Federal polls: Freshwater Strategy and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two new poll results, one very grim for federal Labor, the other merely mediocre.

Two new federal poll results, one of which I reckon to be Labor’s equal worst result of the term, together with a Roy Morgan poll from early June:

• The latest monthly result from Freshwater Strategy for the Financial Review has the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 42% (up one), Greens 12% (steady). Anthony Albanese is down a point on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval to 49%, while Peter Dutton is down three to 34% and down two to 38%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 45-41. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1057.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 50.5-49-5 on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (up half), Coalition 37.5% (up one), Greens 12.5% (down two) and One Nation 5.5% (down half). The two-party measure based on 2022 election preference flows has Labor’s lead unchanged at 52-48, which is a little better for Labor than I would expect based on the reported primary votes. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,467 comments on “Federal polls: Freshwater Strategy and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. “The govt does not have a majority in the Senate. Greens voters didn’t vote for them to be a rubber stamp for Labor. If Labor wants to take a take it or leave it approach that’s there own misguided problem that is not reflective of their position in the Senate. Instead of whinging about blocking they should sit down and negotiate with the Greens and work out something they can both live with.”

    mj, it’s amazing how many posters here refuse to accept this simple truth, this new reality, where Labor’s primary is so low they will never govern without Green preferences, where they will never own the Senate.

    Albanese is a disaster. A career politician who lied about being a friend of Palestine in his student days to make a name for himself in the Labor left, who knifed the NSW Labor left on his way to the top, who lied about having left beliefs – because he has no real beliefs at all. And now the Greens won’t kneel before him, he’ll blame them for his failure. And he can’t deal with anyone – not even David Pocock , who comes across as a smart, decent man.

    Albanese is a narcissist. He thinks he’s better than everyone else. He thinks he should be admired. He lacks empathy (raise the dole above poverty level!). He blames others for his failures. He is a very strange combination of weakness and arrogance.

    Albanese is a disaster for the Labor party and he’s a disaster for Australia. He could well become a one term loser who achieved nothing during a cost of living and housing crisis. That Dutton, with his meaness and madness, is even within spitting distance of being PM is Albanese’s fault.

  2. Gee, I wonder why it’s hard for Labor to negotiate with the Greens when you have Greens MPs accusing Albanese of being pro genocide and a dozen other nasty false accusations besides and their faithful echoers like Eddy here screaming he’s a disaster and a liar, and then you still want to castigate Labor for not surrendering enough to Greens demands.

    There’s absolutely nothing to suggest Labor has taken a “take it or leave it” attitude or demanded the Greens be a rubber stamp despite this. That’s just a line that you stooges sing to feel smugly justified in your ranting.

    Actually, the history of this term suggests that Labor is willing to negotiate – even with people who publicly denigrate Labor outrageously – to get things passed. Because they have. One might think the ones that keep balk at negotiating are actually the Greens. We certainly know that they wouldn’t negotiate on the CFMEU legislation, which you’d think should have been much easier to negotiate an outcome with the Greens than with the Coalition and yet it didn’t happen that way.

    Apparently when the Greens publicly hold the line for what they want that’s strong, but if Labor does it that’s arrogance.

    Labor and the Greens should be able to be friends even while disagreeing, like the Libs and Nats. There’s a reason Greens voters and Labor voters usually preference the other one. Unfortunately Bandt has led the Greens down this path where they can’t disagree civilly – they have to disagree with maximum invective. And some of their supporters like you follow that lead. It’s terrible for progressive politics in this country, but we can’t exactly stop you, just make sure your crap doesn’t go unchallenged.

    I mean, the Greens used to be pretty pacifist, and now we’ve got a Green like you advocating for violent protest and people you don’t agree with to be bombed. But yeah it’s Albo who’s the horrible person, sure.

  3. Labor atm just wants to put its bills, without negotiation to the Senate so it can say see the Greens are blocking their agenda knowing full well it’s not going to pass. Labor would rather see their own bill fail then improved, not a great tactic to win progressive voters.

  4. “ We certainly know that they wouldn’t negotiate on the CFMEU legislation”

    Arky, why would the Greens want any part of Labor’s union busting legislation, that has led to hundreds of union representatives losing there jobs without due legal process, that the Liberals will use to destroy the Labor movement once they’re back in power?

    Albanese dealing with Dutton. Albanese betraying the working people.

  5. Miles says he can still win. That’s quaint.

    Well, the alternative is admitting defeat like Zak Kirkup did, and look what happened to him.

    55-45 obviously isn’t good for Qld Labor, but it’s a damn sight better than 2012. Even if they lose a few extra to the Greens on the side, they’ll still have 25-30 seats, so they can be a functional opposition.

  6. Proof that punters expect Labour to fix 14 years of Conservative shit in a year. Same as they do here. Fix 10 yrs of shit in 3 years:

    “Labour will struggle to blame the Tories if the state of the country has not improved by next year, according to a poll.

    Research by Savanta found that at the moment Brits narrowly say Keir Starmer is entitled to point to the difficult legacy he inherited, by 48 per cent to 44 per cent who disagreed.

    But that balance shifts after a year in power, with 50 per cent insisting there will be no passing the buck by that stage compared to 42 per cent who argued it was still valid.

    The stark figures emerged on the eve of Labour conference in Liverpool, and with Chancellor Rachel Reeves gearing up to deliver what could be a grim Budget on October 30.”

  7. nadia88 says:
    Friday, September 20, 2024 at 6:29 pm
    Latest YouGov Poll:
    (Comparison figures with their last poll), and hat tip to KB for mentioning this upcoming poll last Sunday.
    Sample: 1619 (Good sample)
    Poll Period: 13-19 Sept

    * ALP 30% (down 2)
    * LNP 39% (up 2) Gosh, another LNP primary heading towards 40%
    * GRN 14% (up 1). LB, Page & Vlad will be happy
    * Pauline 7% (down 1).
    * Others 10% (steady)

    Their 2PP 50-50 evens

    ———————————

    In June 2010, during the popular Rudd government when opinion polling was Labor 52: 48 LNP, Labor’s Faceless men ( Bill Shorten, Don Farrell, plus others now left parliament) felt it was time to get the numbers to kick Rudd out.
    Rudd had won 83 HoR seats for Labor in 2007, unlikely he would have lost the 11 in the 2010 election that Gillard as PM did. 7 of these were electorates in Queensland.

    Strangely, voters liked the social democratic government of Kevin Rudd.
    Who had ideas for many good policies ( check on Google) including being willing to state ‘climate change is the greatest moral challenge of our time’.
    Something you won’t hear Albo or Bowen say, especially as the report on the dangers ahead with the increase in global warming from burning fossil fuels, presented to Labor in December 2022 has been concealed from voters.
    Much better to waste $368billion plus on AUKUS and other defence purchases.
    Labor lost 4 elections after that.
    In 2010 (Labor 72: 73 LNP)
    In 2013, 2016, 2019.
    Shortens unpopularity after the removal of Rudd, probably contributed to these 4 losses.
    I wonder if Labor ever again will win 83 HoR seats?

  8. ALP 30 Greens 14 these numbers are worrying. Once it was a matter of the ALP picking up the Greens vote. These are Poll numbers and the greens tend not to get this vote at an election. But if and it is a big if it gets closer to 27 to 17 numbers, this was carried over to an election…It is time for the ALP to declare war on these lunes. Even as a conservative I want a strong tough opposition, well… after a goodly period of I told you so. All this talk of the young vote being progressive may not be as wonderful for the ALP as they have been banging on about.

  9. I don’t know enough about history, politics, religions, and whatever in the Middle East but I wish they would stop fecking shooting at each other. It has not solved any problems yet and I doubt it ever will.

    I guess the killing will stop when everyone gets sick of it but we are a long way from that scenario at this time.

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