BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Very slight movement back to the Coalition on the latest poll aggregate this week, with a not-quite-so-bad Newspoll providing the only new numbers.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is drifting back towards the Coalition as other pollsters fail to replicate their particularly bad result from ReachTEL a fortnight ago. There is no change on the seat projection, though this is due to the correction of an error that short-changed Labor two seats in Queensland last week. The is balanced by Coalition gains of one seat apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll’s latest numbers have taken a big chunk out of Malcolm Turnbull’s readings on the leadership trends, while Bill Shorten holds even on net approval. Enjoy all the results in detail by clicking on the image below.

Note that there’s a post below this one on Newspoll’s latest state voting intention result from Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,643 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 53
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  1. guytaur says:
    Thursday, March 8, 2018 at 10:00 am
    lizzie

    Did you miss my point about Sydney have a direct freight line to the port?

    Yes it does, however if you go past Port Botany you will see an awful lot of trucks also going to and from the port. If a container of imported goods is going to North Sydney for example, rail is not much use.

  2. @ Victoria
    “You would think the Greens would be pleased with the Andrews Govt in terms of level crossing removal, metro tunnel, euthanasia bill, medicinal cannabis, domestic violence policy etc.”

    They are pleased with those items. But they should not be expected to pass a bad policy just to thank the Government for earlier passing good ones.

    The Greens described ‘skyrail’ (i.e. the bit of the level crossing removal that some people didn’t like as “a far superior solution to what the current conditions are.” that will ” remove what was a physical barrier between the two halves of Noble Park”, although they did call for ” meaningful, comprehensive, early and continuing community consultation and the provision of clear, accurate and timely information” in future projects.

    https://greens.org.au/vic/mps/samanth-dunn/cranbourne_pakenham_elevated_rail_project

    The Greens support the Melbourne Metro, although they differed with the Government on the need for it to include South Yarra.

    The Greens compromised and voted for the Euthanasia Bill, even though it differed from their long held policy principles.

    I’m sure they’re supportive of the other two, but I’ll leave those for you to Google as I have to run.

  5. Trucks and ports. There are limitations to transporting goods from a port to a local area via rail.

    Local freight will not be put on a train to travel a few kilometres to be unloaded at a distribution centre (if it has a siding) or trucks anyway to get them to the distribution centre that don’t.

    Trucks reduce double handling.

    Trains are good for bulk stuff, like grain that is travelling a long distance.

    A lot of trucks now have side loaders that allow trucks to drop the containers wherever they are required. Trains don’t.

  6. https://newmatilda.com/2018/03/08/claytons-coal-labor-sea-policy-tackling-climate-change/

    Labor is trying to have a policy on shutting down coal and tackling climate change, without having a policy on shutting down coal or tackling climate change, writes Ben Eltham.
    :::
    For reasons of history and philosophy, Labor remains deeply wedded to fossil fuels. The ALP cares deeply about working class jobs in minerals and resources. Mining remains a unionised industry and the CFMEU one of the nation’s last remaining strong unions. For factional reasons, Shorten can’t afford to alienate the CFMEU just now. With his support base in Victoria suddenly undermined by the implosion of the so-called “stability pact”, Victorian Labor is in the midst of a dangerous internal realignment.
    :::::
    But Labor’s problems on Adani highlight a bigger problem: whether Labor is truly committed to the environment, or whether jobs in dirty industries matter more.

    While Labor has focused on the justice, many environmentalists question the ALP’s commitment to transition.
    :::
    Labor has been unable to articulate why jobs in reef tourism are somehow less important than jobs in an unbuilt coal mine. Are the scuba diving instructors and resort cleaners somehow less working class than the blokes in high-vis? For some in the ALP and the labour movement, the answer is yes.
    ::::
    If Labor wants a just transition, it needs to transition. If you can’t cancel a coal mine that hasn’t been built yet, you are not transitioning. If the ALP want a safe climate, it needs to put in place policies to shut down coal.

  7. Queensland Greens Senator and spokesperson for mining and resources, Andrew Bartlett told IA:

    “The fossil fuel industry has a stranglehold on our politics, via millions in donations and lobbyists who are often ex-ministers or high-level staffers. To stop Adani and future projects like it we need to break this stranglehold and kick the fossil fuel industry out of politics …

    … A coal mine is not the solution to unemployment in North Queensland. The policy the Greens took to the State election … would invest $15 billion over the next five years building publicly-owned clean energy and storage. It would create 5,500 jobs every year. It’s a lie that politicians are supporting this mine because they’re concerned about unemployment, their real concern is keeping the fossil fuel donations flowing and making sure they have a well-paid lobbyist job when they retire.”

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/stopping-adanis-dirty-mine-our-politicians-love-affair-with-fossil-fuels,11270

  8. victoria

    Getting annoyed with someone is not good for me, so I’m opting out. Anyone can make sweeping statements without understanding the problem. 🙁

  10. lizzie

    It took me one google search to find there is a rail solution.

    It takes 3500 trucks off the road. Not having a direct rail link will mean business will move to Sydney’s port instead.

    I don’t know why the delay. I would be putting the rail project in place first. If Andrews is doing both there may be other reasons for that, heavy trucks alone will not be the reasons for that

  11. Guytaur

    You googled the solution!
    Fmd you really are delusional.
    Anyhoo I am going to follow Lizzie and opt out of this discussion. Ain’t worth the angst.

  12. Voice Endeavour @ #101 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 10:14 am

    @ Victoria
    “You would think the Greens would be pleased with the Andrews Govt in terms of level crossing removal, metro tunnel, euthanasia bill, medicinal cannabis, domestic violence policy etc.”

    They are pleased with those items. But they should not be expected to pass a bad policy just to thank the Government for earlier passing good ones.

    The Greens described ‘skyrail’ (i.e. the bit of the level crossing removal that some people didn’t like as “a far superior solution to what the current conditions are.” that will ” remove what was a physical barrier between the two halves of Noble Park”, although they did call for ” meaningful, comprehensive, early and continuing community consultation and the provision of clear, accurate and timely information” in future projects.

    https://greens.org.au/vic/mps/samanth-dunn/cranbourne_pakenham_elevated_rail_project

    The Greens support the Melbourne Metro, although they differed with the Government on the need for it to include South Yarra.

    The Greens compromised and voted for the Euthanasia Bill, even though it differed from their long held policy principles.

    I’m sure they’re supportive of the other two, but I’ll leave those for you to Google as I have to run.

    Pfft!

    Where’s your evidence to support your nonsense assertion that the tunnel is ‘bad policy”.

    It’s hardly bad policy just because the Greens say so.

    Their alliance partners the Libs are doing themselves a big disservice by associating themselves with economic stagnation.

    The public have an appetite for economically sound infrastructure projects.

    The Greens and the Libs may be numerate at the moment. But, that can be fixed in October!

  14. Life is nothing but a dog-eat-dog game. The only value is being top dog. Winning is its own reward and the only reward. The power you gain by winning isn’t for anything else. Winners play the game undistracted by other values. All other supposed values are just means to that end. Duping others into thinking you care about other values, like welfare or making America great again, is how you play to win. Losers lose because they’re distracted by other values. To win, you need to use other people’s values against them. Other values are the loser’s handicap. You can get them to help you win by convincing them that you care about what they care about.

    Trumble.

  16. I live in the Hasluck electorate and was ReachTEL’ed last night. Someone obviously checking the vulnerability of Ken Wyatt. Not sure who owns the poll but I suspect the Liberals. Besides voting intention there were many questions on issues like wages and job security and women’s rights.

  17. Meanwhile in the very interesting life and times of Trumplandia and the Trump Imbroglio, will Meuller ramp things up even further in light of the nerve agent attack on the former Russian mole and his daughter.?
    Also, s British police officer is in a serious condition in hospital due to this attack.

  18. Victoria

    Thats your choice. It does not mean the article in the Age is wrong about a rail solution. 3500 trucks off the road is the Andrews Government goal with that solution.

    It also keeps Melbourne as the busiest port in Australia instead of Sydney becoming the solution.

    So what ever the reasons for the toll road its not only heavy vehicles alone. Thats the only conclusion I am making.

    I am not commenting on the Greens blocking only saying they must have their reasons. I think Voice Endeavour has given them.

    I have said what I think of toll roads from a Sydney perspective.
    I have not said the project should not go ahead I have argued rail freight is more efficient than heavy trucks and if that is the sole reason then rail is the solution.

  19. guytaur,

    The areas north and south of Dynon Rd are train yards servicing the Melbourne Docks.
    https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-37.8066787,144.9228987,15z

    There is no way to service the newer container terminals at the mouth of the Yarra by rail without building tunnels under the river.

    The area shown as railyards between Dynon Rd and Footscray Rd to the east of City Link was earmarked for brownfield redevelopment as E-Gate, while the empty area to the north of North Melbourne station is the location of the North Melbourne Metro station, and is part of the Arden Macauly brown fields redevelopment area. These are the brown field sites that the RMIT report is referring to.

  23. bakunin

    Then maybe Melbourne needs to take a leaf out of the West Australian tree. Build a railing down the middle of the tunnel they are building for the road.

    Two birds one stone.

  24. As for only the Greens opposing the WGT:

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-an-international-pariah-on-west-gate-tunnel-experts-warn-20171207-h00use.html

    Victorians should be able to vote on Transurban’s $5.5 billion West Gate Tunnel – an “oversized” toll road that will worsen city traffic and “damage” Melbourne’s urban area, leading experts have said.

    The academic doyennes of planning and transport in Melbourne have united to deliver a withering assessment of Transurban’s new toll road, warning that it will unwind decades of good planning in the state.
    A 30-page report backed by 28 transport and urban planners at RMIT and Melbourne University includes a letter addressed to Premier Daniel Andrews, calling for the West Gate Tunnel to be dumped.

    Report: https://www.rmit.edu.au/content/dam/rmit/documents/research/publications/west-gate-tunnel-report.pdf

  25. Pegasus

    Thanks.

    I did not realise I was actually arguing the Greens policy position.

    I was just following the arguments Anthony Albanese made from memory for the reasons for Sydney to have a direct freight link by rail to the port.

  26. The Greens opposition to the WGT was to be expected.

    The Liberals will be getting belted by their business pals and donors, though, for blocking a shovel-ready infrastructure project like this for no reason, just opposing for the sake of opposing. “WHY ARE YOU ON THE SAME SIDE AS THE GREENS?!?!?!” will be getting a workout. So will “WE DON’T DONATE $100,000 TO YOU GUYS TO SCREW OVER BUSINESS”.

    The whole state economy benefits from a project as big as the WGT. Even retail can expect trickle down from more money in more working class families’ pockets. Everyone will be pissed at the Liberals for holding it up.

    Any time the Greens and Liberals end up on the same side opposing Labor they both lose; neither groups of supporters enjoy being allied on any cause whatsoever

    @Pegasus: The trouble is that following academics too much can lead to a severe case of all talk and no building. In planning, like in economics, for every expert there is an opposite expert. Governments need to act on expert advice, yes, but you have to pick and choose who you take the advice from; if the WGT is a white elephant it will harm Labour in this state for a decade. They will be confident in the pro-tunnel advice, and hopefully their advisors are the right ones.

  27. “The difference between Dynasty and the Australian government is that one features a scandalous affair, an angry, scorned wife, a pregnant younger lover and questions over paternity. And the other is a 1980s TV show.

  28. Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 22h22 hours ago

     More

    The Abbott/Turnbull govt is the first govt since WW2 not to have two consecutive quarters where annual GDP growth was above 3%

  31. lizzie @ #75 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 9:50 am

    guytaur

    AFAIK the problem that the new road is intended to solve is 1) heavy trucks travelling through residential areas to get to the port; 2) the need for a second crossing of the river.

    Unless the geography of Melbourne is rearranged, extra trains won’t solve the problem as it is heavy vehicles which are causing the pollution and congestion and the port is kinda stuck in the bay!!.

    I personally don’t like toll roads and have managed to avoid them completely, but I live far out from central Melb.

    1) Correct, but it also provides access to the northern end of the CBD directly WITHOUT having to make a second river crossing. Yes, that’s correct, the Westgate Bridge actually takes CBD bound traffic to the WRONG side of the Yarra River and the traffic then has to cross the river again to get to the northern CBD side of the Yarra River.

    2) It has long struck me as bizarre that there is so much talk about the need for a ‘second river crossing’. Why? See 1 above.The Western suburbs are actually on the same side of the Yarra River as the CBD. The Westgate Bridge really serves to connect the Western Suburbs to the South Eastern suburbs and diverts CBD bound traffic to the wrong side of the river.

    The river that will be crossed by the new road is the Maribyrnong River, not the Yarra. Trucks will gain access to the docks and the Northern and North Eastern Suburbs. CBD (and inner suburb) bound traffic will not have to make a second crossing of the Yarra River.

    Conclusion? The Libs and Greens are barking mad!

    Yes, maybe there are better financial arrangements that could be made, but that is another argument.

  32. The Libs/Greens alliance routed easily in parliament this morning!

    Planning approvals for West Gate Tunnel are back in place, work will resume later today, @DanielAndrewsMP tells parliament. But you can barely hear him over the shouting. #springst

  34. “The Libs and Greens are barking mad!”

    So according to you these experts are “barking mad”:

    “The academic doyennes of planning and transport in Melbourne have united to deliver a withering assessment of Transurban’s new toll road, warning that it will unwind decades of good planning in the state.

    A 30-page report backed by 28 transport and urban planners at RMIT and Melbourne University includes a letter addressed to Premier Daniel Andrews, calling for the West Gate Tunnel to be dumped.”

    Report: https://www.rmit.edu.au/content/dam/rmit/documents/research/publications/west-gate-tunnel-report.pdf

  36. frednk

    The Greens logo is at the top left hand corner of the home page.

    Greens Colleen Hartland is running the campaign….she is there at top right hand corner and is running the petition….writ very large on right hand side of home page.

  37. guytaur @ #81 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 9:56 am

    Lizzie

    Heavy trucks should not be going into the city.

    Heavy Trucks should have a depot and smaller trucks should do deliveries into the city.

    Thats where trains can’t deliver straight to the destination.

    In Sydney there is a direct freight rail line to the port. So that reduces the need for trucks delivering there.

    Sydneysiders know full well the evils of the toll road. They are hated for good reason.

    If trucks are the problem trains are the solution. Every time. Trains deliver freight far more efficiently.
    One freight rail line can deliver to a depot for more freight than a fleet of trucks can

    Oh FFS Guytaur, small trucks and vans, not B-Doubles do deliver in the CBD.

    Trains are sued for interstate freight but not sufficiently. Big trucks come from all over the place where there are no railway lines.

    You are simplistic beyond believe in all your prognostications.

  38. From home page of same:

    And we can get even more trucks of local streets by putting freight onto rail. The Greens have campaigned heavily for the Port Rail Shuttle to be built, and Labor finally agreed to it in 2017. Now they just need to get on with it and build it now.

  39. Pegasus
    Have you actually read the rmit document?

    Climate change denial has had their fair share of experts claiming it isn’t real; the Greens have a publication arguing the tunnel won’t solve a problem it was never intended to solve.

    When it comes to stupidity the Greens really have excelled this time.

  40. @GG – you misunderstood my post.

    Someone was claiming that the Greens should support the new tollroad on the basis that Labor had previously done things that the Greens were happy with.

    I was pointing out that that is really not how it works, and the Greens should assess each policy on its merits. If the Greens believe the policy is bad, they should stop it. They should not support it just because they are happy voluntary euthanasia passed.

    So if you want to argue that the Greens should have supported the tollroad, you need to argue that it is a good way to meet their objectives, rather than saying “vote for the tollroad because earlier Labor policies are good”

  42. Bemused

    Thats a different argument to freight access to Melbourne Port. The argument then comes down to what is better road access to the CBD.

    That is not one I am getting involved with.

    I was only ever arguing that for freight rail is always the best solution.

    In Sydney the problem with our toll road is that it stopped short and did not go to the port and airport. Both bypass the CBD.
    The LNP were also against a direct freight line. This is why I view Mr Albanese arguments as a good guide.

    Thats why I was not arguing against the road. I can see the sense in what you are saying

  43. Port Rail Shuttle:

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/portrail-shuttle-back-on-table-to-remove-3500-trucks-off-roads-20170819-gxzu7r.html

    A project to get 3500 container trucks off the roads each day has been revived following a three-year freeze on the cash while the state government negotiated leasing the Port of Melbourne.

    The port-rail shuttle project has had $58 million in federal and state money set aside for it since 2014, but the money has remained untouched.
    ::::
    The government will soon seek expressions of interest to deliver a series of rail freight “shuttles” that will move large shipping containers between the port and freight rail terminals located around the city.

    It will use existing rail lines to the Port of Melbourne docks to transfer container freight between hubs in Altona, Somerton and Lyndhurst and the port, where a terminal would be built.

    “We need to act now to shift containers from our roads onto rail,” Mr Donnellan said.

  45. bemused @ #137 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 11:26 am

    guytaur @ #81 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 9:56 am

    Lizzie

    Heavy trucks should not be going into the city.

    Heavy Trucks should have a depot and smaller trucks should do deliveries into the city.

    Thats where trains can’t deliver straight to the destination.

    In Sydney there is a direct freight rail line to the port. So that reduces the need for trucks delivering there.

    Sydneysiders know full well the evils of the toll road. They are hated for good reason.

    If trucks are the problem trains are the solution. Every time. Trains deliver freight far more efficiently.
    One freight rail line can deliver to a depot for more freight than a fleet of trucks can

    Trains are sued for interstate freight but not sufficiently. Big trucks come from all over the place where there are no railway lines.

    So suited to interstate freight that the Petrol Companies ( I think Shell but could be wrong) stopped sending petrol to Canberra on the rail line with equipment set up to handle the petrol. They now send it Canberra via large tankers. Profit motive again rather than spending money on the rail terminal.

  49. In an ideal world, railways built in the 1850s would suit conditions over one hundred and fifty years later. At the very least, houses and buildings worth multiple millions of dollars wouldn’t get in the way of ideal solutions.

    We don’t live in that world.

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