Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Both sides down on the primary vote in Ipsos, as ReachTEL reiterates early findings of a big lead for Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo, and a squeaker in Longman.

My warning of a poll drought in the previous post hadn’t reckoned on Fairfax’s Ipsos series, which fills the void with a 53-47 result for Labor, down from 54-46 from the previous poll six weeks ago. As best as I can tell, all we have to go on at this stage is an editorial in The Age that suggests both major parties are on 35% of the primary vote, which is a two point drop for Labor and a one point drop for the Coalition. Leadership ratings and minor party primary votes will have to wait. Recent form suggests the poll will have had a sample of 1200, and been conducted Thursday to Sunday.

We also have two more federal by-election polls for the Australia Institute from ReachTEL, keeping in mind that the prestige of ReachTEL’s electorate polls have just taken a knock with the Liberals’ clear win in Darling Range. That’s all the comfort Georgina Downer can draw from its results, the latest of which gives Rebekha Sharkie her biggest lead yet in Mayo: 62-38 on two-party preferred, from primary votes (after exclusion of the 2.6% undecided) of 43.5% for Sharkie, 32.7% for Downer, 9.0% for the Greens and 8.2% for Labor.

In Longman, ReachTEL now records a 50-50 result after showing Liberal National Party candidate Trevor Ruthenberg leading Labor Section 44 victim Susan Lamb by 51-49. Primary votes after exclusion of 3.2% undecided are Labor 40.4%, LNP 36.1%, One Nation 15.2% and Greens 4.5%, so presumably One Nation’s respondent-allocated preferences are flowing solidly to the LNP. This poll was also conducted on Thursday, from a sample of 727. Full results from both polls are available here.

UPDATE: Those missing primary votes from Ipsos turn out to be 12% for the Greens, up one, and 6% for One Nation, also up one. The respondent-allocated two-party result goes the other way from the headline result, with Labor now leading 54-46, up from 53-47. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are down on his unusually strong result last time, with approval down one to 50% and disapproval up five to 44%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 40% and two to 53% (both leaders do unusually well on this metric from Ipsos). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 51-33, down from 52-32.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,220 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. Boerwar:

    I agree with you, except the govt temporarily shelving its company tax cuts after all the hysterical rhetoric about them being necessary for growth and jobs looked a little weak.

  8. What a surprise, not really, that Pegasus gleefully trolls the federal and Victorian Labor leaders.

    Never a cross word about the Liberal leaders.

  9. Lenin used to hate the ALP as well C@t. Quite preoccupied, which was odd given he must have had a lot of other stuff on his plate at the time.

    C u at conference comrade.

  11. What a surprise, not really, that Pegasus gleefully trolls the federal and Victorian Labor leaders.

    A sign of immaturity and lack of interest on policy issues. People who genuinely want to reach out to political leaders would not behave like a misbehaving teenager.

  12. Andrew_Earlwood

    Indeed, some Aus election commentary from Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov.

    Labour Government in Australia

    The parliamentary elections took place in Australia recently. The Labour Party, which had the majority in the Lower House, having forty-four seats out of seventy-five, suffered defeat. Now it only has thirty-six seats out of seventy-five. The majority has passed to the Liberals, but this majority is very unstable, because in the Upper House, thirty out of the thirty-six seats are occupied by Labour.

    What a peculiar capitalist country is this in which Labour predominates in the Upper House and recently predominated in the Lower House and yet the capitalist system does not suffer any danger! An English correspondent of a German Labour newspaper recently explained this circumstance, which is very often misrepresented by bourgeois writers.

    The Australian Labour Party does not even claim to be a Socialist Party. As a matter of fact it is a liberal-bourgeois party, and the so-called Liberals in Australia are really Conservatives
    …………………And while in England the so-called “Labour Party” represents an alliance between the socialist trade unions and the extreme opportunist Independent Labour Party, in Australia, the Labour Party represents purely the non-socialist trade unionist workers.

    The leaders of the Australian Labour Party are trade union officials, an element which everywhere represents a most moderate and “capital serving” element, and in Australia it is altogether peaceful, and purely liberal.

    https://www.marxists.org/history/erol/australia/hill-a-rev/app-2.htm

  14. http://insidestory.org.au/was-this-bill-shortens-worst-week/

    “He might have felt nettled on Tuesday morning after the Financial Review’s bureau chief Phillip Coorey confirmed with Senate crossbenchers that they would block any attempt by Labor in government to take back the tax cuts that are now law.”

    After the next half Senate election it won’t matter what most of the current cross bench think, they won’t get reelected.

  15. The Grandkids are upset. The wishing chair book one was in the Library, they liked so we being good grand parents went out and brought book 2. Chinky is now Blinky. Good god the world has gone mad.

  16. This is just the way it will be.

    Bingo Doyley.

    Shorten became leader of the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party less than 6 years after being elected to Parliament. Only Hawke and Curtin had less time in Parliament since Watson became Leader in the First Parliament. That ain’t bad company.

    You don’t get that high that fast without having seen off a lot more serious threats than the combined pissants of the Canberra Press Gallery. Shorten would have seen off dipshits like your average journo as part of his daily duties as an AWU organiser. And still those imbeciles discount him despite all the times he rubs their stupid faces in their own stupidity.

    To get to the leadership he saw off the outgoing Deputy Prime Minister who won the rank and file vote convincingly. Niff nuffs off the street don’t do that. You can bullshit about union this or union that, but the simple fact is that the caucus wanted Shorten as their leader despite what the rank and file thought, and have stood by him with rock solid loyalty since. People out of their depth don’t pull that sort of feat off, unite a badly riven party, take a new PM with a massive majority down, then bring his ridiculously over promoted (by the love struck media) replacement to the brink of a loss in one term.

    I’d just like if some of these overpaid halfwits in the media could get just a bit of self awareness. They don’t have to like him. They don’t have to approve of Labor’s policies (and damn this is a policy rich opposition under Shorten). But they damn well should have the decency to admit he’s got every single one of them covered for the sheer hard grind of politics. He’s got the Pompous Prick from Point Piper well and truly covered. And he’s got Albo well and truly covered. They simply embarrass themselves with this continued Kill Bill nonsense. All of the times they’ve decided in their infinitely small wisdom that Shorten has made an error the polls simply refuse to agree with them. The should all just fuck off and get a job suited to their abilities. Speed humps and toilet brushes would probably overstretch them.

  17. I see the Greens have got on the current kill bill band wagon. I suspect by next week it will be concluded it was nothing more than a very little hill of beans whipped up without success by the the CPG.

  19. “Conservative governments love to talk about “cutting waste” but they really just mean cutting services.”

    They regard spending on health, education and income support for the aged, the disabled and the sick as wasteful.

  20. A_E,
    You will be able to easily recognise me at the conference. I will be the fat, ugly one whose name tag will read : Gosford Godzilla. 😉

  21. ratsak
    I see the CPG has got you to the point where they fed up with their nonsense. I’m trying to give them credit of having two neurons. We have some by election’s coming up, they are throwing all their cred on the fire trying to have an upset there.

  22. Trump just tweeted..

    Just watched @SharkGregNorman on @foxandfriends. Said “President is doing a great job. All over the world, people want to come back to the U.S.” Thank you Greg, and you’re looking and doing great!

  24. What-A-Shocker:

    Andrew Bartlett
    ‏Verified account @AndrewBartlett
    36m36 minutes ago

    Andrew Bartlett Retweeted Matthew Rimmer

    Coalition & Labor join in Senate to pass sweeping new espionage powers (& also vote against attempt to allow better scrutiny of those powers) on the same day they Govt charges lawyer who helped reveal past illegal activity of our Govt’s own spy agency #auspol

  25. Bernard Keane
    ‏Verified account @BernardKeane
    11h11 hours ago

    Another step on our road to a police state: Bernard Collaery and Witness K face jail for revealing ASIS illegally bugged the East Timor government. This will be a huge free speech case

  26. And no doubt BW wiil Agree with the Gun-Tooting Minister:

    Sarah Hanson-Young

    ‏Verified account @sarahinthesen8
    6h6 hours ago

    Earlier today in the Senate chamber, during a motion about violence against women & rape, Senator Leyonhjelm yelled across the chamber at me “you should stop shagging men, Sarah”.
    188 replies 437 retweets 465 likes

  28. C@tmomma

    Take it up with the translator re the spelling 🙂

    John R
    Yes, some of his observations did sound very familiar 🙂

  29. Without consulting his shadow cabinet or party room, he has committed Labor to a policy which it cannot deliver — and which will cost it crucial support both in next month’s by-elections, and in the coming federal election, whenever that’s held.

    Eh Tim, lots of certainty in that first para. Certainty that Labor CAN’T deliver. Certainty that the policy WILL cost votes.

    Good to see you so ridiculously confident that you have all the answers and a guy who actually does politics seriously (like he faces negative consequences when he gets it wrong serious) is a numpty.

    Must be nice to be able to be a blowhard with all the answers and get paid for it. I quite enjoy the blowharding bit too. Can be very entertaining to just post a bunch of crap with no real consequences if it’s wrong. It’s the getting paid for it bit that I’m struggling with.

    Is it because I’m not getting it as horribly arse about as you and your mates in the media? Is actually fluking a clue a disadvantage in the bullshitting for money caper? All you clowns getting paid have said how attacking the 2014 budget was a mistake from Shorten, how coming out with ‘courageous’ tax policies was a mistake, how this or that was a big test for Bill. I’ve said to each you were all full of shit, and that’s pretty much how it has turned out. But you get paid, and I just do it for the shits and giggles.

    So Tim, can you please confirm. Is being wrong actually an asset in the bullshitting for cash game? It seems to be that way, but for a simpleton who imagined that actually doing your job correctly might be a good way to get paid to do it this seems counter intuitive. Or have I completely misunderstood what ‘doing your job correctly’ entails when I imagine providing accurate information to people is part of ‘doing your job correctly’ when it comes to political reporting?

  30. Just watched @SharkGregNorman on @foxandfriends. Said “President is doing a great job. All over the world, people want to come back to the U.S.” Thank you Greg, and you’re looking and doing great!

    What a terribly small knob he must have to compensate in this way.

  32. Given the redistribution name of Spence to replace Wakefield has been confirmed by the AEC people I have converted my moniker to Spence. Catherine Helen Spence was a very prominent social reformer in SA in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Prominent campaigner for women’s rights and votes for women. Also active in electoral reform including support for proportional voting, Hare Clark system.

    Edward Wakefield had some early involvement with the colonisation theory behind SA colonial project. Nothing much later. As Boerwar commented a few days ago he was also notorious for time in goal for kidnapping and marrying a 15 year old heiress and other relationships. Never visited SA but was active in New Zealand. All over the place in political allegiances.

    Interesting that ALP in SA opposed change to name Wakefield for electorate along with a few former Liberal members for Wakefield such as Neil Andrew. The Liberal Party (and Christopher Pyne personally) supported the change to Spence. Along with Malcolm Mackerras.

  35. What a disaster of a week for the coalition. ScoMo and Cormann should go. Can’t count to 8 (crossbenchers) and they are in charge of the Nations finances!!!

    Turnbull doing a deal with PHON re deferment of Co tax cuts. The jellyfish and the flip flopper. Can any Lib stand up and roll him. Probably not, you need a backbone for that.

    Labor – workers, families, health, education, 30+ polls in a row.

    L/NP cuts, cuts, lower wages, axed penalty rates, more visa workers, NBN, Abbott, the not needed banking RC, lots of shouting at QT and 30+polls in a row.

    I don’t believe any of this crap about turmoil within Labor no matter what the MSM claim. The rank and file should be happy for Labor to ‘keep doing what you’re doing’ and the good polls will just keep coming.

  37. C@t

    Tim Colebatch got the sharp elbow from Fairfax. THAT’S how good he is!
    ________________________________________

    Maybe he’s trying to get his job back by taking the lead from the Murdoch plant David Crowe.

  38. In Victoria, after Bracks focussing on the delivery of every election undertaking and then Brumby being surprisingly defeated, we had an ill prepared Liberal government where polling confirmed they were a “do nothing” government which then changed Leader to change perceptions

    Then, on the cusp of 4 year elections, the so called East West Link was marketed and a Contract was signed to present that the Liberal Party was a “do something” government

    The election was presented as a referendum (including by Abbott) on the so called East West Link with Labor opposing the project and reviewing the Contract saying it could be scrapped

    Labor won the election and scrapped the so called East West Contract – except it then came to light that the Liberal Party had signed side letters, a poisoned chalice in case of losing the election noting Polls favoured Labor

    Since then Labor have undertaken significant infrastructure works, road and train such that where ever you go you see works in progress including level crossing removals

    Plus there has been significant social legislation

    The CFA issue inherited continues with the CFA still seeking to maintain status in areas of Melbourne which are now residential suburbs, so metropolitan

    The Opposition?

    Still want to build the so called East West Link pointing to the exit cost incurred due to the Side Letters confirming their poison chalice purpose

    The Opposition have the unilateral support of media – including the Costello Phoenix 9 Network attempting to have us believe that Melbourne is an unsafe jurisdiction – but people still go about their business

    So it is Law and Order and roads – and appeasing their major donors being the alleged criminals the Opposition Leader associates with plus a gaggle of property developers he gave significant advantage to whilst Planning Minister adding to their significant wealth

    Then you have Bastiaan, a 28 year old who is the President in waiting of the Liberal Party having recruited Mormons and other right wing religious followers to the Party to give himself and his wife the numbers – and his ally, Sukkar

    Bastiaan and Sukkar now control the Party in Victoria and anyone who does not follow their social conservative religious agenda is ejected – with Kroger and Guy subservient

    Then you have Cormack – and the personality factions of Kennett, Costello and others constantly at war with their egos and entitlement

    Interestingly, the Murdoch media have published no polling ahead of an election due in 5 months time

  39. ReachTel in the field

    Federal 1st pref?
    Better PM?
    Turnbull performance?
    Shorten performance?
    Better ALP leader?
    10-50m company tax cuts?
    >50m company tax cuts?
    Should Oz meet emissions targets?
    Should coal fired power be part of mix?

    (Not sure remembered last question right.)

    —————————–

    As to Shorten and Labor’s “bad week”, it may well have been. But it may have instead been part of a strategy to lure Mal into a premature election.

  40. C@tmomma @ #2170 Thursday, June 28th, 2018 – 8:05 pm

    I will be the fat, ugly one whose name tag will read : Gosford Godzilla.

    I am confused. Are you the one on the left or the right in this photo ?

  42. Who is talking about personal tax cuts now? No one.

    Who is talking about company tax cuts? Everyone.

    I reckon it’s a calculated move ahead of the by elections.

  44. Jennifer JacobsVerified account@JenniferJJacobs
    45m45 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Trump and Putin will hold their first bilateral summit in Helsinki on July 16 as the leaders seek to reverse a downward spiral in relations that has been exacerbated by findings that Russia meddled in U.S. elections.

    Well that explains Trump’s tweet. Mere sucking up to the boss.

  45. “Still want to build the so called East West Link pointing to the exit cost incurred due to the Side Letters confirming their poison chalice purpose”
    Those exit letters look like corruption. A tired Government in its dying days tried to commit a future Government to some dodgy deal, on pain of flushing $1.2 billion down the toilet. The incoming Government should have passed special legislation to revoke any such deal. Then it should have launched an enquiry into the background.

    What poison pills will Turnbull leave behind? Possibly the NEG to start with.

  47. William

    I really do shudder to think how people who hold Tim Colebatch in contempt imagine political or economic journalism should look.

    _____________________________________

    Well, it could look seriously at the policy instead of fatuous absolute assertions as to the politics down the track, based on nothing more than the writer’s prejudices. After all, we do that gratis here – albeit following a different set of biases.

    Lenore Taylor is good. And so is Katharine Murphy, despite the flak she cops from some here. Andrew Probyn was good before he joined the ABC and is still one of their better ones. As for the economics, Michael Pascoe and Ian Verrender are very good – especially Verrender. So is Stephen Long. Martin used to be good, but he’s just bizarre now. Gittins is pretty good – he has a strong moral underpinning.

  48. “I really do shudder to think how people who hold Tim Colebatch in contempt imagine political or economic journalism should look.”

    I’m not personally sure whether or not Tim was on it or not, but anyone formerly a journo who got on the Kill Bill bus this week, a bus commissioned by Chris Pyne, needs to take a good hard look at themselves and ask do they want to be Sean Hannity or a journalist, you can’t be both.

  49. Nick Ross also nailed journalism’s institutional inability to swim against the tide, even a really stupid tide, today I think, but i’m not sure if it was in a kill bill context or not.

  50. Let’s just imagine, purely hypothetically, the St Bill the Infallible actually did make a mistake, in the manner of an ordinary mortal human. And let’s say that journalists and commentators noticed he had done so, and gave him negative coverage as a result. What would the response here look like, I wonder.

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