Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Both parties up on the primary vote in the latest Essential poll, which concurs with Newspoll in finding Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings edging upwards and Bill Shorten’s edging down.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, and The Guardian report provides full primary votes for a change: both major parties are up two, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 6%, with the “others” vote presumably well down. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which tell a remarkably similar story to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up one to 43%, his best result since March 2016, and his disapproval is down two to 40%, his best since the eve of the July 2016 election; while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 31% and up one to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out to 42-25, compared with 41-27 last time.

The Essential poll also finds only 15% of respondents expect the government’s national energy guarantee will reduce power prices, compared with 22% for increasing them (down nine since the same question was asked last October) and 38% for making no difference (up seven). The government’s proposed tax cuts for big companies have 41% support, up four on a month or so ago, with 36% opposed, down one. Further on company tax cuts, The Australian has a comprehensive set of further results from the weekend’s Newspoll, which find respondents tending to be persuaded that the cuts will be good for employment (50% responded cuts would create more jobs versus 36% who said they would not, and 43% believed repealing them would put jobs at risk versus 37% saying they would not), yet 52% supported Bill Shorten saying cuts for businesses with $10 million to $50 million turnover would be repeated if won office, versus only 37% opposed.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. C@tmomma @ #1677 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 6:42 am

    lizzie @ #1675 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 9:38 am

    C@t

    You may not have noticed that I previously posted compliments from Shorten and others.

    It’s not a zero sum game in this instance, lizzie. Discretion is the better part of valour on this occasion I feel.

    Bullshit.

    lizzie is the only one here who has actually provided balance in looking at Macklin’s career.

    She did good and she did not so good! 🙂

  2. sustainable future @ #1684 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 9:49 am

    Macklin will be missed in a way that Danby won’t be. I hope labor has a woman (or women) of similar compassion and talent to replace her (them). One of the great things about the Greens is that labor will feel the need to put forward progressives (and not right wind dead-weights like Dave Feeny) in once blue ribbon labor seats. The many refugees from the labor left in the greens must appreciate the irony that they couldn’t have dreamed of getting as many progressives up in those seats before.

    Plus ca change, sustainable future. And a good thing. However, it also highlights the fact that the sensible people who truly want to make Left, Left of Centre change, join and remain in the Labor Party so that they can bring about the change they want to see by being a part of a party of government and not a fringe party that won’t ever see the government benches.

  3. Barney in Go Dau @ #1702 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:05 am

    C@tmomma @ #1677 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 6:42 am

    lizzie @ #1675 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 9:38 am

    C@t

    You may not have noticed that I previously posted compliments from Shorten and others.

    It’s not a zero sum game in this instance, lizzie. Discretion is the better part of valour on this occasion I feel.

    Bullshit.

    lizzie is the only one here who has actually provided balance in looking at Macklin’s career.

    She did good and she did not so good! 🙂

    Nope. You are missing my point. Tomorrow, fine. Today, not so much.

    Anyway, that’s just my unbalanced opinion. 🙂

  4. PeeBee (and others),

    I am an individual, an ordinary citizen, who chose to join the Greens Party.

    The need to constantly stereotype **all** Greens (supporters, members parliamentarians…) as holding the same values, attitudes, etc as me is facile, pathetic and unnecessary.

    Perhaps the need to stereotype indicates the general underlying hatred, loathing, contempt, disdain, etc that some Labor tribalists have for Greens in general.

    Irrationality rules.

  5. Meanwhile on Nauru:

    Kiera
    ‏ @KieraGorden
    Mar 25

    Oh my goodness, this story about the 10yo on Nauru is absolutely and utterly heartbreaking. Peter Dutton is a f**king MONSTER! Pls RT so everyone knows about this. #SackDutton #AusPol

  6. Rex Douglas @ #1697 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 9:59 am

    The ugly bullying of Pegasus simply for adding some balance on Macklins career is unedifying.

    No wonder Macklin is walking away given such the ugly Labor types in the ranks.

    Nope. No balance, just pointing out failures at the expense of all else about Macklin. From the get-go.

  7. Pegasus @ #1679 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 6:45 am

    Barney in DG

    Of course Macklin made positive contributions.

    My 2 post on her provided the balance to the ‘St Macklin’ portrayal of her going on here.

    There were policies implemented by her under her ministerialship and the Labor party that were widely criticised at the time for their detrimental effects.

    I do not resile from highlighting this.

    … even though I completely ignored and failed to mention her “positive contributions.”

    You are full of it!

  8. @BB – 9:37am

    Solid post mate. The deck is stacked. The dice loaded. This year’s revenue windfall will allow the government to skate through the election if the CGP and MSM have any say in it. “Labor’s tax grab” (i.e. the meticulous approach to diffusing structural timebombs) is not necessary. “Superior economic management” will suffice. I suspect that enough punters in voter land will buy this to potentially make a diffrence in the election outcome.

    #BlackSwan

  9. Pegasus @ #1705 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:07 am

    PeeBee (and others),

    I am an individual, an ordinary citizen, who chose to join the Greens Party.

    The need to constantly stereotype **all** Greens (supporters, members parliamentarians…) as holding the same values, attitudes, etc as me is facile, pathetic and unnecessary.

    Perhaps the need to stereotype indicates the general underlying hatred, loathing, contempt, disdain, etc that some Labor tribalists have for Greens in general.

    Irrationality rules.

    Which is not me. 🙂

    I chose to point out Jordan Steele-John as likely having a good word to say about Jenny Macklin. He may not even be the only one in The Greens’ camp.

  10. C@t

    Oh dear, I don’t want to turn this into an endless argument, but my

    Macklin is not dead, she is retiring.

    was not, in fact, any thing to do with your

    ‘her political grave’

    .

    I was merely reflecting on the tendency to paint the dead as faultless angels, that’s all. Please stop spitting at me.

  11. PeeBee

    I guess Peg doesn’t post so much anti-Conservative opinion because there are none here. She could join in the useless venting, I suppose.

    People should listen to constructive criticism from their friends, not their enemies. But making Greens “enemies” as the (decreasing) number of thin-skinned and, frankly, ridiculous, Labor zealots here, apparently showing off to each other, will surely backfire on Labor if this becomes the perception in the wider community.

  12. AE

    The Shorter Pegasus – “Labor is not perfect, as I envisage the world should be. Neither are their MPs. THEY STAND CONDEMNED!!”

    Shouting at someone is never a good look.

    Aah, the stale and much used “oh so perfect”, “oh so pure” meme.

    Increasingly, ad hominems is all that you have.

  13. The Associated Press
    ‏Verified account @AP
    2h2 hours ago

    AP NewsBreak: The U.S. Army has moved in recent weeks to discharge dozens of immigrant recruits and reservists who enlisted through a program that promised them a path to citizenship.

  14. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1710 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:10 am

    @BB – 9:37am

    Solid post mate. The deck is stacked. The dice loaded. This year’s revenue windfall will allow the government to skate through the election if the CGP and MSM have any say in it. “Labor’s tax grab” (i.e. the meticulous approach to diffusing structural timebombs) is not necessary. “Superior economic management” will suffice. I suspect that enough punters in voter land will buy this to potentially make a diffrence in the election outcome.

    #BlackSwan

    Nope. Wage stagnation and rising Cost of Living, are the big ones. Plus Hospitals, both Public Hospital Elective Surgery Waiting List blow-outs, and Private Health Gap payments and fee increases above the COL.

    So I have heard.

    #WhiteSwan

  15. lizzie @ #1714 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:12 am

    C@t

    Oh dear, I don’t want to turn this into an endless argument, but my

    Macklin is not dead, she is retiring.

    was not, in fact, any thing to do with your

    ‘her political grave’

    .

    I was merely reflecting on the tendency to paint the dead as faultless angels, that’s all. Please stop spitting at me.

    I’m not spitting at you, merely seeking to protect the legacy of Jenny Macklin for one little day. But, okay.

  16. Lovey @ #1714 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    PeeBee

    I guess Peg doesn’t post so much anti-Conservative opinion because there are none here. She could join in the useless venting, I suppose.

    People should listen to constructive criticism from their friends, not their enemies. But making Greens “enemies” as the (decreasing) number of thin-skinned and, frankly, ridiculous, Labor zealots here, apparently showing off to each other, will surely backfire on Labor if this becomes the perception in the wider community.

    Their conduct is not dis-similar to the foamers on the far right.

  17. @Peg

    Standard reply, considering you’re negative posting instead of praising or as my parents would say “if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say it at all”.

    So just another hypocrite who couldn’t keep their mouth shut, claiming to be a Green Angel isn’t so green.

  18. C@tmomma @ #1703 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 7:07 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1702 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:05 am

    C@tmomma @ #1677 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 6:42 am

    lizzie @ #1675 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 9:38 am

    C@t

    You may not have noticed that I previously posted compliments from Shorten and others.

    It’s not a zero sum game in this instance, lizzie. Discretion is the better part of valour on this occasion I feel.

    Bullshit.

    lizzie is the only one here who has actually provided balance in looking at Macklin’s career.

    She did good and she did not so good! 🙂

    Nope. You are missing my point. Tomorrow, fine. Today, not so much.

    Anyway, that’s just my unbalanced opinion. 🙂

    Why?

    As lizzie said, she’s not dead, she’s retiring.

    And even if she was dead it shouldn’t matter.

    Just focusing on the good is as bad as Peg just focusing on the bad!

    Neither gives a true reflection of her career!!! 🙂

  19. Macklin wasn’t perfect, of course, but her record of achievement in social policy stacks up pretty well. Way more hits than misses.

    With Labor’s prospects at the next election looking good it must have been tempting for her to stay on. That makes her decision to go all the more praiseworthy.

  20. It’s great we have peg here to model for us the higher ethical standards the Greens exemplify.

    Alas, few of us can aspire to her level of compassion, empathy or morality.

  21. Lovey @ #1715 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    PeeBee

    I guess Peg doesn’t post so much anti-Conservative opinion because there are none here. She could join in the useless venting, I suppose.

    People should listen to constructive criticism from their friends, not their enemies. But making Greens “enemies” as the (decreasing) number of thin-skinned and, frankly, ridiculous, Labor zealots here, apparently showing off to each other, will surely backfire on Labor if this becomes the perception in the wider community.

    Nope. No mention of The Greens’ attempting to trash Jenny Macklin’s legacy here today. Just, ‘thin-skinned Labor zealots’, and commentary absent the context that some of us are trying to provide.

    Pfft!

    How degraded and decontextualised has politics in this country become that a genuine case for positive approbation has become the jumping off point for abuse of those that would seek to protect that legacy, if only for one day!?!

  22. Katie Hall
    ‍♀️

    ‏ @Katie_Footscray
    1h1 hour ago

    Jenny Macklin has been a constant source of inspiration to myself and many other women in the Labor Party. She’s been an unwavering champion of those less fortunate, she reminds us why we get involved in the first place. One of the best. #auspol

  23. David Crowe

    Jenny Macklin’s departure from parliament (I am sure she won’t be retiring from politics and policy) is a huge loss to Labor. She has that rare combination of being so smart, never letting her opponents get away with anything and never being afraid to show she is human.

  24. Barney in Go Dau @ #1727 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:19 am

    C@tmomma @ #1703 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 7:07 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1702 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:05 am

    C@tmomma @ #1677 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 6:42 am

    lizzie @ #1675 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 9:38 am

    C@t

    You may not have noticed that I previously posted compliments from Shorten and others.

    It’s not a zero sum game in this instance, lizzie. Discretion is the better part of valour on this occasion I feel.

    Bullshit.

    lizzie is the only one here who has actually provided balance in looking at Macklin’s career.

    She did good and she did not so good! 🙂

    Nope. You are missing my point. Tomorrow, fine. Today, not so much.

    Anyway, that’s just my unbalanced opinion. 🙂

    Why?

    As lizzie said, she’s not dead, she’s retiring.

    And even if she was dead it shouldn’t matter.

    Just focusing on the good is as bad as Peg just focusing on the bad!

    Neither gives a true reflection of her career!!! 🙂

    Still missing the main point, BiGD. I just thought we could have had the common decency to wait a day before we put the hob-nailed boots into her legacy.

    Fine if you don’t agree with that. Just get it right what I was on about from the get-go.

  25. Meanwhile the lack of Greens archievement in helping those with Disabilies is continue to grow, rather than fighting along side with a party that will go into an eventual government, Greens just snipe others.

    We the worse off, get worse off:

    ACOSS
    ‏ @ACOSS
    21h21 hours ago

    The number of people with a disability or illness who are on lower Newstart Allowance has increased from 100,000 in 2012 to 180,500 in 2017. Newstart is now $178 pw less than the Disability Support Pension. That’s 180,000 reasons to #RaisetheRate #auspol

  26. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/state-s-solar-and-wind-energy-boom-could-power-every-home-for-a-year-20180705-p4zps0.html

    Victoria is in the grip of a renewable energy boom, with more wind and solar power in operation or being built than all the state’s households would use in a year.

    An analysis of all large-scale wind and solar farms across the state has found they will soon have the energy-generating capacity to power more than 2.9 million homes.

    The analysis, by advocacy group Environment Victoria, is based on the Australian Energy Market Commission’s estimate that the average Victorian household used 3865 kilowatt-hours of electricity last year.

  27. Anyway, as they say, if you want a friend in politics, get a dog. So I’m off now to cuddle a greyhound for a while. 🙂

  28. Zoidlord @ #1734 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 10:24 am

    Meanwhile the lack of Greens archievement in helping those with Disabilies is continue to grow, rather than fighting along side with a party that will go into an eventual government, Greens just snipe others.

    We the worse off, get worse off:

    ACOSS
    ‏ @ACOSS
    21h21 hours ago

    The number of people with a disability or illness who are on lower Newstart Allowance has increased from 100,000 in 2012 to 180,500 in 2017. Newstart is now $178 pw less than the Disability Support Pension. That’s 180,000 reasons to #RaisetheRate #auspol

    Yes, my son being one of them. He had to leave his first and only real job because it exacerbated one of his conditions and he needs 2 more operations this year and next to correct it. He applied for a Disability Pension. He has numerous congenital conditions. No go. Newstart for him. 🙁

  29. C

    Danby announces his retirement and he gets dumped on. No rant from you or anyone else in response. Macklin goes and I dare to link to a couple of posts critical of her without adding any rabid, bloviating ad-hominems and I am the devil incarnate.

    Thin-skinned – Yeah.

  30. C@tmomma @ #1737 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 7:24 am

    Still missing the main point, BiGD. I just thought we could have had the common decency to wait a day before we put the hob-nailed boots into her legacy.

    Fine if you don’t agree with that. Just get it right what I was on about from the get-go.

    I’m missing nothing here.

    I believe your main point misses the main point, her legacy.

    Her legacy is the sum of her achievements, good and bad.

    What are you so scared of?

    Were the negatives so great that they would out weigh the positives?

    I think not!!!

  31. Barney

    …and if peg had provided a balanced post, instead of merely a negative one, that wouldn’t have attracted criticism.

  32. I know how C@tmomma feels I think.

    As a Labor supporter you get it from all sides – the constant barrage of negativity from the media, the obsessive right wing trolls, and then the greens.

    I don’t think its too much to expect to give it a rest on the day that one of the best parliamentarians of recent times announces her retirement.

    After all nobody is perfect, except for a few sanctimonious individuals.

    And can anyone remember the last time they heard something positive about Shorten from our fabulous media?

  33. ” can anyone remember the last time they heard something positive about Shorten from our fabulous media?

    can anyone remember the last time they heard something positive about Shorten from the Greens or their supporters?

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