BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

Two polls last week landed right on the existing trend readings from BludgerTrack, which has accordingly recorded next to no movement.

Newspoll and Essential Research both had polls last week, and since we’re probably not due yet for a ReachTEL (the last was three weeks ago), we presumably have a lean week coming up. The latest BludgerTrack update accounts for the two aforesaid polls, and they have had the most minimal of impacts on the voting intention aggregates, on which the biggest move is a 0.6% drop for One Nation. The seat projections have the Coalition up one in Victoria and Western Australia, and down one in Queensland. A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll makes a modest addition to the established pattern of improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, with Bill Shorten flatlining. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

461 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. With an average primary on Btrack of 36.7% the glorious victory of socialism under Bill Shorten is assured Golly. I forgot.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. We only have Sunday scraps today.

    John Silvester has written a superb article on the life of Lex Lasry. Take the time to read it.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/hard-driving-lex-lasry-will-still-beat-the-drums-for-justice-20180620-p4zmjp.html
    The Australian reports that the government has brought a dying asylum seeker from Nauru to Brisbane for palliative care — buckling in the face of growing outrage. The headline uses the word “buckles”.
    https://outline.com/NLFtXk
    The operator of the national broadband network could be fined for lengthy repair times and missed appointments under a Labor proposal to establish a wholesale service guarantee.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/24/nbn-co-faces-fines-for-horror-customer-service-under-labor-plan
    The US is becoming an even more divided country.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/sarah-sanders-asked-to-leave-restaurant-for-her-work-with-us-president-donald-trump-20180624-p4zncx.html
    Meanwhile attorneys for Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign chair, want a judge to bar any mention of Manafort’s connections to the president at his trial in Virginia.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jun/23/paul-manafort-lawyers-donald-trump-banned-virginia-trial
    Eva Cox laments that the new childcare package is the final nail in the community service coffin.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/23/the-new-childcare-package-is-the-final-nail-in-the-community-service-coffin
    The Royal Commission established to look into misconduct by the banks has failed, particularly with the small business sector, writes Dr Evan Jones.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-royal-commission-falls-from-grace,11625
    The Turnbull government’s signature energy plan fails to anticipate sudden exits of ailing coal-fired power plants and could lock in targets for a decade – two key design flaws that incline the ACT government to block it, Shane Rattenbury, the territory’s energy minister said.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/climate-change/inherent-flaw-act-threatens-to-block-energy-plan-20180622-p4zn6i.html
    Australia’s $2 billion toy market is going through a seismic shift as the nation’s largest specialty toy chain shuts up shop.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/state-of-play-industry-in-flux-as-toys-r-us-shuts-down-20180622-p4zn21.html
    David Crowe with a Sunday leadershit special.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/alp-internal-brawl-over-promotion-of-women-to-key-frontbench-spot-20180623-p4znbg.html
    Claire Kimball rips the guts out of Telstra’s announcement.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-media-release-that-reveals-so-much-about-telstra-20180622-p4zn5a.html
    This bishop asks, “How can America call itself a Christian country if it treats children like this?”
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/23/michael-curry-how-can-america-call-itself-a-christian-country-if-it-treats-children-like-this
    Tim Lane writes about the AFL’s annus horribilus. He’s right!
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/the-afl-s-annus-horribilus-20180622-p4zn6z.html
    We have a long way to go. Still.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-looks-to-reforms-in-response-to-child-sex-abuse-royal-commission-20180622-p4zn2r.html
    Looks like Johnny Depp is rooted.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/2018/06/23/johnny-depp-lost-fortune/

    Cartoon Corner

    Some good perspective from Peter Broelman.

    Paul Zanetti with the naked Shark.

    Mark Knight laments the amount of plastic in the sea.

    From the US. So true.

    Mark David and aspiration.

    A few in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-june-24-2018-20180623-h11ruv.html

  3. And the average Btrack for the Libs is what without the Nats ?Are the glorious days of unfettered capitalism being reconsidered ? Perhaps ask the planet, or the poor , or the homeless, or the stateless. The voters are happy for the question to be put. Bullshit burns better when its dry.

  4. ‘It’s because you’re terrible’: Internet ridicules Sarah Sanders for sniveling about restaurant ejection

    White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders was refused service at a restaurant three hours outside of Washington, DC, setting of a wave of internet mockery.

    “First mothers are forcibly separated from their children and now Sarah is separated from her food for a few moments,” comedian Ricky Gervais tweeted. “The trauma caused in the second case is definitely worse.”

    “Sarah Sanders defends separating thousands of immigrant kids from their parents, cutting SNAP food assistance for millions of poor people, allowing bakers to discriminate against LGBT people, and telling a black reporter to “stop talking,” but she’s the polite, respectful victim,” said CNN political commentator Keith Boykin.

    “You defended businesses turning away gays. How’s it feel now, you hypocrite?” AmericaBlog editor John Aravosis asked. “Womp womp.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/youre-terrible-internet-ridicules-sarah-sanders-sniveling-restaurant-ejection/

  5. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Wild times in Africa this weekend.

    The Zimbabwean President had a bomb explode near him at a rally and the Reformist Ethiopian President had a grenade thrown at him at a rally! He was behind bomb-proof glass luckily.

  6. Liberal Nazi Hysteria Is Helping Trump Bigly

    By John R. Schindler • 06/22/18 11:23am

    This was the week that President Donald Trump finally went too far. Our transgressor-in-chief overdid it, as was bound to happen eventually. His hardline on immigration, which did so much to get him elected two years ago, galvanizing voters while horrifying elites, blew up in the president’s face when images went public of migrant children separated from their parents by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. This was part of Trump’s promised “get tough” approach to enforcing our southern border, but separating more than 2,000 children from their parents turned out to be more than many Republicans bargained for.

    Images of kids in cages went viral with celerity, egged on by nonstop media coverage. Some of that coverage bordered on the hysterical, and Trump seems to finally pushed too far. But there’s every reason to think that, yet again, the seasoned media-manipulator in the Oval Office manufactured a crisis to distract journalists from things Trump would rather not see on the front pages.

    MORE : http://observer.com/2018/06/talia-lavin-falsely-claiming-justin-gaertner-nazi-helps-trump/

  7. Carole Cadwalladr‏Verified account @carolecadwalla

    Hurrah! The US media has now shown up to cover the unfolding Brexit-Russia scandal & its uncanny similarities to the Trump-Russia scandal. Because these are not two scandals, they are the same scandal. With one factor common to both: nigel_farage

    Britain Has a Russia Collusion Scandal Now. It Looks Exactly Like Trump’s.

    Months before the United States narrowly elected Trump, the United Kingdom narrowly elected to withdraw from the European Union. Both votes advanced Russian foreign policy goals — in the latter case, by splitting up the Western alliance. (Trump has energetically pursued this strategy, too.) Russia employed many of the same tools to influence both elections. It deployed social-media bots and trolls to spread its message. It recruited friendly candidates who gave voice to previously marginal Russophile positions. And, as the newly surfaced evidence suggests, it indirectly financed the campaign.

    MORE : http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/06/britains-russia-collusion-scandal-looks-just-like-trumps.html?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=s3&utm_campaign=sharebutton-b

  8. Good Morning

    Our media is pathetic. First story after the Africa news is division in Labor due to Albo’s speech.

    They use the hook of Albo stating the obvious.

    “Despite our differences on Corporate Tax cuts we have to work with businesses large and small.”

    This after playing the initial comment that with division we succeed at nothing.

    They played the Chris Pyne comments and then those of the Queen of division Senator Hanson.
    So now they have Labor division as their story before the by elections

    I could not believe my ears.
    Talk about a propaganda piece.

    Edit: Sorry this was on ABC news radio and apparently working with business is code for an implied support for corporate tax cuts. From that lefty Albo!!!!!

  9. Sorry this was on ABC news radio and apparently working with business is code for an implied support for corporate tax cuts. From that lefty Albo!!!!!

    This despite the fact he said that Labor and ‘Business” don’t have to agree on tax.

  10. When someone as sensible as meher baba has absorbed part of the Kill Bill theme, it will be a bloody battle for the next election with a leader as nasty as MT and his ruthless lieutenants. (No offence meant, mb.)

  11. It’s interesting that the cadre of British society who helped facilitate the Russian fascist project this century, are the same Mitfordesque Upper Crust Tories who tried to facilitate Hitler’s rise and the rise of fascism in the UK in the 1930s.

    Nigel Farage and his claque, and the useful idiots that they use/used, such as our own Julian Assange and Geoffrey Robertson, who aided and abetted them in order to be graced with their favour in the salons of Surrey and Windsor, Knightsbridge and Chelsea, all stand condemned for their actions.

    Those type of people were a reprehensible cancer on society then, and are now, with their aim to concentrate wealth and power in their UKIP-Tory hands and the hands of Authoritarian Mercantilist Kleptocrats, such as Putin, for whom the quid pro quo is, you scratch our backs and help wind back this inconvenient social democracy thing using the tools of the 21st century internet trade, and we’ll scratch yours by being the Trojan Horse to advance your hegemonic fever dreams around the world. Just so long as our reward is that you provide us with a cut of the action and to continue to live life in the manner to which we believe we are owed in the UK as a result of the Divine Right of Kings. Or, in the US, where Trump is behaving as if he were King of America.

    God that photo of May kissing the ring of William Windsor yesterday pissed me off! 😀

  12. Assassination attempt on African leader story pushed sideways on ABC Breakfast News to make way for important news from WA state by election result….ABC is alive with sound of Tory victory,!
    Oh, and they’re feeding the dumbarse Albo made up story with a ticker running on a loop

  13. Albo delivered a fine Whitlam Oration. He was entitled to paint the big picture for his Party. He did just that. The media covered it as Albo “positioning”. He was. He was staying above the fray and spelling out his principles.
    It what politicians do. I can remember ,vividly, Malcolm Fraser giving a speech when he was a Shadow Minister to Billy Snedden. He got the same “ leadership” coverage, and it pleased him.
    Keating, Costello, Howard etc did it. Look at my vision, my principles and watch the inevitable in the.
    Media.
    Nothing new – from any journo from any organisation including the ABC. Move on.

  14. lizzie @ #16 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 8:06 am

    When someone as sensible as meher baba has absorbed part of the Kill Bill theme, it will be a bloody battle for the next election with a leader as nasty as MT and his ruthless lieutenants. (No offence meant, mb.)

    And don’t forget the fleas in our ear here, ESJ and Rex Douglas, constantly seeking to sow the seeds of hatred against Bill Shorten.

  15. Where’s the Libspill excitement in the MSM?

    Brad Hearne‏ @alterbrad · 15h15 hours ago

    There are reports surfacing that Chief Security Potato Peter Dutton has been low key telling colleagues he doesn’t feel he can win his seat if Turnbull leads the LNP to the next election #auspol #libspill

  16. Greetings. Early morning sun just above the tree line thawing a light frost.

    Thanks BK, for the ‘scraps’.

    It’s getting too depressing. In the piece by Eva Cox on the undoing of childcare services, she highlights the increasing application of social services not to meet social needs but to reflect GDP as the only endpoint of merit and reduce citizens to customers of government.

    The loss of community based care is just one example of the changes that have redefined us from citizens to customers of governments. So many changes to social security and community services have reduced us to using contracted out and commercialised services, one government controlled or delivered.

    Customer-consumer roles are explicitly distrust based, as we are told we are responsible for getting “the best deal”. Could these changes be part drivers of the increasing devaluing of current political models of democracy as it seems to have lost its social equity function? These are urgent questions we need to address, as well as fix children’s services.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/23/the-new-childcare-package-is-the-final-nail-in-the-community-service-coffin

    (Ms Crabb chairing Insiders still, with PvO, Tingle and Riley.)

  17. Hey Edwina…. Turnbull is on a winner…. the state by-election in WA is sure indication that he will trash the ALP and the hated Shorten…. Where is the announcement of the Federal election?….. Nowhere to be seen?….. Why?…… Not so sure Turnbull is going to win?…. Yep, of course, it’s 52% ALP!
    🙂

  18. Mundo

    Pessimistic? Maybe. We are all aware of the vindictive lies from the conservative side, backed up by some of the MSM, and need to brace ourselves, that’s all. The Leader sets the tone, and MT can be vicious.

  19. adrian

    When they’re not reporting in the political ‘space’ the ABC is valuable. For example, ‘Blueprint for Living’ has been discussing the traces of ‘country’ still to be found in capital cities.

  20. “Is being a socialist in your fifties a sign of immaturity? Discuss.”

    …and, for psyclaw’s sake, please remember to include citations.

  21. C@tmomma @ #23 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 5:11 am

    lizzie @ #16 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 8:06 am

    When someone as sensible as meher baba has absorbed part of the Kill Bill theme, it will be a bloody battle for the next election with a leader as nasty as MT and his ruthless lieutenants. (No offence meant, mb.)

    And don’t forget the fleas in our ear here, ESJ and Rex Douglas, constantly seeking to sow the seeds of hatred against Bill Shorten.

    You actual think they have an impact on attitudes?

    They can’t even begin to form a rational argument!

  22. Adrian

    There is much to like about ABC news. Yes this piece was pure propaganda. It stuck out to me because usually News Radio doesn’t do that.

  23. Morning all.

    A relatively sane Insiders panel this morning.

    Samuel ClarkVerified account@sclark_melbs
    28m28 minutes ago
    Little more than an hour until @InsidersABC on your ABC. @latingle @Riley7News and @vanOnselenP join @annabelcrabb to chew the fat on everything #auspol. Our guest is the Finance Minister @MathiasCormann. 9am

  24. “Is being a socialist in your fifties a sign of immaturity? Discuss.”

    Not if you were an anarchist in your 20s. 😉

  25. Morning all. Thanks BK. On defence spending, the CONservatives are not even pretending it is about national security any more. The $35 billion decision on where to build the Marginals Class frigates has been delayed again by WA cabinet members. Are they setting up another Collins style construction mess? We should name the leed ship HMAS Pork Barrel, with each other ship named after a marginal government seat.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-24/navy-warship-announcement-delayed/9902708

  26. zoomster @ #34 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 5:28 am

    “Is being a socialist in your fifties a sign of immaturity? Discuss.”

    …and, for psyclaw’s sake, please remember to include citations.

    I would argue the opposite point.

    Being a socialist in your fifties is a sign of maturity.

    You have recognised the flaws in Communism and realise that a balance between the Social and Capital elements is required to create a fair and functioning Society.

    Going across to the Dark Side is a sign of giving up and allowing perceived self interest to take over.

    🙂

  27. The Cormannator. Oh goody gumdrops. A chance to hear the government’s talking points played on an endless loop.

  28. Media MattersVerified account@mmfa
    Fox & Friends host: “These aren’t our kids. Show them compassion, but it’s not like he is doing this to the people of Idaho or Texas”

    http://mm4a.org/ZHh

    Human rights are only for white American citizens.

  29. lizzie @ #25 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 5:12 am

    Where’s the Libspill excitement in the MSM?

    Brad Hearne‏ @alterbrad · 15h15 hours ago

    There are reports surfacing that Chief Security Potato Peter Dutton has been low key telling colleagues he doesn’t feel he can win his seat if Turnbull leads the LNP to the next election #auspol #libspill

    That is a dream scenario;

    The Potato going out with a Howard!!!!! 🙂

  30. As I said Socialism is about finding a balance.

    Grog has a look at an imbalance that has emerged and how it may be addressed.

    I think we are fortunate to have someone like Sally McManus at the forefront of this battle.

    There is power in a Union! 🙂

    The time is ripe for a more activist approach to industrial relations

    https://youtu.be/DwbzxemJZIc

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jun/24/the-time-is-ripe-for-a-more-activist-approach-to-industrial-relations

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