My warning of a poll drought in the previous post hadn’t reckoned on Fairfax’s Ipsos series, which fills the void with a 53-47 result for Labor, down from 54-46 from the previous poll six weeks ago. As best as I can tell, all we have to go on at this stage is an editorial in The Age that suggests both major parties are on 35% of the primary vote, which is a two point drop for Labor and a one point drop for the Coalition. Leadership ratings and minor party primary votes will have to wait. Recent form suggests the poll will have had a sample of 1200, and been conducted Thursday to Sunday.
We also have two more federal by-election polls for the Australia Institute from ReachTEL, keeping in mind that the prestige of ReachTEL’s electorate polls have just taken a knock with the Liberals’ clear win in Darling Range. That’s all the comfort Georgina Downer can draw from its results, the latest of which gives Rebekha Sharkie her biggest lead yet in Mayo: 62-38 on two-party preferred, from primary votes (after exclusion of the 2.6% undecided) of 43.5% for Sharkie, 32.7% for Downer, 9.0% for the Greens and 8.2% for Labor.
In Longman, ReachTEL now records a 50-50 result after showing Liberal National Party candidate Trevor Ruthenberg leading Labor Section 44 victim Susan Lamb by 51-49. Primary votes after exclusion of 3.2% undecided are Labor 40.4%, LNP 36.1%, One Nation 15.2% and Greens 4.5%, so presumably One Nation’s respondent-allocated preferences are flowing solidly to the LNP. This poll was also conducted on Thursday, from a sample of 727. Full results from both polls are available here.
UPDATE: Those missing primary votes from Ipsos turn out to be 12% for the Greens, up one, and 6% for One Nation, also up one. The respondent-allocated two-party result goes the other way from the headline result, with Labor now leading 54-46, up from 53-47. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are down on his unusually strong result last time, with approval down one to 50% and disapproval up five to 44%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 40% and two to 53% (both leaders do unusually well on this metric from Ipsos). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 51-33, down from 52-32.
William Bowe says Thursday, June 28, 2018 at 11:27 pm
Something like what people have been posting here I would imagine.
Still is through various other forums, including invaluable submissions to redistribution and sundry JSCEM inquiries.
William Bowe says Thursday, June 28, 2018 at 9:30 pm
I’ve found it amusing that people automatically assume the next Labor leader will be Albanese or maybe Plibersek. I’ve always thought that Bowen and Burke were well in the mix.
C@tmomma says Thursday, June 28, 2018 at 10:29 pm
Michael Pascoe also got the sharp elbow from Fairfax, and I rate him very highly.
Anyone know what story Janine Perrett is tweeting about:
Maybe this?
I’d imagine criticism of Bill Shorten should be similar to how Malcolm Turnbull gets treated in the media.
Dismissing any possibility for Shorten to succesfully repeal a tax cut in future is also a bit silly.
“Let’s just imagine, purely hypothetically, the St Bill the Infallible actually did make a mistake, in the manner of an ordinary mortal human. And let’s say that journalists and commentators noticed he had done so, and gave him negative coverage as a result. What would the response here look like, I wonder.”
I think answering the tax question at a door stop was a clear and stupid error, but I’m not sure that helps any of the Sean Hannity’s who’ve turned it into Hillary’s emails on steroids.
Wilbo
I’m thinking…………….
You tell me.
I’m not sure the policy announcement itself was a mistake. Reversing the tax cut ($10m+) has been on the Labor agenda for a while and given their rhetoric it is well within the bounds of reason that the reversal is indeed the Labor policy.
The mistake has been in the handling of the announcement, which could have been done a lot better and been much more unified.
In the meantime, while the CPG keep talking about corporate tax cuts and yet more disunity in the Liberal Party, Labor has banked quite a few billion more in its election war chest and by mid next week everyone will have forgotten about the poor handling of the announcement of the policy.
http://newpolitics.com.au/2018/06/26/the-pulp-fiction-of-a-labor-leadership-challenge/
Sent to me ,found very interesting
grimace @ #2211 Thursday, June 28th, 2018 – 9:09 pm
Yep, the mistake was not getting their ducks in a row and clewing in the back benches.
Maybe they should distribute this video. 🙂
https://youtu.be/Kf4nlIEHfaU
bc @ #2204 Thursday, June 28th, 2018 – 9:29 pm
As did Michael West.
Turnbull has chosen to lead the small enclave of white economic supremacy which is drowning in its clamour to maintain a tradition of unfairness and disentitlement for the chosen.
Abbott has been deemed unfit for purpose and disenfranchised. Turnbull, with his sense of entitlement, will go the way of the golfer Norman and succumb to a naked spread with the black rod.
The LNP and Turnbull are all but gone as their toadies in the media regurgitate endless words of support. They’ll all ultimately scamper as we close in on the inevitable.
Ratsak and Doyley are on the money.
New thread.
bc says:
Thursday, June 28, 2018 at 11:28 pm
William Bowe says Thursday, June 28, 2018 at 9:30 pm
Changes in Ladbrokes “next Labor leader” market: Albanese out from $1.53 to $1.70, Bowen in from $4 to $2.30.
I’ve found it amusing that people automatically assume the next Labor leader will be Albanese or maybe Plibersek. I’ve always thought that Bowen and Burke were well in the mix.
___________________________
I reckon Tony Burke would do a great job if Bill fell under a bus.
Not up to me, but.
Dan Gulberry @ #2115 Thursday, June 28th, 2018 – 8:48 pm
His specialty was always fiction.
poroti @ #2190 Thursday, June 28th, 2018 – 10:41 pm
You’ll have to ask, BB. 😉
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downs%E2%80%93Thomson_paradox
In other words, a faster rail network causes roads to become faster.