YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)

Labor maintains level pegging in the latest YouGov poll despite a drop on the primary vote and a further weakening in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

YouGov seems to be back in its three-weekly schedule of federal polling, the latest result showing no change on a tied two-party vote despite movement in the Coalition’s favour on the primary: specifically, Labor is down two points to 30% and the Coalition is up two to 39%. The two-party stasis is presumably down to rounding plus the effect on preferences of a one-point increase for the Greens to 14% and a one-point drop for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have taken a dive, his approval down five to 36% and disapproval up six to 58%, while Peter Dutton is up two to 40% and down three to 50%. Albanese still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister, in from 43-38 to 42-39. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1619.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

442 comments on “YouGov: 50-50 (open thread)”

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  1. You Greens need to reel it back.

    You are smelling napalm when it is just brouhaha.

    Keep on pushing for a Dutton government if you want, I don’t think that will serve your needs though.

  2. Fess at 7.56pm
    So which politics do you think i come from?
    The australian version of the crazy looney monster party perhaps. Wouldn’t that be crowded with you, bore and cat already occupying the room.
    Happy to join in, even for a mini ‘sit in’.

  3. Hey Been There,
    Haven’t seen you on the site for a while.
    The Greens v Labor war was in full scale on Weds & Thurs last week. There was a pause for a couple of days, but it appears to be back on tonight. I walked into the Wednesday fight by accident, and quickly left. The LNP posters are sitting off & quiet, probably cracking open a beer and scrolling through it.
    Newspoll (if it comes) will settle (or set off) the site in about 53 minutes.
    Can’t keep me away from a poll!

  4. @Been there

    You’re a good egg mate and full respect, but doesn’t there come a time when you look at the ‘achievements’ of the current government, and look at where a fair chunk of their legislation came from, and wonder what the difference is between the current mob and the coalition?

  5. The difference between Prime Minister Albanese and former Prime Minister Morrison:

    The post Covid economy stabilized. Tick.
    A million new jobs. Tick.
    Unemployment down to 4.2%. Tick.
    Participation rate at the highest level ever. Tick.
    Women’s participation in national life enhanced dramatically. Tick.
    Vast improvements to paid parental leave. Tick.
    Real wage decline reversed. Tick.
    The NDIS reformed. Tick.
    $4.7 billion national domestic violence package. Tick.
    National Budget repair. Tick.
    The biggest Aged Care Package reform this century. Pending. Currently being held up by Bandt and Dutton.
    More funding for social housing than any federal government his century. Tick. More to come if Bastard Bandt can get out of the way.
    Repaired the fractured $20 billion trade relationship with China. Tick.
    Rescued the Pacific from the damage done by the Coalition. Tick.
    Inflation trending down. Tick.
    Industrial relations reform. Tick.
    Systemic improvements to access to cheaper medicines. Tick.
    AAT reform. Tick.
    43/30 Tick.
    300,000 free TAFE places. Tick.
    Huge increase in wages of lowest paid workers in feminized industries. Tick.
    Eliminated corruption from the Federal government after ten years of crooks and liars corrupting the joint. Tick.

    The full list of Bandt’s achievements:

    The full list of the Greens achievements over 35 years:

  6. PageBoi @ #358 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 8:43 pm

    @Been there

    You’re a good egg mate and full respect, but doesn’t there come a time when you look at the ‘achievements’ of the current government, and look at where a fair chunk of their legislation came from, and wonder what the difference is between the current mob and the coalition?

    You’ll see the difference when your new Council, full of former Liberals who thought the Turnbull Liberals were too soft and so went off to form the Liberal Democrats, now Libertarians, take over the running of the Mid North Coast Council and rip your precious environment up there to shreds. Pity none of the so-called by you, enlightened Independents, were successful. I always knew you were talking through your hat about them. You live in La La Land if you think one will ever be successful federally as well. Maybe as a result of who you have ended up with up there it might teach you to open your eyes about the actual differences between Labor and Liberal/Libertarian. I won’t hold my breath. There are none so blind as those who will not see.

  7. Jill Stein is the Greens icing on Trump’s cake.
    Bandt is the Greens icing on Dutton’s cake.

    Jill Stein is a Russian troll. She will say and do whatever she can to advance the interests of Russia in ways that downplay America’s capacity to act in that area.

    Bandt is an environment and climate change troll. He will do and say whatever he can to silence the issues of environment and climate change in ways that downplay Australia’s capacity to act in these areas.

  8. C@t,

    That’s nice, seeing as I don’t live on the mid coast, so my number of shits given for that council are a nice round number (zero)

    I was actually just talking to been there and Nicholas, definitely not the bore, not yourself. Well done to you for your efforts in the recent elections, but otherwise you and I would agree on very little so I’d rather leave it there

  9. I think Australia is fertile ground for Official Monster Raving Loony Party or similar, as we have compulsory voting. Perhaps it could be started in Woy Woy?

  10. Boerwar
    Your point was that the NDIS has nothing to do with disability employment.

    My point was that the NDIS supports people with a disability to enter employment.

    Further Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison ran the NDIS into the ground.

    Prime Minister Albanese has saved it.
    ———————————–
    NDIS is not about what the Royal Commission told Albo to do about employment.

  11. Vlad @ #355 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 8:32 pm

    Fess at 7.56pm
    So which politics do you think i come from?
    The australian version of the crazy looney monster party perhaps. Wouldn’t that be crowded with you, bore and cat already occupying the room.
    Happy to join in, even for a mini ‘sit in’.

    Have you figured out which party has had the most Muslim candidates at the Local, State and Federal level yet, Vlad? You never did get back to me. Muslims who actually haven’t been scared away from the ALP by the noisemakers in The Greens and their sympathy play for votes over the issue of Palestine. You really are a nasty person who has lit upon the blog lately to throw abuse and your weight around, but who we can clearly see is a lightweight. Your derogatory comments about myself, Confessions and Boerwar don’t hurt me and they don’t impress me either for being cuttingly accurate. I just see it as student politics level flim flam.

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 9:01 pm
    Griff @ #368 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 8:58 pm

    “I think Australia is fertile ground for Official Monster Raving Loony Party or similar, as we have compulsory voting. Perhaps it could be started in Woy Woy?”

    What makes you say that about Woy Woy in particular?

    __________

    Spike Milligan of course! 🙂

  13. PageBoi

    I think you’re a good egg too.

    Labor and Greens need to work better together.

    Bandt isn’t the one you need to do it.

    Cheers.

  14. Jill Stein is a russian troll.
    Wendy Deng is a Chinese spy.
    Fess, you’re losing it.

    Been There – even though you’re anti green, respect to you anyway, although horse gambling is bad. Think of the poor little foals. Please.

  15. Your point was that the NDIS has nothing to do with disability employment.

    My point was that the NDIS supports people with a disability to enter employment.

    Further Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison ran the NDIS into the ground.

    Prime Minister Albanese has saved it.

    Royal Commissions make recommendations. They don’t tell anyone to do anything because they can’t.

  16. Griff @ #372 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 9:03 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 9:01 pm
    Griff @ #368 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 8:58 pm

    “I think Australia is fertile ground for Official Monster Raving Loony Party or similar, as we have compulsory voting. Perhaps it could be started in Woy Woy?”

    What makes you say that about Woy Woy in particular?

    __________

    Spike Milligan of course! 🙂

    Oh, of course! I thought your reference was to the current state of the inhabitants of Woy Woy! My bad.

  17. Cat at 8.43 pm, Confessions at 8.56 pm

    The one indignity that Putin has not yet imposed on women in Russia is importing from the US the GOP dogma against abortion.

    Any thesis about Putin having a significant influence on US politics lacks perspective.

    In the old days of the Cold War Soviet officials used to say that any serious negotiations had to await the outcome of the US elections, usually a hiatus of at least a year and often more.

    It would appear that an end to Netanyahu’s war may have to wait until Harris takes over, unless the large and growing protests in Israel displace the main obstacle to peace from his current refusal to do any deal.

    Harris said clearly that his war should stop. Netanyahu is on borrowed time. Unfortunately, the same does not apply to Putin.

  18. Boerwar
    Royal Commissions make recommendations. They don’t tell anyone to do anything because they can’t.
    ——————
    If Albo doesn’t do something i wont be voting for him.

  19. I think this site has a lot of potential candidates for the Australian version of the Raving Looney Monster Party. PB is branch stacked with them. I’m happy to put my name up as the Prez if it comes to it.
    Ok, enough nonsense, and enough of the Greens v Labor drivvel.
    In half an hour, we’ll hopefully have a newspoll and a new thread.

  20. Been There says:
    Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 9:04 pm
    PageBoi

    I think you’re a good egg too.

    Labor and Greens need to work better together.

    Bandt isn’t the one you need to do it.

    Cheers.

    ________

    Albanese was able to work with them during the Gillard parliament. The problem is that The Greens have Max waiting in the wings who is an even bigger conflict politician. There must be a better option for The Greens. Perhaps they will choose Sarah Hanson-Young as someone that has a strong voice but is also able to negotiate.

  21. Vlad

    It’s a harsh industry horse racing.

    In a perfect world foals would thrive in green paddocks and retired racehorses would live in a forever green paddock.

    I’m sad about that.

    I hear you and lots of others.

    We need government to ensure that from foaling to retirement all animals involved in gambling have their welfare as the number one priority.

  22. Cheers been there!

    Apropos of nothing but I had a deckie land a 120cm kingfish on my boat motorboat last week, stonker would have gone 18kg. Some delicious sashimi from that

    Also got a 19kg bar cod on a jig out of 170m , all by hand no electrics
    .I do love sending a 500gm jig down in 200m

  23. Interesting about opinion polls is that they really account for nothing much until right close to an election.
    UK Labour gained power and is there for the next 5 years or so…..It seems ‘new’ Labour – at least according to recent polls – has so-say, lost a lot of support.
    What difference does that make now? None at all…..
    Same applies in Oz……Polling for Labor not all that wonderful over the last few months but really it is the few weeks before the election which counts.
    Lost track of the number of times Labor has lead the LNP by something like 52-48, only to see the polls “tighten” during the election campaign and the LNP going on to gain government.
    Having said this, when the gap is huge – as seems to be the case in Queensland – then it probably does mean the of a tired three-term Labor government there. Such is politics…..

  24. “Jill Stein is the Greens icing on Trump’s cake.
    Bandt is the Greens icing on Dutton’s cake.”

    @Boerwar

    I think Democrats in America are too closely alligned to the right in America which plays in the part disillusionment of the Left. For all whingeing about Labor universal healthcare and everyone being able have access to university, and decent sick pay/holiday can happen over here not like America.

    However, it doesn’t mean Boerwar you don’t have a point. Because you do, Sarah Hanson-Young comments have reinforced it. She’s virtually doing the bidding for Dutton.

    “I think people are wondering right across the country, what is wrong with this government?

    Can’t they just be better?

    Can’t the prime minister just be better and not so crap?”

  25. Not really sorry cat, about 2 hours from here to port, and port is the northern end of mid coast council which extends all the way past Taree

  26. Boerwar @ #375 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 9:05 pm

    Jill Stein is a Greens doing what Greens do best: achieve nothing of substance while feeding Trump and Dutton.

    Nah she’s a Russian asset. And besides, she’s only in this race because West refused to take up the Greens cudgels and the GOP needed a Dems spoiler on the national vote. Enter Stein.

  27. The “pile on” with regard to Mr Albanese by the media, the opposition, the Greens and some poll bludgers will continue.
    Tonight’s News poll will temper it at best but more than likely inflate the hyperbole regarding Albanese and Labor.

  28. PageBoi

    Good to see a serious fisho here!

    Toss up between a big Kingfish cutlet or a Spanish Mackerel cutlet on the barbie!

    I’ll have both thanks!

  29. michael says:
    Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 9:19 pm

    The last time the LNP lead a Newspoll was 28-11-2020.
    If it happens tonight does a new session of the killing season re-commence.
    _______
    That’s what everybody is secretly wondering. And also wondering if Littlefinger’s bizarre Vice Chancellor move is an end game maneuver.

  30. Err labor you signed this week a trade agreement with the UAE where homosexuality is illegal.

    Mardi Gras visit by a labor Minister in the future will be interesting.

  31. We’re a bit weird here in Coffs, the continental shelf is the closest of the entire east coast, and we have a spine of the great dividing range come down too so we have this absolutely lovely microclimate, we’re famous for it

    We still get a lovely winter but our summer is awesome, not too hot. And the fishing is just amazing

  32. Confessions says:
    Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 9:25 pm
    Boerwar @ #375 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 9:05 pm

    “Jill Stein is a Greens doing what Greens do best: achieve nothing of substance while feeding Trump and Dutton.”

    Nah she’s a Russian asset. And besides, she’s only in this race because West refused to take up the Greens cudgels and the GOP needed a Dems spoiler on the national vote. Enter Stein.

    _________

    This didn’t look great for Stein: https://www.newsweek.com/jill-stein-vladimir-putin-war-criminal-1954965

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