BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

Two polls last week landed right on the existing trend readings from BludgerTrack, which has accordingly recorded next to no movement.

Newspoll and Essential Research both had polls last week, and since we’re probably not due yet for a ReachTEL (the last was three weeks ago), we presumably have a lean week coming up. The latest BludgerTrack update accounts for the two aforesaid polls, and they have had the most minimal of impacts on the voting intention aggregates, on which the biggest move is a 0.6% drop for One Nation. The seat projections have the Coalition up one in Victoria and Western Australia, and down one in Queensland. A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll makes a modest addition to the established pattern of improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, with Bill Shorten flatlining. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

461 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  3. There is absolute, incontrovertible truth, statistics and cited papers even! that links the benefits to workers of Unions in their society.

  4. From the previous thread…

    Puffytmd @ #3266 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 12:59 am

    Edwina,
    You do know that calling for people to be banned on this blog is one of the fastest ways to get yourself banned?

    Other than suggesting pineapple on pizzza. Or was that another place?

    It would be better if bludgers simply showed respect for Williams call for more civility in discussion and the end to bullying and personal attacks.

    William provides a open forum for this community and deserves to be respected.

  6. Big fat lie first sentence – prioritising working families, bullshit, prioritising the top earners – went through to the keeper.

  8. Rex

    Be fair. At worst Labar is not calling it out. That is walking by the standard and thus accepting it.

    Labor is not running the racist dog whistling campaign.

  9. C@tmomma @ #53 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 6:16 am

    There is absolute, incontrovertible truth, statistics and cited papers even! that links the benefits to workers of Unions in their society.

    As Grog says, while business recognise that wage growth is good for them, none of them actually want to do it!

  11. BK says: Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 9:18 am

    Annabel is trying her hardest to get through Cormann’s stone wall.

    *****************************************************

    It must be like trying to talk to a pre-programmed robot …….

  12. The question in today’s world is the legacy we are leaving our children and our Grandchildren – and the next generations?

    Are we leaving a Nation and a World which is sustainable?

    Are we building foundations with vision?

    Foundations they can build on?

    Are we saying the message we leave is “have a go” at whatever it is you wish to achieve in life because the rewards of that ambition and endeavour will serve you well?

    You will not only be rewarded because of the integrity you will carry with you but you will be rewarded financially – and not just that the value of the home you may be able to afford will increase and make you “rich” but you will be the beneficiary of a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work

    That, if you are industrious and save you will enjoy a meaningful return on those funds also, not a measly 2% which does not even equal inflation so is no incentive

    That there is Balance in society with safety nets for those disadvantaged by their circumstances such as those who lost employment because they were employed in the car manufacture business and associated businesses or worked for the NAB (and other banks) or Telstra or a Retailer or Media Company which has collapsed or savagely reduced their work force

    That you pay your fair share of tax because you wish to live in a certain type of society where safety nets are in place – including non discretionary services as basic as being able to cook a meal or keep your home warm in the depths of winter – and if you choose to stay at home to raise your children you have some respite which is not reimbursed as to cost (and available) exclusively because you are in employment

    These are just some start points – and you could include every Budget expense including medical research and availability to defence including of your personal space

    So once you get a little older it is not Capitalism or Socialism (and they co exist anyway), not “left” or “right” whatever they are but outcomes and that we are contributing to the next generations by the foundations we are setting for society going forward

    Not just that they are the beneficiaries in our Will and that they benefit because the home we bought for $200,000- in 1980 is now worth $3 Million

    Capitalism and “Right” wing to me is being satisfied at leaving that home and its monetary value to your next generations – and I, for one, want to leave far more than that

    In the Australia of today that is a challenge – unfortunately

    In 50 or 100 years time our generation will not be looked on favourably unless we pause now and look forward thru the prism of society and not just tax cuts giving incentive to “aspirationals” at expense to society including educational opportunity and the safety nets that maintain cohesion (and do not fester revolution including by individuals distanced from society)

  13. I will give Crabbe this. She is challenging Corman’s narrative.

    As one who criticises the ABC I feel I have to point this out.

  14. guytaur @ #58 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 9:19 am

    Rex

    Be fair. At worst Labar is not calling it out. That is walking by the standard and thus accepting it.

    Labor is not running the racist dog whistling campaign.

    They are on a unity ticket re AS policy. They’ve stated that many times. You need to acknowledge that.

  16. Cormann constantly repeats that “Shorten is high-taxing”. He’s preparing his lines for election and has just accused Annabel of supporting Shorten.

  19. Using proportionate taxes to argue doesn’t really prove anything.

    Cormann “Bill Shorten’s class warfare”
    Annabel interrupts “OK, we’re running out of time”.

  21. Rex Douglas @ #64 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 6:23 am

    guytaur @ #58 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 9:19 am

    Rex

    Be fair. At worst Labar is not calling it out. That is walking by the standard and thus accepting it.

    Labor is not running the racist dog whistling campaign.

    They are on a unity ticket re AS policy. They’ve stated that many times. You need to acknowledge that.

    There is a big difference between the structure of a policy and how it is implemented.

    But nuance is a bit of a challenge for you, isn’t it!!! 🙂

  31. Confessions

    I thought Crabbe’s whole interview was excellent. If all interviews of government ministers were like that I would have no complaints.

    Its how I see interviews should be conducted.

    No gotcha’s just good questions and letting the Minister answer but not letting him bulldoze with talking points

  34. Rather than this tawdry tax cut war between Liberal and Labor, they should be doing things like fully subsidising winter power bills of full aged pensioners.

  36. PvO is right. Albo is creating some differentiation from Shorten before the byelections in preparation for a possible challenge.

    I think it’s too late for a challenge but anythings possible…

  37. The people of Mayo know that Downer has been parachuted in….is not a local…and it’s all about her and the Liberals, not them. I hope Sharkie romps in.

  38. The people of Mayo know that Downer has been parachuted in….is not a local…and it’s all about her and the Liberals, not them. I hope Sharkie romps in.
    __
    You’re not the only one!

  39. Rex Douglas @ #85 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 6:48 am

    PvO is right. Albo is creating some differentiation from Shorten before the byelections in preparation for a possible challenge.

    I think it’s too late for a challenge but anythings possible…

    Where did Albo differentiate from Labor’s current position?

  44. https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/06/2018/1528263538/calling-time-tax-cuts

    At a time of mass cynicism about gutless, weathervane politicians who believe nothing and are looking out for their own interests, we should try to pause and acknowledge genuine policy bravery when it comes along. By opposing the whole pre-election budget package of income tax cuts proposed by the government, including the first stage offering low- and middle-income earners $10 a week, the Greens’ leader Richard Di Natale is trying to engage voters in a very different kind of conversation. He is trying to move beyond self-interested, hip-pocket politics, towards a discussion about what kind of country we want to be.
    :::::::
    It’s a big deal to call “time out” on decades of income tax cuts, which got underway in earnest in the late 1970s and early 1980s…….
    :::::
    We have had years of downward envy and victim-blaming of welfare recipients, glossed over with hilarious poverty porn…..
    ::::::::
    As The Australia Institute’s chief economist Richard Denniss argues in this fantastic excerpt from his current Quarterly Essay, Dead Right, we do not have to tolerate endlessly rising inequality in this country, but actually have a choice: “Australia isn’t poor; it is rich beyond the imagining of anyone living in the 1970s or 80s. But so much of that new wealth has been vacuumed up by a few, and so little of that new wealth has been paid in tax, that the public has been convinced that ours is a country struggling to pay its bills.”
    :::::::
    The Greens are unambiguously for a solid increase in Newstart of $75 a week (not per fortnight, as I wrote erroneously here last month), and for an increase in the minimum wage. It may or may not be clever politics for the Greens to argue against a low- and middle-income tax cut, and Richard Di Natale may or may not succeed, but at least he’s trying.

  46. Rex, there are members of the ALP,Greens and others here who have a different view than their leaders and the direction their respective parties take, but it doesn’t mean they want to challenge them. It’s called debate. The media are playing games.

  47. Over more than 100 years, Labor has won from Opposition just four times – under Scullin in 1929, Whitlam in 1972, Hawke in 1983 and Rudd in 2007.

    All exceptional leaders in their own way.

    The shortest gap was between Whitlam and Hawke, 11 years. It is nearly 11 years since Kevin 07.

    Make of that what you will.

  48. guytaur says:
    Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 9:22 am
    I will give Crabbe this. She is challenging Corman’s narrative.

    As one who criticises the ABC I feel I have to point this out.

    Much to my surprise Annabel has done a very good job standing in for Barry I would have to say. She presents well, is across all the topics on the agenda and the show runs very smoothly. Can’t ask much more than that.

  49. “Where did Albo differentiate from Labor’s current position?”

    Fuck me dead. The Liberals and Nationals have been tearing themselves apart on a range of substantial issues since 2015, including as late as this week over NEG, and yet this weak attempt to dress up an orthodox labor speech – one that could have easily been written and delivered by Shorten himself – as some type of division and a prelude to a leadshit challenge is pathetic.

    And yet. Instead of pointing out how desperate the Liberals are, the CPG fucking run with it! Truly oxygen thieves.

  50. The Toorak Toff says:
    Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 9:57 am
    Over more than 100 years, Labor has won from Opposition just four times – under Scullin in 1929, Whitlam in 1972, Hawke in 1983 and Rudd in 2007.

    All exceptional leaders in their own way.

    The shortest gap was between Whitlam and Hawke, 11 years. It is nearly 11 years since Kevin 07.

    Make of that what you will.

    Shorten is about to make that five.

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