legal advice.
Of course this is really an attack on his right to free speech! 🙂
Ven says: Tuesday, July 3, 2018 at 9:08 am
PhoenixRED@7:28am
It is not very clear to me how Justine Kennedy helped Jared Kushner through LNR property regarding 666 Fifth Avenue property (I understand that the special servicer Vornado is part owner of LNR).
How does Anthony Kennedy resigning as Supreme Court Justice helps Drumpf?
*******************************************************
Hi Ven
I am reading US political commentator Bill Palmers take on it : just speculation at the moment but ……
This week Anthony Kennedy shocked everyone by announcing that he was abruptly resigning from the Supreme Court, after it had already been widely reported that he’d gone so far has to pick his clerks for the upcoming sessions. This handed Donald Trump the opportunity to pick one of the judges who will ultimately decide his fate, once he begins making desperate and unconstitutional last ditch moves such as trying to pardon himself. Now it turns out it’s a very short and straight line from Kennedy to the Trump-Russia money trail to Donald Trump.
Anthony Kennedy’s son Justin Kennedy was a Deutsche Bank executive during the period of time in which the bank was floating suspicious loans to Donald Trump, even after he’d become such a poor credit risk that no other major bank would touch him. He wasn’t just any executive, either. The New York Times reports” that the younger Kennedy “worked closely with Mr. Trump when he was a real estate developer.”
So a Supreme Court Justice’s son used his position at a major bank to steer absurdly inappropriate loans to Donald Trump, at the same time that bank just happened to be laundering billions of dollars of Russian money into clients in the city where Trump lived, even as Russia was working to get Trump elected President, and now that Justice is stepping down at just the right time to help Trump. Either this is the grandest coincidence of all time, or a United States Supreme Court Justice has been a part of the Trump-Russia plot all along. Take your pick, but this isn’t some idle conspiracy theory. Kennedy and his son look guilty as hell, and that’s grounds for a criminal investigation.
Just saw this comment – need to check :
And the other son worked for Cambridge Analytica- no shit you can’t make it up.
Edwina StJohn @ #77 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 6:20 am
That is the problem here, the comments were completely inappropriate and irrelevant to the debate and any position SHY has advocated publicly.
But … 🙁
Indeed Barney it’s a big but.
There is a big danger in hearking back to 1975 or even earlier when comparing electorate reaction. A lot of people here lament that ALP is not what it used to be and say that we need to get back to our foundations.
Today we have: a large proportion of the population have no idea what happened then either because they are too young or are immigrants. These people DO NOT GIVE A CRAP about what happened to Whitlam (I say this with a touch of sadness as he was my local member as a child). NOR do many of them care about Howard or even Rudd.
They just see the world as it is now. Sometimes I think many get distracted by their own projection from the past and fail to see the current situation clearly.
THis happens just as much with the media.
I’m no defo lawyer, but I suspect that if SHY sues, truth will be no defence (as the defamation was not in the public interest). Thus the only leg the defendants might have to stand on was that there was no defamation. Good luck with that one, David.
Shellbell @ #67 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 9:05 am
What about the media organisations that have given him a venue to repeat these statements, such as the ABC?
I think that in their desire to inflame the controversy, they have been potentially unwise.
meher baba
Your narrative is overly simplistic, glosses over detail, and so is likely wrong.
Let me present a narrative that is more simplistic, glosses over more detail and so is likely more wrong:
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me a third time …
After Bill’s call ( which happened to have majority support in the latest poll….) one would expect the CPG/ Murdoch Press to have a field day- but, guess what? The Coalition,courtesy of one of its hardest right-wing supporters this time, kicks yet another own goal and diverts attention away, yet again.
Turnbull has to come out and criticize, in the strongest terms, Leyonhelm’s reprehensible comments.
The question is… will Turnbull do that, or will he soft-pedal in order not to upset his numbers in the Senate? Keep in mind, even his bete-noir, Abbott, has done a hatchet job on Leyonhelm. (Not that Abbott cares about SHY’s feelings, but anything to kick Turnbull…….
adrian @ #86 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 6:32 am
Why do you highlight the ABC, they seem to be one that has challenged his comments and his subsequent position an appropriate response I would think.
It’s others like Sky and 2GB that have inflamed the situation.
Your anti-ABC reflex seems to be causing you problems here. 🙂
Where IS Malcolm Turnbull!?! Hiding away from the Leyonhjelm-SHY controversy in Point Piper?
Barney in Go Dau @ #88 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 9:38 am
Whatever.
Apparently he repeated his comments three times on Richard Glover’s ABC radio drive show. So that’s two opportunities on the ABC in one evening.
If you don’t see that as a problem, I really couldn’t give a stuff.
Edweeeena, better be careful. I think there may be a defamatory imputation in your post. Are you worth suing?
meher baba @ 8.41
One side’s “class war” is another side’s “fairness”. My guess is that there’s a pretty widely held sense in the electorate now that if you are rich and/or powerful and/or well-connected, you can get away with more these days than you could, say, in the earlier periods you have mentioned. The various Royal Commissions have tended to confirm that.
Appealing to those who are aspirational is fine, but I suspect that a lot of people have had the aspirations largely knocked out of them, because they are finding that basic stuff like owning their own home is getting unachievable, and they are having to work harder (without penalty rates in some cases) just to hang on. Mr Shorten seems to me to be tapping effectively into the same sorts of feelings that the supposedly unelectable Jeremy Corbyn did in the UK last year, but in a rather less strident way.
And I’m really not so sure that being seen to be associated with unions is a bad thing. There’s a sub-group within the right who have an almost demented hatred of unions: they are well represented in the Comments which appear below stories in The Australian. But the days in which unions were hugely annoying and disruptive to large numbers of people – for example, when they would pull on a transport strike at the time of a major public holiday – are long gone, and I suspect that a lot of people, while not necessarily lovers of unions, don’t love big business or oppressive employers either, and see unions as providing a bit of desirable counterbalance to the latter’s power.
True!
😆
In 1975, Labor received just under 43 percent of the primary vote and got massacred.
These days they can win with about 36 percent.
Golly, the numbers escalated quickly.
Chavez y Maduro have now managed to chase 1.7 million Venezuelans out of Venezuela. But is it the push factors or the pull factors?
Ven says:
Tuesday, July 3, 2018 at 9:08 am PhoenixRED@7:28am
*********************************************************
just more rabbit holes to go down – it is amazing how all these links exist ….
Greg Kennedy, Justice Kennedy’s OTHER son, landed a job at NASA as a senior financial adviser after Trump was inaugurated. He’s part of a special team Trump installed to keep an eye on the agency. He also worked for Cambridge Analytica & Russian financed Palanatir Technologies.
Cornelia @PaladinCornelia
Well now…since you mention Justice Kennedy’d daughter…there is something which involves her husband.
Kristin Kennedy’s husband, John D. Clark, is a managing partner with CVC Capital which just happens to stand to benefit from Trump’s immigration policy…
Trump’s hidden back channel to Justice Kennedy: Their kids
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/donald-trump-supreme-court-236925
The Kennedy, Kushner, and Trump Connection: A Curious Conversation and A Business Deal
https://medium.com/@gaberusk/the-kennedy-kushner-and-trump-connection-a-curious-conversation-and-a-business-deal-c81dd578ce83
Just for balance – Where is Shorten? Has he publicly denounced L?
Barney in Go Dau @ #81 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 9:26 am
Yes. However there’s nothing tortious about making inappropriate, irrelevant, or even deliberately hurtful comments.
A defamation case would seemingly hinge on the comments 1) being false (or at least, not demonstrably true), and 2) damaging to SHY’s reputation in some tangible way.
#2 is pretty easy, given that SHY is a politician and could be out of a job if people stop voting for her.
#1 has the potential to become an absolute circus, if things end up in court. The onus would be on Leyonhjelm to demonstrate that his imputations about SHY are accurate. Who knows what he’ll try?
Pegasus @ #97 Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018 – 9:56 am
I was with Bill Shorten yesterday, and, yes he did.
Keep up, Pegasus. 🙂
I finally found some footage of ESJ! She is up front in the video:
https://youtu.be/reTx5sqvVJ4
🙂