The Australian Electoral Commission has published the finalised boundaries for the redistribution of Victoria, occasioned by the state’s gain of a thirty-eighth seat. The main changes from the draft published in April are of nomenclature: Batman will now be called Cooper, in honour of William Cooper, an Aboriginal leader of the late nineteenth and early twentieth century; and Corangamite will not be renamed Cox, as earlier proposed. It was surprising they didn’t get Batman right the first time, given their enthusiasm for changing names elsewhere (the changes of McMillan and Murray to Monash and Nicholls respectively have been confirmed) and the political sensibilities of the electorate in question. Minor adjustments have been made to 25 of the 38 seats compared with the draft, none of which is electorally consequential. Ben Raue at The Tally Room has published a set of estimated margins, and my own will follow in due course. Finalisation of the other two redistributions, in South Australia and Australian Capital Territory, will presumbly follow in very short order. Their completion will remove an obstacle to the calling of an early election, which it is increasingly being suggested might be on the cards for later in the year.
Can we please keep this thread on topic please – the main thread is still the one on the post below.
I generally supported the original proposals, so I’m pleased to see that there’s virtually no change here. It’s also good to see that a lot of the ‘Independent’ Objections got up; with more of us around these days, it does seem the AEC is more willing to listen to our proposals over those of the major parties.
While the immediate effect of the boundaries is to improve Labor’s position, I think longer term that this pattern of seats will be favourable for the Liberals. Most of Labor’s good areas in the south-east are now contained in one seat (Bruce), while the Liberal vote in Glen Waverley and the bayside suburbs is now “unlocked”.
I wonder if Shorten will end up jumping ship to Fraser. Maribyrnong is still ‘fairly safe’ but he wouldn’t want any more Liberal or Green territory being brought into it. Fraser would be rock solid Labor with no chance of even a remote threat by the Liberals or the Greens.
Accounting for the redistribution, I can only see Labor likely gaining Corangamite and Latrobe. Latrobe because of the addition of fast growing and Labor voting Pakenham.
If there is a sizable swing to Labor in Victoria, then Casey and Chisholm would be close or even be Labor gains.
Although Macnamara is a Labor seat the Liberals or Greens could gain, especially if either the either can preselect a good candidate.
I would say it’s a safe bet Dunkley (where I live) under the new boundaries will go Labor. Peta Murphy was within a few thousands votes last time – taking out the wealthy conservative retirees of Mornington and giving them to already safe-Lib seat of Flinders will make it a pretty safe gain, probably in the region of 5-10% margin.
I can see RWNJ wailing and gnashing of teeth on the renaming of Batman. Just because.
Victoria is probably on track to gain another seat for the election after this one. So any pronouncements about the long-term nature of the seats may be short-lived, I suspect. The AEC may have a little less moving around that it’ll be required to do than this redistribution, only being spaced by 3 years or so, but there will likely still be some significant changes.
WA has basically already lost the seat that it gained for the 2016 election. Of course, this won’t be in time for the upcoming election, but the one after that. There is an outside chance that NT will go down to a single seat.
The 2 standard deviations rule makes it harder for the NT to loose its second seat.
Yes, it does. Together with the two standard deviations, NT’s entitlement at the time of the last determination (a year ago) would have been 1.547. It is currently 1.533.
If we have a late election (e.g. May 2019), then a June 2020 determination — i.e. in another two years — would mean that the NT is a chance to fall below 1.5, although it is not likely.
So we won’t have a member for Cox? I must say I’m disappointed.