Labor’s two-point gain in last fortnight’s Essential Research poll has proved to be an aberration, with the latest result snapping back to 52-48. This is matched by the primary votes, on which the Coalition is up two to 38% and Labor down two to 35% (we will have to wait for the full report later today to see how the minor parties have gone). According to The Guardian’s report, the poll also finds 50% favouring Labor’s tax policy over the Coalition, with the result for the latter not stated, except of course that it’s lower; 79% supporting the first stage of the government’s tax cuts, targeting lower and middle income earners, but only 37% for stage three, whereby the tax scales will be flattened to the advantage of higher income earners; support and opposition for company tax cuts tied at 39% apiece; support for higher finding for the ABC, though we will have to wait for hard data on which areas of the broadcaster’s activities were most favoured.
Other questions relate to international matters, with 35% responding that the North Korea summit would make the world safer, 8% less safe, and 41% no difference. On foreign leaders, Justin Trudeau (up nine on last year) and Jacinda Ardern (on debut) both scored 54% approval, and if I’m reading this correctly, Theresa May scored 42% (up nine) and Donald Trump 22% (up six) – I believe other leaders will have been canvassed as well, but further results will have to wait.
UPDATE: Full results from Essential here – the Greens are up one to 11%, and One Nation down one to 7%. Further international leadership approval ratings include a 43% for Angela Merkel, unchanged on last year, 42% for Emmanuel Macron, up one, 19% for Vladimir Putin, up three, and, if you could credit it, 9% for Kim Jong-Un. Fortuitously, this comes as the Lowy Institute publishes results of a survey of 1200 respondents on Australian attitudes to the world, which similarly finds high levels of confidence for Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron, and low ones for Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un.
Also out today is further results from the Newspoll in The Australian, finding Malcolm Turnbull favoured by 47% as best leader to handle the asylum seeker issue (down five from December) and Bill Shorten on 30% (up two). It also finds 26% expecting Labor will “improve the policy”, 37% that it will “open the floodgates”, and 24% that it will make no difference.
daretotread
If Shorten does not meet expectations in the July by elections, there is no way Turnbull will call a September poll. He has unequivocally ruled out going early, and to do so would completely destroy any credibility he has or seeks. The election will be held in May – with The ALP still the likely winner
Fair enough GG. We’ll see how it all plays out. You may well be right.
Al Pal @ #2676 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 2:23 pm
What about the pressure from Turnbull’s opponents. I guess you are right if Turnbull does very well, but what if it is a bit iffy.
So Labor picks up Braddon but not Longman and Sharkie is returned. Labor’s results in the West are good but not spectacular. It is a bit of a lose lose for BOTH Turnbull and Shorten.
Confessions says: Saturday, June 23, 2018 at 2:19 pm
Today’s Real Time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdmcTt35bLg
***************************************************
THANKS Confessions 🙂 …… ( pull yourself together Lady …. classic Bill Maher )
Rex Douglas @ #2674 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 2:20 pm
Rex
Shorten is doing a solid workmanlike performance. Not spectacular but not bad either. Labor would be stupid to change and indeed I sort of assume ALL those pushing for it are LNP trolls (or in the case of Pyne wishful thinkers)
zoomster @ #2172 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 2:21 pm
Maybe they are waiting on Waters to be re-installed before making a change.
phoenixRed:
The NRA TV guy is interesting.
daretotread. @ #2177 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 2:31 pm
We seem to agree that Shorten will remain leader, but for interest sakes who would you see within the FPLP as a better salesperson for the Labor manifesto ?
“Pegasus says:Saturday, June 23, 2018 at 12:10 pm
Peter Brent: http://insidestory.org.au/big-target/”
I don’t often agree with Mumble, but IMO he’s spot on here. Labor appears to be determined to make the forthcoming election into a battle between the “rich” and the “battlers”. It’s a “big target” policy platform all right, and one that seems increasingly focused on taking nice things away from people, rather than giving out goodies.
The electorate isn’t very impressed by Turnbull’s Government, but polling continues to indicate that they quite like the cut of his jib as a leader: a centrist with a touch of technocrat about him, the same qualities that they thought they saw in Rudd.
It’s going to be interesting to watch what happens from now to the election. A lot depends on Turnbull and key members of his team campaigning well (ie, better than last time) and the resentful right rump of the party being prepared to shut up and remain invisible. Turnbull & co. will need to direct all their efforts to making Labor look scary and divisive. This would have been a doddle for a gifted political campaigner like Howard, but harder for the current bunch. But, given the rich fodder provided by Labor’s many courageous policies, it should still be achievable.
Which is why I think people looking forward to a Labor triumph next election night would do well to keep a lid on it. The majority of Australians have always been fundamentally conservative and fearful of change. Understandable IMO, as present day life in Australia since the end of WWII has been better than in most other parts of the world.
I don’t entirely understand how it has come about that Labor has tracked so far leftwards in terms of economic and fiscal policy. It has certainly given them more continuous attention from the media than they would otherwise have received, which was also the case with the last “big target” strategy attempted by an opposition: Hewson’s Fightback in 1993. But are voters on polling day going to be greatly influenced by what they saw in the media 18-36 months beforehand?
I’m not saying Labor can’t win. But, given the stumbling, divided state of the Libs, I reckon that they would be in a much better position if they had stuck to a smaller target strategy. I’m more than happy to be jeered out if I turn out to have gotten it wrong.
Labor’s results in the West are good but not spectacular….
Who will be the judge of that? The Liberals aren’t running.
I guess if Labor gets less than 105pc of the vote Rex et al will be in full cry about Shorten
I would have thought if Shorten was as bad as the Tory cheer squad say the Libs would have run in Perth at least. They got 42pc of the primary in 2016 so surely the dead weight of Shorten would have seen them improve.
But no, they squibbed it.
BTW, it was fascinating to see Albo, whose personal views hail from the furthest leftward reaches of Labor thinking, endeavouring to pour a little oil on the turbulent waters of Labor’s current economic/fiscal policy platform. Perhaps he thinks a little along the same lines as I do
Jolyon:
“I can do the 1.5km in 6.5 minutes OK but am struggling to get much better than 25 minutes for 5km. I will have a crack at the regime you suggest.”
I’m curious as to how many times you run a week. At a guess you may have some issues with your base strength if you are struggling to run past 7km. Injuries are a bitch to manage I know, but I suspect you have the speed to run 5km at 4.30min/km pace but not the strength.
If you are struggling with running volume can I suggest to supplement running with another complimentary activity. Having been knocked off my bike one too many times recently for the past 18months I’ve been doing all my cycle training indoors using an electronic power trainer and online training apps. It’s amazing how much strength you can obtain by a consistent 3-4hr hours per week, which carries over into running very well.
Also given our respective ages I cannot speak highly enough of resistance training. Twice a week. Excellent for stimulating natural hgh and testosterone production and hence body tissue repair.
This:
“Shorten is doing a solid workmanlike performance. Not spectacular but not bad either. Labor would be stupid to change and indeed I sort of assume ALL those pushing for it are LNP trolls (or in the case of Pyne wishful thinkers)”
Well said DTT!
I love it when people apply Howardesque logic and a whole range of analysis consistent with the peak of Keating’s boom Howard benefited from, to the current fundamentally different economic situation.
The Abbott-Turnbull government is a complete failure, really only the right wing propagandists in the Fox group of propaganda companies still think any other way, their viewers might well agree with them, but that isn’t thinking, anyone watching a fox propaganda organisation stopped thinking long long ago.
Boerwar: “Secondly, despite the high levels of equality in the Scandinavian countries, Swedish women are more likely to suffer domestic violence than women elsewhere. (This is in the context of the claim that more equality between the genders will lead to less domestic violence.)”
Ms Lehmann is someone who is running with the noisy “anti-PC” crowd (Latho, Rowan Dean et al).
But she’s right in finding an interesting case study of gender issues in Sweden, where it is my understanding that stronger efforts have been made towards achieving gender equality than in any other country, but with mixed results. Another instance is that of increasing female participation in professions: as in Australia, Swedish women are now strongly represented – above 50% in many cases – in professions such as doctors, lawyers, senior public service managers, and even some private sector management roles. But the proportion of women going into areas such as engineering and traditional male trades in building and manufacturing remains very low. I don’t think anyone knows for sure why this is the case, but it’s an interesting phenomenon.
“A final statistic is that a very small proportion of the population commits around two thirds of all crimes. (This is in the context of the debate about collective as opposed to individual guilt/accountability.”
On what I’ve heard from policemen, this is definitely true in relation to crimes committed against strangers: eg, it’s typically the case in Hobart that only one individual or small group is undertaking home burglaries at any time, but, until they are caught, can perform many dozens such crimes per week. I assume that the numbers of rapists who attack strangers like Ms Dixon in public would be a single digit figure nationally.
I suspect that a much larger proportion of the population would be involved in drug-dealing, date rapes, domestic violence, child abuse within families, etc. Of course, many of these carry on for a long time (in some cases, indefinitely) without getting caught.
“He has unequivocally ruled out going early, and to do so would completely destroy any credibility he has or seeks. “
If it best suits Malcolm to call an election for September, May or any other month, he’ll do it regardless of anything he might have said earlier. If it’s the former, he and most of the media will conveniently ‘forget’ any prior commitments.
Whatever it takes.
Jolyon. I think I need to know your current mileage and injury niggles before I prescribe any particular regime. That said, if you are all ok I’d suggest something like the following:
4 runs per week.
Saturday morning park run.
Long run (either Sunday or if you need another day rest on Monday). Start at 7km and add in another 1km each week.
Wednesday – Long intervals, as below
Friday – easy run but with 4 x 20 second sprint surges, with 100 seconds float recovery (ie. one surge every two minutes). However on weeks 4, 8 and 12 (recovery weeks) just do a short 15-20 minute jog or skip the session altogether.
First 3 weeks I’d start the long intervals at 500M efforts. Start off with either 2 or 3, take 3 minutes floating recovery betweeen interval. Add in another interval each week but in the Fourth week, recovery so swap out for 4 x 30 second surges and have a very light jog on Friday or skip the session altogether.
Week five – it’s 1km repeat time. Start with 2, with at least 30 seconds recovery between. Build in. another one repeat for the each of next two weeks. Week 8 – recovery week. Same as week 4.
Week 9 – aim for 5 x 1km. Really focus on even pacing at target race pace. For weeks 10 and 11 – same as week 9, but try to drop 30 seconds off your recovery time each week.
For your parkrun efforts focus on target pace even if you blow up by the 4th km. Keep a record of when you blow up and how much you blow up. There is a mental component to this. From 3000-4500 meters it will be gut wrenching hard, but focus on maintaining cadence (180 steps per minute) and your form and tough it out. As you build physical strength from this programme make sure you build mental toughness to match!
https://www.theage.com.au/world/oceania/a-new-approach-to-defending-democratic-discussion-20180620-p4zmlq.html
Propagandists now use social media to exploit the human mind’s bias for finding patterns of meaning in events in order to promote incorrect or distorted ideas – all of which can disrupt democracies which rely on factual discussion in order for voters and politicians to make informed decisions.
A new paper from Australian National University’s National Security College, co-authored by the writers of this article, proposes examining and exposing such distorted stories for the benefit of public debate. Addressing Australia’s Vulnerability to Weaponised Information Narratives calls for the Parliamentary Library to research and report on the weaponised narratives if and when they occur within Australia’s parliamentary debate.
———————–
Addressing Australia’s Vulnerability to Weaponised Narratives
https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/department-news/12728/addressing-australias-vulnerability-weaponised-narratives
https://www.theage.com.au/world/oceania/a-new-approach-to-defending-democratic-discussion-20180620-p4zmlq.html
Propagandists now use social media to exploit the human mind’s bias for finding patterns of meaning in events in order to promote incorrect or distorted ideas – all of which can disrupt democracies which rely on factual discussion in order for voters and politicians to make informed decisions.
A new paper from Australian National University’s National Security College, co-authored by the writers of this article, proposes examining and exposing such distorted stories for the benefit of public debate. Addressing Australia’s Vulnerability to Weaponised Information Narratives calls for the Parliamentary Library to research and report on the weaponised narratives if and when they occur within Australia’s parliamentary debate.
———————–
Addressing Australia’s Vulnerability to Weaponised Narratives
https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/department-news/12728/addressing-australias-vulnerability-weaponised-narratives
We Want Paul: “The Abbott-Turnbull government is a complete failure, really only the right wing propagandists in the Fox group of propaganda companies still think any other way, their viewers might well agree with them, but that isn’t thinking, anyone watching a fox propaganda organisation stopped thinking long long ago.”
For most of the past 3 years, the far right commentators on Sky, in the Oz, etc. have been much more critical of the Turnbull Government – on SSM, alternative energy, the superannuation changes and other taxation policies (even the recent tax cuts) – than anyone in the Fairfax-ABC universe. This continuing stream of vitriol must be having an effect, but I continue to wonder whether it isn’t prompting a proportion of the true blue set to tell the pollsters that they are going to vote Labor (or PHON with second preference to Labor), in the hope that this will topple Turnbull and bring back their beloved Tone. But, come election night…
I’ve always held that PB provides an infinite fount of knowledge and today this is confirmed.
We have a marathon coach among us. 😆
Alternate realities must be a fun place to live. Let’s hope the Coalition never realise they’re living in one.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/23/dying-refugee-moved-from-nauru-to-australia-after-intense-campaign?CMP=soc_568
I’ve watched sky, and yeah nah. Sure they are on Tony’s side in the Malcolm / Tony war, but that is because they are right wing propagandists of the worst democracy destroying type. Sean Hannity is their leader, he is a lying, conspiracy spreading, ethics free scum and he heads propaganda for the fox group of companies. Anyone working there should be ashamed of their betrayal of their country and their profession (those that started out as or hoped to be journos before they were corrupted).
“How One Conservative Think Tank Is Stocking Trump’s Government
By placing its people throughout the administration, the Heritage Foundation has succeeded in furthering its right-wing agenda.”
Ring any bells??
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/20/magazine/trump-government-heritage-foundation-think-tank.html
Jolyon – you may notice I suggested having 30 seconds recovery between 1km intervals. Belay that. I meant 3 minutes recovery (although you can reduce that in the last block, as I suggest above).
I agree with DTT on Shorten’s solid, workmanlike performance and I think that is the key attribute that is needed right now.
We’ve had ‘rockstar’ pollies for too long who have, each in their own way (whether by accident or design) have served to distort the political discourse. Their presence has each highlighted an underlying issue within our society, simply by being who they are.
If you look at Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and Turnbull – each displayed aspects of our society that exaggerated the electorate’s response to them (intended or not).
The Libs are trying to paint Shorten in a similar light with their ‘kill Bill’ strategy but it isn’t working because Bill hasn’t bitten/remains low key.
Some here have lamented the fact that Shorten isn’t trying to steal the limelight at every opportunity, but I suspect (and this is my personal viewpoint) that this is deliberate. A steady hand. Workmanlike. Quietly effective.
It is what the world of politics needs right now.
Trump. Abbott. (In his way) Turnbull. Joyce … the list is a long one … are all exaggerations and have led the world into a downhill spiral.
The “Kill Bill” strategy does seem to be failing, despite quite some media support, due to under-rating Shorten. Shorten does seem to be playing the long game and also seems to have grasped that public opinion has moved leftward over recent years. I think Shorten has a decent chance at becoming a long term ALP PM, possibly even the longest serving ALP PM.
Yep Jen. Spot on
lizzie @ #3022 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 12:20 pm
I think the problem was that the Potato wanted to be 100% sure he was going to die! 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁
Barney
That’s almost believable. So cruel.
@Steve777
I agree with Malcolm Turnbull going to an election when it is convenient. However I see Labor retaining both Longman and Braddon (seats they need to win to retain government at a federal election) and Turnbull will go to polls at the latest date as possible. If the Liberals can win both seats (which is unlikely to me), then the election will be in Spring. I don’t know what would happen if the Liberals win Longman, but lose Braddon although.
lizzie @ #3030 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 1:22 pm
No wink?
Hi Andrew,
Thanks a lot for the advice, I will certainly use a lot of it.
My history with running niggles includes plantar fasciitis, piriformis syndrome (worst physio ever), knee pain (from poorly tracking knee cap and corrected with weights machine).
I have slowly ramped up my exercise regime as follows:
1) Running up Jacob’s Ladder in Kings Park (242 steps) 6 reps once or twice a week.
2) Cycle commuting (12 km each way) once or twice a week.
3) 5km run, Tuesday and Thursday with running group from work.
4) 6-7 km run on the weekend.
I have been ramping it up slowly with the above mix to get the kilos off and to avoid injury. I think it is time to start focussing more on speed now so your advice is very timely. I only have 10 weeks till the city to surf so will obviualy have to tailor things a bit.
I have access to a weights room at work so can easily fit in some reistance work on the legs.
I probably need to work on the mental toughness but may need to temper that a bit, given my age!
It’s probably the only way to get a Liberal to pay attention.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/23/liberal-party-feminist-kelly-odwyer-sexual-harassment-is-an-economic-issue
Barney
Definitely not a winking matter. The man and his department are plain vindictive.
I’m in the “Not convinced about Shorten” camp, and I’d much prefer Albo as leader, because frankly I think he’s got more authenticity and less union baggage. But, I appreciate I’m swimming against the tide in this blog.
On the topic of Bemused, he used to have some good things to say in here, but that’s going back 10 years or so, when I used to post in here a lot more often. William of course is perfectly entitled to boot out of here whoever he wants.
There is nothing more beautiful than two people in love kissing each other: two men; two women; or a man and a woman. … but a defeated Queenslander kissing a victorious NSW state of origin opponent, well that is just wrong. The winning NSW partner should have been in the doghouse for at least a month (if not immediately single), no kisses for them.
lizzie @ #3035 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 1:43 pm
Agree, I was thinking of your “almost”!
There are obvious links between Bannon, Trump, Putin, Salvini and many others.
Dutton is preaching the same message – is it appropriate to ask ask what links he has with these characters?
Just reading that is making me feel tired and in pain.
Ah, peter brent, the man who announced DURING the 2013 election campaign that Rudd was home and hosed, and reversed himself 24 hours later! How did that happen, Mumbles? Brent doesn’t seem to realise that the only reason Labor lost the last election because it’s path back to budget surplus was not, supposedly, as good as the libs. Making sure that mistake his not repeated is the absolutely top priority at the next election. Nor does he explain why, if Labor’s big target strategy is the wrong one, they almost won the last election and are now well ahead in the polls. Labor also has to make sure that the dialogue is not about boats, boats, boats. It is doing that brilliantly.
Something else to remember about Shorten is that the first time most people outside the political bubble heard of him was during the Beaconsfield mine accident and its subsequent unfolding drama. As I recall, he showed himself in a pretty good light as de facto spokesman for the workers, without being excessively belligerent (publicly at least) towards management. I think his generally calm and assured, but appropriately concerned, demeanour may have planted a generally positive (as in capable rather than exciting) image in the public mind, whatever the mainstream media may have claimed since his ascent to high office in the ALP.
“1) Running up Jacob’s Ladder in Kings Park (242 steps) 6 reps once or twice a week.”
I always found the other climb, to the West, much harder, but I can’t remember it’s name. It had those step paths interspersed with uneven steps, it was an absolute killer. But I had a circuit I loved, up Mount Street, down Jacob’s ladder, along the bottom and up the path whose name I’ve forgotten followed by the rollercoaster to Nedlands. Not nicer run in a CBD anywhere in world I’m prepared to bet.
Evan: “I’m in the “Not convinced about Shorten” camp, and I’d much prefer Albo as leader, because frankly I think he’s got more authenticity and less union baggage. But, I appreciate I’m swimming against the tide in this blog.”
Of course Shorten, unlike Albo, was once the leader of a major union. On any fair assessment, he didn’t carry much “baggage” with him when he transitioned to the political sphere: I would suggest no more, for the sake of comparison, than Bob Hawke. For obvious reasons, the Libs and some media outlets would like to suggest otherwise, but, when you look into the allegations, there really isn’t very much to any of them.
Albo, on the other hand, does carry a bit of baggage in terms of his past ties to Ian Macdonald. If, as I very much doubt, he were ever to become leader, this history would certainly be exploited by the Government and media.
I’m in the camp that Shorten is a pretty solid leader, albeit rather uncharismatic. I’m much less concerned about him than I am about the policy package that he and Bowen are running with.
Barney
I know you were thinking of my ‘almost’, but in Potatohead’s case, nothing humorous. 🙁
Hugh Brown @ #3043 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 4:54 pm
Agreed. I think Shorten has played, and continues to play, an absolute blinder. And the government clearly regards him as a credible alternative PM, even if some of the public have not yet cottoned on to the fact.
Confessions
Haha…it is not that bad when you get used to it…you have to start off doing a lot less a lot slower though 🙂
Hugh Brown: “Something else to remember about Shorten is that the first time most people outside the political bubble heard of him was during the Beaconsfield mine accident and its subsequent unfolding drama. As I recall, he showed himself in a pretty good light as de facto spokesman for the workers, without being excessively belligerent (publicly at least) towards management. I think his generally calm and assured, but appropriately concerned, demeanour may have planted a generally positive (as in capable rather than exciting) image in the public mind, whatever the mainstream media may have claimed since his ascent to high office in the ALP.”
All of us see things differently. I recall Bill’s Beaconsfield performance as a major, and totally unnecessary piece of grandstanding and big-noting of himself, which accomplished nothing whatsoever for the trapped miners. It took me a long while to get over that feeling: it was his far more practical and far less self-promoting efforts with the NDIS that won me back to him to a certain extent.
https://thewest.com.au/news/world/priest-caught-on-camera-slapping-a-crying-child-during-a-baptism-in-france-ng-b88874634z
Another reason (if we needed any more) to keep children away from priests. Even in front of the parents they have no qualms abusing a child. The father had to practically wrestle the baby away from him!