BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The BludgerTrack pendulum swings back to Labor after a good result for them in this week’s Ipsos poll, both on primary votes and respondent-allocated preferences.

The latest poll from Ipsos, the week’s only fresh result, has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to take a 0.6% turn in Labor’s favour. About half of this is down to the poll recording reasonably strong primary vote numbers for Labor, but the other half is down to Labor’s particularly good result on respondent-allocated preferences. This helps BludgerTrack determine the wild card in the electoral deck, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Since data of this kind is only provided by Ipsos and ReachTEL, results have a fairly substantial impact when they do come along, which might be thought a shortcoming of the model. In any case, the BludgerTrack seat projection now has Labor up one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Ipsos also produced leadership ratings which, after adjustment for Ipsos’s pronounced peculiarities on this score (i.e. how favourable they tend to be for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull), landed right on trend and hence made next to no difference to the existing result.

As always, full results from the link below. And while you’re here, take note of the dedicated post on the Super Saturday by-elections below, and my bi-monthly grovel for money in the post above. Thank you!

Finally, one more polling nugget for good measure: four days ago, GhostWhoVotes related that ReachTEL conducted a poll of the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler, which Labor hasn’t held since Paul Keating was Prime Minister, back on May 17. This had the Liberal National Party leading 54-46, down from 58.4-41.6 at the election, from primary votes of LNP 40.8%, Labor 27.3%, One Nation 14.3% and Greens 4.2%. For whom this poll was conducted and why, I can only speculate. Perhaps the Ghost can fill us in in comments, if he or she is about.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,512 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. Closing time
    Time for you to go out go out into the world.
    Closing time
    Turn the lights up over every boy and every girl.
    Closing time
    One last call for alcohol so finish your whiskey or beer.
    Closing time
    You don’t have to go home but you can’t stay here.
    I know who I want to take me home.
    I know who I want to take me home.
    I know who I want to take me home.
    Take me home
    Closing time
    Time for you to go back to the places you will be from.
    Closing time
    This room won’t be open ’til your brothers or you sisters come.
    So gather up your jackets, and move it to the exits
    I hope you have found a
    Closing time
    Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.
    Yeah, I know who I want to take me home.
    I know…

  2. This morning someone (it may have been lizzie) posted an article that wondered how Oz media could counter the lies and distortions from political parties. I responded that news outlets in the US like the WaPo do this routinely by stating facts. Here’s another eg from the article I posted below:

    The assessment stands in stark contrast to President Trump’s exuberant comments following the summit, when he declared on Twitter that “there is no longer a nuclear threat” from North Korea. At a recent rally, he also said he had “great success’’ with Pyongyang.

    It’s still straight reporting using Trump’s own words to illustrate his wrong-headed commentary.

  3. I just don’t get how threatened some keyboard heroes are by someone who actually gets up and gives it a crack!?!

    For shits and giggles you should change your screen name temporarily to Gosford Godzilla.


  4. I think there’s a story to tell about this Newspoll.

    Yesterday, as I was walking back to my hotel, like a complete numpty I waved my ‘Save the ABC placard’ at anyone and everyone. So, as I was waiting at the lights to cross the road from the Sydney Town Hall I noticed a Police Officer. I thought to myself, ‘Well here’s your typical Channel 7 and 9 viewer who would be happy to see the ABC sold off’. But I stupidly waved my sign at him and said, ‘Save the ABC!’, albeit in a low key way. To my complete and utter surprise, he replied, ‘You bet!’

    THESE are the sort of people who are keeping the ALP vote bouyant. People you would least expect. 🙂

  5. An interesting and somewhat confronting theory of voter behaviour and democracy.

    Two eminent political scientists: The problem with democracy is voters
    Why almost everything you think about democracy is wrong.

    This is a story political scientists Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels tell in Democracy for Realists, in service of a sobering thesis: Voters don’t have anything like coherent preferences. Most people pay little attention to politics; when they vote, if they vote at all, they do so irrationally and for contradictory reasons.

    The book lays waste to a reassuring theory about democracy that goes something like this: Ordinary citizens have preferences about what the government ought to do; they elect leaders who will carry out those preferences and vote against those who will not; in the end, we’re left with a government that more or less serves the majority.

    Even voters who pay close attention to politics are prone — in fact, more prone — to biased or blinkered decision-making. The reason is simple: Most people make political decisions on the basis of social identities and partisan loyalties, not an honest examination of reality.

    “Election outcomes,” Achen and Bartels conclude, “turn out to be largely random events from the viewpoint of democratic theory.”

    If Achen and Bartels are right, democracy is a faulty form of politics, and direct democracy is far worse than that. It virtually guarantees that at some point, you’ll end up with a grossly unfit leader.

  6. Fess – the SBS show about the NYTimes (I think) “Fourth Estate” shows how political newsrooms should operate. Hubby (a journalist by trade) says it is VERY accurate (should be — it is actual filming of the news being generated).

    Unlike NYT our newsrooms are so poor (financially and talent-wise) that it is a matter of piggy-backing off each other and recycling.

  7. I’m so shocked I might die. catmomma has it ever entered your head that there are people that may disagree with you?

  8. So the government cheer squad is besotted by having a pm where very near 50% disapprove of the job he is doing

    And polling continuing to show that the government will lose an election – noting it holds a 1 seat majority

    This when media tells us the Opposition Leader, by changing the position in regards a component of tax measures, has committed political suicide

    48% do not think favourably of the pm

    When Shorten assumes the pm position then we will see how he rates – until then any polling on preferred pm is speculation because one is tested and the other is not

    The headline issue the pm is now left with is supporting tax cuts for the banks and cutting penalty rates

    We will see how that plays out – because that is the narrative

    With 5 young adult children attempting to make their way in life with their young children I know where they come from – and where my wife and I come from

    And the reasons

    So who supports a race to the bottom on Corporate tax obligations inspired and led by Trump and to the benefit of our pristine banks (who are incidentally busy retrenching staff aka NAB but not only them – look at Branch closures in the suburbs and in Regional and Rural Australia) and others whilst those on penalty rates have those penalty rates progressively removed (and, to boot, our politicians get a pay rise AND a tax cut) and median income earners get tax relief of $10- a week?

    Sometime in the future

    That is the now crystalized narrative

    The name calling will continue, obviously but to what effect?

    Plays to the rusted on but past that?

  9. Simple question, Bushfire Bill. You do realise how disrespectful it is to keep calling me the ‘Gosford Godzilla’, don’t you? Or don’t you care?

    C@t, take Confessions’ advice a few posts above.

    My comment a few minutes ago was meant lightly, as you yourself seemed to adopt the term yesterday, and one or two others here used it jokingly as well, without complaint from you.

  10. Cat – would have loved to be there with you today … got an invite to the women’s brekky yesterday and was so disappointed I couldn’t go. Did you?

  11. Peter Van Olsen just tweeted that he did not renew his contract with SkyNews over issues with attacking his wife. Anyone got any details?

    Also PVO just called David Speers out on his BS.

  12. jenauthor @ #1449 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 10:20 pm

    ESJ & Rex … you do realise that next #newspoll will occur when a LOT of people get less in their paypackets. D’you Think they’ll be thanking Miracle Mal?

    Exactly. Today Bill Shorten promised to restore Penalty Rates in his first 100 days. He will have a mandate from the election, so the Senate Conservatives that are still there on the Crossbench better think twice about blocking it with the Coalition. Or, if they do, especially the Coalition, they can forget ever using the mandate excuse for doing whatever they want to after an election win again.

    Bill Shorten promised to save the ABC and restore it’s funding.

    He also promised $6 Billion! for Public Transport infrastructure projects for Western Sydney.

    He promised $600 Million for more Commuter Car Parks.

    He promised to make 1/10 jobs on government work for Australian Apprentices.

    He promised to get the NDIS and NBN back on track.

    What’s not to like!?!

  13. The PPM thing will be interesting when/if Bill assumes the role.

    Turnbull has been a BIG disappointment – started with stellar ratings and crashed miserably. Electorate had such high expectations, none of which have been fulfilled.

    Electorate has no expectations of Shorten, so he may well rise during his PMship.

    That would REALLY irk Mal ‘please like me’ Turnbull.

  14. Bushfire Bill @ #1466 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 10:41 pm

    Simple question, Bushfire Bill. You do realise how disrespectful it is to keep calling me the ‘Gosford Godzilla’, don’t you? Or don’t you care?

    C@t, take Confessions’ advice a few posts above.

    My comment a few minutes ago was meant lightly, as you yourself seemed to adopt the term yesterday, and one or two others here used it jokingly as well, without complaint from you.

    You should learn how to use emojis then. 🙂

  15. the SBS show about the NYTimes (I think) “Fourth Estate” shows how political newsrooms should operate.

    I haven’t seen that Jen, will have to check it out.

    I follow a few White Correspondents on Insta and am always taken aback at how aggressive they are compared with our press gallery. Our mob are like sheep compared with their US counterparts. Even Jonathon Swan is like a totally different journalist over there.

  16. Oh yeah. And what does Malcolm Turnbull have to offer?

    Tax Cuts for his Corporate Mates.

    ‘Mates Rates’, as they were described by Bill Shorten today. 🙂

  17. Essential and ReachTel still to come this week. (ReachTel were polling late last week.)

    As jenauthor noted, the next round of polls after that will start factoring in the consequences of penalty rate cuts. That is going to be much worse news for the Turnbull and his government than Shorten’s week has been for him.

    At worst Shorten made a rare poor call, and quickly reversed it.

    But for Turnbull the effects of his penalty rate cuts will be cumulative, deleterious, and permanent for millions of voters and their families, and they will be rudely reminded of it every single pay day from now to the election.

    It may the single biggest reason for Turnbull to pull the election trigger sooner than later.

  18. Ides:

    No idea. I have a vague recollection of PvO going off on twitter about his wife being targetted for something or other, but can’t recall the specifics. Perhaps it was that.

  19. At worst Shorten made a rare poor call, and quickly reversed it.

    He also turned his messaging on the issue on a dime as well. Today he said that he supports tax cuts for 99.8% of businesses. 🙂

  20. Van Onselen tweeted that there was an attack on his wife which was not apologised for. So he told them he wouldn’t renew his contract.

    I don’t much like his wife’s politics but good on him for standing by her.

    It is getting more appalling by the day at SKY — it is as if they WANT to be FoxNews … literally.

  21. I believe Gary Hardgrave has his own Sky show.

    The man has the TV presence of Gerard Henderson. I can’t even begin to imagine what was going through the powers-that-be heads when they agreed to that.

  22. Rex Douglas @ #1483 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 10:56 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1481 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 10:51 pm

    At worst Shorten made a rare poor call, and quickly reversed it.

    He also turned his messaging on the issue on a dime as well. Today he said that he supports tax cuts for 99.8% of businesses. 🙂

    and you cheered loudly I’m thinking ?

    Yep. Analysis has suggested that the bulk of the economic harm is done by the last tranche of the corporate tax cuts. Plus, Labor will close loopholes the Coalition won’t go near, as well as sort out the Family Trust tax dodge.

  23. Bushfire Bill says:
    Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 10:50 pm
    I am already seeing Shorten’s spending promises depicted by some commentators as a “cash splash”.

    I don’t necessarily see that as a negative thing for Shorten, as much as the Liberals would like to paint it that way. He has a war chest of money to spend and the voters will warm to that IMO, especially as he has already flagged that he also intends to pay down the national debt faster than the government can.

  24. Bushfire Bill @ #1487 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 11:00 pm

    Exams of use of “cash splash”. Sarah Gerathy on the ABC website.

    Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has promised a $6 billion cash splash to build the Sydney Metro West and the rail line to Sydney’s second airport at Badgerys Creek.

    Yes, it makes it sound like he wants to build castles in the sky, as opposed to creating a rail link to the new airport, so people will no longer be able to be ripped off for parking fees! Plus, giving jobs to a lot of folk out that way.

  25. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 11:07 pm
    Night all. Adrenaline has run out.

    Night C@t
    Keep up the good work.

  26. SBS needs a proofreader!

    Labor leader Bill Shorten’s backflip on tax policy has seen his approval ratings slide, leaving his party trailing the coalition.

    UpdatedUpdated 19 mins ago

    Labor’s lead over the coalition has slipped in the latest Newspoll after Bill Shorten’s backflip on tax cuts.

    The coalition now trails Labor 49 to 51 on the two-party preferred basis, according to the poll published by News Corp Australia on Sunday night.

  27. shorten has made a long term bad call – thinking he was leadership material

    listened for few minutes today – he’s no charmer in public, lost in the woods

  28. Well it was a dumb stupid idiot party of course, but not a EDJ “Shorten is fucked” moment.

    silly stupidnesss..

    Remember Governments loose elections, not Oppositions.

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