Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Both parties up on the primary vote in the latest Essential poll, which concurs with Newspoll in finding Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings edging upwards and Bill Shorten’s edging down.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, and The Guardian report provides full primary votes for a change: both major parties are up two, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 6%, with the “others” vote presumably well down. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which tell a remarkably similar story to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up one to 43%, his best result since March 2016, and his disapproval is down two to 40%, his best since the eve of the July 2016 election; while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 31% and up one to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out to 42-25, compared with 41-27 last time.

The Essential poll also finds only 15% of respondents expect the government’s national energy guarantee will reduce power prices, compared with 22% for increasing them (down nine since the same question was asked last October) and 38% for making no difference (up seven). The government’s proposed tax cuts for big companies have 41% support, up four on a month or so ago, with 36% opposed, down one. Further on company tax cuts, The Australian has a comprehensive set of further results from the weekend’s Newspoll, which find respondents tending to be persuaded that the cuts will be good for employment (50% responded cuts would create more jobs versus 36% who said they would not, and 43% believed repealing them would put jobs at risk versus 37% saying they would not), yet 52% supported Bill Shorten saying cuts for businesses with $10 million to $50 million turnover would be repeated if won office, versus only 37% opposed.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. BREAKING sources tell me Senators Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan have lost positions 1 & 2 at LNP pre selection. Meaning, they’ll be in unwillable positions come the election @SkyNewsAust

    Surely Macdonald as the longest serving senator (I think) would know when to call it quits.

    Otherwise he and O’Sullivan could form their own POSH (Pissed Off Stupid Hasbeens) Party to contest the election.

  2. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-06/pillar-baptist-church-members-charged-after-mosque-incidents/9950072

    Three self-styled Christian “Baptists” have been charged after allegedly trespassing and verbally abusing worshippers at Brisbane mosques.

    The trio face charges of public nuisance, entering a premises with intent and trespass, after the incidents at the Kuraby and Darra mosques on Wednesday and Thursday.
    :::
    He said it was possible more charges could be laid.

  3. Senators Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan could switch to the Palmer United party – that would solve their dilemma.

  4. SBS

    Barry O’Sullivan and Ian Macdonald were relegated down the ticket in a preselection on Friday, with Brisbane mining executive Paul Scarr taking the No.1 spot.

    Businesswoman Susan McDonald will be in second place.

  5. ‘Shellbell says:
    Friday, July 6, 2018 at 2:26 pm

    I think we can improve things by making mandatory reporting of firearm ownership an element of the forms filed in Family Court proceedings.’

    Yep. Plus make it illegal to own guns if you are convicted of public displays of uncontrolled anger in any way, shape or form. Uttering threats, threatening emails, raised fists, fisticuffs – anything at all would mean an automatic life ban on gun ownership.

  6. booleanbach
    Someone or some group are putting a lot of money into this US/Australian mateship bullshit. There are shows on Fox featuring a century of US/Australian mateship at war, for example.

  7. Cute – the PM’s Department, unable to work out why more men were in executive roles than women —(Pick me! Pick me! I can answer that one) — started with a working hypothesis that women’s performance ratings were lower.

    Instead they found —

    ‘…women were outperforming men in some parts of the organisation.’

    Although –

    ‘…The analysis did yield one potential explanation for the executive gender imbalance — it found part-time workers tend to receive lower performance ratings than full-time workers.’

    They’re now off to see if any of these factors play a role —

    ‘The likelihood more women are in administrative occupations
    The possibility men have more extensive qualifications or experience
    Older, more-senior cohorts that reflect the male-skewed gender balance from previous decades
    Time in the workforce due to carer responsibilities’

    It beggars belief that these questions can’t be answered after a couple of hours looking through staffing profiles but then again, it is the Prime Minister’s Department…. (if this particular issue is taking so much effort for them to get their heads around, it really does explain a lot…)

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-06/women-outperforming-men-pay-gap-prime-minister-and-cabinet/9938440

  8. https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/how-a-father-planned-the-execution-of-his-two-children-20180706-p4zpve.html

    A 68-year-old father who shot and killed his two teenage children in Sydney’s north-west on Thursday had been involved in a custody battle when, earlier this year, he registered for the two firearms used in the shooting.
    :::
    “The 68-year-old male was the holder of a number of firearms. The two handguns [used] were registered in his name [and] came into his possession lawfully this year,” acting Assistant Commissioner Brett McFadden said.

    He could not specify what type of firearms were located, but described the handguns as “quite powerful”.

    Fairfax Media understands Mr Edwards was recently estranged from the children.
    :::
    Acting Assistant Commissioner McFadden confirmed there were no current AVOs in place, but said there had been “some custody hearings over the past two years”.
    :::
    Police said while the man had been known to them, their knowledge was not extensive and was from “many, many years ago”.

    “We have knowledge of this person, but it’s not extensive and there is nothing that I would say would be contemporary.”

  9. BREAKING sources tell me Senators Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan have lost positions 1 & 2 at LNP pre selection. Meaning, they’ll be in unwillable positions come the election @SkyNewsAust
    +++
    Never has the expression “putting out the garbage on a Friday afternoon” been more apt!

  10. SkyNews tells the truth for once 😀

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    3h3 hours ago

    Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm: @billshortenmp wants to wage a war on business. It’s a nasty, dishonest, envious attack. He lies to people, he does backflips or bellyflops.

  11. Rick Wilson lays into Pruitt and Trump as corrupt grifters

    Scott Pruitt Wasn’t Corrupt Enough for Trumpistan

    As if America needed reminding, Trump’s promises to hire the best people to drain the swamp and Make America Great Again are all not only false but ludicrously so.

    What, precisely, did you expect? Donald Trump is unequivocal proof that As hire Bs and Bs hire Cs, and Trump hires people without the judgment, qualifications, ethical foundations, and moral stature to run an underground bum-fighting operation.

    Pruitt is a man, like so many of Trump’s claque of low-rent hoodlums, bus-station conmen, edge-case dead-enders, and caged-immigrant child porn aficionados, utterly unsuited to a role of public trust and responsibility.

    To the detriment of the country, Pruitt is just one of Trump’s many minions who model their low behavior, raving contempt for the law, and disregard for even the sparest ethical standards and shamelessly follow the lead of the Grifter in Chief.

    MORE :

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/scott-pruitt-wasnt-corrupt-enough-for-trumpistan?ref=scroll

  12. Big A Adrian,
    Name any of the ‘true believer’ regulars here – cat, lizzie, confessions, steve777 etc etc – have they *EVER* posted anything critical of the labor party? An “alternative view” is obviously one thats not cow-towing to this “Dear leader Bill can do no wrong” holy writ. – One that gives an “alternative” to the tired old echo chamber labor party propaganda we see here day in day out.

    Shows how little you actually know about us. If I could be bothered, I could go back into the PB archives and produce evidence of my disagreement with Labor Party policy. However, suffice to say, the last example occurred as recently as last weekend at the NSW ALP Conference where I disagreed with the Centre Unity policy position on abortion. They think it should remain criminalised but available. I think it should be decriminalised.

    Oh, and you left out the apostrophe in ‘that’s’ and, it’s kowtowing. 🙂

  13. PhoenixRed

    there is not one day goes by that the Trump administration shows itself to be the worst of the worst.
    Fifa World Cup finishes on 15th July. expect things to ramp up after that date.

  14. Victoria says: Friday, July 6, 2018 at 4:25 pm

    PhoenixRed

    there is not one day goes by that the Trump administration shows itself to be the worst of the worst.
    Fifa World Cup finishes on 15th July. expect things to ramp up after that date.

    ******************************************

    GOP stalwarts like Rick Wilson and Steve Schmidt are in open warfare with Trump but still not a murmur from those Republicans in Congress who could end this shit-show in a minute ….

    Hopefully the Mueller team will come up with something soon ……

  15. phoenixRed

    of course not a murmur from Repugs in Congress. So many of them are compromised. Heck some of them spent the 4th July in Moscow!!

  16. Mueller needs to wait and drop his indictment(s) a week or so out from the midterm elections. Then it’s a simple matter of either the Republicans in Congress act or the public votes in some new representatives who will.

  17. We’re sad to hear the news of no immediate plans for season 7 of @checkouttv. The show's producers, writers & hosts have done an incredible job over the years informing Australians about consumer rights & holding businesses to account. We need shows like the Checkout #accccccc— ACCC (@acccgovau) July 6, 2018

  18. ar, and how is that not an act of political interference by a public officer?

    I want to see Trump and the Republicans gone as much as anyone, but if charges are to be laid they should be laid when the case for the prosecution is ready, not at some politically opportune time.

    To do the latter would make Muller no better than Michaelia Cash and the Liberal Party.

  19. Victoria says: Friday, July 6, 2018 at 4:33 pm

    phoenixRed

    of course not a murmur from Repugs in Congress. So many of them are compromised. Heck some of them spent the 4th July in Moscow!!

    ***********************************************

    Maybe if Cohen decides to give up Trump once and for all will spur on some action

    Michael Avenatti is sure stirring the pot with threats to run against Trump – mostly self promotion, I know – but he is getting information from undisclosed sources that he is aggressively thrusting in Trumps face and if he can find out the truth to the Broidy hush payments to playmate Shera Bechard over an alleged abortion ( covering for Trump ????? ) then ……..

  20. The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    11m11 minutes ago

    EXCLUSIVE Ex-Foxtel boss Peter Tonagh set to head ABC review #auspol

  21. I’m sure the incoming Federal Labor Government will give that Foxtel review all the credibility it deserves, Zoidy.

  22. Sorry but when you have people that are NOT working class people or low income earners as part of you’re “board” members club in Open Labor, especially when journalists are bunch of hypercrits as they are.

    You have a hive in posting it Peg and Rex.

  23. EXCLUSIVE Ex-Foxtel boss Peter Tonagh set to head ABC review #auspol
    ____
    That’s right up there with some of Abbott’s appointments for reviews!

  24. Testing. Just found some old notes I made about Emojis. If these don’t work perhaps someone could put me on the right track.
    😀
    😉
    🙂

  25. Our local West is touting Paul Murray, Andrew Bold, Mark Riley and local, Gary Adshead for their “fearless commentary” on political issues.
    What a joke…….Andrew Bolt, somewhere over the horizon of the right-wing; Paul Murray former editor and job for life with the West – apologist for the Liberal party and head-kicker of Labor; Mark Riley – always seemingly waiting for the next ‘coming’ of PM Turnbull and Gary Adshead, former morning presenter on Red Neck 6PR, a somewhere to the soft right of the Liberal party.
    And the West wonders why other than those who are supporter of the LNP take it seriously.

  26. Yep, real outsiders and agitators in Open Labor:

    James Button is a former Age journalist and speechwriter(for Julia Gillard and Bill Shorten, among other Labor MPs), and a member of the Northcote branch of the ALP. He is a founding member of Open Labor.

    Tom Bentley is a writer and policy adviser based in Melbourne. He is a former director of Demos, the London-based think tank, and worked for Julia Gillard from 2007-13. He is a founding member of Open Labor.

    Matthew Albert practices in commercial, industrial and public law. He advises and acts in commercial disputes, including contract, consumer, building and construction law. His public law matters include judicial and merits review, and acting as counsel assisting the Coroner. He is a founding member of Open Labor.

    To me they just sound like a common interest ginger group. Not that radical or unusual at all in the Labor Party.

  27. The west has a weekday circulation of some 145,000 copies and falling, in a captive WA population of over 2.5 million.

    People like Murray, and a conga line of failed editors before him, have reduced it to this.

  28. They are basically propping up the profit for Fraudband:

    Ken Tsang
    ‏ @jxeeno
    3h3 hours ago

    wow. at $130 a pop for a V-NNI and no recurring charge for NNI Link, this basically kills the transit business to NBN POIs

  29. Last night I discovered that Sky News has moved onto the previously vacant fourth channel operated by WIN TV. (Currently there’s a sign saying transmissions will commence soon.)

    It will join such useful channels as Jimmy Swaggart and TV shopping!

  30. Zoidlord, can you explain what this means for IT blockheads like me. Thanks!

    Zoidlord says:
    Friday, July 6, 2018 at 5:54 pm
    They are basically propping up the profit for Fraudband:

    Ken Tsang
    ‏ @jxeeno
    3h3 hours ago

    wow. at $130 a pop for a V-NNI and no recurring charge for NNI Link, this basically kills the transit business to NBN POIs

  31. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/06/northern-australia-infrastructure-fund-oversight-severely-inadequate

    Oversight of the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility is “severely inadequate” and the finance minister should gain joint responsibility for the $5bn fund, a Senate committee has recommended.

    On Friday the inquiry dominated by Labor and the Greens called for the Naif to release more information on its investment decisions and any conflicts of interests, due to concerns about board members’ links to the mining industry.

    In a dissenting report, Coalition senators labelled the inquiry a “politically motivated” exercise …

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