Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

After a spike to Labor a fortnight ago, it’s back to business as usual in the latest Essential Research poll, which also finds Donald Trump slightly less unpopular with Australians than he was a year ago.

Labor’s two-point gain in last fortnight’s Essential Research poll has proved to be an aberration, with the latest result snapping back to 52-48. This is matched by the primary votes, on which the Coalition is up two to 38% and Labor down two to 35% (we will have to wait for the full report later today to see how the minor parties have gone). According to The Guardian’s report, the poll also finds 50% favouring Labor’s tax policy over the Coalition, with the result for the latter not stated, except of course that it’s lower; 79% supporting the first stage of the government’s tax cuts, targeting lower and middle income earners, but only 37% for stage three, whereby the tax scales will be flattened to the advantage of higher income earners; support and opposition for company tax cuts tied at 39% apiece; support for higher finding for the ABC, though we will have to wait for hard data on which areas of the broadcaster’s activities were most favoured.

Other questions relate to international matters, with 35% responding that the North Korea summit would make the world safer, 8% less safe, and 41% no difference. On foreign leaders, Justin Trudeau (up nine on last year) and Jacinda Ardern (on debut) both scored 54% approval, and if I’m reading this correctly, Theresa May scored 42% (up nine) and Donald Trump 22% (up six) – I believe other leaders will have been canvassed as well, but further results will have to wait.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential here – the Greens are up one to 11%, and One Nation down one to 7%. Further international leadership approval ratings include a 43% for Angela Merkel, unchanged on last year, 42% for Emmanuel Macron, up one, 19% for Vladimir Putin, up three, and, if you could credit it, 9% for Kim Jong-Un. Fortuitously, this comes as the Lowy Institute publishes results of a survey of 1200 respondents on Australian attitudes to the world, which similarly finds high levels of confidence for Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron, and low ones for Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un.

Also out today is further results from the Newspoll in The Australian, finding Malcolm Turnbull favoured by 47% as best leader to handle the asylum seeker issue (down five from December) and Bill Shorten on 30% (up two). It also finds 26% expecting Labor will “improve the policy”, 37% that it will “open the floodgates”, and 24% that it will make no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,271 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Exactly Nicko…the first words in the copy were …’the opposition claims…..’ FMD

    Oh, you’re a twit boomy1……well according to your Lib mates.,…sheesh, you remind me of a bloke called Frank from PB years ago……..

  2. On the subject of steps, you might want to try the Giant Stairway near Katoomba about 105 km West of Sydney. A total of 998* steps for a descent of about 500 feet (160 metres) down the cliffs and steep slopes into Jameson Valley.

    * surely they could have squeezed in another couple of steps.

  3. I think mundo had his tongue firmly planted in his cheek.was n

    I beg to differ C@tmomma. He was nailed by another poster who appears in Le Carre stories (lol) as a concern troll recently. I posted a couple of his little squeals last night. Mundo is to Labor as Billy Bragg is to the Conservatives. Of course, if you know for certain that this is not true. Please advise.

  4. * surely they could have squeezed in another couple of steps.

    Obviously they weren’t counting when they put them in! 😀

  5. PB Alert.
    Apparently someone called boomy1 doesn’t get sarcasm and, I suspect struggles with irony. Subtitles may be required for some posts.

  7. boomy1,
    I don’t know but it just read that way to me. I do think some other comments at other times have been a bit concern trollish though. 🙂

  8. lizzie,
    It’s up to you what you do but the blog is better off without bemused.
    Honestly, I’m not surprised he has emailed you. He’ll email anyone in his quest to get back here and use them as a stalking horse for his cause. But I know you are smarter than to let that happen. 🙂

  9. Nicholas @ #3130 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 6:40 pm

    I don’t often agree with Mumble, but IMO he’s spot on here

    Peter Brent always, always says that it is bad for Oppositions to be a “large target” (aka stand for something). He endows that claim with a false sense of scientific precision. I say that because the number of federal elections in Australian history is very small to serve as an object of statistical analysis and the role of specific contextual and historical factors in each election outcome is very large. Consequently, it isn’t meaningful to deduce a general law about how a political party wins government from opposition. It really just depends on the context and the relative strengths of the contenders.

    Shorter Nicholas is “Feel the force Luke”.

  10. So when a challenge to Turnbull comes, the press gallery is going to feign complete shock and astonishment. If it hasn’t be speculated it hasn’t really happened.
    Whereas for Labor if it is speculated then it is happening – for real.

  12. Rex Douglas @ #3161 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:40 pm

    Deputy Labor leader Tanya Plibersek has batted away questions about a speech delivered by her colleague Anthony Albanese last night, saying she has been too busy to read it.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-23/tanya-plibesek-has-not-read-anthony-albanese-whitlam-speech/9902162?section=politics

    Seems Plibersek has abandoned the Labor left to preserve her position as Deputy Leader.

    Yeah right. Says a random numpty from Victoria.

    *concern troll alert* For real.

  14. On the subject of steps, you might want to try the Giant Stairway near Katoomba about 105 km West of Sydney. A total of 998* steps for a descent of about 500 feet

    Nice. Just over in the Grose Valley is the Lockleys Pylon down to Govetts Ck then back up the other side. An elevation change of 1km in about 3km horizontal (from memory). Pack light.

  15. Jeez perhaps we need a separate thread for people to whine about bemused.

    He’s gone, hopefully permanently. Move on.

  16. C@tmomma @ #2054 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:41 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #3161 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:40 pm

    Deputy Labor leader Tanya Plibersek has batted away questions about a speech delivered by her colleague Anthony Albanese last night, saying she has been too busy to read it.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-23/tanya-plibesek-has-not-read-anthony-albanese-whitlam-speech/9902162?section=politics

    Seems Plibersek has abandoned the Labor left to preserve her position as Deputy Leader.

    Yeah right. Says a random numpty from Victoria.

    *concern troll alert* For real.

    And here I was thinking Williams plea for the personal attacks and bullying to end might cut through…

  18. Mundo (AnonBlock)
    Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:54 pm
    Comment #911
    No, Labor will not win the next election I’m afraid.
    Everything is lining up for a fecking come from behind win for the Tories.

    Yes.
    Consistent with your misery guts theme.
    Typical troll.
    If you aren’t, and you a genuine supporter or is even tolerant of the ALP and what might be progressive, just say so.

  20. Shocking stuff from Albo. 😉

    Mr Albanese also used the oration to encourage his party to keep providing policy direction.

    “We must never make the mistake of hoping to slide into government off the back of our opponents’ failures,” he said.

    He said it was not good enough to campaign on the platform “elect us because the other mob are useless”
    .

    “Labor doesn’t have to agree with business on issues such as company tax rates,” he said.

    But Mr Albanese did call for his party to emulate the Hawke and Keating approach and “collaborate with unions, the business sector and civil society to achieve positive outcomes in the national interest”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-23/tanya-plibesek-has-not-read-anthony-albanese-whitlam-speech/9902162

  22. ‘Going through hell’ at the border: parents split from children tell of anguish
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jun/22/going-through-hell-at-the-border-parents-split-from-children-tell-of-anguish?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Meanwhile no indication from the govt about how it intends to either locate or return stolen children to their families.

    This is an omnishambles of Trump’s own making, and per usual he accepts no responsibility for it.

  23. I hereby move – for a consistent and repetitive history of nasty personal attacks ( B.B. uses viagra because he has erectile dysfunction and Barnaby Joyce was going to exploit his brothers cancer death as the most recent example) that @ person be sent down the poop chute with bemused.

  24. poroti @ #2062 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:48 pm

    Shocking stuff from Albo. 😉

    Mr Albanese also used the oration to encourage his party to keep providing policy direction.

    “We must never make the mistake of hoping to slide into government off the back of our opponents’ failures,” he said.

    He said it was not good enough to campaign on the platform “elect us because the other mob are useless”
    .

    “Labor doesn’t have to agree with business on issues such as company tax rates,” he said.

    But Mr Albanese did call for his party to emulate the Hawke and Keating approach and “collaborate with unions, the business sector and civil society to achieve positive outcomes in the national interest”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-23/tanya-plibesek-has-not-read-anthony-albanese-whitlam-speech/9902162

    Just not worthy of Ms Pliberseks attention…

  25. Edwina StJohn @ #2065 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:50 pm

    I hereby move – for a consistent and repetitive history of nasty personal attacks ( B.B. uses viagra because he has erectile dysfunction and Barnaby Joyce was going to exploit his brothers cancer death as the most recent example) that @ person be sent down the poop chute with bemused.

    It wouldn’t be fair on Bemused if others were allowed to blatantly continue to abuse and bully.

  27. Confessions

    As she said “Ms Plibersek said …………….”I’ve known him for a long time, I’m pretty clear on what he’s probably got to say. It’s probably what he says every day.”

  31. I agree that CA needs a clean out from the Chair down

    The pay dispute showed that

    Absent Cummins (and I put his name first for a reason), Starc, Pattinson and Hazelwood and recognising we do not have a quality spin bowler (Lyon is as best a Yardley/Miller clone lacking the skills and variations of a Mallett) our attack is threadbare ex Stanlake who has a way to go

    Richardson is in competition with Sayers, Mennie, Worrall and Winter for a Shield spot for SA so is not a guaranteed Shield performer

    Hence our bowlers struggle – big time

    On the batting front Finch’s record says he is exclusively a short form player and Marsh with his number of recalls confirms his inconsistency

    The only positive with our batting is Head, as a Test middle order performer

    We eventually get Smith and Warner to build around

    Carey is an excellent keeper and can bat – so the future post Paine

    Langer?

    Just does not impress me – as the record of WA absent 20/20 attests plus he is WA centric (M Marsh as Captain is the equal to the Poms with Brieley as a non playing Captain – he was not up to Test standard?)

    One of the problems is the number of older players at Shield level because of salary including going from State to State hence stifling youth

    SA is the only State which concentrates on local youth – after a disastrous period importing players under Berry as Coach and learning the lesson

  33. poroti:

    LOL.

    On a related point, I’ve always said the time when Labor really should’ve been defending the Hawke/Keating years was in the wake of the 1996 election.

  34. Confessions

    Yep, it pissed me off that they did not immediately challenge the bullshit claims of the Howard government and thus allowed the lies to become the accepted ‘wisdom’. Grrrrrrrrrrr.

  37. Edwina StJohn @ #3173 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:50 pm

    I hereby move – for a consistent and repetitive history of nasty personal attacks ( B.B. uses viagra because he has erectile dysfunction and Barnaby Joyce was going to exploit his brothers cancer death as the most recent example) that @ person be sent down the poop chute with bemused.

    How they hanging?

  38. What are the stats on the current tour, presumably the non WA 6 are the best performing bats and bowlers by a long long way?

  41. As I said before boomy1 reminds me of an old PB poster called Frank.
    His/her most recent post confirms it. Twit.

    Frank Calabrese would have asked the same question I’m asking you.
    Are you a ALP supporter or a supporter of progressive politics in Australia?
    Yes or No?
    I care in so far as if you are’nt, don’t make out you are.

  43. boomy1 @ #3191 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 8:08 pm

    As I said before boomy1 reminds me of an old PB poster called Frank.
    His/her most recent post confirms it. Twit.

    Frank Calabrese would have asked the same question I’m asking you.
    Are you a ALP supporter or a supporter of progressive politics in Australia?
    Yes or No?
    I care in so far as if you are not, don’t make out you are.

    I doubt Frank would have used as mayn words!

  44. alan rusbridgerVerified account@arusbridger
    1h1 hour ago
    “Fuck business!” – our foreign secretary on the Brexit anxieties of UK PLC. The unsackable in pursuit of the unspeakable.

    :large

  45. Speaking of former posters, does anyone remember Glen, the Liberal guy who was posting here during the 2007 election? I wonder what happened to him?

  46. Rex Douglas @ #3166 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:44 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2054 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:41 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #3161 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:40 pm

    Deputy Labor leader Tanya Plibersek has batted away questions about a speech delivered by her colleague Anthony Albanese last night, saying she has been too busy to read it.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-23/tanya-plibesek-has-not-read-anthony-albanese-whitlam-speech/9902162?section=politics

    Seems Plibersek has abandoned the Labor left to preserve her position as Deputy Leader.

    Yeah right. Says a random numpty from Victoria.

    *concern troll alert* For real.

    And here I was thinking Williams plea for the personal attacks and bullying to end might cut through…

    Snowflake as well.

  47. C@tmomma @ #2088 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 8:14 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #3166 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:44 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2054 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:41 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #3161 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:40 pm

    Deputy Labor leader Tanya Plibersek has batted away questions about a speech delivered by her colleague Anthony Albanese last night, saying she has been too busy to read it.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-23/tanya-plibesek-has-not-read-anthony-albanese-whitlam-speech/9902162?section=politics

    Seems Plibersek has abandoned the Labor left to preserve her position as Deputy Leader.

    Yeah right. Says a random numpty from Victoria.

    *concern troll alert* For real.

    And here I was thinking Williams plea for the personal attacks and bullying to end might cut through…

    Snowflake as well.

    Why do you disrespect William ?

  48. Albo makes a speech and talks policy, essentially complimentary. MSM lights leadershit skyrockets.

    Abbott mouths off day in day out, week in week out, with combative govt policy sabotaging. Not a hint or word about instability.

  50. Today I'll visit the Al-Baqa'a refugee camp which was first created in 1968, where 100,000 Palestinians live.The next Labour government will recognise Palestine as a state as one step towards a genuine two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict.https://t.co/eyKgvGCAGo— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) June 23, 2018

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