BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

Two polls last week landed right on the existing trend readings from BludgerTrack, which has accordingly recorded next to no movement.

Newspoll and Essential Research both had polls last week, and since we’re probably not due yet for a ReachTEL (the last was three weeks ago), we presumably have a lean week coming up. The latest BludgerTrack update accounts for the two aforesaid polls, and they have had the most minimal of impacts on the voting intention aggregates, on which the biggest move is a 0.6% drop for One Nation. The seat projections have the Coalition up one in Victoria and Western Australia, and down one in Queensland. A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll makes a modest addition to the established pattern of improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, with Bill Shorten flatlining. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

461 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  4. Business tax cuts unpopular in Mayo and Longman, say today’s Reachtel polls.

    The debate comes as a new Australia Institute-ReachTel poll shows low levels of support for company tax cuts in two of the by-election seats.

    In the South Australian seat of Mayo, only one in four voters back the cut, while in Queensland’s Longman one in three voters are in favour.

    Both electorates want the government to prioritise spending on services and infrastructure and reducing debt, before tax reductions.

    The poll also showed a tied race in Longman between Labor and the Liberals in two-party terms.

    And in Mayo, the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie had a clear 62-38 lead over the Liberals’ Georgina Downer.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/labor-targets-turnbull-over-company-tax/news-story/adbd4155d677546d504a8a41fb83e3a8

  5. I think it’s pretty obvious by now that a coalition govt is not going to do anything meaningful to abate our GHGEs. It will fall to Labor.

  6. GG
    glad your mum OK. In my case , had an infected hand from a spike, penicillin prescribed,,after 2 doses passed out 10 minutes, 4 doses out for an hour, big alarm bells. Result no more penicillin, ever!

  9. Mari @ #406 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 9:47 pm

    GG
    glad your mum OK. In my case , had an infected hand from a spike, penicillin prescribed,,after 2 doses passed out 10 minutes, 4 doses out for an hour, big alarm bells. Result no more penicillin, ever!

    Thank goodness it all worked out for you..

    My mum is basically allergic to to the 21st Century.

    She needs to read every label of every tin of product she consumes. Unfortunately, trusted brands can change their ingredients. We have had major episodes over this in recent times.

    For Rhombat, mum is totally allergic to penicillin and all the derivatives.

    What happened on Friday was she was cajoled in to a small intro of one of the usual suspects to address an issue to do with a urinary infection. This was a major mistake.

    However, co-incidentally she has a major heart fibrillation issue.

    My gut reaction is we could have lost her without her having the tummy upset.

  10. Jolyon:-

    “I will have a crack at the long interval training at Lake Monger, which is close to where I work. There is a 3.5km running track there marked off at 500m intervals.”

    Sounds like a perfect location for intervals. I think all those steps you have run will stand you in good stead, they are ‘in the bank’ so to speak. Now it’s time to convert that power into running strong over longer intervals.

    Given that you can run the metric mile in 6:30 minutes, I think you should aim to run the longer intervals at around 4:30 per km pace until you smash down the 25 minute parkrun barrier.

    Then perhaps go a little slower as you add volume to to the total distance run as intervals, because it seems your actual goal in the city to surf over 12km and you just want to hold 5min km with perhaps a little burst to break the hour barrier at the end.

  11. “Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (+1) ALP 53 (-1)”

    Yep. That LNP surge is definitely a thing …

  14. I wonder if IPSOS will have some supplemental questions? Something like
    “How good are the Government’s tax cuts?”

    Good,
    Very Good,
    Turnbull should be Emperor for life.

  15. Trump’s UK visit set to experience protests, including the floating of this giant blimp over parliament. Looks eerily like the real Donald.

  17. Andrew_Earlwood @ #410 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:04 pm

    Jolyon:-

    “I will have a crack at the long interval training at Lake Monger, which is close to where I work. There is a 3.5km running track there marked off at 500m intervals.”

    Sounds like a perfect location for intervals. I think all those steps you have run will stand you in good stead, they are ‘in the bank’ so to speak. Now it’s time to convert that power into running strong over longer intervals.

    Given that you can run the metric mile in 6:30 minutes, I think you should aim to run the longer intervals at around 4:30 pace until you smash down the 25 minute parkrun barrier.

    Then perhaps go a little slower as you add volume to to the total distance run as intervals, because it seems your actual goal in the city to surf over 12km and you just want to hold 5min km with perhaps a little burst to break the hour barrier at the end.

    I walked 18k yesterday and 10 today.

    #PBjocks

  18. “Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (+1) ALP 53 (-1)”

    I keep coming back to this thing of the polls apparently having 52/48 or 53/47 engraved in stone.

    Turnbull has to be worried that he’s facing a similar (but worse) situation that Julia Gillard was where people had already made up their minds a long way out from the election.

    Stuff has been happening. According to the press some of it is even positive for the Libs chances. 🙂

    But people dont seem to care and have written this sorry lot off??

  20. Is Fairfax still paying for Ipsos polls? No articles yet – but perhaps Crowe is still composing a bit of ‘spin’ on the numbers.

  21. OK

    I was putting off saying this but I am NOT optimistic about the next election. I cannot quite put my finger on why but I just do not see the massive seat gains needed.

    NSW seems to have gone off the boil (see William’s analysis) and while there are

    rhwombat @ #267 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 8:24 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1332 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 6:52 pm

    Penicillin is a major contributor to long term liveability in humans.

    Um. Wrong – and I say that as an Infectious Diseases physician. No antimicrobial save antimalarials, TB treatment and HIV has a significant effect on mortality rates. Penicillin is of use only in Streptococcal infections, and its introduction made only a minor difference in the mortality of Strep pneumoniae, the most prevalent of these infections. Puerpural sepsis and scarlet fever (which were the real causes of premature death) were overcome by hygiene measures, like hand washing, long before antimicrobials were introduced. Less than 0.1% of all antimicrobial doses given in humans (which is less than 0.1% of all antimicrobial agents given, since agricultural use is at least 3 orders of magnitude greater than human use) result in any change in clinical outcome. This is why antimicrobial resistance is now such a problem. I spend most of my professional life trying to stop the useless prescription of antimicrobials.

    RHW

    I bow to your expertise but that is a bloody big call!!!! The following are questions more than statements

    What about blood poisoning
    What about pneumonia
    What about antimicrobial used in cancer treatment or for the otherwise immune suppressed
    What about urinary tract infections
    Meningitis?

    You did OK them for Strep so I assume that also means rheumatic fever.

  23. Re Confessions @10:12PM: Ridicule can be a powerful weapon, especially against a narcissist like Trump. That parody shows total disrespect, which is what he deserves.

  25. Sitting here in misery. QLD lost the State of Origin series to the Blues. That sinking feeling, that you can not do anything about. Like …… like, election night and Labor gets flogged up – again.

    God (Dog), I hope the next is not fucked up.

    No wonder Labor supporters get testy when there is even the slightest reverse in opinion polls.

    But as a great said eons ago – the greatest are not those who celebrate the greatest victories but those that withstand the greatest disasters.

    But it is fucking hard work.

    That is all.

  26. GG

    I walked 18k yesterday and 10 today.

    #PBjocks

    Onya GG, but steady on or next thing you’ll find yourself jogging 🙂

  27. I’m someone whose body is riddled with arthritis and who can barely walk around the shops once a week. I used to be able to run. I used to be able to ride a bike. Now I can do neither. Ever again. 🙁

  28. Socrates @ #268 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 8:27 pm

    Frednk
    I agree there were concerns first raised about the risk of climate change back in the 70s by the late Stephen Schneider among others. But I think Hansen’s 1988 statement was the first major public statement that there was strong evidence it was happening.

    Socrates

    I was involved on the fringes at the very earliest discussion of Climate change. I can put a date to it – it was 1980 (sometime between April and September). Only a few people in my department (actually only one) was on top of the issue and discussed it with me. He said to me that it would be the next big issue after the CFCs and the ozone layer (which was my main work project).

    This highly perceptive comment has stayed with me but also another thing he said which perhaps explains why I am no especially vocal on Climate change issues – My friend/colleague told me that the forces pushing the Greenhouse gas debate were in fact the nuclear energy forces. My thinking was “with friends like that.”

    Thus while I do not in any way doubt the core of the climate change issue my niggling cynicism tells me that vested interests may well have encouraged a tad of exaggeration and fanned the flames of fear.

  29. Another thing to keep in mind about the polls, my reading of bludgertrack says Labor can get a majority with 49%

    Current bludgertrack has Labor on 85 seats with 52%, so if Labor drops 9 seats back to 76 they still have a majority (i think).

    Count down 9 seat from the projections and Labor just has to hold Lindsay, which is projected to be 46.9% at todays 52% national swing, which would be 49.9% if Labor dropped 3%

  30. DTT
    NSW seems to have gone off the boil

    Labor did their heavy lifting in NSW at the last election, winning several seats they did not expect to win, such as Lindsay and Macquarie, which is one of the pivotal reasons the Coalition got such a fright by nearly losing.

    A half decent campaign in NSW will see Labor bag Page, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks in a heartbeat.

  32. Steve777:

    Yep, Trump has debased the office of Potus so he can hardly complain if others refuse to show him any respect.

  33. Thus while I do not in any way doubt the core of the climate change issue my niggling cynicism tells me that vested interests may well have encouraged a tad of exaggeration and fanned the flames of fear.

    I think that these vested interests are flat out trying to tone down the reality.
    I keep thinking about a book Ben Elton wrote called Stark. Stood for Star Ark.
    The bloke who was paying the bills was called Sly Moorcock.
    Interesting parallels now.

  34. Labor only really needs to win 4 seats to have a shot at a minority government. That being said there is quite a few seats quite close to flipping for them + the bonus seat in ACT, + bonus in VIC plus Dunkley now being marginal lab.

    Leichhardt, Dutton’s seat in QLD, Forde, Flynn, the seat that Michelle Landry holds.

    + Gilmore, Robertson and either Banks or Reid in NSW, and two in WA – Stirling and Pearce.

  36. bug1 @ #320 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:33 pm

    Another thing to keep in mind about the polls, my reading of bludgertrack says Labor can get a majority with 49%

    Current bludgertrack has Labor on 85 seats with 52%, so if Labor drops 9 seats back to 76 they still have a majority (i think).

    Count down 9 seat from the projections and Labor just has to hold Lindsay, which is projected to be 46.9% at todays 52% national swing, which would be 49.9% if Labor dropped 3%

    I started a post then decided not to bother but accidently posted it so I may as well proceed

    I do not like the look of the NSW figures. While a gain of 3-5 seats is possible, not are certain and two unlikely.moreover Lindsay is a possible loss. William has it at one which could be a tad pessimistic but still.

    The Victorian figures are just way too optimistic. It is not really clear what the redistribution will do. Perhaps a gain of two would be a reasonable first guess with 4 an outside chance.

    WA is way too optimistic. It will fall back to a decent but not over the top swing. A gain of Swan seems probable but for the rest very doubtful

    We lose one in SA and Tassie is always a little unpredictable.

    Then there is Qld!!!. OK we should pick up Forde and Flynn and have a decent change in Capricornia ans Bonner and even Petrie. However we will probably lose Longman and Herbert.

    My prediction is a final seat count of 74 with Greens and Independents holding balance of power.

    Sorry to be a pessimist but hey why change now after all these years.

  38. Ides of March.not logged in @ #50 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:40 pm

    Labor only really needs to win 4 seats to have a shot at a minority government. That being said there is quite a few seats quite close to flipping for them + the bonus seat in ACT, + bonus in VIC plus Dunkley now being marginal lab.

    Leichhardt, Dutton’s seat in QLD + Gilmore, Robertson and either Banks or Reid in NSW, and two in WA – Stirling and Pearce.

    Much as I would love to win Dickson from the Uber Tuber I am not confident.

  39. Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 10:34 pm
    Sunday night cracker.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1010798000661131265

    Good video. Several of skippy’s cousins live down our way and have been depositing a fair amount of roo poo on our front lawn (sorry, short weeds that have survived the drought).

    Unfortunately they need some basic education on road etiquette.

  41. JimmyD @ #430 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:34 pm

    DTT
    NSW seems to have gone off the boil

    Labor did their heavy lifting in NSW at the last election, winning several seats they did not expect to win, such as Lindsay and Macquarie, which is one of the pivotal reasons the Coalition got such a fright by nearly losing.

    A half decent campaign in NSW will see Labor bag Page, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks in a heartbeat.

    Jimmy

    Yes I agree.Labor should pick up three in NSW and possibly Page too. i expect sold positive results in NSW but not a landslide.

    Victoria is already good for Labor so I am always cautious about predicting even stronger swings.

    I just do not think anyone should assume anything at all about Qld. Totally unpredictable.

  42. Actually allowing for the extra seat in the ACT labor should score 75, however since there will be 151 seats, to form government Labor will need 77 (or 76 with an independent as speaker

  44. “I used to be able to ride a bike. ”

    Hey C@t. Ever considered an electric bike.

    My mum was a few months ago, but her health, bone wise (osteoporosis) has deteriorated so that she reckons she cant afford to fall of a bike anymore and if you cant take a fall, cant ride.

    Was major thing for her as up till last year she was still doing over 100km a week and loved it. 🙁

    I have an old mountain bike i put one of these on:

    https://em3ev.com/shop/bafang-48v-750w-bbs02-kit/

    not exactly street legal here, but damn that bikes a good commuter on a hot day into the breeze. 🙂

    And you can get street legal kits.

    This guy is in Hong Kong and has a pretty good rep. Australian supplier of the same kit:

    https://www.emax-ebikes.com.au/

    Or lots of shops around now and a range of off the shelf bikes available. some prefer that, some convert a bike they are happy with already. Me, i like to have to pedal for the exercise, and dont have a particularly large battery. Still, i get a pretty easy 80-90km riding normally out of 1 charge.

    If i hoon it (30-40km / hr) 20-40km.

    Just puttin it out there. 🙂

  45. Sohar @ #437 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:47 pm

    Great stuff, GG.
    “I walked 18k yesterday and 10 today.”

    citizen @ #439 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:50 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 10:34 pm
    Sunday night cracker.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1010798000661131265

    Good video. Several of skippy’s cousins live down our way and have been depositing a fair amount of roo poo on our front lawn (sorry, short weeds that have survived the drought).

    Unfortunately they need some basic education on road etiquette.

    If you want to set up a “Marsupial get your shit together ” friendship group, then my back decking would be a very good start for the possums!

  46. Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 10:14 pm
    Andrew_Earlwood @ #410 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:04 pm

    Jolyon:-

    “I will have a crack at the long interval training at Lake Monger, which is close to where I work. There is a 3.5km running track there marked off at 500m intervals.”

    Sounds like a perfect location for intervals. I think all those steps you have run will stand you in good stead, they are ‘in the bank’ so to speak. Now it’s time to convert that power into running strong over longer intervals.

    Given that you can run the metric mile in 6:30 minutes, I think you should aim to run the longer intervals at around 4:30 pace until you smash down the 25 minute parkrun barrier.

    Then perhaps go a little slower as you add volume to to the total distance run as intervals, because it seems your actual goal in the city to surf over 12km and you just want to hold 5min km with perhaps a little burst to break the hour barrier at the end.

    I walked 18k yesterday and 10 today.

    Very impressive GG. I walk every day but nothing like that.
    Has this exercise regime all happened since you had your operation?

  47. Darn @ #422 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 11:05 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 10:14 pm
    Andrew_Earlwood @ #410 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 10:04 pm

    Jolyon:-

    “I will have a crack at the long interval training at Lake Monger, which is close to where I work. There is a 3.5km running track there marked off at 500m intervals.”

    Sounds like a perfect location for intervals. I think all those steps you have run will stand you in good stead, they are ‘in the bank’ so to speak. Now it’s time to convert that power into running strong over longer intervals.

    Given that you can run the metric mile in 6:30 minutes, I think you should aim to run the longer intervals at around 4:30 pace until you smash down the 25 minute parkrun barrier.

    Then perhaps go a little slower as you add volume to to the total distance run as intervals, because it seems your actual goal in the city to surf over 12km and you just want to hold 5min km with perhaps a little burst to break the hour barrier at the end.

    I walked 18k yesterday and 10 today.

    Very impressive GG. I walk every day but nothing like that.
    Has this exercise regime all happened since you had your operation?

    Pretty much.

    Today is actually the 2 year annivesary of the operation.

    I have been in major walking overdrive for the last month or so.

    It works for me.

  48. As the Poms score at an AFL rate

    Howard lost the 2PP at his first election as pm

    From there, in my view anyway, events conspired to favour “those bloody Tories” which I know from conversations with Bob Hawke was his view as well

    So 7/11 and then “kids overboard” impacted allowing the race card to be played – and like it or not the race card wins elections in Australia

    Then there was the Mining Boom Phase 1 from 2004 so revenue to splurge

    But at the end of 2007, despite the offer of yet more tax cuts the mantra of “interest rates will always be lower under a Liberal government” was under pressure because the largess of pork barrelling introduced inflation and increasing interest rates – to an Australia then very heavily mortgaged

    Howard survived by rat cunning – and I assert that this opinion of him was widely held because of the comments of Party President Stone and that the ALP was in government in every other jurisdiction

    Plus there was the Latham experiment

    So Howard was rat cunning and lucky

    And it all finally caught up with him

    How he ever came to pm after having been the worst treasurer the Nation has ever endured was always beyond me

    In regards the position Labor finds itself in now the focus is on retaining all seats currently held plus the nominal seat added

    Then win 3/4 other seats where the best chances are in WA and Queensland because of the Coalition currently holding the greater majority of seats in those States – and both those States have Labor governments recently elected so those governments have to retain public acceptance

    Those in WA and Queensland may be able to give opinion of sentiment trend

    Even across the ditch may help with perceptions

    Given polls on a National basis show a 2/3 per cent swing to Labor and the government sits on a One seat majority – those polls remaining consistent other seats in other States may well fall as well

    But the message of fairness must maintain – which I describe as a fair and equitable balance between Capital and labour as do both Shorten and Albanese – and regulation to protect that balance

    The business lobby groups will say what you would expect them to say – Labor hates us but my understanding is that at the same time they are hiring Labor affiliated operatives expecting a change of government and a need to work with a Labor administration which they will

    So they are shouting at the top of their lungs but making provisions

    The media will do what media do – and we trust that in the interests of the restoration of balance and opportunity Murdoch has had his day also because of his support for Trump and the view Australians have of Trump

    So Murdoch’s credibility goes down with Trump assisted by Trump coming to Australia and Murdoch being his sponsor

  50. This poll has Labor on 85 with a 16 seat gain nationally. Figures include a gain of 8 in Qld.

    I think conservative voters giving Pauline a protest vote have already returned to L/NP so preferences from PHON should flow stronger to Labor than previously. Good news for Labor if that’s the case.

    Then along comes that rat Clive. He can promise the world despite what he has done with the nickel company and its contractors and employees. His previous political track record was poor. All about getting a few Senate seats and benefits for the Carmichael mining area. Which voters will he attract in the lower house and where will the preferences go? Hopefully, the last of Paulines conservatives and a few rural L/NPs but who knows?

    Labor will have to work hard in Qld. From all reports, the State govt (ALP) is honouring its election promises and is still popular. Longman may show what lies ahead.

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