Newspoll and Essential Research both had polls last week, and since we’re probably not due yet for a ReachTEL (the last was three weeks ago), we presumably have a lean week coming up. The latest BludgerTrack update accounts for the two aforesaid polls, and they have had the most minimal of impacts on the voting intention aggregates, on which the biggest move is a 0.6% drop for One Nation. The seat projections have the Coalition up one in Victoria and Western Australia, and down one in Queensland. A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll makes a modest addition to the established pattern of improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, with Bill Shorten flatlining. Full results through the link below.
dave,
The same can be said for any Windows update, really. 😉
From memory, 1803 went pretty smoothly for me, except my microphone was disabled by a privacy setting; that was “fun” to figure out. (Everything looked fine in Skype, Logitech Gaming Software etc.)
#ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of #Mayo 2 Party Preferred: CA 62 (+4 since 5 June) LIB 38 (-4) #auspol
#ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of #Mayo Primary Votes: CA 43.5 LIB 32.7 GRN 9.0 ALP 8.2 Other 4.1 Undecided 2.6 #auspol
dave:
Thanks for the heads up.
#ReachTEL Poll (17 May 2018) Federal Seat of Hinkler 2 Party Preferred: LNP 54 (-4.4 since election) ALP 46 (+4.4) #auspol
#ReachTEL Poll (17 May 2018) Federal Seat of Hinkler Primary Votes: LNP 40.8 ALP 27.3 ON 14.3 GRN 4.2 FF 1.7 Other 6.9 Undecided 4.7 #auspol
rhwombat @ #289 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 4:18 pm
I think he took a break because of a severe medical issue with one of his kids.
Aren’t they all prize homes*? (Second only to Hope Island.) 😉
*
Boysyourtown, Endeavour etc. raffle prizes.BiGD: “So, my impression of scanning meher baba’s posts today. They seem to be against a progressive system of taxation and more in favour of a user pay system. You’re not David Leyonhjelm are you?”
I haven’t followed Leyonhjelm’s views all that closely, but I was under the impression that he was for getting rid of gun control, getting rid of any measures to address carbon emissions, and getting rid of the social safety net. I don’t share any of these views, so I think I can’t be him.
I think I’ve made my political position pretty clear on this blog over the years, but I’ll do it again just for you.
I’m a committed environmentalist. I love capitalism and am very dubious about socialism: that is, I’m strongly in favour of an effectively-regulated free market economy with well-targeted government intervention in some areas where there are strong policy grounds for doing so (eg, health, education and also housing: although even the left don’t seem to care about the latter very much these days). I believe in a strong and fair social safety net. I’m not crazy about identity politics or militant unions (ie, AWU good, CFMEU bad, etc). And I’m totally with the current bipartisan position on unauthorised arrivals and offshore detention, but am a bit worried that Labor is toying with softening its line.
I find that this set of views gives me a lonely row to hoe in political debates. But, oddly enough, it is broadly similar to the set of views held by the Hawke-Keating ministry (except for identity politics, towards which Hawke and others were somewhat attracted, eg all the carry on about the overrated benefits of multiculturalism in supposedly making Australia less “boring”).
Basically I’m a grumpy old man who still sees the 1983-1996 period (and even some aspects of the following Howard era) as a bit of a golden age of Australian politics.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/06/24/bludgertrack-52-0-48-0-labor-4/comment-page-6/#comment-2820310
Scrapping/reducing negative gearing of residential investment properties is far fairer and better at increasing housing affordability than including housing in the asset testing on the aged pension.
Negative gearing on existing properties allows higher income people to buy housing by outbidding people trying to owner-occupy, using a tax subsidy not available to owner occupiers and indeed subsidised by non-investor owner-occupiers and renters who pay tax, and then renting the properties back to, in many cases, renters unable to afford to buy because of the high prices and has a minuscule to non-existent effect on construction of new dwellings. It is a horrible policy and is long overdue from scrapping. Out of the 4 main types of residential housing purchasers (owner-occupier-existing, investor-new, owner-occupier-new and investor-existing), they should be at the back of the queue for tax concessions and/or other subsidies.
Negative gearing for new build investment properties is a trickier question, as it has a significantly greater effect on housing supply. There is however little reason to provide tax concessions to investor construction but not owner-occupier construction and I think owner-occupier construction should be prioritised for tax subsidies, with new-build investors behind. The tax concessions should also be capped per property, with different caps depending on the number of bedrooms, to favour housing availability over gold plating.
Forcing aged pensioners out of their homes or into work for longer (both of which would happen and been seen to happen) would also be much harder sell politically than negative gearing restrictions.
Aged pension means-testing extending to owner-occupier housing would likely have a negative effect on wealth inequality (which is higher and harder to lower than income inequality) because it would, unless the threshold was very high, take intergenerational wealth out of the lower wealth end of the home owning part of the community. In contrast an inheritance tax would target higher wealth brackets.
Again Meha Babba you are just plain wrong
For starters the bank I was initially employed by had a fully computerised function from the early 1970’s, with the benefit of sitting back and seeing the problems encountered by other banks in transitioning
So tasks such as manually calculating interest half yearly etc etc had disappeared
So there was investment in process prior to deregulation in the 1980’s
There were 7 Free Enterprise banks who used to advertise – then the State owned banks plus the CBA
There were also Savings Banks
And Building Societies and Credit Unions
Yes Meyer, I think that most of my views (but not all) align with yours. However, it is the grumpy old man bit with which I have the absolute affinity.
Lovely surprise to hear Danial Johnston singing Story of an Artist on the new Apple ad. 🙂
Sorry , it was Meher, not Meyer
After Darling Range I am surprised ReachTEL has put its head above the parapet even though it is better news for Labor – a lead for Labor. Many of the experts are very dubious of single seat polls and for good reason it seems.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-06-24/gene-drives-feral-science-or-feral-solution/9896452
After re-reading this ABC article today on gene driving I am coining “ecogeneering” which is to use genetic engineering to alter entire species in order to cause whole-ecology change. “If a gene drive is released to alter a given ecosystem it will affect everyone who lives there — you cannot opt out.” – Professor Esvelt
(I think there is an error in this diagram. In the second row, mouse 1 and 2, left pair, should be swapped. It should be grey first, then blue/green.)
Anyway, according to wikipedia the idea isn’t recent (2003) but using CRISPR allows edited genes to be inserted into an organism’s genome and then changed individuals can be returned to a wild population. The article mentions work towards a gene drive to eliminate feral mice by “driving” female infertility.
Lots of hmm.
But Tom, according to some it is only the poor who purchase properties for the purpose of Negative Gearing
And it is only the poor who buy Shares for the purpose of receiving a dividend then a rebate for tax never paid by the Investor in the first place
So these schemes must maintain because to do otherwise impacts on the poor who are struggling to pay their utility costs
Tom: “Aged pension means-testing extending to owner-occupier housing would likely have a negative effect on wealth inequality (which is higher and harder to lower than income inequality) because it would, unless the threshold was very high, take intergenerational wealth out of the lower wealth end of the home owning part of the community. In contrast an inheritance tax would target higher wealth brackets.”
Maybe I should better explain the proposal that I have heard some people put forward.
The idea is that pensioners with housing assets worth more than a certain amount (say more than $1 million) should be incentivised through the asset-testing system to set up reverse-mortgage income streams from their properties instead of the age pension. I would be in favour of making these loans as favourable as possible to the pensioners through subsidies. It could be designed to be a generous scheme to make the lives of these people better. And there would be a cap of $1 million, so that affected people would still have a substantial asset to leave their children: which seems to be something that matters to many people. (Not me: I tell my offspring to make their own money as I intend to spend the lot).
Something comparable was done with the interest deeming arrangements introduced by Hawke which got pensioners out of the practice of putting their money into zero interest bank accounts.
The reverse mortgage arrangement would have some of the same effect as death duties, but would be better targeted at those with large assets.
It’s probably politically unsaleable, but it seems to me to be more equitable in some ways than the current system, which discriminates heavily in favour of those pensioners who were lucky enough to be able to buy their own homes and against lifelong renters.
Late Riser – just somebody come up with something to put a lid on these fucking feral cats – and take a few foxes with them
Observer
Don’t forget the Starr-Bowkett societies which always struck me as bizarre form of financing but did put a lot of people into houses
Jaeger
Yep. Sadly.
Those Reachtel polling figures do not seem to provide much joy for the LNP but a lot of hope for Labor, IMO.
Take Longman.
#ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of #Longman 2 Party Preferred: ALP 50 (+3 since 10 May) LNP 50 (-3) #auspol
#ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of #Longman Primary Votes: ALP 39.1 LNP 34.9 ON 14.7 GRN 4.4 Other 3.7 Undecided 3.2 #auspol.
Two weeks ago it was 52-48 to the LNP, which was itself a narrowing since May when it was 53-47.
One National is still on 14.7. Does anyone know how preferences were distributed? Actuals, last election results or some hypothetical ‘guess’ alla Newspoll?
Labor is going hard after the One Nation vote and I can’t see how Pauline tying herself to Truffles is going to help. No wonder she was irate over the robocalling. Keep it up Labor, I say!
Sprocket ~ @ #304 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 4:45 pm
Que? 17th of May?
Marcos De Feilittt @ #317 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 5:07 pm
Yep. It is a pretty humane way to reduce a population. No more offspring. I would note that Australia is an island. From the Wikipedia article I found. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive
I don’t trust Reachtel Single Seat polling any more!
I trust Reachtel single seat polling when it favours labor. When it does not it is bullshit.
Hypocritical ? Of course. Do I care ? No.
I find that is the best way to sleep well.
Anyway, the trend in Longman is in the favour of labor. Perhaps a series of such polls which reflect a trend one way or the other is more beneficial to analysis ?
Cheers.
Real time link.
https://youtu.be/E47Qeeuu7sw
lizzie @ #130 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 8:37 am
Melbourne would very likely be where the biggest protests would occur. Nonetheless, I think we’ll see some very large protests *if* the visit happens.
Turnbull grovelling to Trump would have quite the impact in the polls, I’m looking forward to it.
Isn’t Bill Maher an Anti-Vaxxer?
Father Rod Bower really lets fly at the Uber Tuber here!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/anglican-priest-rod-bower-brands-peter-dutton-a-sodomite-in-social-media-post-20170930-gyrtk5.html
Heard this guy on the radio this afternoon, so hunted down the transcript. Amongst other contentions:
‘ One hundred and fifty years ago the average age of death was about 40. Now it’s pushing 82 in Australia and the rest of the world. Two hundred years ago only 10% of the people on this planet had access to clean water. Now 90% of the people on earth have access to clean water.
Two hundred years ago 85% of the world was malnourished. Now 90% of the world is not malnourished. About 10% of the world is malnourished. And the bold statement here—and I’ll return to it later when I talk about religion and politics—there’s less human suffering per capita than there’s ever been before…’
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/allinthemind/martin-seligman-1/9886008
doyley @ #324 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 5:23 pm
History says average swings against the Government are about 5%. Everyone, pinged by the S44 rubbish has been re-elected. Individual seat polls have a very unreliable predictive quality. Labor has been 53/47 on previous election distribution of preferences for over a year.
Why are Labor people so easily spooked?
Boo!
The reason that the average age of death was 40 was that child mortality. The life expectancy of a six year-old was quite a bit higher than 40, unless they were in the many dangerous parts of the working class.
‘Why are Labor people so easily spooked?’
…because of the Howard years, where between every election Labor was going to romp it home and then when Der Tag arrived, JWH won again.
zoomster @ #329 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 5:58 pm
Sounds wonderful … until you realize we have achieved this most of this by “borrowing” capital from future generations.
One example – two hundred years ago C02 levels were 280 PPM. Today they are 410PPM. In 20 years they will be well above 450 PPM – i.e. at “catastrophic” levels.
Future generations will have to deal with this. Along with many other things.
I wonder what they will say about us?
Tom
So decreased child mortality doesn’t count as an improvement??
C@t
“I don’t trust Reachtel Single Seat polling any more!”
Nor should you. However, the trend is significant imo.
zoomster @ #335 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 6:09 pm
I would expect female mortality also fell, childbirth being an arduous undertaking.
Decreased child mortality is very definitely a major improvement. However, just saying that the average age of death was about 40 tends to give many people the impression that it was usual do die around that age, which is not accurate as it was babies, young children and people quite a bit over 40 who did most of the dying (unless there was a major war that killed lots of young men).
Tom
Yeah, knew that.
…in the case of Australia, at least, we have both – decreased infant deaths and increased life expectancy.
BK @ #115 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 5:52 pm
On a further religious not (middle C ♫) the following may be of interest.
Penicillin is a major contributor to long term liveability in humans.
Clean water would be one of the yuugest contributors………… I think.
Apropos Uk Labour. They have never really modernised in a sustainable way like the ALP has. Corbyn embodies all the old cliches of British 1970/80s, he looks at all issues through that prism. But the overriding issue that will prevent British Labour from cutting through is their hopelessly constructed position on Brexit. It’s hard to convey just how much of a disaster Brexit will be for Britain and Corbyn is essentially in the same camp as the head banging Brexit Tories. Most of the Labour caucus here are remainers the tensions are unbelievable. Brexit will divide And define Britain for years.
Lizzie, ‘This morning I sadly said farewell to my 4ft wide electric oil-filled panel heater. It just didn’t heat.’.
I am not sure if you are aware, so I will mention it, but radiators and oil filled panel heaters are very energy inefficient. For every unit of electricity you get one unit of heat.
Reverse cycle airconditioner on the other hand produce 3 units of heat for every unit of electricity. They do this by pumping heat from outside in to your house (even when it is ‘cold’ outside). The other benefit is they can be used to cool inside during summer by pumping heat from inside your house to the outside.
Many of you will be pleased that I’m going to love you and leave you – I’ll be back on or about 29 July when, hopefully, Shorten will have become the first Federal Opposition Leader since 1917? to lose a seat, if not two, to the Federal Government in a byelection. Surely Albo will have had enough by then to knife the short, shouty one.
Pretty sure Longman will go LNP, possibly Braddon and just maybe Mayo.
Good luck with clinging on to the Reachtel Individual Seat Polling telling you how badly the LNP will do.
Don’t change – the SJW outrage and moral superiority is great for the Roses.
zoomster @ #333 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 6:09 pm
Feel the Force Zoomster!
*waves to CC*
SS
‘But the overriding issue that will prevent British Labour from cutting through is their hopelessly constructed position on Brexit. It’s hard to convey just how much of a disaster Brexit will be for Britain and Corbyn is essentially in the same camp as the head banging Brexit Tories. ‘
Corbyn does Brexit dumb and dumber with a certain adroitness.
Compact Crank @ #346 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 7:01 pm
Opens the fly wire door as a courstesy.
Don’t want it hitting him on the arse on the way out!