Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Both sides down on the primary vote in Ipsos, as ReachTEL reiterates early findings of a big lead for Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo, and a squeaker in Longman.

My warning of a poll drought in the previous post hadn’t reckoned on Fairfax’s Ipsos series, which fills the void with a 53-47 result for Labor, down from 54-46 from the previous poll six weeks ago. As best as I can tell, all we have to go on at this stage is an editorial in The Age that suggests both major parties are on 35% of the primary vote, which is a two point drop for Labor and a one point drop for the Coalition. Leadership ratings and minor party primary votes will have to wait. Recent form suggests the poll will have had a sample of 1200, and been conducted Thursday to Sunday.

We also have two more federal by-election polls for the Australia Institute from ReachTEL, keeping in mind that the prestige of ReachTEL’s electorate polls have just taken a knock with the Liberals’ clear win in Darling Range. That’s all the comfort Georgina Downer can draw from its results, the latest of which gives Rebekha Sharkie her biggest lead yet in Mayo: 62-38 on two-party preferred, from primary votes (after exclusion of the 2.6% undecided) of 43.5% for Sharkie, 32.7% for Downer, 9.0% for the Greens and 8.2% for Labor.

In Longman, ReachTEL now records a 50-50 result after showing Liberal National Party candidate Trevor Ruthenberg leading Labor Section 44 victim Susan Lamb by 51-49. Primary votes after exclusion of 3.2% undecided are Labor 40.4%, LNP 36.1%, One Nation 15.2% and Greens 4.5%, so presumably One Nation’s respondent-allocated preferences are flowing solidly to the LNP. This poll was also conducted on Thursday, from a sample of 727. Full results from both polls are available here.

UPDATE: Those missing primary votes from Ipsos turn out to be 12% for the Greens, up one, and 6% for One Nation, also up one. The respondent-allocated two-party result goes the other way from the headline result, with Labor now leading 54-46, up from 53-47. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are down on his unusually strong result last time, with approval down one to 50% and disapproval up five to 44%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 40% and two to 53% (both leaders do unusually well on this metric from Ipsos). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 51-33, down from 52-32.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,220 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. DTT
    I just do not think anyone should assume anything at all about Qld. Totally unpredictable.

    I agree. But I think the next election will be very interesting in that Queensland won’t be quite so essential to Labor winning the election. Labor has a lot of avenues to victory.

  2. imacca,
    Thanks for the suggestion. I have been thinking about buying a Scooter, as in Vespa or Jap crap, actually.
    I don’t think my hands could grab the brakes on an electric pedal scooter well enough to save myself when I was going downhill. 😀

    Also, thank you for mentioning osteoporosis, and elsewhere for the mention of Rupert Murdoch, as something clicked inside my head. What do you reckon about the possibility that Rupert’s accident on Lachlan’s boat was as bad as it was because he had undiagnosed osteoporosis of the spine? Might explain why he hasn’t recovered very well, or very quickly.

  3. Can anyone remember which seat Don Chipp held in SA back in the day? I’m trying to figure out why Rebekha Sharkie is doing so well. Other than she is a great MP. 🙂

  4. JimmyD,
    Page has a very good Labor candidate now that Janelle Saffin has decided to contest the NSW State equivalent seat. A winnable smoky, I reckon.

  5. Ipsos Poll – Federal: 20-23 June 2018, 1200 voters

    Two Party Preferred (last election preferences): L/NP 47 (+1) ALP 53 (-1)
    Two Party Preferred (stated preferences): L/NP 46 (-1) ALP 54 (+1)
    Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (-1) ALP 35 (-2) GRN 12 (+1) ON 6 (+1)
    Turnbull: Approve 50 (-1) Disapprove 44 (+5)
    Shorten: Approve 40 (+1) Disapprove 53 (+2)
    Preferred PM: Turnbull 51 (-1) Shorten 33 (+1)

  6. Labor are very likely to win Pearce, Swan and Hasluck and should be considered even money to win Stirling and Canning.

    Two factors will drive WA’s electorate. First, economic weakness translates into anti-incumbent sentiment; and second, there is a prevailing sense that the Libersls have taken WA for granted, especially on fiscal issues, such as the GST split.

    Of course, Turnbull knows he is unwelcome in WA and has barely been here since the last election. This will also add to the general perception that the Libersls are out of touch with WA.

    Labor will run hard and should be favoured to win at least 4 if not 5 of the above seats.

  7. C@tmomma @ #12 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 9:04 pm

    Wow! Using the new Newspoll method of Respondent Allocated Preferences, Ipsos is 54-46 to Labor!!!


    When did Newspoll change to this method?

    I know they changed how they allocated Divided Nation preferences but I have not heard anything about using respondent allocated preferences! 🙂

  8. Watching Turkish election on social media and have to say I’m grateful that we have a reasonably fair, transparent and peaceful democratic process.

    We can talk about winning seats, stress about opinion polls and argue over small time by-elections.

    Over there people are talking fraud, violence and irregularities with polarisation so high in society I’m afraid things may turn ugly.

    Glad to be in Australia on days like this.

  9. No, Newspoll is not using respondent-allocated preferences (apparently Dennis Shanahan wrongly said they were on Sky News once, although that may be case of Chinese whispers). They have modified their allocation of One Nation preferences based on recent state election results, making them more favourable to the Coalition.

  10. William Bowe @ #18 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 9:36 pm

    No, Newspoll is not using respondent-allocated preferences (apparently Dennis Shanahan wrongly said they were on Sky News once, although that may be case of Chinese whispers). They have modified their allocation of One Nation preferences based on recent state election results, making them more favourable to the Coalition.

    Cheers William,

    It didn’t sound right! 🙂

  11. @C@tmomma

    Don Chipp was from Victoria not South Australia, He was first a Liberal member for Higinbotham and then Hotham after that seat was abolished.

  12. Morning all. IA CEO Philip Davies gives (lack of) infrastructure planning a well deserved serve. The fact that a proper planning process may lead to different solutions and less road construction seems to have escaped his attention though. These days industry only sees road projects as a chance to gouge large construction contracts. Union reps are only interested in short term job retention. Reform? What’s that??

  13. As for the polls, dorsn’t the Ipsos result suggest the status quo continues? Considering MOE, writing articles about Shorten or Turnbull’s leadership on the basis of a +/-1 or 2 point swing seems a case of manipulation rather than analysis. Not that I would accuse The Australian of being a blind booster of the Liberal party.

  14. 35%primary each -no great enthusiasm for either side. It is going to be the Rocky 2 election.

    Labor’s made no gains since 2016 and the libs vote has parked with phon.

    You’d have to have a lot of faith in preference allocation to pick this one.

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Crowe on the Ipsos poll.
    The SMH editorial says about the poll that it is tempting to conclude that quite a few voters, especially younger ones, would not mind if the present Prime Minister were leading a government which implemented the opposition’s policies. How will the parties spin that?
    Peter Hartcher posits that the PM’s $144 billion tax cut offer seems to have fallen flat. Have a look at his final paragraph.
    Simon Benson reports that conservative crossbenchers have lashed Pauline Hanson for vowing to block Turnbull’s business tax cuts.
    Urban Wronski pulls the wings off Turnbull’s “aspirational” butterfly.
    Elizabeth Warren gets under Trump’s skin again.
    Trump has called for the US to abandon its judicial system and summarily deport people who enter the country.
    Trump has called for undocumented immigrants to be deprived of legal rights, arguing that people who cross the border into the United States illegally must immediately be deported without trial.
    The automation of Centrelink is “deliberately designed to make it hard for people”, according to a new report from Anglicare Australia, with stories of errors, delays and up to two-hour phone wait times.
    Coalition elder statesmen are ¬urging the government to support coal-fired power as they seek to avoid new government infighting.
    Peter FitzSimons writes that women are living in fear and men have no idea.
    David Crosbie explains how badly drafted foreign agent laws will snare charities. He makes several good points.
    Labor has launched a plan to end NBN “horror stories” by ensuring compensation is paid to small businesses and families if service is not up to scratch.
    Clancy Yeates presages today’s start of the next round of banking royal commission hearings.
    Greg Jericho says the time is ripe for a more activist approach to industrial relations.
    Jess Irvine gives us something to think about as she bemoans the diminution of the “village” contribution to child raising.
    For the first time, patients can view how often a surgeon or specialist has used their private health insurer’s gap cover scheme and gauge the likelihood of facing out-of-pocket costs.
    This will be interesting. Mining giant BHP is facing a class action from up to 400 workers who allege they were left $40 million worse off because they were hired as “casual” workers by labour hire firms and not as permanent staff, despite their rosters being published months in advance.
    AMP board members and senior executives may face criminal charges resulting from investigations by the financial services royal commission. The corporate watchdog ASIC is conferring on the issue with the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), which may see charges brought as early as September.
    Sydney house prices are about to do a flip on the residential boom between 2013 and 2017 and may not be back at last year’s peak by 2021, BIS Oxford Economics says.
    If you need a PhD to read your power bill, buying wisely is all but impossible.
    Michelle Grattan on Albo’s speech.
    Whether or not the Turnbull Government intends to sell the ABC, Martin Hirst argues that the Liberal Party’s internal debate on the issue highlights the democratic deficit at the heart of our system.
    Tobacco franchisees claim they are bullied by the big three tobacco companies, British American Tobacco (BATA), Philip Morris and Imperial Tobacco Australia.

    Cartoon Corner – for what it’s worth!

    Pat Campbell with the work Frydenberg has in front of him tomorrow.

    Jon Kudelka goes hi tech.

    And he releases a second album.
    Alan Moir analyses Trump.

  16. Are you an old white man? If so, your Opinion is valued in the SmearStralian Opinion page – today’s episode could have been commissioned at the front bar of the local bowling club.

  17. @Edwina StJohn

    I tend to agree on your assessment of a “Rocky 2” election coming up. People dismiss me when I predict a hung parliament is a possibility.

  18. jeffemu @ #28 Monday, June 25th, 2018 – 7:24 am

    Sprocket, your posted image of the Aus peaks as you get closer to the bottom right hand corner.

    Hallelujah ❗ Brother.

    I truly believe this is a case of divine intervention.

    The little box showing Gerard Henderson is faded in the original display.

    AND having watched, momentarily, Gerard performing in a 2nd or 3rd rate movie a couple of nights ago, he has not improved his appearance with age, and becoming a journalist a very poor move when his true forte is ………………………….. ❓

    Prayers for a faded Gerard Henderson 🙏.
    Prayers for fresh coffee ☕

  19. Mitt Romney breaks his silence on Trump. He says he supports the corporate tax cuts and allowing multiple use of Utah land, but does not agree with his racism, sexism, division and anti-immigrant rhetoric. And this strikes me as a rebuke for Republicans in Congress who sit silently while TRump destroys the joint.

    People ask me why I feel compelled to express my disagreements with the president. I believe that when you are known as a member of a “team,” and the captain says or does something you feel is morally wrong, if you stay silent you tacitly assent to the captain’s posture.

    Dr. Martin Luther King noted, “our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.” I appreciate the argument made by those who believe we should stay silent, but I cannot subscribe to it. I know that any criticism may lessen the president’s flexibility to enact policy with which I agree, but that end does not justify my silence in the face of things that matter.


  20. Usual commentariat: “Ipsos: ALP DOWN and Turnbull still PREFERRED PM!”

    Reality: “Ipsos: ALP continue in their solid WINNING position against the Coalition with a 53% 2PP”….
    …..Preferred PM being completely irrelevant, it’s repeated by the usual suspects only because it’s the single piece of relative “good news” for the Coalition, without it it would be all just doom and gloom for them…

    No matter what they do, Turnbull and the Coalition are incapable of making any difference…. it’s well and truly over for them, not even Albo can come and save them, no matter how much Murdoch will try with his media spin.

  21. George Williams, along with being a distinguished constitutional lawyer and a Professor at Sydney’s second university, is an old white man.

    Which gives him a slot in the Smear, rather than, say, Megan Davis, who is also a professor of law (and Pro Vice Chancellor) at the same university, but sadly the Smear’s editorial policy precludes female aboriginals from having an opinion.

  22. “35%primary each -no great enthusiasm for either side”….. Greater enthusiasm for the ALP as the fight goes on (53% ALP 2PP)…. It’s going to be a Rumble in the Jungle…. poor Turnbull-Foreman is totally exhausted already….

    Shorten was heard to comment: “Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee”……

  23. lizzie (Block)
    Monday, June 25th, 2018 – 7:06 am
    Comment #451
    Defence industry may be the portfolio officially attached to Christopher Pyne’s name but that doesn’t mean he neglects his other, slightly less official, one. Indeed, as the government’s roving Minister for Talking Up Anthony Albanese Almost If Not Entirely For the Purposes of Stirring the Labor Leadership Possum, Pyne displays an energy that is admirably, almost unnervingly, unflagging. He does it in parliament. He does it in press conferences. He does it on television and radio. And if he could invade your dreams and talk Albo, he probably would. At his press conference last weekend, the official portfolio almost didn’t get a look-in.


    lizzie (Block)
    Monday, June 25th, 2018 – 7:18 am
    Comment #452
    “Inspired by Trump, the world could be heading back to the 1930s”

    Put starkly, the norms and taboos established after the world witnessed the Holocaust are eroding before our eyes. For 70-odd years, roughly the span of a human life, they endured, keeping the lid on the darker impulses that, we had seen, lurked within all of us. It steadily became taboo to voice undiluted racism and xenophobia. Those fears, those loathings of the stranger, never went away, of course. But they were held in check, partly by the knowledge of where such hatred, unrestrained, could lead.

    Now, in the US, Italy, Hungary, Poland and elsewhere, the restraints are off. There even seems to be a macho thrill in breaking the taboo, in echoing the words and deeds of that darkest era in human history. It’s as if the boundaries that were drawn after 1945, demarcating acceptable human behaviour, were mere lines in the sand – and now the tide is coming in.

    It doesn’t happen overnight. It happens bit by bit, word by word, each step taking us lower into the pit. It’s why every one of us has to fight today’s horror. Because if we don’t, who knows what terrors lie ahead?


  24. Alpo @ #40 Monday, June 25th, 2018 – 8:16 am

    “35%primary each -no great enthusiasm for either side”….. Greater enthusiasm for the ALP as the fight goes on (53% ALP 2PP)…. It’s going to be a Rumble in the Jungle…. poor Turnbull-Foreman is totally exhausted already….

    Shorten was heard to comment: “Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee”……

    Mohamed Bill-y?

  25. AM spent 20 minutes spruiking government talking points this morning. They seemed to take particular umbrage at a Labor ad pointing out that Trumble would be a beneficiary of the corporate tax cuts.

    We were treated to a succession of LNP politicians bemoaning Labor’s ‘class welfare’ and then an interview with the Deputy PM and Sabra commenting that the ad was ‘pretty personal’.

  26. Briefly@12:20am
    I think you underestimate the importance of Julie Bishop as deputy Liberal leader and Cormann as Senate leader. After seeing Darling Range result, where there is a swing of 9.1% to LNP( don’t start with it is a state result) from a relatively new ALP government, which won with huge majority, it is very hard for me to believe any analysis of Labor people from WA.
    Also, look at the result from WA after Beazley is dumped as ALP leader. ALP did not win more than 5 seats. Even during Rudd slide ALP got only 4 seats.

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