BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The BludgerTrack pendulum swings back to Labor after a good result for them in this week’s Ipsos poll, both on primary votes and respondent-allocated preferences.

The latest poll from Ipsos, the week’s only fresh result, has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to take a 0.6% turn in Labor’s favour. About half of this is down to the poll recording reasonably strong primary vote numbers for Labor, but the other half is down to Labor’s particularly good result on respondent-allocated preferences. This helps BludgerTrack determine the wild card in the electoral deck, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Since data of this kind is only provided by Ipsos and ReachTEL, results have a fairly substantial impact when they do come along, which might be thought a shortcoming of the model. In any case, the BludgerTrack seat projection now has Labor up one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Ipsos also produced leadership ratings which, after adjustment for Ipsos’s pronounced peculiarities on this score (i.e. how favourable they tend to be for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull), landed right on trend and hence made next to no difference to the existing result.

As always, full results from the link below. And while you’re here, take note of the dedicated post on the Super Saturday by-elections below, and my bi-monthly grovel for money in the post above. Thank you!

Finally, one more polling nugget for good measure: four days ago, GhostWhoVotes related that ReachTEL conducted a poll of the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler, which Labor hasn’t held since Paul Keating was Prime Minister, back on May 17. This had the Liberal National Party leading 54-46, down from 58.4-41.6 at the election, from primary votes of LNP 40.8%, Labor 27.3%, One Nation 14.3% and Greens 4.2%. For whom this poll was conducted and why, I can only speculate. Perhaps the Ghost can fill us in in comments, if he or she is about.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,512 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. bc says:
    Thursday, June 28, 2018 at 11:28 pm
    William Bowe says Thursday, June 28, 2018 at 9:30 pm

    Changes in Ladbrokes “next Labor leader” market: Albanese out from $1.53 to $1.70, Bowen in from $4 to $2.30.

    I’ve found it amusing that people automatically assume the next Labor leader will be Albanese or maybe Plibersek. I’ve always thought that Bowen and Burke were well in the mix.
    ___________________________

    I reckon Tony Burke would do a great job if Bill fell under a bus.

    Not up to me, but.

  2. it Is a shame though that Labor couldn’t sort out its leadership issues earlier.

    As Julia Gillard used to say “only Labor….”

  3. So The Age now tells us 20,000 businesses are impacted

    So the size of a crowd at a GWS v Gold Coast game and 20% of an AFL Grand Final Game

    And a building Company with a turnover of $13 Million and a NPBT of 10% would be stripped of $60,000- of benefit that kicks in next week under legislation that will be repealed

    And on Tuesday Fairfax printed that the 6 year cross bench Senators would oppose the wind back

    Media

    Bias

    So is this repeal Nation destroying as the Tories and their media would have with all their outrage?

    Or is it a beat up?

  4. Morning all. As Scout says, somebody external always seems to raise Labor leadership every time Labor does well in a poll, even if there is no issue. You might almost think it has become a standard tactic for deflecting attention from somebody else’s leadership issues.

  5. On this frigate decision, I have no objection to it under current international circumstances. But there have been rumours flying around about it for weeks. And it is a national security matter. Its a good thing no politician or insider would ever dream of buying shares in the winning company, or it might be suspicious.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-29/bae-systems-selected-for-warship-building-program/9922666

    Just one more in a long list of examples of why we need a federal ICAC now. People might actually start following the rules if they knew they might actually be enforced.

  6. THE REASONS for the tension between the United States and Russia are well established. Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine, instigated a war in eastern Ukraine, intervened to save the dictatorship of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, interfered in the U.S. presidential election campaign to harm Hillary Clinton and help Donald Trump, poisoned a former intelligence officer on British soil and continues to meddle in the elections of other democracies. Yet on Wednesday in the Kremlin, President Vladimir Putin brushed it all aside and delivered the Russian “maskirovka,” or camouflage, answer that it is all America’s fault.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-kowtowing-to-the-kremlin-again-why/2018/06/28/72a5e718-7ae2-11e8-80be-6d32e182a3bc_story.html?utm_term=.55bf25e32f04

    And what must be galling is that Bolton met with Putin and basically praised him, heaping flattery upon him. Then there was Trump echoing Putin’s statement that Russia did not meddle in US elections in 2016 through his twitter account. This is not good the US ditching its traditional allies in favour of kowtowing to an authoritarian dictator who jails his political opponents among many other anti democratic transgressions.

  7. Observer @ #5 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 5:10 am

    So The Age now tells us 20,000 businesses are impacted

    So the size of a crowd at a GWS v Gold Coast game and 20% of an AFL Grand Final Game

    And a building Company with a turnover of $13 Million and a NPBT of 10% would be stripped of $60,000- of benefit that kicks in next week under legislation that will be repealed

    And on Tuesday Fairfax printed that the 6 year cross bench Senators would oppose the wind back

    Media

    Bias

    So is this repeal Nation destroying as the Tories and their media would have with all their outrage?

    Or is it a beat up?

    I thought they just referred to “the crossbench”. In any case, there is only a couple of 6 year cross benchers (excluding the Greens) isn’t there?

  8. Lizzie

    Yes an appalling abuse of power by Porter. The Turnbull government says nicer words than the Abbott government, but is just as callous. So now reporting on a crime is a bigger crime than committing a crime, for which the original committers were never charged.

    George Orwell’s book 1984 is a pretty accurate description of Turnbulalia. He just got the date wrong by a few years. And he would love “clean coal”, “border security” and “cabinet in confidence” as perfect examples of newspeak.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    A Bankwest banker who quit under a cloud of “conduct issues,” including inflated property valuations, had previously been given a trip to Hayman Island (of all paces!) as a reward for blitzing his sales targets. We are what we measure.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/rogue-banker-who-inflated-loan-values-rewarded-with-hayman-island-trip-20180628-p4zodv.html
    Eryk Baghsaw wring about Labor’s company tax position says the cut would be worth $60,000 for a building company turning over $24 million, with a profit of 10 per cent. I just calculated that he is assuming a net profit before tax of 6% of turnover. The benefit of the tax rate reduction would represent 0.3% of turnover.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-inside-story-of-labor-s-20-billion-tax-shock-20180628-p4zo9t.html
    The Turnbull Government has patted itself on the back for its income tax package but Michael Keating explores why this has done nothing to sway the public vote.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/will-tax-cuts-save-the-turnbull-government,11640
    Michelle Grattan has a look at how Shorten is tracking.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-bill-shorten-had-a-captains-fall-rather-than-making-a-captains-call-99104
    Michael Pascoe has an excellent article on the futility of concentrating on Liddell and coal generation.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/06/28/coal-power-plant-michael-pascoe/
    Adele Ferguson asks, “What do you have to do to get banned for life?” She says it is a question many of the victims of Graeme Cowper will be asking themselves after the corporate watchdog issued the disgraced financial adviser a four year banning order.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/late-lax-and-little-sympathy-asic-s-belated-ban-on-shoddy-planner-20180628-p4zoc9.html
    Obstetricians are saying that unless changes are made to the Medicare rebate – allowing women to claim back a higher portion of out-of-pocket expenses if they use a private obstetrician during their pregnancy and for the delivery – the incidence of women ditching private cover could increase.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/not-at-a-crisis-point-yet-doctors-defend-going-private-to-give-birth-20180628-p4zobw.html
    A whistleblower has said that a KPMG review of ABS’ IT systems ahead of the 2021 census was watered down and compromised to suit the bureau. This is going to end up being very interesting.
    https://outline.com/w5Pddp
    Erin Stewart tells us about the farcical PaTH scheme.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/the-path-scheme-is-a-farcical-way-to-tackle-youth-unemployment-20180628-p4zoaw.html
    Michael Pembroke is concerned that the increasing militarisation of police will invite tragedy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/increasing-militarisation-of-police-invites-tragedy-20180628-p4zod5.html
    The SMH cautiously welcomes the change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/learning-from-the-lessons-of-the-lindt-cafe-siege-20180628-p4zocg.html
    Australia’s “plain” tobacco packaging law was validated at the WTO with the rejection of arguments brought by Cuba, Indonesia, Honduras and Dominican Republic. Good!
    https://outline.com/6pL9sm
    Another one for the bastard file.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/employer-allegedly-threatened-to-kill-families-of-underpaid-massage-parlour-staff-20180628-p4zobj.html
    Next week it will be predatory insurers that will come under the spotlight tr the banking royal commission.
    https://outline.com/rmJXaj
    A Queensland family was forced to sell its farm after Commonwealth Bank subsidiary Bankwest triggered a default on its loans in a way it admitted to the financial services royal commission was unfair and in breach of the banking code of practice.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/06/28/royal-commission-false-valuations/
    Jill Abramson says Trump’s nominee for the supreme court will have to be resisted.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/28/us-supreme-court-trump-justice-kennedy-rightwing-nomination-women
    Online retail giant Amazon is entering the pharmacy business after months of speculation that the company could disrupt how prescription drugs are sold the same way it upended bricks-and-mortar retail.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/chemists-beware-amazon-s-attack-on-pharmacies-has-just-begun-20180629-p4zog2.html
    Homelessness is growing faster in NSW than anywhere else in Australia and despite more than $100 million of funding to help homeless youth, 5000 children arrived alone to seek help or shelter last year. The article shows some disturbing trends.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/5000-kids-arrived-alone-at-a-homeless-service-seeking-help-last-year-20180626-p4znpv.html
    Michael West goes into detail about Emanuel Exports, live sheep exports and regulatory failure.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/emanuel-exports-live-sheep-exports-and-regulatory-failure/
    British ministers and spy chiefs in power after 9/11 are facing new calls to explain their “inexcusable” actions after two damning parliamentary reports set out the scale of UK involvement in the torture and kidnap of terrorist suspects.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jun/28/criticism-mounts-over-uk-post-9-11-role-in-torture-and-rendition
    Electricity discounts don’t necessarily lead to cheaper bills, an Essential Services Commission report has found. The quarterly Victorian Energy Market Update, covering January to March and released on Thursday, said big discounts were often “meaningless” and “confusing”.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/vic/2018/06/28/electricity-energy-bill-discounts-disconnections/
    Sunita Rose from Change.org explains how the new laws will suppress our ability to agitate for change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/next-national-security-blow-will-hit-australians-the-hardest-20180628-p4zoe3.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimons tells us that the corporate regulator has fired a broadside at the $697 billion DIY super industry, with a new report suggesting nine out of 10 self-managed super funds are underpinned by poor financial advice.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/nine-out-of-10-diy-super-funds-based-on-poor-financial-advice-20180628-p4zocw.html
    The Turnbull government says the construction of its new fleet of British-designed naval frigates will create 4000 jobs and create an industry that in future won’t need help from overseas to make large and complex warships. They will be built in Adelaide.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/british-frigate-program-to-seed-australia-s-own-warship-industry-turnbull-says-20180628-p4zofd.html
    As the international refugee crisis worsens, Australia needs to do more to make the situation better and not worse, writes John Haly.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/do-unto-refugees,11643
    Anxiety disorder is rearing its head as a major problem.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-worrying-mental-health-trend-affecting-australians-20180621-p4zmyl.html
    I can’t disagree with anything Richo says in this contribution.
    https://outline.com/8qAbk
    Jenna Price on the end of single-use plastic bags.
    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-death-of-singleuse-plastics–its-in-the-bag-20180628-h11zhm.html
    Yet another multiple shooting in America. Five reported dead so far and several others are crically injured.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/man-arrested-after-shooting-at-us-newspaper-office-in-maryland-20180629-p4zog4.html
    Despite a 12-month investigation, Victorian police cannot explain why a young couple attending a swingers party were shot.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/inflation-nightclub-shooting-investigation-stagnates-one-year-on-20180628-p4zoab.html
    Why the AFL needs a send-off rule.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/why-the-afl-needs-a-send-off-rule-20180628-p4zobk.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Mark David has worked out Porline’s intuition.

    Broelman gives her a good serve too.

    As does Matt Golding.

    And Jon Kudelka.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/95311de3c716351f8655a1972ea641ef
    David Pope uses children’s TV to make his point.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/act/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Here are the Fairfax cartoons we missed yesterday.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-june-28-2018-20180627-h11xyt.html
    Today’s are here.

  10. Bill KristolVerified account@BillKristol
    8h8 hours ago
    At an event last night a Republican donor said to me, “But you’ve got to like Trump’s policies.” I began to respond but his wife (a woman of real accomplishment) interrupted: “No dear. Character matters. It really matters most.”
    If the GOP is to be saved, it will be by the women.

    What Republican women? They’re almost all way crazier and ideological than Republican men!

    That is like saying the Liberal women will be the saviour of the party when Liberal women of character and intellectual standing are practically extinct. They certainly don’t exist in any great numbers within the federal partyroom. Same with Republican women, only the GOP has an even worse track record for attracting women to its ranks than the Liberals do.

  11. Confessions

    I accidentally watched an episode of The Handmaiden last night and stayed with it to find out why it’s supposed to be brilliant.
    Very Swedish noir. Endless long studies of an expressionless face. Lots of snow and a lurking wolf.
    Nothing much happened in over an hour except childbirth, drawn out endlessly. I shan’t waste my time again.

  12. Thanks BK.

    Australia’s “plain” tobacco packaging law was validated at the WTO with the rejection of arguments brought by Cuba, Indonesia, Honduras and Dominican Republic. Good!
    https://outline.com/6pL9sm

    I’m genuinely shocked the coalition haven’t done all they can to reverse our plain packaging laws, seeing as they take Big Tobacco donations.

  13. There will be no leadership change in Labor.

    The tax policy will be finalised soon and I expect a significant policy announcement will be made for the benefit of this quasi election campaign.

    I predict it will flummox the Liberals

  14. Why would you tune in to the penultimate episode of season 2 and make your judgement on that? The whole episode would have been meaningless without context, as you discovered. Not really a valid position to make a criticism from.

  15. shiftaling

    It was not difficult to pick up the ‘context’ through the flashbacks and I already knew the basic plot. Please grant me some intelligence.

  16. Every bad defence procurement decision ever made by Fort Fumble has been repeated in this decision:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/british-frigate-program-to-seed-australia-s-own-warship-industry-turnbull-says-20180628-p4zofd.html

    Not a mature design, so we effectively have to build it ‘off the plans’.
    Designed for a completely different combat system and missile system.
    The Brits have no experience with either the combat or missile systems chosen.
    The losing Spanish design is basically the same as our new air warfare Destroyers, which we have finally got on top of, especially with respect to the Aegis combat system at the heart of both the AWDs and Future Frigates.

    This decsion marks a return to our ‘tugging the forelock’ to Mother. A disgrace.

  17. A whistleblower has said that a KPMG review of ABS’ IT systems ahead of the 2021 census was watered down and compromised to suit the bureau. This is going to end up being very interesting.
    https://outline.com/w5Pddp

    Having been through more Big 4 financial report audits than I care to remember, I’m not sure what they’ve watered down. I’m yet to meet a Big 4 Auditor whose eyes I could not pull the wool over.

    In my most recent run-in with a Big 4 Auditor (year ending December 17) I spend the early part of the audit shitting bricks, having convinced myself that I’d finally gone too far with taking the piss with hiding profit on the balance sheet – we’d made budget for the year and wanted to carry profit over to next year (lets not get into just how much I hid, it was well more than the yearly profit). By the end of it I was getting angry with the guileless fools that had been sent to audit the company as it was clear that they didn’t have a clue.

  18. With the latest US mass shooting being a media outlet I wonder if anyone will tell Trump to stop telling the country the media is the enemy of the people?

    *metaphorical question*

  19. Having been through more Big 4 financial report audits than I care to remember, I’m not sure what they’ve watered down. I’m yet to meet a Big 4 Auditor whose eyes I could not pull the wool over.
    ___
    grimace
    Me too.

  20. Oh come on, your judgement was on one episode which was markedly different in form and tone from much off the rest of the season, contained far less of the political allegory and the flashbacks you mentioned weren’t establishing plot, they were character development for June’s childbirth scene which is a common device throughout the series.

    You are intelligent but it it’s simply not enough material to make thar kind of judgement. Of course it’s up to you what you watch but you miss out on more of the good things with a dismissive attitude based on insufficient evidence

  21. I once spoke to Michael O’Brian about the secret East West link side letter guaranteeing the construction companies profits even if the project didn’t proceed.

    He told me it was common practice on big projects and he was just following this practice.

    I told him that was bullshit and it was irresponsible for a government that looked to be defeated to sign such a letter. Especially as the election was described as a referendum on building the link or not.

  22. lizzie @ #16 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 7:39 am

    Confessions

    I accidentally watched an episode of The Handmaiden last night and stayed with it to find out why it’s supposed to be brilliant.
    Very Swedish noir. Endless long studies of an expressionless face. Lots of snow and a lurking wolf.
    Nothing much happened in over an hour except childbirth, drawn out endlessly. I shan’t waste my time again.

    I would be pleased if you could whisper a word or three about

    Outlander
    and
    Game of Thrones

    Not for the sake of argument.

    I can’t be bothered with either and I share your opinion of The Handmaiden.

    A good morning to all. Quite cool this morning in Newcastle. About 4℃ (with wind chill).
    An excellent day for rest and recreation.
    ☮☕ 🍞 that’s toast and vegemite.

    P.S. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

  23. I heard a bit on ABC radio about the banker who got a trip to the Haymans.

    Putting the incentive aside, he did seem to be in a difficult position. The farmer refused to pay for his farm to be valued and instead accepted (he did sign the loan agreement!) the banker’s own valuation.

    So it was “Give me a loan. No, I don’t want to comply with the usual processes, find a way around them. Oh, good, you did….” then when it all goes pear shaped, “…the b*stard! You over valued my property!”

    You’d expect, of the two of them, that the farmer would have a better idea of what his property was worth than the banker.

  24. There are far, far more government MPs going off piste than Labor ones. Indeed, one Liberal luminary quit to start a new party.

    Yet two Labor MPs not singing off the songsheet is headline news.

  25. I’ve always assumed it was a problem with me, and I think that is a pretty safe bet, but I couldn’t get into the Blind Assassin when I read it either.

  26. “There are far, far more government MPs going off piste than Labor ones. Indeed, one Liberal luminary quit to start a new party.
    Yet two Labor MPs not singing off the songsheet is headline news.”

    It is ‘but her emails’ Australian style, and it isn’t an accident, or poor ALP media handling – it is very poor media / fox propaganda.

  27. Fox News Checks To See If Capital Gazette Was Liberal And Deserved Mass Shooting

    Five people are dead and many more injured in a mass shooting at the Capital Gazette newspaper in Maryland, but Fox News was busy checking to see if the newspaper is liberal or supports Democrats.

    For example, the latest primary, they endorsed a moderate Democrat. So the paper itself very local. Doesn’t seem to have a major ideological bent, if that plays into the motive, we don’t know.”

    Fox News is worried about Trump’s attacks on journalists getting blamed for this shooting

    Fox was also trying to protect their number one viewer. For years, Trump has demonized and attacked journalists and the free press. If the shooter tells police that he carried out this horrendous act because of Trump’s rhetoric, Republicans are going to be scrambling, so Fox was trying to find out if the Capital Gazette was a liberal newspaper that might have provoked the shooter in some way, and thus deserved what happened in their newsroom.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/06/28/fox-news-checks-to-see-if-capital-gazette-was-liberal-and-deserved-mass-shooting.html

  28. A couple of decades ago, a friend of mine was planning to get pregnant, so she went into her local private health insurer.

    The advice she was given was to stick to Medicare – “You’ll end up with the same doctor, in the same hospital, and if anything goes wrong, you’ll be sent to the Children’s regardless.”

    A few days after the birth, she and baby were emergeny coptered down to the Children’s in Melbourne, and spent several weeks there. No charge.

  29. Channel 9 full of Leadershit this morning. Albo was on and I thought played a straight bat (only saw the highlights) but the Ulmann & Karl show would have none of it.

    The CPG have called it. I’m sure that the chair of the National Press Club, Sabra, is printing up the ballot papers as we speak.

  30. Why the Supreme Court matters. And I say this even though it is tawdry how the Scotus has become so politicalised, a plaything for whichever party is in office to stack with their own ideologically-inclined justices.

    If you’ve been spending the past few days pondering some Supreme Court-related historical what-if’s, then try this one on for size. Thurgood Marshall, the court’s first African-American justice, announced his retirement on June 27, 1991. That was, of course, smack in the middle of a Republican presidency — that of George H. W. Bush.

    Mr. Bush, a one-term president, had already made one appointment to the court, David Souter, so Justice Marshall’s retirement was — and indeed was seen as — a gift to the president. He was in his 80s, and he felt increasingly isolated on the court, but it’s also the case that politically, Supreme Court succession wasn’t a life-or-death matter in those days.

    In our time, Justice Marshall would surely have held on, hoping for the possibility of a Democrat winning the presidency in 1992. And as we know, that happened. Bill Clinton won. And here’s where fate’s heavy hand figures in: Mr. Marshall died on Jan. 24, 1993 — Bill Clinton’s third full day as president.

    Had Justice Marshall stuck by his original intention not to retire, Mr. Clinton would have delivered his funeral oration and replaced him. Clarence Thomas would never have been on the court, and we presumably would have had a 5-4 liberal majority rather than a conservative one all these years. No Citizens United, no Hobby Lobby decision, none of the bleak outcomes we’ve been battered with in these past few days.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/28/opinion/sunday/the-right-has-won-the-supreme-court-now-what.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  31. Milo Yiannopoulos said reporters should be ‘gunned down on sight’ shortly before Annapolis newsroom shooting

    Right-wing provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos recently encouraged harm against journalists, reported the Observer.

    After a feature on an Upper East Side restaurant, where Yiannopoulos is a regular, he said he can’t wait for people to start killing reporters.

    “I can’t wait for the vigilante squads to start gunning journalists down on sight,” Yiannopoulos said in a text message.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/milo-yiannopoulos-said-reporters-gunned-sight-shortly-annapolis-newsroom-shooting/

  32. Another Shorten Vibble Vobble coming up as shadow cabinet to meet and overturn his captain’s call on company tax cuts

    i.e. ALP will not vote to overturn the company tax cuts

  33. ..I’d also add, having looked at the figures, that the banker didn’t do too badly. A rural property could easily crash in value from $1.2 million to 750,000, if one valuation was in a time of plenty and another in a drought.

  34. Q: What is the difference between a shopping trolley and a big 4 auditor?
    A: The shopping trolley sometimes has a mind of its own.

  35. The campaign against shorten by the the Oz and other murdoch media, and now fairfax may see a poll swing back to the LNP. David Crowe at fairfax reads so much like an Oz hack that it isn’t funny. I’ve written a complaint to the editor and will cancel my subscription if this keeps up.

    some points missed in the ‘debate’ re: business taxes.

    1. A company with turnover of $10-50 million is not ‘a small business’ as they keep getting referred to by fairfax and murdoch, and at up to 20,000 businesses (as keep being claimed) they make up fewer than 1% of businesses. According to the ABS “Of the 2,238,299 actively trading businesses operating at the end of 2016-17, most (98% or 2,085,729) had annual turnover of less than $2m. About one-third (34.7%; 776,196 units) had turnover of $50k to less than $200k; a further one-third (33.9%; 758,309 units) of businesses had turnover of $200k to less than $2m. A relatively small proportion (less than 3%) of business had an annual turnover of $5m or more.” http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8165.0 The idea that there are heaps of businesses that will be held back by this and not employ people is therefore demonstrable bullshit being peddled by government, murdoch and fairfax.
    2. You only pay tax on profit. Wages and investment come out of profit and are deductible, so any business wanting to do this has incentive to do so already. Reducing tax will feed share payments, not reinvestment in the business, more employment and wages increases to workers.
    3. Franking dividends often mean shareholders pay less personal tax than if they receive profit as a dividend rather than as income, so directors and senior executives often have low income but high share payments. A company tax cut will deliver more profit and tax cuts to the well off. there is no incentive for them to share this with staff and they won’t- look at the surret disconect of profit and real wages growth.
    4. The claim that businesses getting a tax break are going to increase wages is rolled-gold bullshit.
    Labor should also the government to produce figures showing how much wages role in real terms and employment by businesses with turnover over $10 million went up after previous tax cuts to businesses. My experience is that bigger businesses can afford to automate and invest overseas, and pay bigger exec payments and share dividends, and so employ fewer people per $1 turnover than actual smaller businesses. They can also afford accountants and ‘clever’ accounting to avoid tax.

    finally – labor needs to question Turnbull about how much harder than a farmer, builder, teacher, or nurse he has worked to ‘earn’ his millions. Has he worked 100s or 1,000s of times harder than them. Labor needs to remind people he made his first millions advising Kerry Packer how to avoid tax, and his multi-millions working for a merchant bank that floated and paid him share dividends, and that this firm broked the sale of Ozemail that converted his $450,000 share into almost $60million. Labor needs to ask him how many blisters and hours it took him to ‘earn’ this and how much tax he paid on it. They need to remind people about the Cayman Islands and the Panama Papers – perhaps listing the company he keeps by being named in these.

  36. Yep. HH – that’s exactly what’s going to happen … thank god Labor Cabinet takes instruction from the CPG. Where would we be if they didn’t. The CPG are so wise. We are lucky to have them quitely steering the government and opposition in the right direction.

  37. Just on 6 year term cross benchers, excluding Greens, there are 4.

    Pauline Hanson
    Bernardi who got in as #1 on the SA Liberal ticket
    2 x Central Sellouts, who got in on the coat tails of Lowe’s suit wearing slum lord Xenephon

    The remaining gaggle of cross benchers must face the electoral music some time before May 2019.

  38. There was some discussion in the last thread about various Metros. I have commuted on a few: Beijing, Shanghai, Prague, St Petersburg and my favorite Moscow. I know I am a bit of a Russiaphile and totally biased, but the Moscow system is a paradise. Runs on time with old rattlers (vintage from memory – nice an old). The most impressive thing is the architecture. The stations on the ring line are just superb. Soviet frescos, that all have a theme: Kievskaya, Beloruskaya depict contribtions from the people of Ukraine and Belorus respctively. My favorite – Ploshchad Revolyutsii (Revolution Square). Beautiful bronze statues depicting Russian vocations. There is a beautiful bronze of a Russian Soldier with his Dog. The nose of the dog is bright and polished, as rubbing it is meant to bring the luck. I have rubbed that sucker vigorously on about 4 different journeys, but the Tories are still on the government benches. Must rub harder next time.

    The metro stations were also constructed to double as nuclear shelters, and there is meant to be a secret line, that the members of the Politburo used to use to convey back and forth to the Duma (I think?).

    For a handful of Roubles you can spend a whole day travelling around underground, admiring the awe and the beauty of soviet architecture, and have a window into the soul of the Russian populace.

    Do yourselves a favour and google images the Moscow Metro…truly wonderful.

  39. ‘You caused this, Mr. President’: Internet pummels Trump for calling media the enemy before Annapolis newspaper shooting

    President Donald Trump routinely uses harsh rhetoric towards the news media. Most recently, he called the media America’s greatest enemy.

    “The FAKE NEWS media (failing @nytimes, @NBCNews, @ABC, @CBS, @CNN) is not my enemy, it is the enemy of the American People!” President Trump tweeted.

    On Thursday there was an active shooter at the Capital Gazette newspaper in Annapolis, Maryland that left five people dead.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/caused-mr-president-internet-pummels-trump-calling-media-enemy-annapolis-newspaper-shooting/

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