The Australian has greeted the unofficial start of the campaign period for the October 26 Queensland state election with a Newspoll result that’s less bad for Labor than some of its polling this year, but still leaves little doubt about the likely result. The LNP is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, out from 54-46 at the last such poll in March, although primary votes are little changed at Labor 30% (steady), LNP 42% (steady), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 8% (steady). Steven Miles is up three on approval to 41% and up two on disapproval to 51%, while David Crisafulli is up two to 49% and up four to 37%. Crisafulli leads 46-39 as preferred premier, compared with 43-37 in March. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Wednesday from a sample of 1047.
Princeplanet says:
Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 5:34 pm
I agree that things got very desperate for Anna Bligh in the last week’s of the 2012 election. The polls for the ALP had been atrocious for several years before the election. I remember a huge sign in Highgate Hill sponsored by some unions saying bye bye Bligh so she had alienated many stakeholders ……
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There is actually a house on Klingner Rd Kippa Ring which still has “Bye Bye Bligh” painted on the front fence. For some reason the property owners added a lick of paint to it recently.
Wombat – per the “this will be the last ALP gov’t in QLD for some time”.
… As KB said a couple of months ago, the tide goes out a long way, and then it floods back in (Think of 2012-2015). The curious thing however is Mr.Chrisafulli planning to re-introduce OPV. He clearly senses the hostility between Labor & the Greens and the hope that their supporters may just fill out “1”, with a significant proportion of their vote exhausting thereby assisting the LNP to slip in via the back door in some seats. This may contribute to a long term LNP gov’t.
Quick side issue – can OPV in NSW be changed by the NSW Parliament, or does it require a state referendum. Does Mr Minns have any plans. Apparently in QLD it can be changed by legislation.
#weatheronPB
Cool, slow, soothing air
gently brushes my bare skin,
breathing in deeply.
Safe, soft, silky sky,
quietly guides the bright sun,
in its steady path.
You are spot on Nadia the greens are not the ALPs allies. Their attack ads are targeted totally at the ALP . OPV has benefited the liberal BCC ( they have a 10% higher TPP vote but have almost 4 times the seats) the LNP knows that they will pick up seats in Brisbane if they can get green voters to exhaust their vote. But this will only work if the LNP government remains somewhat moderate like the BCC. Newman was turfed out under the OPV system, also this is probably a good time to lose considering the only real complaints are crime and an it’s time factor. The LNP will struggle on this crime measure as they have no real solutions other than a few tweaks here and there. If they start down the usual LNP path of an audit which uncovers a Labor black hole followed by public service cuts, asset sales and general austerity including no longer being able to afford subsidies and things like cheaper bus fares I think their novelty will quickly wear thin.
OPV only benefits the LNP / disadvantages Labor if the Greens have the majority of the minor party vote. In Brisbane that’s generally true (hence the LNP getting such lopsided majorities on BCC – 3 or 4 seats would flip to Labor or Green under CPV), but in regional Qld and even the outer suburbs of Brisbane it’s frequently One Nation or KAP that comes third. A great example of that is Labor somehow retaining Mulgrave in the 2012 landslide with 34% of the vote, thanks to KAP coming a close third and their votes exhausting. Under CPV that would’ve been LNP and it wouldn’t be close, but Labor would’ve hung on to a few Brisbane seats in return. It’s swings and roundabouts, more so than in other states.
Thanks for that recap, birds of paradox, I’d forgotten about how OPV affected the 2012 election in that specific example.
And , more generally, how it might work well for LNP in some areas but damage it in others.
We did have OPV in QLD 2015 , but angry enough voters will distribute preferences it seems. Cheers.
Thanks Nadia, for your work as well !
Compulsory Preferential Voting has been the norm in Australia for over 50 years. OPV is only considered by major parties who will lose.
as it stands:
Greens are extreme Labor
one Nation and Family First are extreme Liberal. Therefore these minor parties who are more extreme than the major parties have no where to preference other than their less extreme major party.
Katter, DLP ( Scott Donovan standing in Murrumba) fall between the Liberals and Labor on most issues.
Katter has traditionally put out a How to Vote with a Blue Option and a Red Option but Electoral Commission are advising candidates they will not approve such a How to Vote
Andrew Jackson says: Wednesday, September 25, 2024 at 8:00 am:
“Compulsory Preferential Voting has been the norm in Australia for over 50 years.”
Not in Queensland.
Prior to the most recent change, CPV was only used from 1962 to 1992. From 1944 it was first past the post, and prior to that, OPV.
It will OPV again after the forthcoming state election.
nadia88 says: Monday, September 23, 2024 at 8:04 am:
“Apparently in QLD it can be changed by legislation.”
Indeed it can, has been, and will be.
As was the abolition of the Legislative council, despite a majority vote in a referendum to the contrary.