Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Both sides down on the primary vote in Ipsos, as ReachTEL reiterates early findings of a big lead for Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo, and a squeaker in Longman.

My warning of a poll drought in the previous post hadn’t reckoned on Fairfax’s Ipsos series, which fills the void with a 53-47 result for Labor, down from 54-46 from the previous poll six weeks ago. As best as I can tell, all we have to go on at this stage is an editorial in The Age that suggests both major parties are on 35% of the primary vote, which is a two point drop for Labor and a one point drop for the Coalition. Leadership ratings and minor party primary votes will have to wait. Recent form suggests the poll will have had a sample of 1200, and been conducted Thursday to Sunday.

We also have two more federal by-election polls for the Australia Institute from ReachTEL, keeping in mind that the prestige of ReachTEL’s electorate polls have just taken a knock with the Liberals’ clear win in Darling Range. That’s all the comfort Georgina Downer can draw from its results, the latest of which gives Rebekha Sharkie her biggest lead yet in Mayo: 62-38 on two-party preferred, from primary votes (after exclusion of the 2.6% undecided) of 43.5% for Sharkie, 32.7% for Downer, 9.0% for the Greens and 8.2% for Labor.

In Longman, ReachTEL now records a 50-50 result after showing Liberal National Party candidate Trevor Ruthenberg leading Labor Section 44 victim Susan Lamb by 51-49. Primary votes after exclusion of 3.2% undecided are Labor 40.4%, LNP 36.1%, One Nation 15.2% and Greens 4.5%, so presumably One Nation’s respondent-allocated preferences are flowing solidly to the LNP. This poll was also conducted on Thursday, from a sample of 727. Full results from both polls are available here.

UPDATE: Those missing primary votes from Ipsos turn out to be 12% for the Greens, up one, and 6% for One Nation, also up one. The respondent-allocated two-party result goes the other way from the headline result, with Labor now leading 54-46, up from 53-47. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are down on his unusually strong result last time, with approval down one to 50% and disapproval up five to 44%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 40% and two to 53% (both leaders do unusually well on this metric from Ipsos). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 51-33, down from 52-32.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,220 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. It is illuminating to see Green supporters not back Bill Shortens call on not going ahead with these particular tax cuts, instead continue to criticise, it would seem policy matters little, rather personality politics is more important.

  4. “Did David Levonhelm’s discusting comments re Sarah Hanson Young receive any media coverage, and if not why not?”

    No. Because #killBill

  7. It’s incredibly hard to take Tingle (and most of the CPG) seriously, because she is your classic “race caller” journalist. Not the slightest bit interested in policy or looking under the hood. It’s all “x made a gaffe”, “y is in trouble with his backbench”, “z may challenge” etc etc. Just her own interpretation of ephemera. Who frickin’ cares. The polls are the polls. The rest is just a light show.

  11. @ Andrew Earlwood, 7:27PM:

    I think your efforts to flush Rex out will be in vain. He has friends

    Greens have friends? I thought they only had ‘comrades’!

  12. I see that Simon Benson of The Oz, last seen claiming that company tax cuts had more support than same-sex marriage, is under the impression that Labor won Longman in 2016 because it received 80% of One Nation preferences. He must be confusing One Nation with the Greens, a mistake rarely encountered outside of Poll Bludger comments threads. The actual figure was 56.5%.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/labor-takes-aim-as-the-perils-of-pauline-hanson-resurface/news-story/a93a2f4fb5fafe346e2495c104d515dd

  13. Thank you hungry jack.

    —

    Re the Sydney Metro, we’re building new lines, which is good, but why are we replacing perfectly good existing lines, the Bankstown line and the Eastern Part of what was to be the Chatswood to Parramatta line (opened in 2010)?

    What idiot made those decisions? Probably the same ones who decided we need to replace perfectly good and relatively new stadiums at a cost of billions. And the ones who decided to tear up the last 5 km of the Newcastle line so spivs could ‘develop’ the corridor, while taxpayers pay other spivs to build a light rail more or less parallel to the old heavy rail. What’s going on here?

    And where is the NSW Opposition?

    Rex– Federal Labor is in good hands. Maybe NSW Labor not so much. Why don’t you start urging NSW Labor to replace their leader? (whoever he is – forgotten).

  15. Last night Greensborough Growler raised an issue about Chris Uhlmann trying to flog a TV series to Netflix.

    He’s been successful. The show, Secret City based on the joint venture(s) between Uhlmann and Steve Lewis. I watch ed a couple of episodes last night and so far it’s pretty good. I seem to recall others on here giving it high praise when it played on FoxTel last year.

    If you have a Netflix account, check it out.

    WARNING: Uhlmann gets a cameo appearance in the first episode at a do to welcome the new US Ambassador. The camera pans around the audience and lingers just a bit too long on Uhlmann for my liking. Apart from that the show is pretty good though. Worth checking out.

  17. The Oz currently – top headline:

    ‘He’s a creep’: ugly Senate clash

    7:43PMGREG BROWN
    PoliticsNow: The Greens’ Sarah Hanson-Young has demanded an apology after a heated exchange with David Leyonhjelm.

  20. He must be confusing One Nation with the Greens, a mistake rarely encountered outside of Poll Bludger comments threads.

    *giggles*


  22. adrian says:
    Thursday, June 28, 2018 at 8:34 pm

    Did David Levonhelm’s discusting comments re Sarah Hanson Young receive any media coverage, and if not why not?

    The article I read said it was after Sarah Hanson Young interjected; all men rape women; if true it seems like it was a rerun of the poll bludger debate. If said, I think the real problem is the lack of understand why the injection was so provocative and quite frankly on about the same level as Levonhelm’s; both are unacceptable.

  24. foley is gawky … where do they find these people? might satisfy internal faction test but the public deserves a lot better

  26. Bill made a mistake. (perhaps)

    Bill announced a policy that perhaps hadn’t been completely ticked off, but you can bet your last 5c was damn well going to end up exactly where it has because that’s what Bill and Bowen and probably more than enough senior ministers to make it a lay down misere had decided the final policy was going to be.

    That’s his mistake (apparently). After hinting pretty damn strongly that this is where they were heading for a year or more, just coming out and saying, ‘yep, we weren’t fucking around when we were hinting this, we actually will do it’ is a mistake.

    It’s a farce. Trumble can’t even put an energy policy in place despite Labor desperately trying to agree to give the fuckwit a win just so the destructive bullshit (created entirely by Trumble and the rest of the pricks he forms government with) can finally come to an end. But Shorten announces a policy that his entire party will get behind 100% and he’s the one making mistakes.

    There’s no words in the English language to describe just how fucked our media is.

  27. pica, I’m with you. I think ‘Rex Douglas’ is a particularly evil form of Liberal. Like that Ian Hanke character. They will do anything and everything to destroy Labor, and if it includes being a Green Trojan horse, so as not to arouse too much suspicion as they go about their work of undermining Labor and their leadership, so be it.

  28. Good evening all,

    It will be interesting if, after a week of “Shorten goes rogue “, ” backbenchers revolt ” and ” leadership turmoil ” , labor policy on company tax cuts lands full on in support for Shorten and he pumps out a huge policy announcement at NSW conference on Sunday to rapturous applause.

    Stranger things have happened.

    The trouble with the MSM is they cannot concentrate on more than one thing at a time and have significant trouble seeing any more than three hours in advance.

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  29. Pica: ‘FWIW I reckon Rex is a Lib pretending to be a Green.’

    Rex can put you straight on that score by attacking the Liberals.

    However, I suspect you are right because no-one (including Rex) could point to one comment Rex has made on this blog attacking the Liberals. Not one!

  30. Well frednk, that what was Leyonhelm claimed. If you believe him then good on you.

    Most would require independent verification before believing anything he says on face value.

  31. Both Murdoch and the Guardian have mentioned issue of LNP/ Hanson deal to defer business tax cut legislation until after by-elections. ABC and Fairfax seem to have said nothing.

    Where are all those CPG journos who have hounded Labor all this week? Why aren’t they demanding answers from Turnbull and Hanson?

    Tax cuts for big businesses are on hold until after five upcoming by-elections because the government has not been able to get them through the Senate. The Coalition is currently four votes shy of passing the proposal through the Senate, blocked by One Nation and the Centre Alliance.

    Malcolm Turnbull has refused to say whether he has done a deal with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation for her support once the July 28 by-elections are over.

    One thing is for certain, the extended business tax cuts must be toxic news out in the electorate.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5802943872001

  32. “There’s no words in the English language to describe just how fucked our media is.”

    I take solace from the fact that they will all be likely out of a job within 5 years.

  33. ratsak,
    I reckon Bill made a quick calculation about how much sturm und drang there would be this week and then thought it was worth it to get it out of the way before his big speech at the Sydney Town Hall this Sunday.

  34. Our Lord’s discovery of the anti-Labor bias in the Bananas of course is because the Teddies are all IPA Research Fellows. Or was it that IPA Reseach Fellows are fucking muppets? Something like that anyway.

  35. Following the 7.30 Report, which we now normally do not watch along with other programmes (and at lunch today and a table of 12 – all guys and well heeled – precisely none said they now watch News or Current Affairs programmes or read Newspapers preferring on line sources for their information, so telling) I decided enough was enough and submitted a complaint to the ABC

    The commentary by the 2 ABC staff was what it was then that commentary supported by 3 Liberal Party politicians

    There was no interview with Shorten, no advice that he had refused to appear and no appearance of anyone from the Labor Party

    So I fired off a complaint

    Perhaps if the ABC receive enough complaints they may take notice and restore balance to their coverage

  36. Confessions.
    Greyhound treadmills have beenn used by trainers for decades. My mum used to train greyhounds for racing, when I was a kid. She refused to use a treadmill, saying the dogs needed the mental stimulation of a walk. . I used to walk 4 adult greyhounds 4 miles around the paddock every day. I love greyhounds and I want to see radical changes to racing. (Including $2000 registration fee for a breeding bitch). We kept all ours in retirement because we had room and frozen ‘roo meat and kilbble was cheap. We never abided live baiting either. GREYS ARE BEST HOUSE DOGS.

  37. “Perhaps if the ABC receive enough complaints they may take notice and restore balance to their coverage”

    The Bananas are considering your complaint.

  39. One last thing.

    I think for the health and wellbeing of all posters they should get firmly in their mind that, from now through the by elections and up until the general election, the MSM will impose challenges for Shorten and get more and more feral when he passes every test.

    This is just the way it will be. Buckle in for the ride. This is just the beginning. Be surprised at nothing that happens.

    On the positive side remember Shorten is a product of the labour movement who battled his way to the top job in the AWU and a very influential position in Victorian labor. Not a resume you would associate with a faint hearted competitor.

    Cheers.

  40. “There’s no words in the English language to describe just how fucked our media is.”

    There are but we couldn’t possibly say them aloud in such polite company as we have here.

  41. Don and others
    In my previous posts highlighting the cost of Liberal freeway promises and comparing to the cost of updating and greatly expanding the Paris Metro I was not trying to imply the Paris Metro was the best mass transit. My point was to show that we (Australian taxpayers) are getting royally screwed over the cost of new large infrastructure projects, especially the freeways. The Paris article post was to show that for the same price as we are spending now on freeways, other larger cities in high wage, high tax countries (and France is heavily unionised) are building entire mass transit systems for less money.

    And what is with the Liberal obsession over road versus rail? Why argue over spending $5 or $8 billion for much needed rail tunnels in Brisbane and Melbourne and then cheerfully sign off $30+ billion for freeway tunnels in Sydney and Melbourne? All these freeway megaprojects are becoming vehicles for enormous gouging of fees by law and finance firms. By switching from too much investment in urban freeways to a more balanced mix of road and rail investment, we could actually reduce transport capital spends by about 25%, still employ the same number of builders (the rail projects are more labour intensive), get a better environmental and social outcome, longer life infrastructure, and put some serious money back into health or education with the change.

    The new NZ Labor government is doing exactly that, and Labor here would do well to look at their transport policy. Conservative governments love to talk about “cutting waste” but they really just mean cutting services. This time Labor should do the waste cutting, but in freeways, an area of spending the big end of town loves.

    The NZ rail projects are being extended well into outer suburbs, so that some lower socio-economic fringe areas benefit. There would be areas of northern Melbourne and Western Sydney that would benefit greatly from rail links to the city. The Greens would have to go along with it, so it is politically and economically a sound move.

  44. “There are but we couldn’t possibly say them aloud in such polite company as we have here.”

    I reckon I could give it a fair crack, but our Lord Almighty might get smighty and I’ve taken off my ascension robes for the night already.

  45. Has Labor had a bad week?
    IMO, yes.
    Albanese deliberately took the wind out of Labor’s sails. After five years of excellent discipline there are signs that the Labor troops are getting restive.
    The Coalition had a significant win in the Senate. It reverses the usual frame of public discourse with Labor now having to stop a decrease in taxes. It is much easier for Turnbull et all to build a narrative around that.
    Their tails are up.
    Mr Shorten made a public policy announcement without the benefit of the team.
    This announcement has yet to be either varied or validated by Shadow Cabinet.
    Darling Range was a negative.
    So, there is a lot of negatives for Labor and a positive for the Government.
    Naturally, people like Hartcher have declared that if Labor loses even one seat on July 28 there WILL be a challenge against Shorten. 100% for certain.
    OTOH, the NEG is stalled. And there are still very serious attempts to get tax payers to subsidize the building of coal burning power stations.
    The Banking RC that Turnbull opposed many times continues to appal.
    Abbott, Joyce et al continue to make a public nuisance of themselves.
    Australia’s CO2 missions are at record levels.
    The Company Tax stuff is stalled.
    Labor managed to change Presidents without too much internal damage.
    On balance, a good week for the Government and a bad week for Labor.
    This is unusual because the Turnbull Government prefers not to be interrupted when it makes mistakes.
    Will it matter? In the free to air free for all, perhaps.
    In one-to-one social media and direct phone calls and door knocking, probably not so much.
    Shorten has something of a fix it job to do on getting some clear lines on the tax.
    So, IMO, nothing unrecoverable.

  46. “There are but we couldn’t possibly say them aloud in such polite company as we have heRE”

    I would need to trawl other, obscure, languages. THE curse words in English are too kind.

  47. socrates yes

    it going to take another massive investment in sydney – but will they still get it right

    reminds of old main computer systems patched up until finally written off

    trouble is cannot do that in rail

  48. Rexy is a socialist and that makes him alright by me, unlike those on here who are of the phony left, the identity warriors and the groupers.

  49. “I would need to trawl other, obscure, languages. THE curse words in English are too kind”

    I prefer Klingon.

  50. “On the positive side remember Shorten is a product of the labour movement who battled his way to the top job in the AWU and a very influential position in Victorian labor. Not a resume you would associate with a faint hearted competitor.”

    His climb to the top is also portrayed as….

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/why-mystery-dan-is-no-sure-thing-this-spring-20180627-p4zo1j.html

    There’s this too: modern Labor leaders struggle with the trick of reaching the top of their faction-ridden party without looking too much like a complex, compromised backroom schemer.

    Bill Shorten hasn’t managed to lose the whiff of the factions that is such a turn-off for voters, and nor has Andrews.

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