BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

Two polls last week landed right on the existing trend readings from BludgerTrack, which has accordingly recorded next to no movement.

Newspoll and Essential Research both had polls last week, and since we’re probably not due yet for a ReachTEL (the last was three weeks ago), we presumably have a lean week coming up. The latest BludgerTrack update accounts for the two aforesaid polls, and they have had the most minimal of impacts on the voting intention aggregates, on which the biggest move is a 0.6% drop for One Nation. The seat projections have the Coalition up one in Victoria and Western Australia, and down one in Queensland. A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll makes a modest addition to the established pattern of improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, with Bill Shorten flatlining. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

461 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

  1. Defence industry may be the portfolio officially attached to Christopher Pyne’s name but that doesn’t mean he neglects his other, slightly less official, one. Indeed, as the government’s roving Minister for Talking Up Anthony Albanese Almost If Not Entirely For the Purposes of Stirring the Labor Leadership Possum, Pyne displays an energy that is admirably, almost unnervingly, unflagging. He does it in parliament. He does it in press conferences. He does it on television and radio. And if he could invade your dreams and talk Albo, he probably would. At his press conference last weekend, the official portfolio almost didn’t get a look-in.

    https://outline.com/Unv4hE

  2. “Inspired by Trump, the world could be heading back to the 1930s”

    Put starkly, the norms and taboos established after the world witnessed the Holocaust are eroding before our eyes. For 70-odd years, roughly the span of a human life, they endured, keeping the lid on the darker impulses that, we had seen, lurked within all of us. It steadily became taboo to voice undiluted racism and xenophobia. Those fears, those loathings of the stranger, never went away, of course. But they were held in check, partly by the knowledge of where such hatred, unrestrained, could lead.

    Now, in the US, Italy, Hungary, Poland and elsewhere, the restraints are off. There even seems to be a macho thrill in breaking the taboo, in echoing the words and deeds of that darkest era in human history. It’s as if the boundaries that were drawn after 1945, demarcating acceptable human behaviour, were mere lines in the sand – and now the tide is coming in.

    It doesn’t happen overnight. It happens bit by bit, word by word, each step taking us lower into the pit. It’s why every one of us has to fight today’s horror. Because if we don’t, who knows what terrors lie ahead?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/22/trump-world-1930s-children-parents-europe-migrants?CMP=share_btn_tw

  3. ranky Pants Noely ‏ @YaThinkN · 29m29 minutes ago

    How is pointing out PM’s business interests will gain from Big Business Company Tax cuts “grubby politics” as Chester is stating on @BreakfastNews ?

    Even at P&C if you were to personally benefit from a spending decision you have to excuse yourself from vote?

  4. It doesn’t matter what statistics say, it’s what people are feeling.

    The CEDA poll found just 5% of people “believe they have personally gained a lot” from 26 years of consecutive growth, compared with 40% who said they had “gained a little”, 44% who did not feel like they had gained at all and 11% who did not know.

    Some 74% of people thought that large corporations and senior executives had gained a lot. Other identified winners included foreign shareholders, white-collar workers and Australian shareholders.

    The CEDA chief executive, Melinda Cilento, attributed the results to “a decade of stagnant incomes and cost-of-living pressures in areas like health and electricity”, adding that: “Waning trust in business and politics are also likely factors.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/25/most-australians-dont-feel-gains-of-26-years-of-growth-poll

  5. Adam Bandt tweets

    Our labour laws help big corporations at the expense of everyday people & it’s time to change the rules #greens https://twitter.com/AdamBandt/status/1011868494554492929/video/1

    David Shoebridge tweets

    Greens to press future Labor Government on industry bargaining, strike rights – great work from ⁦@AdamBandt⁩ https://www.workplaceexpress.com.au/nl06_news_selected.php?act=2&nav=10&selkey=56906&utm_source=instant+email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=subscriber+email&utm_content=article+headline&utm_term=Greens%20to%20press%20future%20Labor%20Government%20on%20industry%20bargaining%2C%20strike%20rights

    Note assumption that Labor will win to be pressured

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