Evidence is starting to emerge of a strengthening in Kamala Harris’s position in the wake of last week’s debate, and while this hardly amounts to a paradigm shift in terms of the popular vote – after rounding to whole numbers, The Economist’s poll aggregate records no change from Harris’s 50-46 lead when the debate was held on September 10 – it’s been enough to move forecast models substantially in her favour. Nate Silver’s model is the most striking case in point, with Trump’s win probability falling from 59.7% to 52.0% just over the past few days, having peaked at 64.4% the day before the debate. After bouncing around 52-48 for a couple of weeks, The Economist’s probability reading now has Harris leading 57-43. FiveThirtyEight’s model remains the most bullish for the Democrats, putting Harris’s win probability at 63%. More from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation.
This guy has (very) early voting numbers from Virginia, North Carolina and Florida – explains his assumptions about them and then plugs them into his models…
The results may shock you
https://youtu.be/KS5wLKCWgco?si=x3XJHGFeeAP85AQ8
C@tmomma says Thursday, September 26, 2024 at 11:28 am
He’s harking back to when things were “great”. It’s a form of nostalgia, his supporters treat this as more like a metaphor than an actual call for Carson to go back on the air. It’s really a call to go back to a simpler past when there were lots of well paying blue collar jobs, people knew their place and America was number one. It’s all BS, if people went back say 50 years it would be 1974, Nixon would have just resigned, inflation was through the roof (11.9%), interest rates were crippling (Federal Funds Effective Rate was 11.34%), the economy was in a two year recession, the Dow was nearing the end of a two year bear market, crime was becoming a serious issue and the country was experiencing the domestic and international hangover after the end of the Vietnam War.
50 years ago was not a time of peace and tranquility. If anything, the US was close to it’s lowest ebb since WW2.
His supporters do not see his talking about bringing back Carson as evidence of cognitive decline because they don’t for one moment think that he believes Carson is still alive.
Probs already posted, Kimmel & his partner giving Frump a massive serve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOIPRfadAP8
New thread.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/09/19/us-presidential-election-minus-seven-weeks/comment-page-13/#comment-4374057
bc – good post.