BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Very slight movement back to the Coalition on the latest poll aggregate this week, with a not-quite-so-bad Newspoll providing the only new numbers.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is drifting back towards the Coalition as other pollsters fail to replicate their particularly bad result from ReachTEL a fortnight ago. There is no change on the seat projection, though this is due to the correction of an error that short-changed Labor two seats in Queensland last week. The is balanced by Coalition gains of one seat apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll’s latest numbers have taken a big chunk out of Malcolm Turnbull’s readings on the leadership trends, while Bill Shorten holds even on net approval. Enjoy all the results in detail by clicking on the image below.

Note that there’s a post below this one on Newspoll’s latest state voting intention result from Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,643 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. Voice Endeavour @ #139 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 11:28 am

    @GG – you misunderstood my post.

    Someone was claiming that the Greens should support the new tollroad on the basis that Labor had previously done things that the Greens were happy with.

    I was pointing out that that is really not how it works, and the Greens should assess each policy on its merits. If the Greens believe the policy is bad, they should stop it. They should not support it just because they are happy voluntary euthanasia passed.

    So if you want to argue that the Greens should have supported the tollroad, you need to argue that it is a good way to meet their objectives, rather than saying “vote for the tollroad because earlier Labor policies are good”

    Not really.

    Your point was that the tunnel was bad policy.

    No evidence supplied by you.

    So, your posturing is just nonsense.

  2. Guytaur rail can only be a small part of any solution. The majority of containers exported or imported in any city port originate or are destined for that city. Rail is not efficient for that traffic. As freight forwarder the only time I use rail is when I move FCL containers from Sydney to the Port of Brisbane for export on a shipping line that doesn’t call into Sydney.

    Speaking of Sydney I think the rail only handles about 20% of the container there and congestion & delays from truck lined up on Botany Rd has at times been so bad that we have had to divert containers to Newcastle.

  5. Everyone with a working sense of fairness please take a step back!

    The Liberal Party is putting out feelers for an new ad ad agency to help the party, led by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, hold onto its control of government.

    The party says it is looking for ‘expressions of interest’ ahead of the planned 2019 election.

    Read more at http://www.adnews.com.au/news/turnbull-s-liberal-party-looking-for-an-ad-agency-ahead-of-2019-election#76MziHRJw3mKXdmL.99

  6. kevjohnno

    Yes Sydney has a few bottlenecks.

    I think it would help freight haulers if there was also a freight line from the port to Parramatta which also linked to Moorebank.

    I agree rail only goes so far thats why I said depots for freight and smaller vehicles to take it from there.

    The only difference is one central depot for big freight instead of seperate warehouses for business in key areas.

    eg. Where there is a big warehouse for Woolworths make it a freight hub for the area

    We still do it for vegetables in Sydney with the Flemington Markets. Just something like that.
    The idea is to reduce trucks in the city as much as possible. Do note I did say there would always be trucks in the city.

  7. kevjohnno @ #152 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 7:43 am

    Guytaur rail can only be a small part of any solution. The majority of containers exported or imported in any city port originate or are destined for that city. Rail is not efficient for that traffic. As freight forwarder the only time I use rail is when I move FCL containers from Sydney to the Port of Brisbane for export on a shipping line that doesn’t call into Sydney.

    Speaking of Sydney I think the rail only handles about 20% of the container there and congestion & delays from truck lined up on Botany Rd has at times been so bad that we have had to divert containers to Newcastle.

    Especially in a Country like Australia where the vast majority of the population live near those ports.

    Decentralise the population and rail starts making more sense! 🙂

  9. guytaur @ #142 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 11:30 am

    Bemused

    Thats a different argument to freight access to Melbourne Port. The argument then comes down to what is better road access to the CBD.

    That is not one I am getting involved with.

    I was only ever arguing that for freight rail is always the best solution.

    In Sydney the problem with our toll road is that it stopped short and did not go to the port and airport. Both bypass the CBD.
    The LNP were also against a direct freight line. This is why I view Mr Albanese arguments as a good guide.

    Thats why I was not arguing against the road. I can see the sense in what you are saying

    OK, I think I get it now.
    You were not arguing what you were arguing.

  12. lizzie @ #150 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 11:41 am

    Tristan Edis‏ @TristanEdis · 3h3 hours ago

    Here I debunk the stupid ABC story that we’re right on the verge of having too much solar – https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/07/feed-in-tariffs-could-be-cut-back-from-high-take-up-of-solar-power?CMP=share_btn_tw …

    I think the stupid ABC story was a direct feed from the Grattan Institute. I used to think that they were relatively impartial, at least compared to the IPA. Not so?

  15. Bemused

    I was only ever arguing that a direct rail line to Port Melbourne makes as much sense as a direct rail line from Moorebank to Sydney’s port.

    The only other point I made is that I think we rely on trucks in the city too much when a few rail lines could fix the problem of trucks in the city. Have depots around the city. Hubs. You don’t need many. It will not eliminate trucks from the city entirely. However most will only go to the big depots. Just like the trains do. One central pickup of smaller trucks to deliver to retail shops or online deliveries.

  19. unionsaustralia: Three Billboards Outside Kelly O’Dwyer’s Office, Melbourne.

    #WeWontWait #IWD2018 #StopGBVatWork pic.twitter.com/c47iwqHixY

  23. Yep. Finally being publicly exposed. Remember Prince is brother of Betty DeVos who is in Trump cabinet. She is the Amway Queen and has investments in health, and it was the connection to server that was pinging in Trump Tower which fisa warrants picked up.
    I am gonna need a whiteboard. Lol!

    Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III has gathered evidence that a secret meeting in the Seychelles just before the inauguration of Donald Trump was an effort to establish a back channel between the incoming administration and the Kremlin — apparently contradicting statements made to lawmakers by one of its participants, according to people familiar with the matter.

    In January 2017, Erik Prince, the founder of the private security company Blackwater, met with a Russian official close to Russian President Vladi­mir Putin and later described the meeting to congressional investigators as a chance encounter that was not a planned discussion of U.S.-Russia relations.

  25. @ GG

    “Not really.

    Your point was that the tunnel was bad policy.

    No evidence supplied by you.”

    To misunderstand my post once can be regarded as misfortune; to misunderstand my post twice looks like carelessness.

  31. Mueller has evidence secret Trump transition meeting was a backchannel to Russia — contradicting adviser’s testimony: report

    A witness cooperating with special counsel Robert Mueller has revealed that a meeting just before President Donald Trump’s inauguration in the Seychelles was intended to set up a backchannel between his administration and Russia — contrary to testimony given to congressional investigators.

    The Washington Post reported Wednesday that businessman George Nader told Mueller’s team that the January 2017 meeting on the Indian ocean island between a Russian official and Erik Prince, the founder of weapons manufacturer Blackwater, was meant to establish unofficial communications between the two countries. When testifying before Congress, Prince characterized the meeting as a chance encounter.

    This story is developing …

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/mueller-evidence-secret-trump-transition-meeting-backchannel-russia-contradicting-advisers-testimony-report/

  34. Barney

    I am not against trucks in their place. I am for reducing trucks in the city as far as practical.

    My point is that a few freight hubs around a city would reduce congestion a lot. Its not that much different from now. e.g. Sydney. Port and Airport is one Hub. Parramatta. Penrith. Hurstville. Moorebank Chatswood.

  35. Guytaur not too many of the containers are delivered to or picked up from the CBD. They do go to warehouses & distribution centres now but in some cities geography & the road system forces the trucks to pass through or near the CBD causing congestion there and in the roads in suburbs near the port. This would appear to be the problem they are trying to solve in Melb.

  36. The thing with the trucks vs rail controversy is that, unless the destination of the stuff in the container is right on a rail line, at some stage a container being transported by rail has to be taken off a train and put on a truck (or the contents on multiple trucks) for final delivery. So for businesses, for something arriving at a port, it might come down to the economics of loading a container on a train, then at same point moving it from the train to a truck for the last part of the journey, or loading it straight onto a truck at the port bound for the business (or a local depot).

  37. ‘He’s got a problem either way’: MSNBC’s Ari Melber nails why Trump lawyer’s goose is cooked

    MSNBC chief legal correspondent and anchor of The Beat, Ari Melber, explained on Wednesday that it appears longtime Donald Trump lawyer Michael Cohen broke either attorney rules or the law in the “hush money” payment to former porn star Stormy Daniels.

    Melber noted that Cohen, Trump’s lawyer, may now be finding himself in hot water.

    “Under the rules that govern lawyers, Michael Cohen is not allowed to donate his own money on Trump’s behalf,” Melber noted. “So either, he was reimbursed, or he broke these rules to fund this particular payment for Trump, in other words, he’s got a problem either way.”

    And at the heart of “hush money” payments is whether Trump was compromised.

    “The prospect that is alluded to here is a president that would with a potential victim of blackmail, of extortion, of yes, foreign compromise,” Melber concluded. “This is a difficult and toxic circle to be tightening around a president, who at this hour is also under criminal investigation Bob Mueller is doing into an alleged international conspiracy.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/hes-got-problem-either-way-msnbcs-ari-melber-nails-trump-lawyers-goose-cooked/

  38. What troubles me about the Labor green wars is the lack of any objective reasoning on the part of the ALPers as to WHY there is a war in the first place.

    They are so convinced that they hold the key to happiness for all humankind that they can see no other alternative. Tot try to nudge just a few in the direction of sanity I am going to list a few issues and give party rankings on them as to their priority A, B, C, D, E, N(neutral or a Z if actively opposed. As far as possible I will try to assume that if everyone in the party agrees it gets and A if most but not all get a B.
    Now fairly obviously where both parties score an A or B then you can and should expect then always to support each other. On issues of a C/D or E flexibility and negotiation is to be expected. Occasionally where I know there is significant diversity of opinion within a party i will post a range. I will be most knowledgeable on the ALP so apologies to Greens/LNP who know of greater diversity

    Here goes. The key is to look at where there are DIFFERENCES to see where alliances should or should not lie.

    Parties
    ALP, Greens, LNP

    IR
    Improved wages and conditions for unionists : A, C, Z
    Getting rid of labour rorts eg 457s and “contractors”: B, C, Z
    Minimum wage increase: A, B, Z

    Services
    Medicare protection: A,A,Z
    Expand medicare to dentistry: B,A,Z
    Equitable fundng private schools A, D, Z

    Equity
    Taxation reform on companies: B.B,Z
    Negative gearing abolish: B, N, Z
    Increase welfare payments B, B, Z
    Tougher means testing on pensions E. C, B

    Trade
    Oppose Participate in TPP: N; B, Z
    Support Australian Industry D, n, Z

    Environment
    Support for renewables B, A, E-Z
    Oppose new coal mines (or mines) D-Z, A, Z
    Oppose Adani in particular A-Z,A, Z
    Oppose coal seam gas C-Z, A, D-Z
    Oppose logging in forests B-Z, A, Z
    Support public transport and rail: B. A, E
    Oppose new roads but pro bikeways: E, A, Z

    Civil liberties and human rights
    No offshore detention: B-Z, A, Z
    Oppose terror laws and invasion of privacy: C-Z, B, Z
    Gay rights generally: B, A, C-Z
    Multiculturalism is good and support actively: B, A, C-Z

    International issues
    Oppose US alliance and wars: C-Z, B, Z
    China is our friend: C, n, D
    Russia is evil: C, C-Z, A
    Ban the bomb n, B, Z
    Support Palestine: C-Z, A-D, Z

    What does all this actually MEAN

    Well it indicates that essentially the greens and the ALP are like minded on most economic and social equity issues. They diverge quite a bit on many environmental issues, especially where the rights of workers clash with green objectives and there are marked differences in most of the human rights , civil liberties and international issues.

  40. @GG – please read my post before criticising it.

    Victoria stated an opinion that the Greens were wrong to oppose the tunnel, because they should have been happy that Labor passed other policies that the Greens like.

    I criticised Victoria’s suggested method of decision making for the Greens, saying that they “should not be expected to pass a bad policy just to thank the Government for earlier passing good ones.” This is where I assume your reading skills have let you down. You’ll note after reading this paragraph, that what it says is that the Greens should decide about the toll road based on the merits of the toll road rather than basing their transport policy on the merits of euthanasia.”

    It does NOT say that the toll road is good. It does NOT say that the toll road is bad.

    It says that Victoria’s proposed decision making process is flawed and that if the policy is bad, the greens should not say “well, Labor did pass euthanasia so lets just vote for it anyway”..

    I realise now that there’s a good chance that English is your 2nd language. You certainly read English better than I read French, so my apologies if I offended you.

  42. In countless ways social touch is being nudged from our lives. In the UK, doctors were warned last month to avoid comforting patients with hugs lest they provoke legal action, and a government report found that foster carers were frightened to hug children in their care for the same reason. In the US the girl scouts caused a furore last December when it admonished parents for telling their daughters to hug relatives because “she doesn’t owe anyone a hug”. Teachers hesitate to touch pupils. And in the UK, in a loneliness epidemic, half a million older people go at least five days a week without seeing or touching a soul.

    Sensing this deficit, a touch industry is burgeoning in Europe, Australia and the US, where professional cuddlers operate workshops, parties and one-to-one sessions to soothe the touch-deprived.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/mar/07/crisis-touch-hugging-mental-health-strokes-cuddles?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=266609&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632

  43. The first legal actions over water use breaches in NSW have begun just as the Berejiklian government was due to cop a spray from the Ombudsman over misleading compliance figures.

    WaterNSW said on Thursday it had “finalised lengthy investigations into compliance matters” and had this week begun several prosecution proceedings in the NSW Land and Environment Court.

    Labor’s water spokesman Chris Minns described the timing of the prosecution announcement as “utterly cynical”, coming as it did less than an hour before the Ombudsman was due to table in Parliament a report critical of the government for providing it statistics that were “incorrect to a significant degree”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/waternsw-reveals-cynical-legal-action-as-critical-water-report-lands-20180308-p4z3d8.html

  44. Voice endeavour

    What I was really attempting to express but didn’t put into words, is that the Greens will whinge and moan at every single opportunity towards Labor. Despite this Andrews Govt being a very progressive one. Leaps and bounds better than a coalition one will ever be.
    Yet the Greens are more than happy to side with the coalition.
    They can get stuffed.

  45. Dtt

    What troubles me about the Labor green wars is the lack of any objective reasoning on the part of the ALPers as to WHY there is a war in the first place.

    The greens batman htv card neatly summarizes the problem with the greens

  46. Bill McKibben‏Verified account @billmckibben

    Federal court gives go-ahead for giant youth climate trial, overruling Trump attempt to shut it down. As with guns, so with greenhouse gases: kids in the lead!

  48. VE

    Hey look its another clear example of Greens politicians having no influence on the political process!

    This is sarcasm if anyone is unsure.

  49. Vogon Poet says:
    Thursday, March 8, 2018 at 12:38 pm
    Dtt

    What troubles me about the Labor green wars is the lack of any objective reasoning on the part of the ALPers as to WHY there is a war in the first place.

    The greens batman htv card neatly summarizes the problem with the greens.

    ____________________

    Exactly. The real problems with the Greens did not become clear to me (though strenuously and completely elucidated here, I admit, my fault entirely) until I saw that htv.

  50. Trains are the solution. Oh yeah!

    THE NSW Government has an embarrassing problem with $2 billion worth of new trains that are on order — they’re too wide to go through the tunnels.

    Whereas the current trains are 2.9m wide, the new models being built in South Korea are 20cm wider. That small difference could have a big impact.

    It means the new trains could collide with the tunnel walls on their way up to the world famous Blue Mountains.

    But Transport for NSW (TfNSW), the Government body that manages the state’s rail system, has come up with a cunning plan. It has proposed simply relaxing current safety standards. In addition, 10 tunnels built in the 1900s will be partially modified to allow the new trains to run.

    http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/nsws-2-billion-new-trains-are-too-wide-to-get-through-tunnels/news-story/47bd2ee36f43cd3cdd2819078feb6011#.kycfp

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