YouGov seems to be back in its three-weekly schedule of federal polling, the latest result showing no change on a tied two-party vote despite movement in the Coalition’s favour on the primary: specifically, Labor is down two points to 30% and the Coalition is up two to 39%. The two-party stasis is presumably down to rounding plus the effect on preferences of a one-point increase for the Greens to 14% and a one-point drop for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have taken a dive, his approval down five to 36% and disapproval up six to 58%, while Peter Dutton is up two to 40% and down three to 50%. Albanese still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister, in from 43-38 to 42-39. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1619.
It’s all down to what the RBA decides to do. Also, the advertising campaign in the election exposing all the mendacious political rhetoric Dutton & Co. have employed to get ahead, like their Palestinian visa lies, or their Nuclear Power Costings, which they won’t release and are playing ducks and drakes with in a pathetic, cynical effort to keep the full ramifications of it on the hip pocket of voters away from them.
RBA will not cut ya see labor luvvies you lot brought a million people in and the so called “students”are not going home for a year or two as they are now appealing for Asylum.
250,000 appealing by January says migration expert.
They were really migrants not students and labor were secretly letting them in through the back door to avoid a recession and it’s exploded in labors face.
Rents through roof and the demand they are creating these 1 million plus labor brought in means inflation stuck and interest rates high and if the economy starts growing faster interest rate increases.THERE is your cost of living.
Next week electricity rebate should temporarily drive inflation numbers down but the RBA knows this and also watched as the Albanese labor states govs are spending $70 billion driving up inflation.Also knows labor has failed to make its population target as ABS showed this week.
Albo was recently in WA he promised many billions more.
The Greens have turned aggressive they know labor is heading at best minority government.
The rejected Bill Shorten still all over the media when will labor learn?
FUBAR says:
Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 12:57 am
There’s been an infestation of Greens. Maybe some glyphosate would sort the place out.
_______________
You’ve previously referred to the Greens as a cancer, now as weeds to be eliminated with glyphosate. Getting closer to Zyklon B aren’t you?
What-ever, pp. 😐
I think pp has been left out in the harsh WA sun for too long and it’s cooked his brain.
c@t: “It’s all down to what the RBA decides to do. Also, the advertising campaign in the election exposing all the mendacious political rhetoric Dutton & Co. have employed to get ahead, like their Palestinian visa lies, or their Nuclear Power Costings, which they won’t release and are playing ducks and drakes with in a pathetic, cynical effort to keep the full ramifications of it on the hip pocket of voters away from them.”
——————————————————————————
I don’t think that sort of advertising campaign would work too well, c@t. They’re pretty humdrum political “lies”: we’re not talking about allegations of cat-eating in Springfield.
Indeed, I think it’s going a bit too far to suggest that Dutton was “lying” about the checking process for Gaza visa applicants: I had also taken what Burgess was saying to mean that ASIO didn’t get involved in every case, but only those where Border Force’s own systems threw up a red flag. Burgess seems to have a lot of fans about the place, but I’m not one of them: IMO he seems to have an unfortunate knack for inadvertently stirring up issues that he seems to be trying to put to bed. (Or perhaps he’s playing four-dimensional chess, but I don’t think so.)
I don’t think nuclear power has helped Dutton all that much (other than perhaps with his own climate change-denying base). But it’s not an election-deciding issue: any more than it was when Labor ran very hard on “Keep Uranium in the Ground” in 1977. Basically, if you don’t wear Birkenstock sandals and carry a shoulder bag, you probably don’t care all that much about the issue one way or the other.
Labor’s best chance of winning the election is to start governing a bit better. My sense is that, in these uncertain times, the majority of the electorate still would prefer to give Labor another term in office, but are becoming pissed off about how inept Albo and his team are looking. That impression of ineptitude needs to be shifted, and quickly.
Running an advertising campaign against the Reserve Bank would be politically dumb. And the Palestinian issue will not lose Dutton votes.
Labor needs to govern better, definitely. And maybe forget about Adam Bandt and Max Chandler-Mather too, stop letting the Greens control the agenda.
This government are hopeless at communicating the good things they do, even to friendly media like the ABC.
C@t @ 6.11am
[Also, the advertising campaign in the election exposing all the mendacious political rhetoric Dutton & Co]
The MSM, the ABC, the flat earthers and the likes of those using the expression “Labor luvvies” and the gaggle of “right wing” naysayers have no intention of the next election being a contest of ideas.
Dutton and co. know that the advantage they have from the above mention will not highlight or promote their lack of policy, lack of detail and lack of integrity.
The DSS Greens have responded to the phenomenon of the Teals by becoming an obstructionist unruly mob.
Interest rates will help of course.
The Liberals/National cartel will depend on the otracisation of Labor just as they use “blacks”, migrants, boat people, crime, racism and religion to evoke their supporters.
Australia is in a far better place since Albanese and Labor assumed office, yet not a skerrick of acknowledgement from the usual sources.
The promotion of nuclear energy regardless of the economics of nuclear use is ever mentioned.
The hoards of disengaged voters have no intentional of rational intent.
Just observe PB, where it was and where it’s landed!
(my thoughts no better displayed than the mendacious nonsense from pp)
meher baba 6.56am
[Labor’s best chance of winning the election is to start governing a bit better. My sense is that, in these uncertain times, the majority of the electorate still would prefer to give Labor another term in office, but are becoming pissed off about how inept Albo and his team are looking. That impression of ineptitude needs to be shifted, and quickly.]
Your post was informative till this paragraph and exemplifies the chasm between your ability to express yourself eloquently and a hatred of all things Labor.
meher baba you are as disingenuous as the best of them. You will express your indignant horror at my suggestion as usual.
davesays:
Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 6:53 am
FUBAR says:
Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 12:57 am
[There’s been an infestation of Greens. Maybe some glyphosate would sort the place out.]
_______________
[You’ve previously referred to the Greens as a cancer, now as weeds to be eliminated with glyphosate. Getting closer to Zyklon B aren’t you?]
The character called FUBAR goes to bed in his jodhpurs, together with his riding crop.
A parody at best and certainly an extremist.
On the money when Swans were down 0-71, 7 weeks ago
shellbell says:
Saturday, August 3, 2024 at 8:07 pm
Swans deploying a very cunning plan versus Port Power
The Qld. and ACT elections may give some more coherent indication of the political direction of the “the lucky country”.
Measuring the appeal of the Teals and independents remains shallow.
The LNP haven’t moved much while the Greens seem to have adopted ” I’ve a new dress and want all the attention” verve.
Good luck to the Greens if they ever are tested in government.
FUBAR and his political distemper make Nath and Edwina look amateurish playhouse.
‘Royal Doulton says:
Friday, September 20, 2024 at 9:21 pm
Today’s people will fight the battles of today and live in the world of today. What life was like in the 1950s is irrelevant. Just as life in the 195os was infinitely better than life in the 1900s and old people then scolded young people and gave them some perspective. So it goes.’
———————————–
Hello!
Boomers are alive. They live in the world of today. They are fighting the battles of today. What life was like during all their lifetimes is relevant because they lived and they learned and they absorbed.
My point stands. PageBoi’s perspectives based on his memory are pathetically limited.
Goll. I’m rarely outraged by anything anyone says on here. But I thought I was stating the bleedingly obvious. Albo Labor isn’t coming across very well ATM. They need to fix this if they are to take advantage of the electorate’s propensity to give first term governments a second term.
Yes, it amazes me how the Right, globally and in Australia, is rationalised by seemingly rational and intelligent people.
For example, meher baba, says:
Indeed, I think it’s going a bit too far to suggest that Dutton was “lying” about the checking process for Gaza visa applicants:
The guy was the former Home Affairs Minister and he would well know what the ASIO checking process would have involved. He would, as Opposition Leader, have been able to access a briefing from Mike Burgess about what the checking process for Palestinian refugees was and thus have informed himself of the truth and shut up with his weeks of charged rhetoric as a result. Same with James Patterson. But no, it’s all disingenuous, cynical politics all the time with that lot and it just grinds my gears how many people are willing to find ways to excuse it and giggle like excitable schoolgirls when the Coalition PV goes up.
And that’s only one example. The nuclear policy is another. It’s a subterfuge for continued use of fossil fuels forever, or until Gina Reinhart and Clive Palmer’s supplies run out, yet too many people ‘don’t think nuclear power has helped Dutton all that much’. So, how do they explain away the perennial normalisation campaign for nuclear power that has occurred in the media to the extent that large percentages of the electorate now think it might be a good idea? And some commenters on this blog think that putting nuclear into the energy supply mix was a genius political move on Dutton’s part?
This is the sort of thing that leaves me aghast. Absolute bad faith commenters like pied piper I can understand because they will always exist to push whatever the Coalition are offering no matter what, but it’s others who use their obvious intelligence to elide the truth about Dutton & Co., and after what the country has just been through with him as a Senior Minister the whole way through the ATM governments, that really makes me sad as they pump him up. Pumping for Pete? Ew!
I see that the US Greens are doing same old, same old with the Australian Greens: trying to give the election to Trump and Dutton.
How satisfying for them.
Reserve bank also knows rate cuts around the world recently will feed into Chinas export driven economy as they have in the past driving demand in exporter Australia-WA etc thus causing more inflation here.
Rate cut anybody?
Ps I voted labor last fed election after libs reached expiry date.Reversing that decision like many others.
My view is that it makes perfect sense to allow an insane party with 13% of the vote to impose a 40% company tax, 40% wages for everyone, an annual rent cap max of 2%, and an ADF that consists of meat grinder feedstock.
Fair is only fair.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Fixing Australia’s housing crisis requires cooperation, not political perfectionism, urges Laura Tingle in a frank assessment of where we are right now. She gives the Greens and the Coalition a bit of stick, too.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-21/australia-housing-crisis-requires-reset-poisonous-debate/104376854
By siding with the right, the Greens are in a race to the bottom, opines Emma Dawson. She says that by siding this week with the Coalition and One Nation to delay a vote on the government’s Help To Buy legislation, the Greens have joined the right-wing parties in a populist race to the bottom, abusing Senate processes in pursuit of their own electoral fortune. It is a betrayal of voters who put their trust in the minor party to secure stronger social justice and environmental policy outcomes from the Albanese government.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/by-siding-with-the-right-the-greens-are-in-a-race-to-the-bottom-20240920-p5kc4a.html
Bill Shorten has accused the Greens of blocking home ownership policies out of “political expediency” as the government increases scrutiny on the minor party’s MPs’ advocacy to oppose or modify local housing projects. Yesterday he labelled the Greens a “formidable and destructive political part of Australian life” on Friday, accusing them of forming an “unholy alliance” with the Coalition to delay Labor’s Help to Buy scheme.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/20/labor-bill-shorten-greens-max-chandler-mather-clash-over-development-help-to-buy-housing-scheme
Karen Middleton writes that Labor is being urged to boldly go where policy hasn’t gone before – just as long as it’s not too far. Stung by criticism of its ‘mediocrity’, the Albanese government has hit back – but knows radical policies could easily see it out of power, she says.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/20/labor-urged-to-boldly-go-where-policy-hasnt-gone-before-just-as-long-as-its-not-too-far
As the government faces the prospect of its housing agenda unravelling, with two key bills stalled in the Senate, Labor and the Greens are locked in a bitter fight over an issue that could decide the next election, says Karen Barlow.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/09/21/labors-bitter-housing-feud-with-the-greens
Sean Eslake gives us the maths behind his argument that axing negative gearing won’t cause a rental crisis. He says people who insist otherwise are only telling half the story. Calling them out would lead to a more honest discussion.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/21/australia-housing-crisis-negative-geating
In a long dissertation, Chris Wallace looks at the “rot within the public service”. She builds up to concluding that “It is the time for reflection and renewed efforts to pursue the deeper APS reforms needed to right 40 years of new public management destruction, of which robodebt is only the most prominent example”.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2024/09/21/the-rot-the-public-service
Australia’s debate over nuclear power is going nowhere. Politicians are happy to roll out any argument that suits them, but the credible and comprehensive analysis and modelling needed is completely missing. The upshot is that the energy industry – the people who need to make the transition happen – are disengaged, and consumers who will have to vote on these “policies” are confused, says Angela Macdonald-Smith.
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/nuclear-debate-stalls-as-detail-goes-missing-in-action-20240920-p5kc56
The Coalition’s proposal to cap large-scale renewable energy and eventually build nuclear power plants would lead to “massive” electricity supply shortages risking blackouts, according to analysis released by the federal government. The climate change and energy minister, Chris Bowen, released the findings of an energy department analysis that suggested electricity supply could be at least 18% less than what will be needed in 2035 under a scenario that reflects the few details of the Coalition plan that have been released.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/20/coalitions-nuclear-plan-will-lead-to-massive-electricity-shortages-and-risk-blackouts-new-analysis-warns
“The Albanese government’s signature, visionary policy for the next election is shaping up to be the Future Made in Australia. So far, the prime minister has faced criticism for his government’s reliance on subsidies in its support for high-priority projects and sectors under that framework, which the Coalition is calling “billions for billionaires”. This is a vulnerability of the FMIA in these early stages, before its full shape has even been established, which raises the question: why doesn’t the government co-invest with private-sector partners rather than simply offer handouts?”, writes John Hewson. He says that as the opposition has demonstrated over and over, it has no sense of our national interest and is more driven by vested interests and donor interests. There is no vision, let alone a suite of policies to move this country forward.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2024/09/20/can-labor-reimagine-healthy-public-private-partnership
Only five people have been given access to the royal commission’s sealed section. One is the attorney-general, who is ‘giving consideration to questions relating to the release of the confidential chapter’, writes Rick Morton about the fight to open the robodebt sealed section.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/09/21/inside-the-fight-open-the-robodebt-sealed-section
Annika Smethurst and Rachel Eddie lay bare the Victorian Liberal Party’s bitter, uncivil war.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/civil-case-in-an-uncivil-war-liberal-party-s-bitter-feud-laid-bare-20240918-p5kbkx.html
Moira Deeming’s defamation case is a symptom of greater dysfunction within the Liberal Party, exacerbated by an influx of right-wing religious members who flowed out of Family First, writes Mike Seccombe who says ‘Abbott was up to his neck in it’.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/09/21/abbott-was-his-neck-it-the-collapse-the-victorian-liberals
Further childcare subsidies will likely require an explicit new tax rise to fund it. Billions of dollars of more debt can’t be added to the national credit card, argues John Kehoe telling us why ‘free’ childcare is bad for working parents.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-free-childcare-is-a-bad-idea-20240918-p5kbjr
David Crowe tells us the AFL and NRL have launched a last-ditch attempt to protect their business models from a far-reaching federal plan to ban gambling advertising across all digital platforms, fearing the changes will slash revenue from their websites and apps and hurt community sport. They are using the “nanny state “ argument.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/nanny-state-nrl-afl-storm-the-field-over-gambling-ads-20240920-p5kc2q.html
Pasi Sahlberg and Trevor Cobbold explain why they think the new plan for fairer schools will fail.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2024/09/21/why-the-new-plan-fairer-schools-will-fail
All Palestinians who received Australian visas were referred to ASIO, according to confidential advice to the immigration minister, in revelations that challenge the Coalition’s claim that people fleeing Gaza were not vetted by security agencies. Natassia Chrysanthos and Olivia Ireland writes that Home Affairs documents also reveal that Palestinians leaving Gaza went through eight stages of identity verification, including checks from two federal departments as well as face-to-document verification at the Rafah border, boarding the plane and upon arrival in Australia.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/every-visa-sent-to-asio-home-affairs-advice-challenges-dutton-claim-20240920-p5kc88.html
A spate of arson attacks across Adelaide are being investigated for possible links to the illegal tobacco trade amid escalating fears the state is on the cusp of an organised crime war. Bikies and Middle Eastern organised crime gangs from Victoria, are believed to be targeting South Australia’s burgeoning, and lucrative, underground cigarette market. Sources say tensions have local authorities worried that interstate tobacco warfare – which has led to a wave of fire bombings and drive-by shootings in Victoria and NSW over the past two years – is shifting to Adelaide. Just what we need here!
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/police-courts-sa/sa-police-investigate-spate-of-adelaide-firebombings-for-underworld-tobacco-links-amid-fears-sa-on-cusp-of-crime-war/news-story/f839a08e5104a7a7a982fa256a137b7b?amp
AI-generated content on apps such as TikTok is seen as the next big thing in political messaging, with Gen Z the target for the next federal election, writes Jason Koutsoukis who explains how the major parties plan to use it.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/09/21/how-major-parties-plan-use-ai-the-next-election
“Last month, when Zali Steggall accused Peter Dutton of racism, Sky News reported that the opposition leader was seeking legal advice. Presumably he chose not to pursue it. Truth is one of the few solid defences available under defamation law”, starts The Saturday Paper’s editorial.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/editorial/2024/09/21/peter-duttons-unnamed-man
This country had one of the best-designed economic responses in the world, and one of the worst vaccine procurement processes, write Richard Holden and Stephen Hamilton who explain how Australia crushed the COVID curve and lost the race.
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/how-australia-crushed-the-covid-curve-and-lost-the-race-20240917-p5kb4o
As the gas industry wages a campaign of misinformation over her government’s stance on cooktops, the Victorian premier is navigating a course that could set a national standard for household electrification, explains Royce Kurmelovs as he describes Victoria’s path around the gas lobby.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/09/21/victorias-path-around-the-gas-lobby
Hours after the SMH published revelations of high levels of “forever chemicals” at a dam this week, NSW Health moved to get all water utilities to screen for PFAS. Ben Cubby and Carrie Fellner say the decision marks a remarkable turnaround after the government denied there was a problem.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/dramatic-turnaround-as-state-backs-widespread-water-testing-for-forever-chemicals-20240920-p5kc34.html
Education Minister Jason Clare has conceded Australia’s migrant intake remains too high as new government analysis reveals international students constitute about 7 per cent of the country’s private rental market, and more than 20 per cent in inner Sydney and Melbourne.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/minister-concedes-immigration-too-high-as-students-compete-for-city-rentals-20240920-p5kc3i.html
The Guardian reveals where property underquoting is rife in Australia – and when buyers are most likely to get stung.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/21/real-estate-property-underquoting-australia
Callum Jaspan reports that ABC managing director David Anderson has commissioned an independent review into a story published in 2022 about former commando Heston Russell with incorrect audio that went to air, after a legal notice was issued to the broadcaster but was never acted on.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/abc-failed-to-act-on-2022-legal-notice-about-heston-russell-audio-issues-20240920-p5kc96.html
Chris Minns has put private companies running council elections on notice that they could be outlawed, saying reports of three-hour delays at last Saturday’s poll were unacceptable, reports Maz Maddison. The comments sparked an immediate backlash from Fairfield Mayor Frank Carbone, whose council was one of two that used the private operator Australian Election Company. He accused the state government of a “hit job” and an effort to distract from Labor’s failure among voters.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/a-labor-party-hit-job-fury-at-move-to-outlaw-private-companies-running-council-elections-20240920-p5kc3e.html
Recently released financial records show how cash circulates around the Plymouth Brethren Christian Church and its Australian “royal family”. Michael Bachelard and Lucy Macken go into some details an tell us that the Australian Taxation Office launched an investigation into the Exclusive Brethren in March, with its “Private Wealth – Behaviours of Concern” team spending weeks conducting an “access without prior notice” raid on the global headquarters of businesses run by church members. It also raided properties in rural NSW and Western Australia. I hope the ATO really follows through!
https://www.theage.com.au/national/how-much-money-the-exclusive-brethren-s-ecosystem-really-makes-20240910-p5k9fu.html
Louise Adler tells us the things she has learnt that one can’t ask about Israel.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/these-are-the-things-i-ve-learnt-you-can-t-ask-about-israel-20240917-p5kb47.html
As reliable news disappears from the regions, what replaces it is scary, writes Grace Dudley, a regional journalist herself.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8760195/misinformation-crisis-the-decline-of-regional-news-outlets/?cs=24204
Looking at the horrible rape trial that has been going on in France, Julia Baird tells us that the idea that rapists present as monsters is a myth. Rather, they are ordinary men.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/gis-le-s-80-rapists-were-monstrous-but-not-monsters-they-were-ordinary-men-20240920-p5kc3h.html
“We cram every ideological fad into the curriculum – safe schools, reconciliation, gender theory, race theory, decolonisation, peace studies, green worship, net zero hymns and devotions – yet division, alienation, even violence, spread”, writes Greg Sheridan who calls for the banning of screens and studying the great books.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/classroom-classics-revolution-could-save-our-failing-society/news-story/eb31fd0a34c15fa555d091dc69c9653c?amp
The proportion of Victorian women having vaginal births is at an all-time low, with midwives concerned by the health impacts on mothers and babies. Henrietta Cook writes that obstetricians are attributing the trend to older, heavier mothers and a fear of birth trauma.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/older-heavier-and-empowered-record-numbers-of-mums-are-having-caesareans-20240919-p5kbt7.html
Australia has mothballed a $550m tank fleet. Ukraine would like a word, writes Matthew Knott. He reveals that, after previously appearing to rule out providing tanks to Ukraine, the government is considering its request and working with the US to make the transfer happen.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-has-mothballed-a-550m-tank-fleet-ukraine-would-like-a-word-20240919-p5kbsx.html
The world can breathe a little easier. The US Federal Reserve has come to the rescue of a global economy slowing to stall speed. It has extended a lifeline to a China sinking ever deeper into a debt-deflation trap, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. He says the Fed’s jumbo half-point cut is transmitted instantly to the 40-odd countries and currency boards linked to the US dollar in one way or another. These regions were forced to import the most aggressive tightening cycle in 40 years through their exchange rates, whether or not their local economies were synchronised with the US cycle.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/wall-street-s-party-could-end-painfully-if-the-fed-has-got-it-wrong-20240920-p5kc1a.html
The pager bombing of Hezbollah was jaw-dropping. Will it make Israel safer? Not for long, posits Jonathan Freedland.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/20/pager-bombing-hezbollah-israel-safer-diplomacy
If Trump loses, will this American carnage end? Don’t count on it, opines Nick Bryant. He describes fundamental divides that will remain whoever wins in November, a cycle so hard to break because so much history is unresolved – on race, immigration, guns and even the retelling of history itself. None of this means America is headed inexorably for civil war. Political violence, I suspect, will remain sporadic and containable. But nor should Australia and the world expect an outbreak of civil peace.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/if-trump-loses-will-this-american-carnage-end-don-t-count-on-it-20240920-p5kc22.html
When it comes to big international stories, it doesn’t get much bigger than the US election. NineFax’s North America correspondent Farrah Tomazin pulls back the curtain on life on the campaign trail.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/a-front-row-seat-to-history-20240919-p5kbym.html
Trump and Vance’s Springfield smear is a microcosm of their entire campaign, says Sidney Blumenthal.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/20/trump-vance-springfield-immigrants-avoid-abortion
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
David Rowe
Alan Moir
Matt Golding
Mark David
Jon Kudelka
Glen Le Lievre
Simon Letch
Leak
From the US
Insiders Sunday, 22 Sep
David Speers joins Sam Maiden, David Crowe and Shalailah Medhora to discuss the week as the government failed to get support for its key housing legislation. Plus Quad leaders meet in the US, childcare and workplace policy.
GUEST : Mark Butler – Health Minister
Morning all. Obviously Labor is hoping for lower interest rates from the RBA but so is everyone else. Lower rates benefits the nation not just Labor.
Whereas Dutton has launched into many lies recently (e.g. Palestinian visas) that are not only dishonest but destructive of Australia’s social cohesion.
In fact, if Dutton’s tactics continue to evolve in a Trumpian direction all other parties should call Dutton out on it. Australia before Hanson et al had one of the most successful records in multicultural society in the world.
Losing that social tolerance would be a tragedy. Look at the division in US society now. That would be on top of the racism generated by Dutton’s opposition to the Voice and indigenous Australians.
There is good reason to oppose Dutton.
Thanks BK!
Greens not getting much joy from Tingle and a fair article by Middleton. That said, the gambling issue is a worry for me. Labor better get this right, as gambling is an addiction and hence has become a public health issue. Mind you we also have alcohol to grapple with.
#weatheronPB
Sun slowly seeps through,
the dull dirty grey smudges,
clinging to the sky.
Thank you, BK!
Just when did a housing crisis not exist in “the land of sweeping plains”, “the wide brown land for me”?
I get that 2.PP might be about even, just not such a disparity between right opp and centrist gov PV.
And still about a third of the PV is not with major parties, :). [Well, two thirds of the country has it as going in the wrong direction.]
Underwhelming though the PM might be, he’s got this LOTO ‘helping’. Though for some reason the PM seems comfortable on FM radio, just not on the ABC or SBS?
(Then again when in 2016 HRC went up against TDJT, he ended up in the White House.)
It really would help if the gov can make up some term 2 aspirations, having put in a term 1 foundation, rediscover values and principles (first of all do no more harm, the many before the few, don’t be evil), perhaps it can commit to social or participative democracy, rather than going further liberal right of centre (towards where the opp cheerleading on extreme disaster capitalism already are, just watch Don’t Look Up, ‘she’ really does end up as dinosaur food) and repressive.
May be rediscover human rights given global south/ west north/ east south (the most recent UNGA vote on the Holy Land was an abstention, , seriously for troubles going back about a century, encouraged by the Poms, maintained by the Yanks …), BRICs, non-aligned, America and allies and partners and friends.
Find a way to stitch together a progress Australia, fair, alliance.
I can’t believe they can’t deal with Greens on housing, or neutralise musings of nu_c_ular from the opp.
Even RGR seemed to be able to coral a multi-party alliance and move on reforms. Though one paid for walking away from the greatest moral challenge, and the other from a there will be no …
Out of risks/ threats such as …
Governance (shore-up NACC, campaign finance reform, FoI/ whistleblowers/ journos/ activists, war powers reform, may be not republic/ monarchy but definitely removing the colonial Union Jack from the flag will signal it is serious way more than renaming/ give backs/ acknowledgement of/ welcome to country …).
Pursue a cosmopolitan, multi-cultural rather than white or black handouts and favoritism. Migrants don’t need reminding they weren’t or weren’t forever born here.
Powershift (AUKU$ review, get ready for drones and AI).
Public safety and national security then, given how pagers and walkie-talkies can do more damage that noises from Sydney’s eastern suburbs or little J’burg fifth columnists.
Climate (end blowing up humanity, stop clearing land, away from climate disruption fossil fuels/ exploration/ mining, the BoM Outlook will become lived experience after summer 2024/ 2025). Just in case you haven’t seen the reports from hotter, wetter, more extreme weather in northern hemisphere summer.
Apparenly melting ice water banding at the equator is already changing the earth’s wobble.
Inequality, may be the PM might stop showing up in high viz at Woodside and head to Aldi instead … (Comms [even the latest Nbnco by 2025 seems to be ultrafast Gbps for extended metro, superfast 100+ Mbps for regional, and Sky Muster Plus bursting to superfast with less convoluted quota for those that haven’t gone Starlink in rural/ remote], energy, housing, schools, transport, water, …).
May be move more to the territories/ states, given the FIFO that is Canberra ACT could be downsized. Allow pollyTICs to vote from electoral offices, so they live in their communities more at night and go home.
Where’s the XRRT/ royalties for gas. Norway/ Qatar seem to have build SWF for the public.
Health, access to primary care through bulk billing, access to specialists (in TAS, there’s no dollars for more emergency services, unlike a stadium …), Medicare dental.
Some of the dollars coming off the AUKU$ review can go to aged care, rather than the gov a la defined-benefit pensions and contribution-based superannuation offloading the risks to seniors (yet professing CGT, franking credits, negative gearing can’t be changed).
It should also look at GST, raising the income tax free threshold. Though I suppose stamp duty and payroll tax aren’t federal.
The most recent salient issues from JWS seemed clear, similar for other pollsters.
Ah well, PM killing season can’t be too far off.
Much apprecition BK
Appears the scourge of the tobacco wars has found itself in SA as well.
Sigh…….
If Australia gets a couple of interest rate cuts, Albo and co will squeak in again.
Hopefully the CFMEU saga will be in check by then too. So far the govt is losing bigly in the propaganda war.
If Dutton and co win next year, the CFMEU will eventually cease to exist.
So my hope is that the CFMEU administrator get its act together to clean up the union well before election in May.
Griff,
I’m on the side of you can’t be a Gambling teetotaller and Prohibitionist. Historically it hasn’t worked, just look to those Muslim countries that have an underground alcohol consumption culture that the authorities turn a blind eye to in order to keep the societal peace, not to mention the American Prohibition era, and in Australia itself, even though we haven’t banned tobacco products, we have made them so expensive that an underground market has flourished with the help of bad actors.
I see the same thing occurring if we attempt to ban gambling advertising outright. Workarounds will be found by addicts via the Dark Web and into countries where there are no limits on gambling. So, what the aim needs to be is to not create new addicts via Harm Minimisation. Don’t flood the zone with brainwashing product but instead acknowledge gambling as a fact of life which can be done responsibly. Hence, a smattering of ads here and there seems to be the only logical answer I can think of. I mean, do we really want to get rid of Lotto ads as well? That’s gambling.
Meanwhile in Melbourne town, il mercato centrale has officially opened.
It’s the first outlet to open outside of Italy.
https://www.theurbanlist.com/melbourne/a-list/il-mercato-centrale-melbourne
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 8:30 am
Griff,
I’m on the side of you can’t be a Gambling teetotaller and Prohibitionist. Historically it hasn’t worked, just look to those Muslim countries that have an underground alcohol consumption culture that the authorities turn a blind eye to in order to keep the societal peace, not to mention the American Prohibition era, and in Australia itself, even though we haven’t banned tobacco products, we have made them so expensive that an underground market has flourished with the help of bad actors.
I see the same thing occurring if we attempt to ban gambling advertising outright. Workarounds will be found by addicts via the Dark Web and into countries where there are no limits on gambling. So, what the aim needs to be is to not create new addicts via Harm Minimisation. Don’t flood the zone with brainwashing product but instead acknowledge gambling as a fact of life which can be done responsibly. Hence, a smattering of ads here and there seems to be the only logical answer I can think of. I mean, do we really want to get rid of Lotto ads as well? That’s gambling.
_______
I am not a prohibitionist. We shouldn’t conflate prohibition of the activity with banning of advertising. If we accept that advertising works (and why do you think there is such resistance? Because it works), we should not allow advertising for addictive behaviours. It worked in decreasing tobacco use. We were an international model. We need to do the same for other activities. So yes to banning lotto ads as well. It is simple health prevention.
Thanks BK for the excellent roundup. The stories by Tingle and Middleton are correct to call out the Greens on their hypocritical housing stance. You can’t complain about a problem when you oppose a solution.
Dutton also deserves the same criticism. The LNP in government started the immigration binge as an economic tool.
That being said housing is a multifaceted problem that needs multiple solutions. We need to deal with the build rate of both social housing and the broader market. We also need to deal with skills training, planning and pricing via tax changes. The problem won’t go away until we do.
After Hezbollah and Israel traded fire near their border, Israel struck a building in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, killing Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil and at least 13 other people, and wounding 66.
Israel said its “targeted strike” killed commanders who had been planning an October 7-style attack in Israel’s north.
Worth noting Bludgertrack has Labor and the LNP at 50-50 for the first time this term. If an election is held in May next year on this trend the LNP would be ahead 52-48 by then. Obviously a lot could change but Labor is clearly at risk of being a one term govt.
For the first time in more than 30 years, the Council of UC Faculty Associations filed a formal complaint against the UC system. [I/C some brownstone uni apologies …]
Read in The Intercept: https://apple.news/Azeh6tsjlQbK7bfy5gvyeZQ
Griff,
I understand where you’re coming from. I’m just trying to be meta realistic. That in the borderless digital age we have to assume that addicts will check into websites from overseas that will feed their addiction. Kind of like drug addicts buying their drugs on the Dark Web. So I just think that dialing the advertising back to the sort of levels we had before it all exploded to the level it’s at now, where there were still people who became addicted to gambling, it wasn’t the case that they became addicted via watching the odd ad for the TAB or whatever, they became addicted via the physical act of the gambling process. So, in a free society, which I believe in, we should allow a well-regulated environment. Maybe ‘plain packaging’ ads only of a restricted number?
Also, the banning of tobacco advertising doesn’t seem to have had the desired effect of drawing people completely away from cigarette smoking and instead the underworld has become involved in the illegal tobacco trade. So, as someone whose great grandmother was the local SP bookie, I just know that something will spring up if the government tries the outright ban mode. And anyway, the Coalition would just campaign on it in the election campaign, as would the gambling industry (have you seen the Rugby League team sponsored by PalmerBet?) and the Coalition would reverse it in government. Better to stymie an obvious Coalition campaign tool and keep everyone in the tent with a reasonable compromise.
Hello!
Boomers are alive. They live in the world of today. They are fighting the battles of today. What life was like during all their lifetimes is relevant because they lived and they learned and they absorbed.
My point stands. PageBoi’s perspectives based on his memory are pathetically limited.
———–
Telling young people how pathetic they are and how awesome you are because you worked a 40 hour week is the reason why OK Boomer is a thing. He stated some perfectly reasonable points of view and you called him a 2 year old and launched into a bunch of Grandpa in the corner at Christmas stuff.
The problem is there were never valid reasons for throwing the Morrison Government out.
They’d been there too long?
How is that a reason?
As far as interest rates are concerned, I have good news and bad news for the Labor Party:
The GOOD news is that the next move by the RBA on interest rates will be down, the BAD news is that the RBA may not move before the election.
I don’t buy the view from some economists that most parts of the world have been able to cut rates BECAUSE they had more aggressively hiked rates than Australia. Their inflation problems were worse than Australia which forced more aggressive hikes. The difference is that they now seem to have inflation more under control.
I sense an element of stagflation in the Australian economy – just an element.
If we do have stagflation for real – it’s bye bye Albo, hello PM Dutton.
There were plenty of good reasons, Badthinker. Historical revisionism won’t wishcast them away.
A new video on Australia’s Sypaq cardboard drones being used in Ukraine. The video’s a bit naff, but the audio makes a good background podcast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8P8Wp14na8
“Australia’s debate over nuclear power is going nowhere … says Angela Macdonald-Smith.”
The debate is going exactly where the policy is going.
I note BludgerTrack 2025 on the 2.PP has the gov down 2.1% and the opp up 2.1% since the 2022 Federal Australian Election.
Badthinkersays:
Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 9:08 am
[The problem is there were never valid reasons for throwing the Morrison Government out.
They’d been there too long?
How is that a reason?]
For anyone able to say that with a straight face is testimony to Australian sense of humour and complete disinterest in the facts of the matter and the so rarely used disclosure of truth and honesty by a government.
The existence of things like Robodebt, Stuart Robert, Morrison’s holiday, payments to businesses during COVID, the sexual proclivity of Morrison’s ministers, dispersal of regional funds and selective by awarding of government contracts was enough to disqualify the LNP government of Morrison for an eternity.
You’re not as weird as FUBAR but you’ll get there.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-21/inside-the-murdoch-family-power-struggle/, I am no fan of Murdoch Infotainment, let alone Fox (Sky)News Australia, or in Fizza’s words Angertainment, though it’ll be interesting where the 1 +3 + 2 kids end up.
So far it would seem ex-wife number two made the right moves, then.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 9:08 am
Griff,
I understand where you’re coming from. I’m just trying to be meta realistic. That in the borderless digital age we have to assume that addicts will check into websites from overseas that will feed their addiction. Kind of like drug addicts buying their drugs on the Dark Web. So I just think that dialing the advertising back to the sort of levels we had before it all exploded to the level it’s at now, where there were still people who became addicted to gambling, it wasn’t the case that they became addicted via watching the odd ad for the TAB or whatever, they became addicted via the physical act of the gambling process. So, in a free society, which I believe in, we should allow a well-regulated environment. Maybe ‘plain packaging’ ads only of a restricted number?
Also, the banning of tobacco advertising doesn’t seem to have had the desired effect of drawing people completely away from cigarette smoking and instead the underworld has become involved in the illegal tobacco trade. So, as someone whose great grandmother was the local SP bookie, I just know that something will spring up if the government tries the outright ban mode. And anyway, the Coalition would just campaign on it in the election campaign, as would the gambling industry (have you seen the Rugby League team sponsored by PalmerBet?) and the Coalition would reverse it in government. Better to stymie an obvious Coalition campaign tool and keep everyone in the tent with a reasonable compromise.
_________
The evidence is that a complete ban on tobacco advertising works better than a partial ban. See https://www.tobaccoinaustralia.org.au/chapter-11-advertising/11-1-the-merits-of-banning-tobacco-advertising
Go to 11.1.5 at the bottom of the page for an evidence summary. There is plenty more if you want.
You are right that those that are currently addicted to gambling may still gamble. Banning of advertising is about prevention (both primary and secondary). We need additional measures to help those that are currently addicted.
Now as for the politics, that is the rub. Who would have foreseen that the mining industry would have been able to win public sentiment over the Rudd government. I can well believe that the gambling industry/Sports industry conglomerate could go one better. When your sports code of choice is in favour of gambling advertising, it could sway your vote.
Edit: I should add the media into the vested interests against banning of gambling advertising.
If Albanese wants to look strong and show that he is on the side of the people and not the gambling industry, he MUST implement a total ban on gambling advertising.
To be more specific, gambling on sports and horse racing. The gambling companies have crossed the line when it comes to sports betting, and the odds are so disgraceful with horse racing that I call it cheating – people need protection.
Don’t bet on horse racing, it’s impossible to win given the odds -you can do much better with your money!
From exploding phones to low flying jets causing sonic booms, the IDF is terrorising the people of Lebanon. Israel has become a rogue state hell bent on escalating war against Hezbollah and Iran, with the aim of dragging America into a major regional war.
But there are many Jewish voices who do not agree with the policies of the state of Israel.
Like 80 year old holocaust survivor Professor Veronika Cohen, who spent her birthday outside of an Israeli prison protesting against the indefinite detention of Palestinians without trial:
“At a time, particularly during this crucial moment, when you think there are no more hearts left to break, mine shattered upon learning about the deplorable conditions endured by Palestinian detainees”
Like the Jewish Council of Australia:
“ We reject the assertion that Jews and the State of Israel are one and the same, or that all Jewish people support, without criticism, the actions of the Israeli government and military.
Pro-Israel Jewish organisations, that do not recognise the diversity of views among Australian Jews, do not speak for us.
While we have diverse views on many issues, we are united in our opposition to Israel’s continued policies aimed at the destruction of Palestinian life. We are opposed to the Israeli occupation and the prioritisation of the rights of Jewish people over the rights of Palestinians.”
https://www.jewishcouncil.com.au/who-we-are
Lol. Hate to break it to you Badthinker but voters in no less than 18 seats had reasons to vote Morrison out. Being there too long was probably way down the motive list below a raft of other motives including the fact he was, essentially, an asshole.
Yep, climate change. I hate wearing too many clothes. I’m wearing a top and undies, it’s cold. Do I put on some more clothes or put on the air-con?
Oh bugger it, I’ll put on the air-con 😀 😀
It’ll get warmer on Sydney grand final weekend for sure 🙂