Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

After a spike to Labor a fortnight ago, it’s back to business as usual in the latest Essential Research poll, which also finds Donald Trump slightly less unpopular with Australians than he was a year ago.

Labor’s two-point gain in last fortnight’s Essential Research poll has proved to be an aberration, with the latest result snapping back to 52-48. This is matched by the primary votes, on which the Coalition is up two to 38% and Labor down two to 35% (we will have to wait for the full report later today to see how the minor parties have gone). According to The Guardian’s report, the poll also finds 50% favouring Labor’s tax policy over the Coalition, with the result for the latter not stated, except of course that it’s lower; 79% supporting the first stage of the government’s tax cuts, targeting lower and middle income earners, but only 37% for stage three, whereby the tax scales will be flattened to the advantage of higher income earners; support and opposition for company tax cuts tied at 39% apiece; support for higher finding for the ABC, though we will have to wait for hard data on which areas of the broadcaster’s activities were most favoured.

Other questions relate to international matters, with 35% responding that the North Korea summit would make the world safer, 8% less safe, and 41% no difference. On foreign leaders, Justin Trudeau (up nine on last year) and Jacinda Ardern (on debut) both scored 54% approval, and if I’m reading this correctly, Theresa May scored 42% (up nine) and Donald Trump 22% (up six) – I believe other leaders will have been canvassed as well, but further results will have to wait.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential here – the Greens are up one to 11%, and One Nation down one to 7%. Further international leadership approval ratings include a 43% for Angela Merkel, unchanged on last year, 42% for Emmanuel Macron, up one, 19% for Vladimir Putin, up three, and, if you could credit it, 9% for Kim Jong-Un. Fortuitously, this comes as the Lowy Institute publishes results of a survey of 1200 respondents on Australian attitudes to the world, which similarly finds high levels of confidence for Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron, and low ones for Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un.

Also out today is further results from the Newspoll in The Australian, finding Malcolm Turnbull favoured by 47% as best leader to handle the asylum seeker issue (down five from December) and Bill Shorten on 30% (up two). It also finds 26% expecting Labor will “improve the policy”, 37% that it will “open the floodgates”, and 24% that it will make no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,271 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Edwina StJohn @ #3180 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:50 pm

    I hereby move – for a consistent and repetitive history of nasty personal attacks ( B.B. uses viagra because he has erectile dysfunction and Barnaby Joyce was going to exploit his brothers cancer death as the most recent example) that @ person be sent down the poop chute with bemused.

    Nah. BB was pretty far out of line too that night.

    And Joyce did exploit his affair to the tune of $150k. It doesn’t exactly seem unreasonable to assert that he’d be willing to exploit other personal matters in a similar fashion.

    I move that the examples you’ve chosen are unconvincing and ineffective.

  2. I think all taken with all a not unexpected result in Darling Range. but, seems the Libs did not get all their vote back and are substantially down on where they were before fwarking up with the PHON deal.

    I think anyone who wants to assign “federal implications’ to this one is just being a dick.

  3. Thanks ar. And not to mention what that particular commenter has said repeatedly about me. You’d think they’d be embarrassed, or self-aware enough to realise people might remember that. But no, just brazen.

  4. After 2016 federal elections till New England by-election, LNP did not win a single election. Since New England by-election, LNP did not loose a single election.

  5. Turnbull’s comment to get a better job parrots Sukkar’s comment that if you want to buy a house get a better job

    Or, in the Australia of today, get yet another part time or casual job to go with your other part time and casual jobs

  6. @Ven

    Each election has its own dynamics. Another way of looking at it would be a 16 years old SA Labor government managing to improve 2PP.

    Tasmania itself was a special case with a different electoral system, a massive pokies lobby effort, and Libs outspending 10-1.

    Each by-election has its own issues, candidates, minor parties etc.

    Best to look at bludgertrack + Kevin Bonham’s polling aggregate and make an educated guess to what next election may turn out to be, which in the end is impossible to know.

  7. I think all taken with all a not unexpected result in Darling Range. but, seems the Libs did not get all their vote back and are substantially down on where they were before fwarking up with the PHON deal.

    To be honest Labor really didn’t deserve to win given the party’s monumental stuff ups over candidate preselection.

    But still, it would’ve been good to retain the seat in any case.

  8. If I may post this in relation to a post from Boomy1 with concerns for Bemused, he sent me this direct message.

    “Could you be so kind as to reassure boomy1 that I am fine and that his concerns are not soundly based?

    I have plenty of connections to society and PB was mainly a distraction while doing other stuff on my computer.

    I am OK with boomy1 having my email address if he/she wants it.

    I am only posting this so Boomy1 is not worried, it will not be an ongoing practice.

  9. Edwina,
    You do know that calling for people to be banned on this blog is one of the fastest ways to get yourself banned?

    Other than suggesting pineapple on pizzza. Or was that another place?

  10. Right wing propaganda has always portrayed Shorten’s admirable response to the Beaconsfield collapse as negatively as possible. Even the doco/movie got in a slur about Bill Shorten. He was there quickly. he reacted and responded faster than than the gov’t. He made sure the families got information and were looked after. The union was there doing its job and Shorten was doing his. He did not need an invitation. He iimmediately went where he was needed.

    Now I know we can’t have an Union leader getting any kudos for helping during a workplace disaster so Shorten has been recast as an exploiter. Plenty have been willing to buy into and spread this Libshit.
    Shame on them.

  11. NowThis‏Verified account @nowthisnews · 7h7 hours ago

    Justin Trudeau says Canada legalized weed to protect children, protect communities, and keep $6 billion of profits away from organized crime

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