Newspoll and Essential Research both had polls last week, and since we’re probably not due yet for a ReachTEL (the last was three weeks ago), we presumably have a lean week coming up. The latest BludgerTrack update accounts for the two aforesaid polls, and they have had the most minimal of impacts on the voting intention aggregates, on which the biggest move is a 0.6% drop for One Nation. The seat projections have the Coalition up one in Victoria and Western Australia, and down one in Queensland. A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll makes a modest addition to the established pattern of improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, with Bill Shorten flatlining. Full results through the link below.
During the Howard years, in between elections Labor was going to romp home, then the election campaign started and Labor ran ads telling voters Howard was a great leader*. As soon as they stopped this insane tactic, Labor actually did romp home and Howard lost his seat.
I can’t see the same mistake being repeated to save Turnbull.
* But if you vote for him you might get Costello.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #336 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 6:17 pm
Although if Compact Crank doesn’t trust it either I may have to reconsider my position. 🙂
“During the Howard years, in between elections Labor was going to romp home, then the election campaign started and Labor ran ads telling voters Howard was a great leader*. As soon as they stopped this insane tactic, Labor actually did romp home and Howard lost his seat.”
Not saying that is the worst take ever, but I would ask were you overseas, or perhaps on pluto, for all of those elections?
” who knows, the retirees on Bribie Island will be scares by the asset issues and will like the tax cuts.”
The demographics of Bribie Island have shifted a lot since I visited if all the retirees are still earning incomes such that they pay tax at the top marginal rates. Way to go guys.
I believe the Hinkler QLD ReachTEL from May 2018 is one which the ghost overlooked. Why they would poll some random Nat seat is odd, probably sponsored by some issue group.
The trend in outer suburban and regional Queensland is crucial for how the margin (and result) falls in the coming election, with Pauline and now the cashed up jackal Clive circling. Not to forget that 6 months ago in the Qld state election, LNP barely got 33% to Labor’s 35% and only 15% for PHON/Katter. Plenty to play for.
Yes Oakshott
Brings back memories
My Dad joined me up to a Starr Bowkett saving scheme when I was still at school and I used to hop on my bike to head a few (then) miles to a (then!) old guys home to contribute 2 Pounds a week (given to me by Dad).
Ultimately I started work in a bank – so a home mortgage loan was guaranteed (the interest rate 40% of the Public Rate)
WeWantPaul,
No, I was in Australia, being horrified by the incompetence of the Labor campaings, and stunned into disbelief that they would use the same failed strategy over and over.
And if Labor wants to further peel off some PHON voters, maybe highlighting this cosy relationship?
Full ReachTEL,results for Longman and Mayo..
http://www.tai.org.au/content/longman-and-mayo-new-polling-company-tax-cuts-and-voter-priorities-government-revenue
Late Riser @ #1304 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 5:04 pm
LR: The “gene drive” idea is not new. The Oz derived Wolbachia method of mosquito control depends on it. The issue here is using CRISPR-Cas9 technology to do it. This involves using it on germ cell lines in mammals – for which there is currently a moratorium.
A sad story: it is now thirty years since James Hansen gave the first conclusive warning of climate change. The problem is still getting worse. Australia is one of the worst offenders. Our leaders have not been game to face it. Keating put it in the too hard basket. Howard put it off till after his defeat. Rudd spoke well but failed to act. Gillard spoke badly, acted well, only to have the Carbon price axed by Abbott. Abbott ignores his own churches position and acts to make it worse. Turnbull spoke like Rudd but has still done nothing effective. 30 years of net failure.
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/it-s-been-30-years-since-the-first-alarm-on-global-warming-was-sounded-20180621-p4zmtd.html
You have to conclude there are forces in both Labor and Liberal acting to perpetuate this problem.
@Sprocket
That 50-50% result in the ReachTel poll is in an electorate that Labor arguably weakest* in (they are stronger in Braddon, despite very strong results for the Liberals at the recent state election). This points towards Labor retaining both Braddon and Longman at the by-elections.
Also regarding Braddon the Liberals since 1998 have only won seats in Tasmania federally when they do quite well nationally (2003 and 2013). In every-other election they win or get a majority two party preferred result if it was Labor vs Liberal. Because if Wilkie was not the member for Dension it would be a quite safe Labor seat.
*Labor only won Longman through very favorable preference flows from minor parties at the 2016 election.
Wouldn’t it be best if labor lost longman and Malcolm did something dumb-arse, as he is wont to do, and called an election to maintain his “momentum”.
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a21775485/migrant-child-crisis-trump-presidency/?src=socialflowTW
”
This Nation Is Beginning to Realize the Full Extent of What It Did to Itself in November 2016
The country’s head is clearing. The spell of the reality show presidency* is wearing off.
The week just passed has changed the calculations. The images from the border, and the White House’s fatheaded trolling of the situation, seems to have shaken up everyone in Washington to the point at which alliances are more fluid than they have been since January of 2017. There seems little doubt that the Republicans in the House of Representatives are riven with ideological chaos, struck numb by the basic conundrum of modern conservatism: When your whole political identity is defined by the proposition that government is not the solution, but, rather, the problem, you don’t know how to operate it when fortune and gerrymandering hand you the wheel.
You can fake it pretty convincingly, doing the bidding of your donor class and knuckling the powerless and making a nice living for yourself, as long as events pursue a fairly predictable course for which there are familiar precedents in your experience. You can even see the setbacks coming from around the corner. Even your defeats are predictable and, thus, explainable—or, at least, spinnable. Can’t repeal Obamacare? RINOs like John McCain!
The problem arises when something unpredictable happens, and the government you control has to be fast on its feet, and you don’t know how that really works. A hurricane and a flood drowns New Orleans, and the luxury horse-show official you put in charge of the country’s emergency management system—because who cares, right?—finds that he’s really not up to the job. Or, suddenly, you find that, no matter how hot the emotions run at your rallies or how brightly your favorite TV network polishes your apple, or how hard you pitch the snake oil that got you elected, the country will not stand for being complicit in the kidnapping and caging of children. The pictures begin to pile up. The mirror in which the country prefers to see itself cracks into a million sharp shards that begin to cut your political life away
“
Sprocket ~ @ #358 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 7:30 pm
Hanson will screw over Abbott when she gets the opportunity.
He’s the prick that put her in jail.
She’s never going to forgive that!
The next financial disaster will be Reverse Mortgages
Where you borrow against a valuation of your home with no capacity to service that borrowing even on an interest only basis
What could possibly go wrong with the factors that underpin such a borrowing?
And how does the provision of such lending compare with the basis on which banks traditionally lend (or should traditionally lend because that is another issue entirely!) being intent and capacity to service with alternate exit strategy (being at least realising on the security and before you get to the Personal Covenent Clauses in the mortgage documentation)?
As I say, the next great disaster
Aka Sub Prime Lending – and we know what happened there, don’t we?
“The Big Short” anyone?
Or “Belly Up – the story of Penn Square Bank” and the Savings & Loans fiasco
Some people never learn
Socrates
Not forgetting the zero contribution of the Greens over those 30 years.
George Will, a conservative columnist, defended Bush & Iraq war till the end. His article below:
Vote against the GOP this November
”
The principle: The congressional Republican caucuses must be substantially reduced. So substantially that their remnants, reduced to minorities, will be stripped of the Constitution’s Article I powers that they have been too invertebrate to use against the current wielder of Article II powers. They will then have leisure time to wonder why they worked so hard to achieve membership in a legislature whose unexercised muscles have atrophied because of people like them.
”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/vote-against-the-gop-this-november/2018/06/22/a6378306-7575-11e8-b4b7-308400242c2e_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.011a6c8304cd
Observer @ #367 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 7:53 pm
I’m generally opposed to reverse Mortgage loans. However, I can see the value when people are asset rich, but cash poor. It can assist them to do that dream overseas trip or freshen up their property for a better return sale.
However, the greedy next generation seeking their inheritance early is the ever present elephant in the room.
Boerwar @ #455 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 7:59 pm
Too kind BW
It’s actually a negative contribution
Bw
I would agree the “watermelon Greens” have not been serious about climate change. In my experience the rest have been serious, as were the Democrats, but neither had enough numbers to make any difference.
The Nationals have been worse than the Liberals, ironically despite the factbthat the farmers who blindly vote for them will be the worst losers.
But those are all minor parties. If Labor and Liberal could do a deal, change would happen. They haven’t, hence no lasting change.
Sorry but in this context raising the Greens is merely deflecting responsibility. Keating was at least honest that he didn’t deal with it. Since then it has been pass the buck from all except Gillard.
BTW electricity generation is not the only area of policy failure in carbon emissions. On average the cars we drive are slightly cleaner. But around 1/3 of all private vehicles are now Utes and SUVs weighing on average two tonnes. So overall we are going backward on car emissions too. And it has nothing to do with “helping tradies”. Tradies do not comprise one third of all motorists. Most large 4WDs never see a rougher surface than the car park at Bunnings.
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/it-s-been-30-years-since-the-first-alarm-on-global-warming-was-sounded-20180621-p4zmtd.html
It’s older than that; we where talking about it when I was at collage and that is a lot more than 30 years ago.
Greensborough Growler @ #1332 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 6:52 pm
Um. Wrong – and I say that as an Infectious Diseases physician. No antimicrobial save antimalarials, TB treatment and HIV has a significant effect on mortality rates. Penicillin is of use only in Streptococcal infections, and its introduction made only a minor difference in the mortality of Strep pneumoniae, the most prevalent of these infections. Puerpural sepsis and scarlet fever (which were the real causes of premature death) were overcome by hygiene measures, like hand washing, long before antimicrobials were introduced. Less than 0.1% of all antimicrobial doses given in humans (which is less than 0.1% of all antimicrobial agents given, since agricultural use is at least 3 orders of magnitude greater than human use) result in any change in clinical outcome. This is why antimicrobial resistance is now such a problem. I spend most of my professional life trying to stop the useless prescription of antimicrobials.
Frednk
I agree there were concerns first raised about the risk of climate change back in the 70s by the late Stephen Schneider among others. But I think Hansen’s 1988 statement was the first major public statement that there was strong evidence it was happening.
rhwombat
If it has such little effect why worry about the resistance?
rhwombat @ #376 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 8:24 pm
Is there a religious theme here?
Denying something three times before the cock crows?
frednk @ #378 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 8:27 pm
Because resistance persists long after the misuse of antimicrobials which drove it.
“Socrates says:
Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 8:17 pm
BTW electricity generation is not the only area of policy failure in carbon emissions. On average the cars we drive are slightly cleaner. But around 1/3 of all private vehicles are now Utes and SUVs weighing on average two tonnes. So overall we are going backward on car emissions too. And it has nothing to do with “helping tradies”. Tradies do not comprise one third of all motorists. Most large 4WDs never see a rougher surface than the car park at Bunnings.
”
Too right about Utes and SUVs. I see so many SUVs on city roads that I am astonished that people think they need them. I believe SUVs have increased at least 3 fold in last decade. People are still buying them although they are expensive when compared to sedans & hatchbacks and although petrol is very expensive now (~$1.70).
rhwombat
That bit I undedstand; but your arguing that:
No antimicrobial save antimalarials, TB treatment and HIV has a significant effect on mortality rates.
If that is the case why the general fuss? If would seem we only have three things to worry about:
antimalerials ( which I don’t understand as it is a plasmodium parasite); TB gave up on penicillin in 1940; and HIV is in a class of it’s own..
There’s a reason why AFL lovers love the game!
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/fa6f1758501b6092fb7eb88c1a0b6bbd?width=316
Andrew
Not sure if you saw my final response on the last thread:
I will have a crack at the long interval training at Lake Monger, which is close to where I work. There is a 3.5km running track there marked off at 500m intervals.
Thanks again! I will let you know if I improve.
Let us not forget the effects of the elimination of smallpox. At least 2 million premature deaths per year until the 1950s
Jolyon Wagg @ #384 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 8:50 pm
#PBoldmentryingtoturnbacktime
Insiders even more unbearably right wing than normal. Llabor leadershit and cheerleading for the Tories.
rhwombat @ #360 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 7:35 pm
Thanks. This is way outside my training. But I get that the idea is not new, and using CRISPR is a powerful step. What is exciting for me (both plus and minus) is the idea of wiping out a single selected species in an ecosystem, or merely modifying it for a human benefit. But if it works for feral mice then feral cats should be a close second. And what about cane toads? There’s a lot of potential.
Who decides on the limits of a moratorium? (rhetorical)
As I recall, climate change hadn’t impacted greatly on public awareness until the late 1990s. To criticise Keating for doing nothing in the early 1990s is a bit unfair. He would have risen to the challenge had he won in 1996 (yes, I know we can’t know).
The Coalition were never going to do anything. Howard reluctantly agreed to develop a business-friendly ETS towards the end of his premiership. Had he won in 2007, it might have been legislated, or maybe the IPA/Murdoch/hard right would have torpedoed it. Again we can’t know.
Rudd made an effort and almost succeeded. His ETS was flawed, but it could have been adjusted and in any case was vastly better then anything likely to be in place before the 2020s (i.e. nothing). Bipartisan was the way to go. The Coalition reneged and the Greens, as always, were pure and impotent except to destroy. After the failure to get the ETS up Rudd seemed to go into a funk and the rest is history.
Gillard actually succeeded. A bloody-minded Abbott Government did the only thing it was capable of, tear down. And Turnbull did the only thing he was capable of, nothing.
GG
Haha…probably a fair comment. I feel a lot better physically and mentally when I am pushing the exercise envelope but the mirror still provides a powerful reality check 🙂
Ipsos 53 47 Alp according to Ghost on twitter
Not ‘arf.
“@kevinbonham
6h6 hours ago
More Kevin Bonham Retweeted Kevin Bonham
Some very implausible age breakdowns in that #Longman poll. 18-34 Labor 20.4 vs PHON 23. 51-65 Labor 53.6 vs LNP 25.8. #ReachTEL”
http://www.tai.org.au/content/longman-and-mayo-new-polling-company-tax-cuts-and-voter-priorities-government-revenue
Jolyon Wagg @ #390 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 9:14 pm
Don’t look back in angst!
Socrates
Sorry but this is horseshit. Rudd would have had an Emission Trading Scheme in place but for the duplicity of the coalition (reneging on an agreement after turning to Abbott, the climate-change denying dolt) and the stupidity of the Greens. The only blame that attaches to Rudd is that he didn’t take the issue to a DD. I don’t judge him too harshly for that given the amazingly poor performance of the media at the time, giving equal air time to science and climate-change denial.
Mark Butler is out-bloody-standing.
Excellent, looks like we’re getting an Ipsos poll.
Greensborough Growler says:
Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 6:52 pm
Penicillin is a major contributor to long term liveability in humans
Agree unless highly allergic like me, I have to carry a warning not be to given penicillin.
mundo @ #395 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 9:23 pm
Does he smell nice?
Just , he lost the recent vote for President of the ALP.
And as we no doubt recall, Keating had a global recession to deal with in the early 90s with 11% unemployment. Howard inherited the recovery and had no such excuse.
Mari @ #397 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 9:27 pm
mari,
My mum was nearly killed this weekend by doctors that did not listen to her informed information.
She’s OK. But, not happy!