Labor’s two-point gain in last fortnight’s Essential Research poll has proved to be an aberration, with the latest result snapping back to 52-48. This is matched by the primary votes, on which the Coalition is up two to 38% and Labor down two to 35% (we will have to wait for the full report later today to see how the minor parties have gone). According to The Guardian’s report, the poll also finds 50% favouring Labor’s tax policy over the Coalition, with the result for the latter not stated, except of course that it’s lower; 79% supporting the first stage of the government’s tax cuts, targeting lower and middle income earners, but only 37% for stage three, whereby the tax scales will be flattened to the advantage of higher income earners; support and opposition for company tax cuts tied at 39% apiece; support for higher finding for the ABC, though we will have to wait for hard data on which areas of the broadcaster’s activities were most favoured.
Other questions relate to international matters, with 35% responding that the North Korea summit would make the world safer, 8% less safe, and 41% no difference. On foreign leaders, Justin Trudeau (up nine on last year) and Jacinda Ardern (on debut) both scored 54% approval, and if I’m reading this correctly, Theresa May scored 42% (up nine) and Donald Trump 22% (up six) – I believe other leaders will have been canvassed as well, but further results will have to wait.
UPDATE: Full results from Essential here – the Greens are up one to 11%, and One Nation down one to 7%. Further international leadership approval ratings include a 43% for Angela Merkel, unchanged on last year, 42% for Emmanuel Macron, up one, 19% for Vladimir Putin, up three, and, if you could credit it, 9% for Kim Jong-Un. Fortuitously, this comes as the Lowy Institute publishes results of a survey of 1200 respondents on Australian attitudes to the world, which similarly finds high levels of confidence for Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron, and low ones for Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un.
Also out today is further results from the Newspoll in The Australian, finding Malcolm Turnbull favoured by 47% as best leader to handle the asylum seeker issue (down five from December) and Bill Shorten on 30% (up two). It also finds 26% expecting Labor will “improve the policy”, 37% that it will “open the floodgates”, and 24% that it will make no difference.
WWP
The other track is, I think, called the Kakoda Track. It has a series of plaques that reflect different events from the war.
“All of us see things differently. I recall Bill’s Beaconsfield performance as a major, and totally unnecessary piece of grandstanding and big-noting of himself, which accomplished nothing whatsoever for the trapped miners.”
No big surprise.
JW:
I’ve done the Sandpatch stairs here and that nearly killed me!
Surely, Malcolm is absolutely desperate to go this year. He won’t expect to be neck and neck with Labor before he pulls the trigger. He just wants to know there is a viable chance of reeling in Labor. I suspect the egomaniac will think that 48-52 gives him a decent chance. His charisma will get him over the line and lots of shy tory voters will climb back onboard when the election is called.
‘I recall Bill’s Beaconsfield performance as a major, and totally unnecessary piece of grandstanding and big-noting of himself, which accomplished nothing whatsoever for the trapped miners. ‘
A very unfair assessment, given that he was asked to take on that role by the miners’ families.
Confessions
Looks like a great spot…where is it?
Australias heaviest ever ODI cricket loss occurred against England the other day (also Englands highest ever ODI innings). I am sure it has already been pointed out on PB but just in case here is a breakdown on the Australian team;
6 from West Australia
0 from NSW
Coach – West Australian
Hmmmmm.
“WWP
The other track is, I think, called the Kakoda Track. It has a series of plaques that reflect different events from the war.”
Right you are, I did the 6 – 8 laps of Jacobs ladder fairly regularly (I certainly wasn’t ‘running’ the whole way up all the laps) but I never did the Kakoda track more than twice and I regretted that.
“turbulent waters of Labor’s current economic/fiscal policies”
Please explain
Unless you view that some people who can so arrange their tax matters to receive a premium over and above a dividend remittance courtesy of the government is fair and reasonable
Unless you view that Australians now in the work force refuse promotions and salary rewards because such an increase sees then remitting more tax including because they progress to a higher marginal tax rate
Unless you view that those with a taxable income of $120,000- and above should be the major beneficiaries of tax legislation (in 6 years time!) whilst those below that level of taxable income will sometime in the future receive $500-, full stop and that $10- a week is substantial in the face of recessionary wages growth
Unless you believe that forecasting a surplus in 6 years and committing to spending that money 6 years ahead of any surplus materialising with no regard to the debt run up over the past 5 years
And that is before we get to Negative Gearing, the benefits Capital and borrowers have exclusively maintained over labour and savers and the raft of other “fairness” issues the Opposition is releasing policies in regard to to restore some semblance of balance to our society
The most effective form of regulation being self regulation, benefiting those who benefit from trickle down economics has failed the Nation
Read Stiglietz and then debate
JW:
Albany, just near the Albany wind farm. 500+, often referred to as as our own Jacob’s Ladder only harder!
500+ stairs that should read.
“Australias heaviest ever ODI cricket loss occurred against England the other day (also Englands highest ever ODI innings). I am sure it has already been pointed out on PB but just in case here is a breakdown on the Australian team;
6 from West Australia
0 from NSW
Coach – West Australian
Hmmmmm.”
Says the dude with the West Australian handle.
Confessions
I will be sure the check it out next time I am out that way. 500+ steps is pretty cool!
Simon saw the light.
Meher B
‘Ms Lehmann is someone who is running with the noisy “anti-PC” crowd (Latho, Rowan Dean et al).’
Lehmann’s language is restrained. Her arguments are reasoned and are supported by evidence. Latham is, IMO, maddened and Rowan Dean is nothing much more than a public schoolboy on roids. Putting Lehmann in with these two is, IMO, totally unfair.
Boerwar: “Lehmann’s language is restrained. Her arguments are reasoned and are supported by evidence. Latham is, IMO, maddened and Rowan Dean is nothing much more than a public schoolboy on roids. Putting Lehmann in with these two is, IMO, totally unfair.”
She’s put herself in with them.
Meher, and others for that matter, some good posts on Shorten and ALP prospects.
Meher, about ‘Labor tracking so far left on fiscal policy’, that may be a reflection of so far to the right the Liberals have moved.
Offering personal and company tax cuts while the budget is still in deficit and hoping for a trickle down effect, is in libertarian, small government territory.
Despite their economic reforms Hawks and Keating firmly believe in the role of a big interventionist government.
Dutton has just undone five years of brutality in one fell swoop. Bringing that dying man to Australia for palliative care will simply encourage hordes of people smugglers.
Soft in the heart = soft in the head.
JW:
Crazy locals use the Sandpatch stairs for fitness training.
Madness! 😀
mb
How?
“Simon saw the light.”
Yes he did, the fact that a NSW guy half as talented and a 1/4 as hard working will get a baggy green over the really talented WA guy every single time.
“I’m in the camp that Shorten is a pretty solid leader, albeit rather uncharismatic.”
In that regard, a bit like John Howard as Opposition Leader in 1995/96. He went on to become Prime Minister for nearly 12 years, undoing much of Hawke’s and Keating’s legacies.
It would be great if Shorten can do likewise, rolling back Abbott’s and Howard’s legacies (Turnbull won’t have one apart from tax cuts).
zoomster: “A very unfair assessment, given that he was asked to take on that role by the miners’ families.”
I’ve never heard that before: my recollection is that he rocked up to Beaconsfield offering to act as an intermediary between the company and the families/other mine employees. I have heard gossip that this wasn’t something any of the parties were particularly looking for at the time. Perhaps you know differently: the gossip one hears isn’t always right.
Boerwar:
One example among others
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tx7DZT_rAI
I think some people dont appreciate that Labor is an opposition playing to the conditions, they arent hiding away waiting for the Libs to fail, they are pushing back successfully on core Liberal policy areas, like taxation and the banks.
John Howard was successful because he had good political instincts, he knew how much he could get away with, it could well be that Shorten and his team are similar, they dont want to feel too safe. If they push the government from opposition, it makes their job much easier when they get in.
A lot of people making a big deal of Albos speech, but i assume a significant speech like that was reviewed, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they deliberately said some soft words to take the edge off a little.
I’ve heard that Bill Shorten was in America at the time of the Beaconsfield mine collapse and was prevailed upon to come down to Tasmania to be the point man for the families. Dick Pratt offered him his private jet to be able to do so asap.
Wow the ABC’s party room would be at home on sky, wow it is bad.
Albo is the MudOrcs pet Lefty poodle. He’d be kicked out of the kennel as soon as he was no longer of use to them.
It is like Andrew Probyn swallowed EVERY SINGLE LNP talking point and needs to repeat them over and over again.
In our capitalist society people are inculcated to believe that union officials are bad and corporate sewer-rats like Turnbull are wonders of nature. It comes with mother’s milk and is incredibly difficult to combat, despite it being the reverse of the true position.
mb
That link gets me Daisy Cousins.
Boerwar
Exactly and to think the Uber Tuner was reported just hours ago warning……………..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/aap/article-5875677/Aust-danger-phase-refugees-Dutton.html
Labor supported all the tax cuts for low and middle income earners, but the ABC’s Andrew is talking as if they oppose it. Wow it is hard for Labor, if the ‘left wing’ ABC repeats LNP talking points and lies like this, and then the Sky / fox lying propaganda is even worse, it is amazing how well they are doing.
C@t
And the Libs have used that to mock him as friend of the rich ever since.
Having repeated all the LNP lies, and not giving any ALP perspective at all, the ABC’s Party Room podcast then pulled in a News Corp Journo who goes the full propaganda lie. Yet some still believe the ABC is left biased. FMD it is bad.
Boerwar @ #3123 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 3:33 pm
The other woman on the panel is the Lehmann woman.
I wonder if Brian Trumble believes this will be to his advantage… Maybe he does. We know his political judgement is woeful.
confessions
Thanks. I think I will stick with analyzing the text of the article.
lizzie @ #3084 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 5:34 pm
Whilst sucking up to Pratt Jnr. But that’s okay because they are all rich Private School boys, in on the joke at the poor’s expense together and not afraid to say so when they get together and put their feet under Raheen’s table and behind closed doors and the gates slammed shut.
I think you are right WWP. Maybe if the entire squad and coaching staff, selectors, the CA board and their tea lady is from West Australia….
It is a bit like the IPA’s laissez faire economics mantra. It only fails because a skerrick of government influence still remains. Only complete capitulation will bear fruit.
(see, I can make cricket about politics)
A fair bit of water has to go under the bridge first.
Trump has to wreck the next NATO meeting before he turns his attention to wrecking the next APEC meeting before he can get around to disturbing our foreign affairs torpor.
lizzie @ #3087 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 5:43 pm
I think I might buy some eggs now and let them go right off! 😀
The only way to save the national ODI side is to make Western Australia secede.
I wonder if the US will have appointed an Ambassador to Australia before Trump visits.
C
Good point.
Anyone got any on the ground polling booth feedback from the WA by-election?
Bad decision, Julie. She just washed her hands of it and blamed Labor!!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-22/china-takes-over-radio-australias-old-shortwave-frequencies/9898754
Wow the Party Room, from the ABC finished by being even handed they were very even between Abbott’s opposition to the NEG as bad (too much) and the Government’s position the NEG is perfect.
*shakes head sadly*
Confessions @ #3094 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 5:46 pm
I’m sure they could rustle up someone from the NRA or The Heritage Foundation by then.
“Albo is the MudOrcs pet Lefty poodle. He’d be kicked out of the kennel as soon as he was no longer of use to them.”
Don’t know that I would agree with that characterisation but the Murdochracy would certainly be happy to stoke ALP leadership tensions and happily boost any challenger who looked like they could be be successful. Should they win, the dirt files (containing real and fake dirt) will be brought out and the attacks will transfer to the new leader with increased ferocity.