Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Both parties up on the primary vote in the latest Essential poll, which concurs with Newspoll in finding Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings edging upwards and Bill Shorten’s edging down.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, and The Guardian report provides full primary votes for a change: both major parties are up two, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 6%, with the “others” vote presumably well down. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which tell a remarkably similar story to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up one to 43%, his best result since March 2016, and his disapproval is down two to 40%, his best since the eve of the July 2016 election; while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 31% and up one to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out to 42-25, compared with 41-27 last time.

The Essential poll also finds only 15% of respondents expect the government’s national energy guarantee will reduce power prices, compared with 22% for increasing them (down nine since the same question was asked last October) and 38% for making no difference (up seven). The government’s proposed tax cuts for big companies have 41% support, up four on a month or so ago, with 36% opposed, down one. Further on company tax cuts, The Australian has a comprehensive set of further results from the weekend’s Newspoll, which find respondents tending to be persuaded that the cuts will be good for employment (50% responded cuts would create more jobs versus 36% who said they would not, and 43% believed repealing them would put jobs at risk versus 37% saying they would not), yet 52% supported Bill Shorten saying cuts for businesses with $10 million to $50 million turnover would be repeated if won office, versus only 37% opposed.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Pegasus @ #1742 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 7:30 am

    C

    Danby announces his retirement and he gets dumped on. No rant from you or anyone else in response. Macklin goes and I dare to link to a couple of posts critical of her without adding any rabid, bloviating ad-hominems and I am the devil incarnate.

    Thin-skinned – Yeah.

    Unlike you with Macklin, I couldn’t think of any positives in Danby’s contribution.

    Before Mitch Fifield came along he was probably one of the most vocal and active complainers against the ABC in Parliament.

  2. The last time I heard something good from the Greens was when they were in Minority with the Labor government.

    But since they changed leaders, they are rather snipy and personal.

  3. The good part about the latest exchanges of tribalism is that for those familiar with ms macklin, know that it would be creating quite a cackle and good luck to her

  4. One of the upsides to recuperating from surgery and being housebound, is I can spend more time on PB engaged in civil and courteous dialogue.

    One month on, with months of painful recovery to go, there is always something to be grateful for.

  5. “The ABC has decided not to proceed with the next series of consumer affairs show The Checkout, which was about to go into production.

    Reasons given: budget cuts and high cost of production.”

    This was one show which only a non-commercial broadcaster could make. 🙁

  6. OK,enough! I realize The Greens as a political Party wish to make their own mark and differentiate themselves from Labor. But when we are stuck with the most malignant, selfish and unfair Government I known in all my adult years, Labor and Greens supporters trading blows on this blog is an absolute waste of time and effort, as well as absolutely misdirected. Hopefully, if and when a Labor government is installed, and has to deal with Greens in the Senate, then both groups can really set out to diffentiate themselves. I believe both Parties have many worthwhile policies. But there is an insidious Government to be defeated, and both Parties need to work together to do so.
    Having said that, I am not dismissing the proposition put out there that maybe some malicious Coalition posters on this blog trying to create mischief. Nothing would surprise me what this Government and its supporters would try to do.
    So please, supporters of both Parties, cease this wasteful and absolutely counter-productive sniping. A fair and equitable Australia is under attack.

  7. Pegasus @ #1755 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:53 am

    One of the upsides to recuperating from surgery and being housebound, is I can spend more time on PB engaged in civil and courteous dialogue.

    One month on, with months of painful recovery to go, there is always something to be grateful for.

    Find a nice warm spot in the sun Peg and go well. 🙂

  8. One thing is for certain, Jenny Macklin will have a splendid political career of achievement to reflect upon in her retirement.

    The Greens Snarkers have nothing but jealousy and envy.

  9. Onebobsworth @ #1757 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:59 am

    OK,enough! I realize The Greens as a political Party wish to make their own mark and differentiate themselves from Labor. But when we are stuck with the most malignant, selfish and unfair Government I known in all my adult years, Labor and Greens supporters trading blows on this blog is an absolute waste of time and effort, as well as absolutely misdirected. Hopefully, if and when a Labor government is installed, and has to deal with Greens in the Senate, then both groups can really set out to diffentiate themselves. I believe both Parties have many worthwhile policies. But there is an insidious Government to be defeated, and both Parties need to work together to do so.
    Having said that, I am not dismissing the proposition put out there that maybe some malicious Coalition posters on this blog trying to create mischief. Nothing would surprise me what this Government and its supporters would try to do.
    So please, supporters of both Parties, cease this wasteful and absolutely counter-productive sniping. A fair and equitable Australia is under attack.

    Well, if the Labor party didn’t cravenly fall in behind so much RW nuttery there wouldn’t be so much conflict with the Greens Party.

  10. lizzie @ #1757 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:56 am

    “The ABC has decided not to proceed with the next series of consumer affairs show The Checkout, which was about to go into production.

    Reasons given: budget cuts and high cost of production.”

    This was one show which only a non-commercial broadcaster could make. 🙁

    Probably too controversial for the ABC, though it was pitched to an audience somewhere between a nine and twelve year old with attention deficit disorder.

  11. The link is now up on ABC RN Breakfast:

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/political-stoush-sparks-debate/9947668

    A stoush over sexism in parliament has been the big talking point out of Canberra this week.
    ::::
    The stoush has sparked a bigger conversation about the conduct of our politicians as well as Australia’s own national character.

    Panel: Michelle Grattan, Chief Political Correspondent, Conversation; professorial Fellow at Canberra University
    Miranda Devine, Columnist, News Corp
    Professor Gillian Triggs, Chair, Justice Connect; Former President, Human Rights Commission

  12. The retirements of Macklin and Danby and Wayne Swan a few weeks ago means Labor are clearing the decks to have new candidates out campaigning early for the expected early election.

  13. Adrian

    One huge benefit of the broadband age is not having to watch the ABC to avoid commercial tv.
    After all the ABC seems to be retirement home for the Doug Anthony nostars & the Chaser team.

  14. Pegasus @ #1765 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 11:11 am

    The link is now up on ABC RN Breakfast:

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/political-stoush-sparks-debate/9947668

    A stoush over sexism in parliament has been the big talking point out of Canberra this week.
    ::::
    The stoush has sparked a bigger conversation about the conduct of our politicians as well as Australia’s own national character.

    Panel: Michelle Grattan, Chief Political Correspondent, Conversation; professorial Fellow at Canberra University
    Miranda Devine, Columnist, News Corp
    Professor Gillian Triggs, Chair, Justice Connect; Former President, Human Rights Commission

    Pegasus, I haven’t heard the broadcast, but why is it that the ABC seems to think it is obligated in the name of faux ‘balance’ to provide your standard RWNJ or IPA member as a counterpoint to a reasonable centrist such as Gillian Triggs?

  15. ABC has axed the checkout.

    I only watched once because it was basically a kids show in prime time BUT Australian content is being either ditched, or ABC is buying reruns from Foxtel production (and isn’t Rupert rubbing his hands together when they gazump ABC)

  16. john Howard helped kick off Vic state Libs campaign this week.
    Their slogan.
    Make Victoria safe again.
    How predictable and truly pathetic
    Makes me want to vomit

  17. Commonwealth’s High Court challenge to the SA’s inquiry into the MDB requiring Commonwealth witnesses to attend and documents to be produced will be heard in September or October.

  18. Pruitt resignation
    A small excerpt from the brown nosed sycophant (Sorry if already posted.)

    “My desire in service to you has always been to bless you as you make important decisions for the American people. I believe you are serving as President today because of God’s providence. I believe that same providence brought me into your service. I pray as I have served you that I have blessed you and enabled you to effectively lead the American people. Thank you again Mr. President for the honor of serving you and I wish you Godspeed in all that you put your hand to.”

    Your Faithful Friend,
    Scott Pruitt

    Only in America !

  19. Related to nothing in particular: whenever I watch daytime commercial TV it is filled with adverts for funeral or life insurance.

  20. Insider retirements are always a proxy for their own private win assessment of government. The hacks like vamvakinou of course will hang on for dear life regardless.

  21. Peg ‘I am an individual, an ordinary citizen, who chose to join the Greens Party.’

    Good on you, but as a Green you are allowed to bag the LNP, but it just doesn’t happen.

    For instance, Rex above, blames his bagging of Labor because it cravenly falls in behind RW nuttery (or WTTE as I can’t double copy some text).

    What he doesn’t do is bag the RW nuttery that Labor is supposedly falling in behind.

    This makes me think he is really a Liberal pretending to be a Green.

  22. adrian

    Despite the differences of opinion held by the panelists, it was a respectful and civil discussion. That’s a good thing.

    I would rather be exposed to a range of views than listening to nodding heads all in agreement.

  23. Jenny Mac, Danby and WSwan were almost ready to retire at last election. Totally expected them not to contest next election.

  24. Unfortunately, law and order issues cut through.

    Evidence-based statistics indicating the crime rate is falling doesn’t.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorians-more-worried-about-crime-than-commute-times-survey-finds-20180702-p4zp1m.html

    Violence in homes and communities and tougher treatment for criminals are among the top issues for Victorians according to a new poll of the nation’s concerns.

    The Council for the Economic Development of Australia survey explored issues that matter to Australians in an effort to understand whether people feel they are reaping the benefits of decades of prosperity.

    Despite Melbourne’s growing congestion problems “reduced commuting times” was found to be one of the least important areas to Victorians even though they reported taking longer on average to get to work.

    But in a finding that will encourage the state Coalition in its law and order pitch for November’s election, the council found crime and punishment among the top “personal issues” among Victorians polled.

  25. Actually, this kind of clean out happened in Victoria just before Bracks had his surprise win.

    It was (by insiders) credited at the time with the turn around in Labor’s fortunes, with the philosophy being that once you’ve been in Parliament twenty years, and held Ministerial positions, you’ve probably achieved most of what you aimed to (and can still provide advice from the sidelines).

    In contrast, the Liberals did nothing to remove old Kennett lags, which continued to hold them back – it takes longer to forget why you hated a particular government or believe that things won’t be different this time around, if the same old faces keep popping up.

  26. Rex, ‘Indeed. Yet another campaign of fear and negativity from the conservatives. They’re hopeless.’

    FMD. You did it.

  27. The logic of labor perpetually attacking the Greens escapes me too. Sooner or later you will be embracing the wattle comrades.

  28. Rex Douglas @ #1761 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 11:03 am

    Onebobsworth @ #1757 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:59 am

    OK,enough! I realize The Greens as a political Party wish to make their own mark and differentiate themselves from Labor. But when we are stuck with the most malignant, selfish and unfair Government I known in all my adult years, Labor and Greens supporters trading blows on this blog is an absolute waste of time and effort, as well as absolutely misdirected. Hopefully, if and when a Labor government is installed, and has to deal with Greens in the Senate, then both groups can really set out to diffentiate themselves. I believe both Parties have many worthwhile policies. But there is an insidious Government to be defeated, and both Parties need to work together to do so.
    Having said that, I am not dismissing the proposition put out there that maybe some malicious Coalition posters on this blog trying to create mischief. Nothing would surprise me what this Government and its supporters would try to do.
    So please, supporters of both Parties, cease this wasteful and absolutely counter-productive sniping. A fair and equitable Australia is under attack.

    Well, if the Labor party didn’t cravenly fall in behind so much RW nuttery there wouldn’t be so much conflict with the Greens Party.

    And there you have, in a nutshell, why there is so much Labor/Green animosity on this site.

  29. Pegasus @ #1786 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 11:25 am

    adrian

    Despite the differences of opinion held by the panelists, it was a respectful and civil discussion. That’s a good thing.

    I would rather be exposed to a range of views than listening to nodding heads all in agreement.

    Well that was not what I was suggesting at all, but if you want to ignore the point, go ahead…

  30. Lizzie

    Related to nothing in particular: whenever I watch daytime commercial TV it is filled with adverts for funeral or life insurance.

    If you watch daytime TV, you have given up on life. 😉

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