Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

After a spike to Labor a fortnight ago, it’s back to business as usual in the latest Essential Research poll, which also finds Donald Trump slightly less unpopular with Australians than he was a year ago.

Labor’s two-point gain in last fortnight’s Essential Research poll has proved to be an aberration, with the latest result snapping back to 52-48. This is matched by the primary votes, on which the Coalition is up two to 38% and Labor down two to 35% (we will have to wait for the full report later today to see how the minor parties have gone). According to The Guardian’s report, the poll also finds 50% favouring Labor’s tax policy over the Coalition, with the result for the latter not stated, except of course that it’s lower; 79% supporting the first stage of the government’s tax cuts, targeting lower and middle income earners, but only 37% for stage three, whereby the tax scales will be flattened to the advantage of higher income earners; support and opposition for company tax cuts tied at 39% apiece; support for higher finding for the ABC, though we will have to wait for hard data on which areas of the broadcaster’s activities were most favoured.

Other questions relate to international matters, with 35% responding that the North Korea summit would make the world safer, 8% less safe, and 41% no difference. On foreign leaders, Justin Trudeau (up nine on last year) and Jacinda Ardern (on debut) both scored 54% approval, and if I’m reading this correctly, Theresa May scored 42% (up nine) and Donald Trump 22% (up six) – I believe other leaders will have been canvassed as well, but further results will have to wait.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential here – the Greens are up one to 11%, and One Nation down one to 7%. Further international leadership approval ratings include a 43% for Angela Merkel, unchanged on last year, 42% for Emmanuel Macron, up one, 19% for Vladimir Putin, up three, and, if you could credit it, 9% for Kim Jong-Un. Fortuitously, this comes as the Lowy Institute publishes results of a survey of 1200 respondents on Australian attitudes to the world, which similarly finds high levels of confidence for Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron, and low ones for Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un.

Also out today is further results from the Newspoll in The Australian, finding Malcolm Turnbull favoured by 47% as best leader to handle the asylum seeker issue (down five from December) and Bill Shorten on 30% (up two). It also finds 26% expecting Labor will “improve the policy”, 37% that it will “open the floodgates”, and 24% that it will make no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,271 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Previous thread:


    It’s not just me (although it was tonight). It can be almost anyone. She thinks she owns the blog and has to chip in her two bob’s worth even when she’s not invited or welcome, or relevant (which is the most important aspect).



    None of that is a rule of any kind.

    Anyone can chip in their two bob’s worth, they do not (and should not need to be) invited.

    Nor need they be welcome. Tough titties if you don’t find another poster’s comments welcome. Deal with it.

    Nor do they have to be relevant. Lots of posts are irrelevant, yours (and mine, and many others) on occasion also.

    Your post is a disaster from start to finish.

    Not for the first, and certainly not the last time, you do not own this blog and decide what gets posted.

    That is William’s job.

    Go and get nicked.

  2. Melissa Davey‏Verified account @MelissaLDavey

    Victoria Chief Commissioner Graham Ashton has just told a press conference in Melbourne that “police are responding every 7 minutes to a family violence call and almost all of that is violence against women”.

    9:08 PM – 17 Jun 2018

  3. Morning all would have liked a couple more points.

    Grensborough Growler today is a new day, im getting ready for work and hoping it is a good one for all. I really am perplexed by your comment re know what you were talking about and scurrying away. Please explain what i said that was so offensive.

    If i had time i would spend more here and try and engaage on relevant stuff, the way the posts went last night enforced my thinking not diminished at all.

  4. Frednk
    It is a joke for you?

    It is interesting the different reactions here when men are confronted directly with what men do to women.

    Everything from silence to ridicule to protestations of victimhood.

    A bit like the Israelis bombing the shit out of Palestine.

  5. The take-it-or-leave-it proposition the government is putting to the Senate on personal income tax cuts is so brazen as to be breathtaking.

    Undermining the credibility of this “comprehensive tax reform” is the implicit recognition the budget simply cannot afford it now. The real question is could it ever be afforded without massive repercussions for the provision of essential services.

    This is pretending to commit a future government to a staggering $25 billion a year in lost revenue. That is the cost of stage three of the company tax cuts and all of the income tax package. As Labor’s Chris Bowen says, it is what Medicare costs every year.

    It is not only the opposition warning that we are being asked to accept a magic pudding of higher wages, more jobs, a return to budget surplus and the biggest “income tax cuts” in our history.

    Reputable economists like the Grattan Institute’s John Daley or Saul Eslake are shaking their heads in disbelief.

  6. Puffytmd says:
    Tuesday, June 19, 2018 at 6:29 am

    It is a joke for you?

    It’s a lot better reaction than getting upset with the irrationality of it all. Clearly mothers do not bring up their sons correctly. Can’t blame men for that.

    Statistically there will have been another murder since Eurydice Dixon got killed. It will probable have been a male that got killed; he will probable not have been walking alone in a park ; the second line will be domestic violence and a women; not my fault. I’m in the group who told my daughter to pick her friends and partners with a little care, tried to convince her to get an education so she was independent; I am so sorry for being a male trying to guide my female child. I told my male and female children not to put themselves in dangerous situations; I am so sorry for not pretending life is all sweetness and grace. And in out little corner of the world my rule was the same as my mothers; you do not hit girls.

    If there was a murder it definitely didn’t make front page news for days; that it seems is reserved for for pretty young girls who get killed walking alone at night; statistically very unlikely; perhaps that is why it is news.

  7. This is a disgusting symbol of Trump’s America.

    Ann Coulter on Fox News calls crying immigrant children “child actors” and looks directly into the camera to warn Trump not to fall for it.

  8. Trump replaces White House photos of French president with framed pictures of Kim Jong-un

    President Donald Trump’s White House has reportedly removed several photographs of French President Emmanuel Macron and replaced them with framed photos of North Korea dictator Kim Jong-un.

    Wall Street Journal reporter Michael C. Bender confirmed on Monday that photos of the president of France, one of Americans longest standing allies, were removed from a wall in the White House’s West Wing.


    The source said the factional fight was for control of the Liberal Party body that selects local government councillors in the area.

    One witness, who did not want to be identified, described the situation as an attempted “hostile takeover” of the branch.

    “Just before the meeting started, there was an altercation where some people were intimidating and swearing and pushing and shoving of the others who belonged to the meeting,” he said.

    “Others outside were blocked from entering the meeting.”

    The man said an elderly lady inside the cafe was “trampled on”, and a man who tried to intervene was “ganged up on”.

    “They started bashing him … they took him outside and started kicking him.

  10. Bill O’Reilly viciously turns on Trump: He ‘will not win’ immigration fight — and ‘should reverse course today’

    Former Fox News host Bill O’Reilly, an ardent defender of Donald Trump, slammed the president’s immigration policy of separating families and argued that the administration “should reverse course today.”

    In a series of tweets on Monday, O’Reilly became the latest Trump defender to turn on the president.

    “The government should know how bad this looks and how innocent children are actually suffering,” O’Reilly wrote. “The Trump administration will not win on this one and it should reverse course today.”

  11. The beauty of this blog is the diversity of views, to be honest i find some abhorent and also find some of the nastiness and one upmanship boring. But i have been reading it for about a decade and respect William and his handling of discussion, he should not have to be involved as much.

    The skill of reading / listening needs to develop, this blog can soon end up like anything on news ltd.

    Yep i know if i don’t like it take off, i like others need to ease up on the defensiveness and righteousness .

  12. I should add Puffytmd, In my little corner of the world the only person I know that has had difficulties with being beaten up by a stranger was a male and it was in the CBD; but in out little corner of the world if you want to go walking alone at night to reflect (not an unreasonable desire in my view) you do it across the back paddock where the biggest risk is a fox. Cites are dangerous; man is the top predator.

    And I still think there in nothing as inspiring as looking into the milky way without light pollution.

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Here’s The Guardian’s take on all the Essential polling questions.
    As China seeks to expand its influence, Julie Bishop says nations are at risk of large debts that threaten their sovereignty.
    Peter Hartcher goes into China’s methodology in this matter.
    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is at risk of breaching electoral laws by using a structure that runs state branches by “remote control” from Queensland, according to an explosive letter that reveals growing pressure inside the troubled party. Will this see her out the door once and for all?
    Amanda Vanstone tells us what One Nation got so badly wrong.
    Michelle Grattan on Palmer and Burston.
    Eryk Bagshaw explains what’s behind the tax cut battle.
    Phil Coorey tells us that the Senate vote over the $144 billion in income tax cuts has descended into a game of chicken, with the federal government vowing not to blink and split its package, while Labor will confirm today it will support only the first elements of the plan.
    Jennifer Hewett says that despite its remarkable ability to keep shooting itself in both feet, the Turnbull government is becoming more confident that Labor is vulnerable – on the economy and on Bill Shorten’s leadership.
    Scott Morrison’s tax attack falls flat as the parliamentary budget office strongly defends its modelling.
    Greg Jericho writes that underemployment, which mostly measures part-time workers who want to work more hours, was long seen as a second-order issue. But as the wages of all workers struggle to rise by more than inflation, the level of underemployment has become in some ways more important than unemployment – and it is an issue that is widespread across genders and areas of the country. And it’s holding wages down.
    Trump has attacked Germany’s Chancellor on his favourite medium, claiming the German people were turning against her.
    This statement from Optus says it all and is a great parallel to the problem with the NBN. Optus insists it never ‘under-catered’ for World Cup fans. They were blindsided by how strong the demand would be.
    Just read this crap from the Young Liberals’ Harry Stuchbury about the ABC. Question: WHICH consumers? The ones who feast on MKR and the other ratings-winning crap?
    In the aftermath of the legalising of same-sex marriage in Australia, the Anglican Church has ramped up its discrimination against gay people to new heights.
    This is what the private schools and Young Libs prepare them for!
    Such good breeding grounds!
    Another nice type here!
    Donald Trump said on Monday he would direct the Pentagon to create a “space force” as a new branch of the US military to shore up American dominance in space.
    What we need to know is that all our personal information is slowly being compiled by the Government to be accessed by one little identifier called MyGovID.–shame-if-something-were-to-happen-to-it,11607
    Linda Reynolds’ own goal on QandA over selling the ABC.
    Jess Irvine tells us that amid moves to exempt sanitary items from the GST, experts warn there are better ways to help women.
    Now evangelical Christians are stepping up abortion clinic protests in Queensland.
    The SMH editorial gets behind Frydenberg’s NEG but points at the damaging opposition from within the Coalition’s own ranks.
    The Australian says that Labor and a backbench revolt led by Tony Abbott may undermine plans for legislated emissions cuts on the electricity sector.
    Brian Morris, from energy consultancy Schneider Electric, says there will be a lot more wind and solar energy in the National Electricity Market by 2021 because costs continue to fall.
    The CSIRO has launched a new app aimed at ‘citizen scientists’, designed to understand how Australians use power at home to potentially prevent blackouts. CSIRO project leader Adam Berry said the Energise app will collect data during and after major energy events such as blackouts or during peak demand times and use it to forecast when they may happen again based on power usage patterns and weather conditions.
    Labor is preparing to ramp up attacks on the Coalition over the future of the ABC, accusing Liberals of not believing in public broadcasting after the party voted for privatisation. Mayo is in the crosshairs.
    Some believe the recent call by the Liberal Party’s Federal Council to privatise the ABC provides no cause for alarm because the policy directive is not binding on the government. That’s true; it’s not binding. But there is cause for concern if for no other reason than the privatisation of the ABC has now been placed on the political agenda.
    An ASIC commissioner has urged company directors to take seriously a leading barrister’s opinion that they could face lawsuits for failing to consider risks related to climate change.
    Julie Szego writes about our emotionally abusive relationship … with the banks.
    Birmingham’s $24.5 billion schools package is facing a backlash from all three key education sectors, as independent schools embark on a last-ditch effort to head off changes to the way funding is allocated, and Catholic educators warn of impending primary school closures.
    This is the government that would sell the ABC.,11608
    Michael West says foreign company rights to sue Australia are still in the trade pact mix and it’s something to worry about.
    Stephen Koukoulas outlines the remarkably simple case for an RBA rate cut.
    Audi chief executive officer Rupert Stadler has been arrested in relation to the emissions cheating scandal.
    The Dreamworld inquiry has already uncovered some shocking management failures.
    Clementine Ford has a good shot at the “not all men” excuse.
    And Jenna Price says, “For Eurydice’s sake, we need to do more than go to vigils”.
    Friday’s OPEC meeting in Vienna is shaping up as the most critical, and potentially the most fractious, since the cartel agreed to production limits.

    Cartoon Corner

    Fiona Katauskas reminds us of the sort of “balance” the right wing is looking for on the ABC.

    Of course Zanetti does his employer’s bidding on the ABC.

    And so does Jon Kudelka.
    Mark Knight on our World Cup loss.

    Some very good ones in here.

  14. Morning all. Lizzie I was just about to post that link to the story on the physical brawl at a Liberal Party meeting. Their tolerance of alternative views is once more well on display. The Liberal Party is being ruined by a violently aggressive group of hardline right wing fanatics.

    This from the mob who complain about “thuggish unions”! And they want to run the country? Also, stealing and destroying the mobile phones of witnesses is a crime, so I trust the NSW police are investigating.

    This reinforces Scout’s comments above. To paraphrase the old saying, Liberal Party goons may break my bones, but words typed on pollbludger will never hurt me.

  15. Finally, for now, because I don’t think I own the blog, I just want to say I love it and would be lost without it. So, so what if I come here every day? I thought that was the point? Come here and talk about politics and whatever. I was unaware there was a timekeeper and scorekeeper doing the stats on us! I guess I’ll have to curb my enthusiasm and be a good little woman and get back in my box and let the big man who actually does think he owns this blog lord it over all and sundry.

    Nope, nope, nope! That’s Mr Bowe’s job, not his, and I’m still here. 🙂

  16. Oh okay, one last thing. 😉

    Thank you to don for his supportive comment at the end of the last thread. What a gentleman!

  17. Puffytmd @ #4 Tuesday, June 19th, 2018 – 4:34 am

    It is a joke for you?

    It is interesting the different reactions here when men are confronted directly with what men do to women.

    Everything from silence to ridicule to protestations of victimhood.

    A bit like the Israelis bombing the shit out of Palestine.

    Some of the men on this forum have not got involved because by the time they caught up to the front of the thread it was apparent that it had been many hours since the discussion had been sensible or productive, and that any contribution on their part would be ignored by the protagonists and achieve nothing.

    The protagonists in this discussion stopped listening to each other hours ago and are now just exchanging insults. They may be very amused, the rest of us are bored by it. An opportunity to have an open discussion about a very serious matter has been lost.

  18. From the previous bludge:

    Bushfire Bill says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 8:17 pm

    Maybe a start would be funding more prevention ( and from reading this blog education) and sexual assault / domestic assault services than funding for a James Cook memorial

    Please tell the men on this blog specifically how they are supposed to organise these reforms?

    The same way we organise everything else! Quite obviously, men are not powerless. We can start by having properly towards each other. Then we can take the next steps, which are to listen to the victims of violence and discrimination and find ways to both avert them and heal the injuries they bring.

    This should be done for the sake of our sisters, our mothers and daughters, our wives and lovers. But it should also be done for the sake of our sons and brothers as well as ourselves. Violence afflicts us all and demands a common response.

    Violence is implicitly about power relations. We must understand this and we must not only temper the use of power, we must share it. This is true with respect to organised, official power; and it is true with respect to informal, social and familial power; and this needs to be reflected in our law as well as our culture.

  19. frednk

    The people doing the beating up, the one you’re crossing paddocks at night to avoid, are they male or female?

    The issue isn’t just pretty young women getting raped and murdered (although you think that would be something to take a little seriously) it’s male violence. Which can also be directed at men.

    So you’d also live in a safer world if the issue was tackled, which might be a nice thing.

    This is sooo like the climate change debate – people don’t want to think that their way of life has led to bad consequences – or John Howard on the apology – why should he apologise for something he wasn’t responsible for? (which was not what it was about, of course).

    Admitting there is an issue with male violence is not an admission of guilt or of personal responsibility.

  20. Thanks BK. On China, I realy wish Bishop and others would stop painting them as a bogeyman. I have no wish to see Australia fight a war with them. They have serious problems with human rights and corruption. So does the United States. They also threaten bankrupt countres they loan money to. So do US banks. Read what happened to all the Latin and South American countries that borrowed from USA in the 70s. I would prefer that we had a foreign policy more independent of both.

    Have a good day all. I wonder how Turnbull and the media will spin the Liberal branch brawl? Expect to see a story on Albanese’s leadership aspirations very soon.

  21. How sad for Turnbull and the L/NP:

    School sectors in funding strike
    Education Minister Simon Birmingham’s $24.5 billion schools package is facing a backlash from all three key education sectors.


    Dual threat to energy guarantee
    Labor and a backbench revolt led by Tony Abbott may undermine plans for legislated emissions cuts on the electricity sector.

  22. Morning all.

    Trump has separate detention facilities for the under 10s! And what does he propose doing with these children, presupposing their parents are headed to jail?

    Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    8m8 minutes ago
    As bipartisan outrage grows, insight into a TX detention facility for immigrant children under 10 years old @CNNValencia reports @TheLeadCNN

  23. It is the height of dishonesty to peddle ipsa dixits like this:

    [It surprised some commentators that this motion came from the Young Liberal Movement, but it is the view of many young Australians that the ABC has crept well beyond its mission statement and well past its expiration date in a world of technology driven media saturation.]

  24. ‘Do you speak out against your friends and colleagues when they harass or abuse women? Do you challenge sexist comments in your peer groups? Do you raise your boys to do the same things? Do you call out your mates’ misogynist views? Do you listen when women talk about our experiences with gendered violence and resist the urge to explain them back to us or tell us we’re wrong?

    Do you insist on carrying 50 per cent of the domestic workload at home, and track whether or not this is actually happening? Do you do your equal share of the parenting? Do you talk to your sons about consent and respect?’

  25. A list of physical requirements for border staff tasked with supervising children removed from their families.


  26. This bit from Bagshaw reminded me why I choked on my weet bix listening to RN 7.30 news yesterday. Introducing an item on tax cuts the news reader type lead in with describing the government as wanting to ‘slash” income tax. Slash , sounds Yuuge eh ? Could have sworn it was SFA. for the large majority. And so it is…………..

    This year, it will cost $360 million when low-to-middle income taxpayers get an average tax cut of $135. Next year, most workers will get a boost worth a milkshake and a burger a week.

  27. Do you listen when women talk about our experiences with gendered violence and resist the urge to explain them back to us or tell us we’re wrong?

    Or shout at them, swear at them and call them names? All three of which I was subjected to last night for having the temerity of stating precisely the same things that article states.

  28. grimace
    ‘ An opportunity to have an open discussion about a very serious matter has been lost.’
    I agree.
    IMO, the opportunity was lost the moment some posters carelessly or perhaps deliberately started accusatory sentences with ‘Men…’ in the sense of ‘all men’.
    Some of the men objected to accusations against them. The accusations ranged from being lumped with rapists and murderers, through to accusations that they aided and abetted rapists and murderers by their silence, through to accusations that they were not concerned about the issues of respect for women.
    When those men objected they were rounded upon as if the issue was all about them, that they did not care, that they were selfish, etc, etc, etc. In other words the men who spoke up in self defence against some very scurrilous accusations were damned if they did, and damned if they did not. The result, IMO, there was a lot of pointless blame gaming which, one way or another, wasted most of the energy on Bludger last night in terms of moving anything useful in the right direction.
    There were some very confused (IMHO) discussions about safety in public and private places as it applies to men and women.
    Apart from that, there was the usual joy of the fight among some posters who got down and dirty with each other.
    Did the earth move for them? I don’t know and I don’t really care.

  29. Confessions @ #41 Tuesday, June 19th, 2018 – 8:26 am

    Do you listen when women talk about our experiences with gendered violence and resist the urge to explain them back to us or tell us we’re wrong?

    Or shout at them, swear at them and call them names? All three of which I was subjected to last night for having the temerity of stating precisely the same things that article states.

    And #MeToo for daring to support you, as well as pointing out some very suspect claims by a certain Bully Boy poster here.

    Well, I, for one, won’t be intimidated or humiliated into silence, and I’m glad that Confessions and zoomster won’t be either.

  30. Boer

    In the past, when I’ve objected to the designation ‘man’ to be used to describe all humans, I’ve been told that it’s a generic term.

    Now I find it’s not only specific to one sex, but is signifies personal responsibility.

    You must really get upset by phrases like ‘man made global warming’.

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