Labor’s two-point gain in last fortnight’s Essential Research poll has proved to be an aberration, with the latest result snapping back to 52-48. This is matched by the primary votes, on which the Coalition is up two to 38% and Labor down two to 35% (we will have to wait for the full report later today to see how the minor parties have gone). According to The Guardian’s report, the poll also finds 50% favouring Labor’s tax policy over the Coalition, with the result for the latter not stated, except of course that it’s lower; 79% supporting the first stage of the government’s tax cuts, targeting lower and middle income earners, but only 37% for stage three, whereby the tax scales will be flattened to the advantage of higher income earners; support and opposition for company tax cuts tied at 39% apiece; support for higher finding for the ABC, though we will have to wait for hard data on which areas of the broadcaster’s activities were most favoured.
Other questions relate to international matters, with 35% responding that the North Korea summit would make the world safer, 8% less safe, and 41% no difference. On foreign leaders, Justin Trudeau (up nine on last year) and Jacinda Ardern (on debut) both scored 54% approval, and if I’m reading this correctly, Theresa May scored 42% (up nine) and Donald Trump 22% (up six) – I believe other leaders will have been canvassed as well, but further results will have to wait.
UPDATE: Full results from Essential here – the Greens are up one to 11%, and One Nation down one to 7%. Further international leadership approval ratings include a 43% for Angela Merkel, unchanged on last year, 42% for Emmanuel Macron, up one, 19% for Vladimir Putin, up three, and, if you could credit it, 9% for Kim Jong-Un. Fortuitously, this comes as the Lowy Institute publishes results of a survey of 1200 respondents on Australian attitudes to the world, which similarly finds high levels of confidence for Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron, and low ones for Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un.
Also out today is further results from the Newspoll in The Australian, finding Malcolm Turnbull favoured by 47% as best leader to handle the asylum seeker issue (down five from December) and Bill Shorten on 30% (up two). It also finds 26% expecting Labor will “improve the policy”, 37% that it will “open the floodgates”, and 24% that it will make no difference.
“I think you are right WWP. Maybe if the entire squad and coaching staff, selectors, the CA board and their tea lady is from West Australia….”
Well that gendered tea person is totally unacceptable but the rest of the suggestion has real merit.
*unsubscribes from the ABC Party Room Podcast*
C@tmomma: “I’ve heard that Bill Shorten was in America at the time of the Beaconsfield mine collapse and was prevailed upon to come down to Tasmania to be the point man for the families. Dick Pratt offered him his private jet to be able to do so asap.”
Well, I respect both you and zoomster as having access to reliable sources within the ALP world, so perhaps I should consider myself to stand corrected.
However, I would observe that, even if I’m wrong and he had been invited to Beaconsfield, he certainly did go on to milk the opportunity for all it was worth. Which turned me off him for a while.
But, don’t worry, I’m quite fond of him these days.
Confessions, in the Dandenongs east of Melbourne we have the 1,000 steps commemorating the Kokoda track. When I went up, I counted some 776 steps! Somebody was gilding the lily!
I was all by myself on the climb. Now it is packed everyday. It became very popular after AFL players used it to condition themselves for a crossing of the real Kokoda track. It just goes to show you the selling power of celebrity.
A little piece on the Uber Tuber.
PeeBee:
I’m very thankful that at any given time here it’s always easy to find an unpopulated stretch of coastline or bush trail.
Am I alone in thinking that the SBS soccer show every night is a bit weird with only Craig Foster and a talking head. No other experts. It’s as if Les and Johnny have gone to heaven (though Les’ books are on the table) and Craig is the last remaining prophet of football on earth.
Not sure how true this is. Sadly, if Dutton is challenging, my heart would have to support Turnbull (unless someone else other then Abbott pops up).
This may sound weird to some but I am concerned for bemused.
If William could send me his email that would be cool.
I get the feeling he thinks he is a disenfranchised man, and essentially worthless.
Poll Bludger was his connection to a society that he was a player in, then suddenly he’s not.
Please don’t argue the point with me and it’s entirely up to William if he does or not.
Anton, you are not alone.
Having said that, Craig is earnest.
boomy1
I assure you that Bemused is his usual self. We have exchanged emails.
I always wonder why Turnbull continually panders to his right wing.
It must the spoken ( or unspoken) threat from Dutton.
Has Victoria posted since she’s been overseas?
She is a PBer who is genuinely missed.
Thank you for that lizzie. Just sayin’ that’s all.
Anton……….As a football fan, Lucy Zelic is no “talking head”. She knows more about football than most male journalists in Aus. Her brother played for Australia. She commentates and analyizes the A league, she knows her stuff…….just sayin’.
“The end is beginning for the LNP.
@auspo #LibSpill #ItsOn”
Turnbull’s vulnerability has been a factor for ages, but the media constantly seeks to play it down and ignore it.
But, they jump on ANYTHING that may in the fevered minds of the Liberals indicate that ANYONE in the ALP may even have had the thought of displacing Shorten, and play it up.
Albo did a good speech, the man is ALWAYS worth listening to. Does that mean he is shaping up the challenge Shorten? Nope, he is contributing as a senior figure in the ALP should.
FFS, if Shorten got hit by a bus tomorrow the ALP has the depth of competence on their front bench to carry on being an effective opposition and a real chance to be the next Govt. And that terrifies the Libs i think.
Shorten will lead the ALP into the next election. The alternatives on the ALP front bench are too smart precipitate another round of the RGR Wars and revisit that history before the next election. As much as the Libs and a lazy media would like them too.
My opinion of the Trump visit?? Isn’t he going to England before that? If that goes pear shaped i doubt he’ll come to Australia. And if he does come to Oz i doubt there will be any gain in it for the Libs.
Even if Turnbull does a grovel, Trump will say or do something that puts him on the spot and fwarks it up.
Yes Victoria has posted, from Italy.
She has been banned from talking about their summer.
On Italy, I read in the SMH today, the government may be under threat, much more than usual. People there are discussing politics, and what if anything should be done. This is of course in the absence of Italy from the World Cup.
So according the Pine, Albanese is pro business whilst Shorten isn’t…. yeah makes alot of sense!
And the ABC is constantly replaying it uncritically… yep left wing biased for sure!
Thanks JohnR. I’m sure she’s having a blast!
lizzie
Good to hear you are still in touch with your ‘computer technician”.
poroti
He has given me some useful advice which I have yet to act on. 🙂
boomy1 @ #3107 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 6:07 pm
Nice thoughts Boomyi
I have his email but get it from William if you can – I think William only has an old one for me.
Likewise , Coorey in the AFR wrote up Albanese:
Opposition frontbencher Anthony Albanese has challenged his party’s toxic relationship with business, saying the best Labor governments work with all interest groups for the good of the nation, rather than sow discord.
“Likewise , Coorey in the AFR wrote up Albanese:
Opposition frontbencher Anthony Albanese has challenged his party’s toxic relationship with business, saying the best Labor governments work with all interest groups for the good of the nation, rather than sow discord.”
In one of my non-blogging lives I have access to a good cross-section of the big ‘business’ world, and if Albo really thinks there is any value in trying to work with big business, he is less than 1/100th of the man I think he is, and he makes Trump supporters, and those on the ‘Shorten bad’ bandwagon, look like intellectual leaders.
At the small business end I’ve always said Labor is a much better fit, but neither Labor nor most actual small business see it that way.
Ignoring the main point for a minute and just focussing on the statement. I would normally agree but discord has already been sown, class warfare has begun – and the working and middle classes would be insane to sit idly by as their well-being and power is sucked out of them.
I’m confused. I thought Bill Shorten toadied to the business community and did his workers in? 🙂
Disregard my second from last then thanks WB.
Phrases like “bipartisanship” and “working together” are always a one way street when demanded of Labor.
I’ve never seen anyone ask that the current government work nicely with any of the people they’ve gone deliberately out of their way to alienate.
Good evening all,
Albanese gave a speech, said what everyone in labor has been saying for months and the MSM hyperventilate. Big deal.
The WA by election tonight (the one that was so important for the Libs they refused to face up in Perth and Freemantle ), Shorten will present legislation on Monday to reverse the penalty rate cuts that will come in less than a week , the coalition will oppose the legislation while at the same time giving themselves a $7000 tax cut and the Banking RC resumes in Brisbane looking into how farmers were thrown off their properties, how indigenous communities were targeted by financial institutions etc etc while at the same time Turnbull wants to give the banks a $17 billion tax cut.
Albo who ?
Cheers.
Peter Brent always, always says that it is bad for Oppositions to be a “large target” (aka stand for something). He endows that claim with a false sense of scientific precision. I say that because the number of federal elections in Australian history is very small to serve as an object of statistical analysis and the role of specific contextual and historical factors in each election outcome is very large. Consequently, it isn’t meaningful to deduce a general law about how a political party wins government from opposition. It really just depends on the context and the relative strengths of the contenders.
Yes, the likes of Pauline Hanson should be Trump’s natural supporters.
SK – Don’t get me wrong. I like Craig. He really knows his stuff and communicates well. But it’s a bit like a Papal Mass.
Ruefully, the following is the headline for tonight’s top story on the Illawarra Mercury (Fairfax) website:
The Shellharbour speech that ‘fired the starting gun’ on a Labor Leadership Contest.
I think with the application re Penalty Rates, the opposition to any wage increase at the FWC (and their government making no submission) then the comments of Business Lobby Groups aka Willox attacking the decision plus what we have witnessed so far at the Banking RC, business is toxic by its own hand and no one else’s
If Shorten is portrayed as painting business as toxic then he is only reflecting the views of the citizens of the Nation
Then, to boot and following an extended period of historically low interest rates and wages growth they want tax cuts to survive!!!!!!
Having at one time having business relationships with some of these “Captains of Commerce and Industry” some of them view that their importance means the laws of the land as they applied to me did not apply to them
That said, there were some who commanded respect and they are the ones I continue to associate with socially today – plus a few have unfortunately died although my relationships continue with their children
Yes. I agree. And way back he wasnt afraid to put the hard Q’s to Postecoglou unlike the Offsiders mob who fawned over him.
Yeah, I think the more times the views of Mumble get tested the less impressive they seem.
For that matter, I’ve never seen anyone demand that *any* group work nicely with Labor. It’s always the other way around. These are not true requests for non-partisanship, collaboration or cooperation. They are demands that Labor acquiesce.
You can’t just ask that someone work nicely with you, you also have to offer to work nicely with them. There’s no “with”, otherwise.
Prof. Higgins says:
Saturday, June 23, 2018 at 6:44 pm
….
The Shellharbour speech that ‘fired the starting gun’ on a Labor Leadership Contest.
The latest press beat-up seems to be getting a big yarn from labor; it used to be senior labor insider said; all they can drum up is Pyne; hard to pretend he knows much about defense; even harder to pretend he isa labor insider.
Re Confessions @6:41PM. Interesting article.
I think that we might be mistaken in regarding the Republicans or our “Liberal” party as conservative. They are the political wing of the big corporations – specifically those who own and run them.
These people have generally done well out of the existing order and will want to defend it, but if any aspect of it it gets in their way they won’t hesitate to tear it down. They’ll ally with the Pharisee wing of the dominant religion in their country when it suits (the ones obsessed with sex, not too fussed about the less fortunate). The restrictions that might entail will only apply to ordinary people after all. When it suits, they’ll make allies of flakey populists like Hanson or truly dangerous ones like Trump. They thought Hitler might serve them well.
I’m not sure how you would describe parties like the Republicans and Liberals. Crony capitalist perhaps.
I dont know what the fuss is about. Vic Labor work well with big business.
Transurban and Crown get everything they ask for from the Andrews government.
The Liberals having a toxic relationship with Unions, environmental groups, or anyone that isn’t a rent seeker spiv really.
Frednk – Yep, the “senior Labor insiders” seem to have disappeared with James Massola. Did he take them with him? What a remarkable co-incidence.
According to the ABCs lead story tonight the ALP are tearing themselves to shreds, Shorten is gonna be knocked off by Albo ……don’t think I can take any more of the left wing pro labor bias…..
mundo @ #3143 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:11 pm
The news item was just mind-blowingly incompetent, apart from being biased. Must have been done by the work experience kid from some very expensive private school.
Apologies if already posted, but the FDOTM is brilliant:
His modest proposal:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/23/a-humble-suggestion-on-how-to-deal-with-the-child-crisis?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=First+Dog+on+the+Moon&utm_term=278913&subid=15284682&CMP=ema_1732
Jonathan Swift’s modest proposal:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal
Is it causing you angst mundo?, pity, when labor win and you are out commiserating with your lib mates, think of times like this.
Turnbull complained about ABC being “leftwing” biased, next day ABC runs a LNP talking point as a news item… coincidence?
Haven’t the media in Australia been speculating about the Labor leadership for the last 5 years!?!
None of the hyperventilating and hyperbowl, nor the hundreds of thousands of words, has changed a damned thing.
Nor will it.
Frednk,
I’d like to think your assessment is accurate.
This calls to mind a chapter in Heller’s ‘Catch 22’ when administrative officers use a condolence form to notify next of kin when their relative has been killed in action. These MSM journos have done leadershit beat ups so often, that it’s now a quick and lazy task to fill in the blanks.
They merely scan a Labor shadow cabinet member’s speech or press release for a scintilla of variance from the party’s leader in the tone of a phrase or two. Then, they turn to SkyNews for the inevitable LNP pollie’s bulldust quote to slot into its headline. Then they polish the turd by recycling a few paragraphs of mendacity and innuendo that they wrote for previous leadershit beat ups, and finally they hoist a jar of the amber fluid in anticipation of their next Walkley Award.
boomy1 @ #3146 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 7:18 pm
boomy1,
I think mundo had his tongue firmly planted in his cheek.