The Australian has greeted the unofficial start of the campaign period for the October 26 Queensland state election with a Newspoll result that’s less bad for Labor than some of its polling this year, but still leaves little doubt about the likely result. The LNP is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, out from 54-46 at the last such poll in March, although primary votes are little changed at Labor 30% (steady), LNP 42% (steady), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 8% (steady). Steven Miles is up three on approval to 41% and up two on disapproval to 51%, while David Crisafulli is up two to 49% and up four to 37%. Crisafulli leads 46-39 as preferred premier, compared with 43-37 in March. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Wednesday from a sample of 1047.
Newspoll: 55-45 to LNP in Queensland
Five weeks out from the Queensland election, further indications of a looming change of government.
Just goes to show that getting rid of a longstanding leader to make way for someone from the next generation can sometimes help to revitalise an ailing government and give them an extra term of government that they might otherwise not have achieved.
But, in order for this strategy to work, the incoming leader needs to have some talent. From the first time I ever laid eyes on him I couldn’t work out whether the best word to describe him was “turkey” or “goose.” Strong claims can be made for either.
I’d like to embark on another of my periodic rants against the left factions of the ALP, but, truth to tell, Miles is only a faux lefty anyway, who is said to have started off in the right faction, but switched to the left because he saw more opportunities to get on.
I agree with the comment above – Miles comes across to me as a goose, or a deer stuck in the headlights. Cameron Dick would have been a far better opponent against Cresafulli.
30 seats wouldn’t be a total wipeout for Labor, it would give them a base to work from for 2028, especially if Cresafulli is another Campbell Newman.
They look to have the baseball bats all ready to go.
I note that South Australia had a 12 year Labor Government defeated by a one term Lib. Government and normal transmission was hastily resumed. This will be the case in Queensland. Another generation has to discover the do nothing, hapless Conservatives approach.
This is actually a four point improvement on primary vote for the ALP over the July 18 YouGov poll also for the Murdoch courier mail. The LNP has no real policies outside of being a bit tougher on youth crime in far Q. The ALP has a good story to tell on COL measures ( a way bigger issue than crime in recent polls) and LNP has no real ideas in this space. Also the LNP will have to counter a number of scare campaigns like asset sales and public service cuts. How this plays out in a campaign is anyone’s guess but things may end up being a lot better for ALP than 2012. Don’t get me wrong though, I cannot see anything other than an LNP win it’s just that this to me has a very different feeling to 2012.
it’s just that this to me has a very different feeling to 2012 ??
I feel a surprise awaits !
I hope voters think back to the last LNP Newman disaster !.
1934Pc: “it’s just that this to me has a very different feeling to 2012 ??
I feel a surprise awaits !
I hope voters think back to the last LNP Newman disaster !.”
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This was perhaps a conceivable scenario if the ALP had gone with Dick as leader rather than Miles. There is nothing special about Crisafulli and his team. Newman was a strong performer with a solid record as Lord Mayor of Brisbane and (quite bizarrely in retrospect) was perceived to be a moderate centrist. Nobody was to know back in 2012 that, once he was installed as Premier, he was going to display such ideological zeal and appalling judgement.
But Crisafulli doesn’t have anything like the political stature that Newman had back in 2012. Outside of the Townsville area, where he is well-known as a TV reporter, Crisafulli is a nobody: a blank sheet of paper onto which you can project anything you wish. A smart Labor team with a smart leader would perhaps have been able to paint Crisafulli as another Newman-in-waiting: on the surface a mild-mannered reporter, but one who might potentially climb into the phone box and emerge transformed as a maniacal surplus seeker, wreaking havoc on government services.
But the point here, as I posted earlier, is that you would need a smart Labor leader. Miles is a cross breed of a turkey and a goose. So he’s got Buckley’s.
1934pc: the amazing thing about all this is that this is a good government by nearly all measures. The LNP and our RW media has been condemning them as chaotic but they aren’t chaotic just because a biased media/ LNP says so. The LNP is relying on one issue to get them in and that’s fear of crime but a recent poll say 14% put crime as first order but more than 50% say cost of living. Miles who many disparage has been knocking it for six on COL . Everyone is aware also of the LNPs love affair with privatisation and service cuts ( anathema to most Qlders who dislike privatisation and know that the local footy coach or the guy who helps secure your roof after a cyclone is very likely a public sector worker). A scare campaign with plenty of 2012 Cando evidence, including Mr Crisifulli’s prominent role in that debacle is coming up to counter the LNPs dog whistle crime campaign. The sleeper will be the Dutton toxic nuclear reactors plan which many would believe Mr Crisifulli would wave through.
The copium is real thicccccc today.
Opposition don’t win elections. Governments lose them. Comparing the LNP today to the great achievements of Campbell Newman is only making me more excited in realising that QLD thinks so low of the ALP. That the central campaign policy of the ALP across the nation for the last 40 years of ‘we’ll give you free stuff’ is not being welcomed.
Talk about a 2 birds one stone win. QLD may not vote ALP for a generation if they are this far ahead despite all this negativity towards the LNP.
I wonder how much of what is coming is backwash from and retribution for the Voice referendum. If this is the case, I don’t think that Queensland voters are looking back to the halcyon days of Campbell Newman. I think they are looking back to good old days of the Bjelke-Petersen years.
Princeplanet: “Miles who many disparage has been knocking it for six on COL .”
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Do you seriously believe that voters are so stupid that they can’t see things like sudden, dramatic cuts in public transport fares and electricity bills in the lead-up to an election as being anything other than vote-buying gimmicks? Or believe that these things could possibly be affordable on an ongoing basis?
Unless these policies are introduced with a clear policy rationale and with convincing explanations as to how they will be affordable and won’t lead to reductions in the quality of services provided, I think they tend to lose more voters than they win over, because they look impulsive, ill-considered and desperate.
https://x.com/kossamaras/status/1837250811832979726, details
meher baba ?
Unless these policies are introduced with a clear policy rationale and with convincing explanations as to how they will be affordable???.
They are affordable because they are obtained from Queensland assets, i.e the minerals owned by the Queensland people, and not ripped off by miners digging them out of the earth !.
If the voters are alert enough to realize that, things might reverse !.
meher baba @ #7 Saturday, September 21st, 2024 – 9:31 am
The only reason Newman won was Anna Bligh promised not to sell state assets and then went ahead and did just that.
Newman’s character and ideology were plain to all to see. He fooled enough people by saying he wouldn’t sack public servants etc. When he broke that promise, just like Anna Bligh he was destined for eventual defeat.
All those bagging Albo for not breaking election promises that promised only moderate reform in favour of doing more radical stuff should take note. For the same reason he would have suffered MORE of a backlash if he hadn’t gone ahead with the Voice referendum.
1934Pc @ #13 Saturday, September 21st, 2024 – 11:46 am
The public transport fares policy is brilliant as it also feeds forward into reduced need for road investment, lower vehicle emissions, reduced road accidents etc. Other states have taken notice.
Electricity subsidies are using the current high prices for coal etc to smooth the transition to renewables which again just sensible policy.
“That the central campaign policy of the ALP across the nation for the last 40 years of ‘we’ll give you free stuff’ is not being welcomed.”
@Astro_turf
Yeah piss off Astri_turf. Liberals threw away 40 billion on Job keeper to businesses who were not entitled to that money and also didn’t have to pay that money back. So much for your ‘Labor gives out free stuff’ bullshit.
On to the Queensland election. Courier Mail coverage has been disgraceful. The Miles government proposed to renovate qsac stadium, and it gets slammed as doing it for the cheap. I guarantee if they found a more expensive option they would be accused of wasting tax payers money and debt.
David Crisafulli has been giving mixed messages with his responses. Just hiding behind he will establish a infrastructure body and suggesting no new stadiums. But then putting the boot in Labor’s QSAC option. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ditches it and goes with former Liberal Lord Mayor Graham Quirk’s Victoria Park option. Interestingly Campbell Newman has been scathing of this option. Newman would know about extravagance and waste. As Premier he went ahead with the diabolical ‘Tower of Power’ debacle which was slammed in a review as a enormous waste of tax payers money.
Meha Baba : you obviously have very strong opinions about all of this which I respect but the electricity subsidies have been around for a while and the transport cost reduction has been really popular and something right out of left field. These are possible due to the extra mining royalties which the LNP will almost certainly junk. I don’t hope to convince you of anything but Miles is growing into this role and Qlders do not demand slick presentation from their leaders ( Anastacia was anything but slick). I have also stated that I cannot see the ALP winning but I am saying that a 2012 wipeout that many have been predicting and baseball bat style shellacking may not happen. I will be the first to say how wrong I was should a worst case scenario play out.
Qld is getting a LNP govt.
We tried that in SA and quickly went back to Labor.
Everyone has a bad hair day.
Princeplanet: ” I don’t hope to convince you of anything but Miles is growing into this role and Qlders do not demand slick presentation from their leaders ( Anastacia was anything but slick).”
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I have always been an Annastacia fan: she’s a smart cookie who was also able to relate to ordinary people.
Miles is a turkey. The difference is obvious to me, and I think it’s also obvious to the voters of Queensland.
Time will tell.
All the best Meher Baba✌️
2012 had a massive backlash from the federal sphere (it was in the middle of Gillard-Rudd tension and carbon tax stuff). The reason Newman had looked like a moderate was he was not Abbott. Equally the blow back in 2015 was in part because Abbott’s governing was just terrible at that stage – He gave the knighthood to Prince Phillip 5 days before the Queensland Election.
I don’t see this year being anywhere near either of them. I expect Labor to lose a little more than a dozen seat to the LNP and the LNP have about 50 seats.
First full four year term too.
I agree BS Fairman. ALP will really struggle in the regions but may also pull a few surprises if the campaign works out for them. The LNP is running on one issue. They have many questions to answer and how they answer them will influence the final result. At this stage an LNP win for sure but unless something comes right out of left field,my gut feeling is that this will be no 2012
That election is over, and has been since around the time AP was shown the door late last year.
No sleeper issues.
Antony Green will call the LNP election win around 7.15pm QLD time, on election night.
It’s over.
Miles seems to be going quite well. Good fella by the look of it.
His save the furniture approach seems to be working. Some good old fashioned socialist policies helps.
The “it’s time” factor will probably get him in the end, but if he can get it to 47 53 on election day, he will have done well, saved a few seats and set them up for next election.
Crisafulli is somewhat underwhelming, be careful what you wish for QLD.
I know it’s over Nadia but I seem to remember you saying in april it would be a 2012 style massacre with 12 members returned, Do you still think that? I think they will return between 20 to 30 maybe more, but as I said back then I will tip my hat in a very humble way to you if the ALP only returns in the teens. Always good to see your contributions though and my thoughts are just gut feelings based on nothing other than my long interest in Qld politics.
Remind me what we’re the swings against AP in the byelections?
Nothing to do with the ALP?
Princeplanet says:
Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 5:36 pm
I know it’s over Nadia but I seem to remember you saying in april it would be a 2012 style massacre with 12 members returned, Do you still think that? I think they will return between 20 to 30 maybe more, but as I said back then I will tip my hat in a very humble way to you if the ALP only returns in the teens. Always good to see your contributions though and my thoughts are just gut feelings based on nothing other than my long interest in Qld politics.
_________
Operation Reupholstery has shifted the polls. We shall see where we land.
P.N.:
The Miles government proposed to renovate qsac stadium, and it gets slammed as doing it for the cheap
QSAC is the worst site for a stadium I’ve ever seen, on the side of a hill, no parking near site, 5 miles from a train and the wind is always blowing.
Victoria Park is just more civic vandalism, it was a nice golf links until the Legacy Way Tunnel took the 5th Hole out and Council shut it down.
Brisbane Exhibition Grounds is a No Brainer, it’s a walk from town, the train pulls up inside, many events can be held in the pavilions, and it’s across Bowen Bridge Road from Victoria Park anyway.
Hopefully, Crisafulli will either do that, or do a Andrews.
With 4 year Terms, eveyone will have forgotten about it by 2028.
Here’s the numbers from 2020:
ALP 39%
LNP 35%
If the polls are right, Labor’s lost a third of it’s voters.
On Newman, plenty of Public Serpents took voluntary redundancy, I know 1 who started the day after as a contractor for Q-Build, so it wasn’t all doom and gloom, unless you were just at the start of your brilliant career.
The you had to get a real job.
What did Newman in was going Bela Kun, he’d already fucked up Inner City Brissie with stupid hire bikes and Bike Lanes, as well as tunnels up the wazoo, now he had control of the Main Roads, he passed a law that cyclists could ride their bike in any lane on a main road, at any time and any speed [not the freeways, though].
Even pushbikers thought that was nuts.
His 2 nd term agenda included an 18 km Trucks Only tunnel from Rocklea to the Port Of Brisbane.
Palaszczuk was the downside to getting rid of a maniac, imo.
Hi PrinceP,
I think I said somewhere between 12-18 seats for the ALP, post the election. I don’t think they’ll get much more than that. The Greens will jag a few more inner seats, such as Miller & possibly McConnell. I think the Greens will get Sth Brisbane on primaries. The Greens are strong in Brisbane because the state is fairly polarised.
The LNP are strong within Brisbane’s middle/outer suburbs and the regions. The LNP also has a python grip lock on the Goldy and Sunny Coasts. There is currently an indie in the Sunny Coast, but I believe the LNP will clean sweep the six Sunny seats and will also clean sweep the 12 Goldie state seats.
There are a lot of NS’Welshmen and women moving to the Sunny Coast on a quarterley basis and they will remember Mr Miles tearing up Gladys’s Covid bill a couple of years ago. They think (along with most Qld’ers), that Mr Miles is a dimwit. Ex NSW residents, who now reside in QLD, will probably place Miles (or his Labor candidate), at the bottom of the ballot and then work their way up.
The election will be called around 7.15PM Brisbane time, maybe a bit earlier.
Having lived up here for 14 years, I can assure you the mood is sour, and Labor is finished up here on Oct.26.
Given Mr Chrisafulli has the confidence to also announce, pre election, that he is re-introducing OPV in QLD, you could probably expect a long term LNP gov’t here.
L/NP at 42% will see Labor on the opposition benches. Miles is a nice enough bloke but looks like time for a change.
Brought down a few budget surpluses, paid down debt and spread some joy for voters complaining about COL. 50c fares is taking traffic off the arterials in peak hour and it’s to continue. Those talking about COL who don’t want $1000 electricity subsidy are voting against their best interests or getting information from the wrong sources.
Dutton and Crucifooli have been evasive about nuclear reactors. Feeling on the street is ” too expensive, too slow won’t happen” but the L/NP renewable energy aims should draw further questions.
There are 2 hydro projects coming down the line. Borumba dam is to be reviewed day one by incoming L/NP Govt but might be too advanced to stop. They have opposed it every step of the way. Pioneer River/ Mackay hydro is bigger than Snowy Mountains scheme and L/NP says no way, cancelled. Although a lot of preliminary work and acquisitions have happened, it can be stopped with quick action.
Qld has wind farms in operation, farms approved and in various stages of build, and plenty that are in the negotiation stage. All up, could power over 3 million homes although most power is going into Industry. Crucifooli and L/NP heavyweights have said no wind turbines will get approval. Zero. Far NQ has best environment for wind in Australia with existing farms at Ingham, Cooktown, St Lawrence, Ravenshoe, Hughenden and more across in NT around Darwin. West of Mt Isa has exportable mineral reserves of over $500 billion that need power.
That leaves existing solar on homes, most of which have been put on with subsidies. No mention of what is to happen in this area in the future.
Labor has joint venture projects in the pipeline and under negotiation with $25 billion in budgets for the last 2 years. If Qld is in for 5% or 10% of most projects ,that runs into big investment dollars.
Qld owns the State’s electricity generation which is profitable but all coal and gas that is to be phased out by 2050. Dutton’s nuclear timeline 2046 is cutting it fine.
Those under 40 have been critical of how much damage is being done to the planet and are blaming everything from bushfires, floods and coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef on past Governments. I hope that some of the information sources they use are giving them correct info about what is in store for the next 4 years.
Astro-turf: “QLD may not vote ALP for a generation if they are this far ahead despite all this negativity towards the LNP.”
In the generation just passed (since 1989), Queensland voted ALP in every election, bar one.
B. S. Fairman: “Equally the blow back in 2015 was in part because Abbott’s governing was just terrible at that stage – He gave the knighthood to Prince Phillip 5 days before the Queensland Election.”
If ‘in part’, a small part.
Queenslanders’ dismay and disgust with the Newman government was presaged by two by-elections that each delivered whopping swings of 16%, long before “Arise, Sir Prince Philip”.
Admittedly, there were special factors in both by-elections.
One was precipitated by the resignation of an LNP MP charged with (and later jailed for) fraud.
The other was precipitated by the resignation of an LNP MP who quit in disgust with his own party’s style of government.
Hey Nadia : we agree on one thing that is from the evidence so far of polling and by elections that there will be a new government in Qld soon. Where we part ways is opinion of Miles and the extent of the loss. For all of your certainty I have my doubts based on many things but maybe also a fair dose of dumb optimism and hope. I experienced the Newman times and much of his hubris and reckless performance stemmed from the enormous win in 2012. OPV contributed to that and in my opinion is a stupid system that provides lopsided results. I am hoping this time for a strong opposition that will somewhat stem the more extreme elements of the LNP but time will tell. Keep well Nadia
Labor does rely on the Old Media for it’s messaging.
The more voters not using that media, the less likely Labor Governments are to occur, imo.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
OPV didn’t help Newman in 2015, voters filling out the ballot made the difference between a narrow win and a loss for the LNP..
2012 had a massive backlash from the federal sphere (it was in the middle of Gillard-Rudd tension and carbon tax stuff). The reason Newman had looked like a moderate was he was not Abbott. Equally the blow back in 2015 was in part because Abbott’s governing was just terrible at that stage – He gave the knighthood to Prince Phillip 5 days before the Queensland Election.
I don’t see this year being anywhere near either of them. I expect Labor to lose a little more than a dozen seat to the LNP and the LNP have about 50 seats.
First full four year term too.
@B. S. Fairman
The 2012 and 2015 results were largely driven by state issues. I’m not saying some federal influence wasn’t into it, the 2015 result was the kicker that started to get the move against Tony Abbott’s Prime Minstership. But in 2012 people had enough of Anna Bligh, – and the fact Labor had been in power for 20 out of 22 years was also fueling time for a change factor. In 2015 the LNP’s spectacular implosion was mainly driven by the cut and burn governing of Campbell Newman.
The current term is the first four year term not the next term after the 2024 Queensland state election.
QSAC is the worst site for a stadium I’ve ever seen, on the side of a hill, no parking near site, 5 miles from a train and the wind is always blowing.
Victoria Park is just more civic vandalism, it was a nice golf links until the Legacy Way Tunnel took the 5th Hole out and Council shut it down.
Brisbane Exhibition Grounds is a No Brainer, it’s a walk from town, the train pulls up inside, many events can be held in the pavilions, and it’s across Bowen Bridge Road from Victoria Park anyway.
Hopefully, Crisafulli will either do that, or do a Andrews.
With 4 year Terms, eveyone will have forgotten about it by 2028.
@Badthinker
Your right about the location. I used to live in Brisbane, and QSAC out at Mount Gravatt never made sense. So much so the Newman government considered getting rid of it, because of the restoration costs. But a review into it found 60 – 80 school athletic carnivals it hosted every year determined it was worth holding on to it. The state government has promised to significantly upgrade transport to remedy this though.
My point still stands that Miles was going to get smashed whichever way he went with this. There was a huge racket when state government proposed upgrading the GABBA. I’ve actually also read that sooner or later the GABBA is going to be needed to be upgraded despite all the noise over the development.
David Crisafulli is keeping quiet on it, and being disingenuous suggesting no new stadiums if he’s not going with the QSAC option. He’s not going to say what he’s going to do because new stadiums is unpopular with the public doing it tough. And it’s particularly unpopular with voters in the regions where the LNP are polling best.
Andrews cancelled the Commonwealth games with largely little backlash from the public over it. But I can’t see that as a option the state government would do with the Olympics. Despite getting a lot of whingeing about the costs from the public over it.
The issue was demolishing the East Brisbane State School next door.
Heritage listed, though I doubt there are many School aged kids in the area.
State built a replacement S.S. down in the swamp next to Coorparoo High, so I’m not sure EBSS is even used as a School anymore?
Why they caved is anyones guess, Greens own the area at Local State and Federal level, nothing Labor does is ever getting it back.
East Brisbane State School is certainly still used as a school. As at last report (August 2023) it has 308 students from prep to year six. Enrolments are open for 2025. Enrolments have been gradually increasing over the past two years. (edited to correct years).
Thanks, good to hear.
Had it’s own 25 m. pool for at least 50 years that I know of, too.
My point about 2012 and 2015 being influenced by the atmosphere in Federal Politics is not that state issues were unimportant; they certainly were. But if the “vibe” against the governments of one colour or the other, then the swings tend to be much more. It has to be remember a large section of the electorate can’t understand the divide between state and federal spheres.
So my thesis is popular federal government gives a boost to a state government of the same side, unpopular federal government is a drag on a state government of the same stripe.
In 2012 and 2015, both federal governments were toxic and the vibe was not good for either. Bligh would have been defeated but the wipeout would not have been as big. In 2015, Newman’s governments faults were reinforced by the faults of the Abbott’s chaotic rule and he might just have hung on if Abbott was not around.
The 2012 QLD election was a wipeout because Bligh took dirty politics to an extreme level and paid the price. Blatant lies to infer Newman was a criminal was always going to end badly particularly when the lies were exposed clearly.
These dynamics aren’t relevant at this election. It’s mainly about perceived loss of control of law and order.
“The 2012 QLD election was a wipeout because Bligh took dirty politics to an extreme level and paid the price. Blatant lies to infer Newman was a criminal was always going to end badly particularly when the lies were exposed clearly.”
@Davidwh
Crap. No, politcal scholar thought this was a factor and nor did Anna Bligh do this. It’s laughable your having crocodile tears for
Campbell Newman. When premier Newman accused the Labor party of accepting donations from bikies but when asked for evidence told journalists to “Google it”.
Newman was a Media invention from the get go in 2003, but they turned on him as Premier.
A red light was spending $250 million renovating City Hall and paving King George Square.
One poll found 40% thought City Hall should be torn down, since it serves no purpose.
No crocodile tears for Newman. He was a terrible premier and a disappointment. However he did suffer a despicable attack from Labor over a sustained period including that attack from Bligh calling him a criminal who would end up in jail.
It was those attacks in the latter weeks of the election campaign that turned a defeat into a disaster.
Very late in the campaign Bligh accused he set up an office to run corruption developments but it turned out the office was just an accountants working office. The CMC made a point of debunking this accusation a few days before the election.
It was dirty politics at its worst and Labor got what they deserved. Pity the state had to suffer as well with a term of no opposition.
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/pm/queensland-in-knock-down-drag-out-battle/3834738
https://amp.9news.com.au/article/97ca0ada-4b43-43db-8930-caa972ba2700
https://www.ccc.qld.gov.au/news/cmc-concludes-no-official-misconduct-newman-assessment-three-bcc-related-matters
I agree that things got very desperate for Anna Bligh in the last week’s of the 2012 election. The polls for the ALP had been atrocious for several years before the election. I remember a huge sign in Highgate Hill sponsored by some unions saying bye bye Bligh so she had alienated many stakeholders . The ALP had sold assets which is an extremely unpopular thing to do in Qld . Bligh recovered somewhat with her Qlder style speech during the 2011 floods which she handled very well, But that was short-lived. This time is very very different from then with the polls being 50/50 just late last year. Since then some high profile crimes like the tragic stabbing murder of a lady in Ipswich by a youth just prior to Ipswich by election. The LNP has been focussed almost 100% on crime with virtually no other policies. For example their health policy seems to be to empower nurses and doctors – who the flip even knows what that means let alone how it will achieve anything? So an interesting election coming up no matter what anyone thinks about the baseball bats or 2012 slaughterhouse scenario.
@davidwh
So what david? You label that as “dirty politics to an extreme level”. How is that different to what Campbell Newman has said and what both sides of politics have accused each other of?
Referring someone to the CMC now the CCC has been regular in thing in politics. To the point where both sides of politics were warned that the governing body it won’t be used a partisan dirt digging tool. Your suggestion it was ‘dirty politics to an extreme level’ is nonsense.
After the total emphasis on crime one would expect a lack of any sort of criminal activity when the LNP get into power in a few weeks time!!!
I think this will be the last ALP government in Queensland for some time. The fundamentals of the state’s politics are changing. Brisbane may remain something of a stronghold for the ALP, but unlike the other states, that isn’t enough in Queensland. The ALP are going to lose regional seats they’ve held for generations, and i don’t think they’ll swing back. The ALP has lost a lot of it’s traditional base.