BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The BludgerTrack pendulum swings back to Labor after a good result for them in this week’s Ipsos poll, both on primary votes and respondent-allocated preferences.

The latest poll from Ipsos, the week’s only fresh result, has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to take a 0.6% turn in Labor’s favour. About half of this is down to the poll recording reasonably strong primary vote numbers for Labor, but the other half is down to Labor’s particularly good result on respondent-allocated preferences. This helps BludgerTrack determine the wild card in the electoral deck, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Since data of this kind is only provided by Ipsos and ReachTEL, results have a fairly substantial impact when they do come along, which might be thought a shortcoming of the model. In any case, the BludgerTrack seat projection now has Labor up one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Ipsos also produced leadership ratings which, after adjustment for Ipsos’s pronounced peculiarities on this score (i.e. how favourable they tend to be for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull), landed right on trend and hence made next to no difference to the existing result.

As always, full results from the link below. And while you’re here, take note of the dedicated post on the Super Saturday by-elections below, and my bi-monthly grovel for money in the post above. Thank you!

Finally, one more polling nugget for good measure: four days ago, GhostWhoVotes related that ReachTEL conducted a poll of the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler, which Labor hasn’t held since Paul Keating was Prime Minister, back on May 17. This had the Liberal National Party leading 54-46, down from 58.4-41.6 at the election, from primary votes of LNP 40.8%, Labor 27.3%, One Nation 14.3% and Greens 4.2%. For whom this poll was conducted and why, I can only speculate. Perhaps the Ghost can fill us in in comments, if he or she is about.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,512 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

  1. Pegasus that assessment is spot on. And it shows up in the comments here.

    My greatest disappointment with PB is the relative lack of discussion about actual policy nuts and bolts.

  2. In regards the cancerous impact of the reductions in penalty rates I am reminded of National Service and Vietnam

    In 1966 the number conscripted was minimal so the multiplied of families impacted was also minimal

    And in regard families I include whole families from Grand parents to parents to siblings to cousins and the circle expanded

    As the years rolled on until 1972 the numbers impacted including extended families had increased – regardless of some then having completed their 2 years and given they were still alive

    So there was a multiplier effect at work

    And the ejection result was what it was – and I am of the view that conscription and Vietnam were central to the result

    Same with penalty rates

    I think that as with conscription and Vietnam this is going to prove terminally cancerous to the Tories – and the excuse it was Labor’s FWC will not wash

  3. And in regard families I include whole families from Grand parents to parents to siblings to cousins and the circle expanded

    lol

  4. What would the next newspoll have to be for Turnbull to call an election? Will the next newspoll be 2 weeks or 3 weeks, for the winter break? Is there presure on Turnbull to call an election before the by elections, because if he calls an election after the by elections he looks stupid?

  5. Why would you call an early election. You would have to be a total idiot. The budget and the economy are all improving. A May 2019 election is the way to go, do Shorten slowly and everything else is garbage.

  6. if I like Micheal Stipe does this make me a poofter?
    And even if it does,is it important.
    Sometimes I get so sick of the world and everyone in it.

  7. Turnbull may well be doing Shorten slowly…has that thought occurred to anyone not looking through their special koolaid glasses?

    Turnbull hasn’t got the political smarts to do ANYONE slowly, let alone Bill Shorten who played him like a fiddle at the last election. As Paul Keating correctly said, Turnbull is a political dunce.

    And those who keep saying the polls will move towards the Liberals as soon as the election is announced have very short memories. At the beginning of the election campaign in 2016 the polls were indicating a resounding win to the Liberals, suggesting they could win up to 85 seats or even more. In the end they just fell in with a one seat majority.

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