YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)

Labor maintains level pegging in the latest YouGov poll despite a drop on the primary vote and a further weakening in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

YouGov seems to be back in its three-weekly schedule of federal polling, the latest result showing no change on a tied two-party vote despite movement in the Coalition’s favour on the primary: specifically, Labor is down two points to 30% and the Coalition is up two to 39%. The two-party stasis is presumably down to rounding plus the effect on preferences of a one-point increase for the Greens to 14% and a one-point drop for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have taken a dive, his approval down five to 36% and disapproval up six to 58%, while Peter Dutton is up two to 40% and down three to 50%. Albanese still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister, in from 43-38 to 42-39. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1619.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

442 comments on “YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)”

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  1. Good evening y’all. Ye punters chomping at the bit to put a positive spin on Newspoll for their preferred team regardless of what it actually says. My tip no 2PP change. Why no change? I have no idea what people other than myself are thinking when contacted by a pollster.

  2. Thanks Been There.
    You’re ok for a labor poster. I Don’t agree with the racing industry, but you are a real good sort on this site, and also good for not putting us Greens down all the time.
    Cheers back to you too.

  3. dave @ #397 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 9:27 pm

    michael says:
    Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 9:19 pm

    The last time the LNP lead a Newspoll was 28-11-2020.
    If it happens tonight does a new session of the killing season re-commence.
    _______
    That’s what everybody is secretly wondering. And also wondering if Littlefinger’s bizarre Vice Chancellor move is an end game maneuver.

    Not everybody. Just you, as usual.

  4. @been there

    Come up mate, too early for mackerel but good kings around and the cod are something else when you can find them, and there’s always snapper and pearlies! You have a spot on motorboat any time !

  5. Primary support for Labor has dipped to the party’s equal lowest levels since the 2022 election in the wake of a heated political contest over the government’s stalled plan for housing, which has emerged as the most significant cost-of-living concern for the majority of voters.
    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows housing, including rents and interest rates, is now by the far the most dominant cost pressure for households, eclipsing grocery prices and energy bills. With the government under pressure to deliver on its election commitments to build more homes, Labor’s primary vote has fallen to 31 per cent for the first time since November last year, in the wake of the failed voice referendum.
    Support for the Coalition, which has yet to announce a housing policy, is holding firm at 38 per cent.
    This is the equal largest primary vote lead the Coalition has enjoyed over Labor since the last election, with Labor now falling behind the 32.6 per cent primary vote support that narrowly secured its election victory in May 2022. But with a lift in support for the Greens and other minor parties and independents, the two-party-preferred contest remains at 50/50 for a third Newspoll in a row.
    The Greens have lifted a point to 13 per cent, other minor parties including independents have risen a point to 12 per cent, while Pauline Hanson’s One Nation dropped a point and is back to 6 per cent.

  6. Griff @ #397 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 9:29 pm

    Confessions says:
    Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 9:25 pm
    Boerwar @ #375 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 9:05 pm

    “Jill Stein is a Greens doing what Greens do best: achieve nothing of substance while feeding Trump and Dutton.”

    Nah she’s a Russian asset. And besides, she’s only in this race because West refused to take up the Greens cudgels and the GOP needed a Dems spoiler on the national vote. Enter Stein.

    _________

    This didn’t look great for Stein: https://www.newsweek.com/jill-stein-vladimir-putin-war-criminal-1954965

    No it didn’t.

  7. Dave 9.27pm
    [That’s what everybody is secretly wondering. And also wondering if Littlefinger’s bizarre Vice Chancellor move is an end game maneuver.]

    You’ll take it to your grave Nathie !
    Very sad.

  8. “Countering the fall in primary vote support for Labor, satisfaction with Mr Albanese’s performance improved two points to 43 per cent. Dissatisfaction fell three points to 51 per cent, giving the Prime Minister a net negative satisfaction rating of minus-8.

    Voters have meanwhile marked down Liberal leader Peter Dutton with a two-point fall in satisfaction levels to 37 per cent. With an unchanged dissatisfaction rating of 52 per cent, Mr Dutton’s net negative satisfaction rating of minus-15 is his worst result since June.

    The head-to-head contest between the two leaders over who was regarded as the better prime minister remained largely unchanged with a slight improvement for Mr Albanese, who leads Mr Dutton 46 per cent to 37 per cent.”

    There are supplementary issue questions as well, tomorrow there will be a table in the paper.

  9. The Greens have lifted a point to 13 per cent,

    Wait, what?! We were told, delusionally, and therefore hysterically that the Greens would be at 16%, a significant move in voter sentiment! Instead they’re a MoE shift.

  10. Leroy
    Federal Newspoll

    TPP: ALP 50 (0) L/NP 50 (0)

    Primaries: ALP 31 (-1) L/NP 38 (0) GRN 13 (+1) ON 6 (-1) OTH 12 (+1)
    ————————————-
    Sounds about right.

  11. Mr Dutton’s net negative satisfaction rating of minus-15 is his worst result since June.

    The head-to-head contest between the two leaders over who was regarded as the better prime minister remained largely unchanged with a slight improvement for Mr Albanese, who leads Mr Dutton 46 per cent to 37 per cent.”

    It’s slowly seeping into the electorate’s consciousness that Peter Dutton is an empty suit.

  12. Good call Mavis!
    You said 31%, and yes bang on 31%.
    I thought it may drop to 30%.

    Bludgertrack will be updated during the week and we’ll see – golly gosh – the LNP in the lead now for the first time this cycle.
    What is going on?

  13. So there it is -the Term low point for ALP 2PP and PV in Newspoll.

    Once Inflation is announced to be <3% this week and then confirmed in the quarterly figures at end of October, the heat will come on the RBA as people start to see that the Government has done their end of he bargain and the Bank needs to do its.

    There will also be no more "interest rates need to go up for your own good" stories being regurgitated by lazy journalists.

    The 2PP started its downwards trend in November 2023 after the last – and final – interest rate rise, and it will start trending back up from this November, at the latest.

  14. @been there

    Come up mate, too early for mackerel but good kings around and the cod are something else when you can find them, and there’s always snapper and pearlies! You have a spot on motorboat any time !

    Thanks brother, I’m from FNQ, going to retire back home in Cairns in the next year or so, might call in on the way up.

  15. I was right, no newspoll 2PP change. Labor dropped a point but it didn’t go to the Liberals, steady on 38 % PV. Interesting the OZ reading the results as a referendum on housing policy instead of a myriad of things it could be about. OK punters, time to put your mind reading spin on the results. Your time starts now. Popcorn is ready ☺ oh C@t, that’s the headline the OZ wanted regardless of the result – typical conservative tyre pumping crap

  16. A further deterioration in Israel-Irish relations.
    President Michael D Higgins wrote a personal letter of congratulations to Masoud Pezeshkian on his election as president of Iran. This has been leaked to the press and Higgins has accused the Israeli Embassy (not the ambassador who was withdrawn when Ireland recognised the State of Palestine) of the leak.

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-41481163.html

    Two pertinent points:
    1. More Zionist students of Irish history might compare the letter to Taoiseach De Valera and President Hyde offering their condolences to the German ambassador on the death of Herr Hitler in May 1945
    2. Questions of Higgins’ competency have been raised in the Dail and quickly closed down by the speaker

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