Two new federal poll results, one of which I reckon to be Labor’s equal worst result of the term, together with a Roy Morgan poll from early June:
• The latest monthly result from Freshwater Strategy for the Financial Review has the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 42% (up one), Greens 12% (steady). Anthony Albanese is down a point on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval to 49%, while Peter Dutton is down three to 34% and down two to 38%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 45-41. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1057.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 50.5-49-5 on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (up half), Coalition 37.5% (up one), Greens 12.5% (down two) and One Nation 5.5% (down half). The two-party measure based on 2022 election preference flows has Labor’s lead unchanged at 52-48, which is a little better for Labor than I would expect based on the reported primary votes. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.
Mavis says:
Friday, September 20, 2024 at 7:23 pm
That’s an interesting claim. Can’t say I have met any Kiwis who have moved here for the bulk billing.
For PageBoi
Complete list of substantial Greens national achievements since the turn of the century:
BK
Why would you expect rationality to be determinative on this issue when it so rarely guides how ‘people’ decide any other aspect of public policy?
A lot come here (586,020 as of 2022) as they’re attracted by bulk billing and the PBS. And under the Tory leader, they’re likely to increase their numbers.
Dutts sent a few back as Home Affairs Minister too.
Teals are running in Dickson could be a sleeper issue there?
FUBAR:
Friday, September 20, 2024 at 7:25 pm
[‘That’s an interesting claim. Can’t say I have met any Kiwis who have moved here for the bulk billing.’]
We have around 20 Kiwi tenants and most of them say that’s expressly why they moved here. And all are 65 years and over, with the result they will at some stage clog up our hospitals & aged-care facilities. Living in Oz is far cheaper all around than it is in NZ.
Howdy Mavis!
I got the impression during the week you were laid up somewhere so I hope all’s well with you.
Obviously footy take’s priority for posters, over a YouGov poll drop, so I suppose we’ll all catch up for Newspoll in 2 days time.
WB will deal with YouGov tomorrow.
Surely a key safeguard for the storage of nuclear waste is certainty and consistency of custodianship during the period of its dangerous radioactivity?
Now, historically, how many regimes have survived that long?
Looking forward to a Dutton led minority government trying to get legislation repealing the ban on nuclear power through the House and Senate.
He comes across as a master negotiator. Not.
I suspect he wouldn’t even try.
Badthinker:
Friday, September 20, 2024 at 7:33 pm
[‘Dutts sent a few back as Home Affairs Minister too.
Teals are running in Dickson could be a sleeper issue there?’]
That he did & he gloated about it. I recall one chap who spent nearly all his life in OZ but was sent back to NZ due to his criminal record, which wasn’t that bad. He seemed to enjoy exercising his powers under section 501 of the Migration Act. As for Dickson, I think he’ll be safe as his constituents probably like the chance of living in an electorate where their member could end up in the Lodge.
BW at 7:29.
Nice listicle, thanks BW.
My only AFL “tips” (hopes) so far have been on the Lions so the finals have been great so far.
For this weekend
AFL
Swans
Lions
NRL
Any Qld teams left in
nadia88:
Friday, September 20, 2024 at 7:37 pm
[Howdy Mavis!
I got the impression during the week you were laid up somewhere so I hope all’s well with you.’]
Howdy, nadia. Yes, I was in Pindarra Hospital for 4 days, but all’s good & I learnt to use my iPhone to post. Thanks for the poll drop.
[‘Obviously footy take’s priority for posters, over a YouGov poll drop, so I suppose we’ll all catch up for Newspoll in 2 days time.
WB will deal with YouGov tomorrow.’]
I’m not keen on League but I have the TV on in the background. I’m looking forward to Newspoll. I think Labor’s PV will be in the low 30s.
BK (from earlier)
“ How can people currently make a rational decision when asked if they are favorable or not to nuclear power for Australia?”
How can anyone believe a word of what Dutton says about nuclear power now, given the pack of lies he and Morrison told us about nuclear submarines before the last election?? No details, no cost, no funding, vague promises of timing that have proven impossible to fulfill.
Dutton was a first year uni dropout who never studied physics at high school level and then became a Qld cop. He wouldn’t have a clue.
Dutton also is another Liberal non-comprehender of climate science. He neither knows nor cares what happens if the world gives up on fighting climate change.
So I see two possible outcomes of electing Dutton and his nuclear power “policy”:
1. It never happens and we keep burning coal for two centuries
2. We keep burning coal for 20 years while committing to an insanely overpriced nuclear power station contract with a UK company that every LNP minister has bought shares in. Happy days in the Rolls Royce boardroom. (No competitive tenders of course). AUKUS will look cheap by comparison.
Sydney look great but what happens when they come up against Geelong again in the GF?
They will shit themselves.
Rossmcg @ 7.39PM,
If Dutton gets in, he’ll probably force a fight with the states over Section 85 (Parts 2 or 3) of the Constitution. This is to get the ball rolling and those sections of the constitution refer to aquisition of state lands.
If the states (realistically ALP states) resist, he’ll blame the states for “increased power prices”, and then demand they maintain their existing coal and gas mines & infrastructure. He’ll be propped up by elements of the media as well. This is exactly what other posters have referred too (ie: the continuance of coal & gas is really the main game).
If the states continue to resist, then I believe Dutton will be quite capable of forcing a DD, down the track. He will be bolstered (egged on) by QLD/outback NSW, rural VIC and NT politicians who will have significant margins after the next election.
At the moment, we are heading to the “right’ gaining a 4.7% swing on primaries, going by the bludgertrack averages. This figure has been pointed out by several posters on this site this past month, and tonight it was updated, and again increased in the LNP/Right favour. The site will digest tomorrow after WB has assessed the latest YouGov.
Anyway, over to the footy I suppose
Kiwis heading for recession.
Fed labor government in Australia is a mess labors education minister is attacking his parties own immigration policy.
Dutton was a first year uni dropout who never studied physics at high school level and then became a Qld cop. He wouldn’t have a clue.
______________
Yeah but when searching for national leaders you really need someone with the utmost confidence that they are worthy of being PM while having as little accomplishments as possible.
It suddenly occurred to me that there is a huge difference in lived experience between posters like PageBoi and us Boomers. Australia’s youf like PageBoi grew up in a golden era. Boomers have experienced ups and downs and seen it all before. Boomer parents had it incredibly much harder. Unemployment in the Great Depression was 32%, for example. Destitution for hundreds of thousands of Australians was total.
Since WW2:
Highest inflation rate: 23%. Currently 3.8%.
Highest unemployment rate: 11%. Currently 4.2%
Highest interest rate: 17%. Currently 4.35%
Life expectancy in 1950: 66. Currently 81 years.
Medicare in 1950: zero. Currently, general.
War trauma in 1950: general; war trauma among younger Australian born Aussie citizens: zip.
Sorry to hear you were laid up in hospital Mavis. I thought something was wrong, but glad you are out.
Hope all is good in your part of the world.
Per newspoll – gosh, I think the ALP primary will sink in two days time. Prob just on 30%.
Anyway, catch up for Newspoll. We’ll see I suppose!
Boerwar
“ War trauma in 1950: general; war trauma among younger Australian born Aussie citizens: zip.”
This is also one of the things that bothers me about Australia’s post Howard generation of ADF senior leadership. The oldest among them have never experienced a war where Australia suffered significant losses, like Vietnam.
For most, war has been a low risk means of career advancement, witness the decorations of Afghanistan “frontline” commanders based in the Persian Gulf.
The risks of signing up Australia for a war with China have been glossed over in their enthusiastic embrace of AUKUS and US foreign policy.
Snow 2.0 is a Liberal stuff up. The liberals prefer small government which means they want to do nothing. When they have to do something they completely stuff up. Thinking subs, vaccines, NBN, letting the NDIS become a dog’s breakfast etc)
They do ‘No’ really well though.
‘Socrates says:
Friday, September 20, 2024 at 8:13 pm
Boerwar
“ War trauma in 1950: general; war trauma among younger Australian born Aussie citizens: zip.”
This is also one of the things that bothers me about Australia’s post Howard generation of ADF senior leadership. The oldest among them have never experienced a war where Australia suffered significant losses, like Vietnam.
For most, war has been a low risk means of career advancement, witness the decorations of Afghanistan “frontline” commanders based in the Persian Gulf.
The risks of signing up Australia for a war with China have been glossed over in their enthusiastic embrace of AUKUS and US foreign policy.’
—————–
Yep.
But if you think the military are out of touch, try the civilians! In any general war the comms will be down from day 1 and will basically be unrepairable until any war stops.
Given the heightened levels of reliance on imports and exports, shortages of just about everything will be extreme. Rationing will be the order of the day.
Spare parts are all in supply chains that are extremely vulnerable – even if we could still pay for them.
Our food exports would basically mostly rot in the paddocks because we would not be able to get them to our markets.
And so on and so forth.
leader @ 8.16pm,
That’s exactly right, but to listen to some people here they can’t wait for Dutton’s reign and are even forecasting how he will abuse his power and the Constitution to force nuclear power onto us. Like it will be some sort of genius move on his part. 🙄
When in fact it will be just the sort of thuggish Authoritarian behaviour we should have no truck with in this country. It’s the sort of thing people like Putin do. I guess that floats some people’s boats. It should never be taken as the right thing to do though, that I know for sure.
Speaking of subs, fuether news from USA is not good. It seems the US navy sub program is both behind schedule and running over budget. Like ADF recruiting, they are struggling to attract enough people to sub construction. Their shipyard wages are lousy, compared to the skills required.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/new-us-submarines-running-17-billion-over-budget-lawmaker-says
@BW – I’m not a Boomer but I certainly felt old reading that Guardian article where tenants were complaining about paying through an app where they had to pay a fee for the convenience of not entering their banking details every time… instant payment for free if they did enter the banking details. I’m like – when I was renting I still had to work with paper cheques and paper tenancy and bond forms, and these kiddies are screaming murder at landlords for having to enter their banking details into an app. They take so much modern convenience for granted.
It’s one of the first times I’ve really had a “in my day we walked to school uphill both ways none of these newfangled motorised carriages” sort of moment.
‘Arky says:
Friday, September 20, 2024 at 8:40 pm
@BW – I’m not a Boomer but I certainly felt old reading that Guardian article where tenants were complaining about paying through an app where they had to pay a fee for the convenience of not entering their banking details every time… instant payment for free if they did enter the banking details. I’m like – when I was renting I still had to work with paper cheques and paper tenancy and bond forms, and these kiddies are screaming murder at landlords for having to enter their banking details into an app. They take so much modern convenience for granted.
It’s one of the first times I’ve really had a “in my day we walked to school uphill both ways none of these newfangled motorised carriages” sort of moment.’
——————–
Haha. I can see why the experience of Covid, the emotional, social and economic consequences of Covid, inflation, a housing bubble, high rents are hard to cope with if you have experienced tough times before. Quite a shock to the system! However, when anything and everything is just another opportunity to froth up a moral panic, my response is increasingly ‘Meh’.
They might want to look at average hours worked per week, the history of paid annual leave entitlements, how much parental leave there was in 1950 and how much sick leave there was in 1950. Then go to the retirement age.
I see the people who don’t complain are complaining again.
Ha Arky. I remember our bottled milk being delivered each day by a huge draught horse dragging a big cart down the street at 5am in Ascot Vale in the early 60s. I’d be late for school watching them being fed n watered after they finished their night’s work.
Elmer Fudd says:
Friday, September 20, 2024 at 8:57 pm
Ha Arky. I remember our bottled milk being delivered each day by a huge draught horse dragging a big cart down the street at 5am in Ascot Vale in the early 60s.
______________
Ascot Vale! All the people round there were Horsey/Carney folk. Odd bunch.
David Crisafulli is poised to return the Liberal National Party to majority government in Queensland for the first time in a decade, entering the state election campaign on track to inflict a brutal defeat on the third-term Labor government. An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Weekend Australian on the eve of the campaign proper shows the LNP has leapt 10 points clear of Labor – 55 to 45 per cent after preferences.
If the predicted 8.2 per cent swing against Steven Miles’s Labor government were uniform across the state on October 26, it would deliver the LNP a comfortable majority of 55 seats in the 93-electorate parliament.
Despite Mr Miles this week declaring he could still win back support of voters who had turned against Labor since the Covid-19 pandemic, the Newspoll results suggest the ALP would lose 20 seats, including five held by ministers, reducing it to just 31 seats in the single-chamber parliament.
ALP 30
LNP 42
Greens 12
ON 8
Others 8
Newspoll has just dropped!
For Qld state gov election.
Behind paywall but the Australian says “Steven Miles faces wipe out”
Also “Alp poll chance the worst by Miles”
Fed labor gov not helping.
‘Royal Doulton says:
Friday, September 20, 2024 at 8:53 pm
I see the people who don’t complain are complaining again.’
——————-
Haha.
PageBoi was complaining. Bitterly. I was trying to give him a sense of perspective. I am certainly not complaining. After war, being a war refugee and then an economic refugee, growing up poor, and having lived in around 20 dwellings by the time I was 21 – sometimes sleeping two to a bed as a child- I have since had a fortunate life. There have been some hard times as an adult but I took the bad with the good. By world historical and current global standards, I have been incredibly fortunate.
No complaints at all.
I have often wondered how lucky it was to have had the rough end of the pineapple first and then the juicy chunks, rather than the other way around.
Yeah they were Dave. Horses walked down the street to go to the Flemington track at 4am. Horse shit everywhere. Used to dodge em on my bike delivering papers. Horses, Italians, Maltese and aussie “houso” bogans everywhere. I loved it. Oh dear. Labor in Qld. Damn.
I can remember the ice man.
When delivering to the house, he would ‘accidentally’ drop chunks of ice on the ground for us kids to grab.
On a hot day, no air con of course, luxury!
UK Voting Intention Via @techneUK 18-19 Sep:
LAB: 33% (-2)
CON: 21% (-3)
RFM: 18% (+3)
LDM: 13% (=)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Arky:
It becomes an issue when you’re not allowed to pay by bank transfer any more – only the app. And of course, the app is owned by Ray White’s great-grandson. Charging people a non-avoidable fee for something as simple as saving an account number or setting up a recurring transfer (which internet banking lets you do easily for free) is deeply evil, and potentially illegal. (The laws are hard to enforce: if a real estate agent can make you homeless and trash your credit history, you’re less likely to report their illegal and predatory behaviour.)
https://7news.com.au/business/housing/ray-white-agencies-forcing-tenants-to-pay-hundreds-in-hidden-fees-through-third-party-app-ailo-c-11970146
Elmer Fudd says:
Friday, September 20, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Yeah they were Dave. Horses walked down the street to go to the Flemington track at 4am. Horse shit everywhere. Used to dodge em on my bike delivering papers. Horses, Italians, Maltese and aussie “houso” bogans everywhere. I loved it.
_______
Mainly Essendon and North supporters right?
Just the RFM looney party picked up votes. Next election in 4 years 9 months.
Today’s people will fight the battles of today and live in the world of today. What life was like in the 1950s is irrelevant. Just as life in the 195os was infinitely better than life in the 1900s and old people then scolded young people and gave them some perspective. So it goes.
“It becomes an issue when you’re not allowed to pay by bank transfer any more – only the app. And of course, the app is owned by Ray White’s great-grandson. Charging people a non-avoidable fee for something as simple as saving an account number or setting up a recurring transfer (which internet banking lets you do easily for free) is deeply evil, and potentially illegal. (The laws are hard to enforce: if a real estate agent can make you homeless and trash your credit history, you’re less likely to report their illegal and predatory behaviour.)”
Might be a ‘first world problem’ but we live in the first world. Totally support people pushing back on being forced to pay money to pay your bills and hand over wildly excessive amounts of private information knowing that at some point it will be hacked.
Sounds like good news?
Ukrainian soldiers could soon be using retired Australian battle tanks in their fight against invading Russian forces, as the Albanese government works with the Biden administration on a plan to send them to the battlefield.
This masthead can reveal that, after previously appearing to rule out providing tanks to Ukraine, the government is considering its request and working with the US to make the transfer happen.
One of the nation’s longest serving army chiefs joined calls for Australia to provide its old tanks to Ukraine, saying he was baffled why the decision to send them hadn’t been made already.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-has-mothballed-a-550m-tank-fleet-ukraine-would-like-a-word-20240919-p5kbsx.html
Douglas and Milko
“Sound like good news?”
———————————-
That would be great. Please do it Albo. It will cost us virtually nothing but will save innocent lives.
D&M,
I saw that story and I wondered whether the initial decision to send tanks or not was made subsequent to tanks seeming to be redundant in the war between Ukraine and Russia. I guess they’ve decided that they aren’t.
Thought Pageboi was more an anti-labor complaint than a bitter complaint about the vicissitudes of life anyway.
“Bill Shorten has accused the Greens of blocking home ownership policies out of “political expediency””
I’m inclined to agree
“ Sounds like good news?
Ukrainian soldiers could soon be using retired Australian battle tanks in their fight against invading Russian forces, as the Albanese government works with the Biden administration on a plan to send them to the battlefield.
This masthead can reveal that, after previously appearing to rule out providing tanks to Ukraine, the government is considering its request and working with the US to make the transfer happen.
One of the nation’s longest serving army chiefs joined calls for Australia to provide its old tanks to Ukraine, saying he was baffled why the decision to send them hadn’t been made already.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-has-mothballed-a-550m-tank-fleet-ukraine-would-like-a-word-20240919-p5kbsx.html”
_____
Two years too late: a pox on Biden’s ‘strategy’ of keeping Ukraine sufficiently armed to stay in the fight, but not actually win it last summer.
Yep Dave. Mostly essendon but some shin boners. Of course I was of my own mind and backed Collingwood to piss my Dad off ☺
The govt does not have a majority in the Senate. Greens voters didn’t vote for them to be a rubber stamp for Labor. If Labor wants to take a take it or leave it approach that’s there own misguided problem that is not reflective of their position in the Senate. Instead of whinging about blocking they should sit down and negotiate with the Greens and work out something they can both live with.
Elmer Fudd says:
Friday, September 20, 2024 at 9:48 pm
Yep Dave. Mostly essendon but some shin boners. Of course I was of my own mind and backed Collingwood to piss my Dad off
___________
Good man.
mj says:
Friday, September 20, 2024 at 10:11 pm
The govt does not have a majority in the Senate. Greens voters didn’t vote for them to be a rubber stamp for Labor. If Labor wants to take a take it or leave it approach that’s there own misguided problem that is not reflective of their position in the Senate. Instead of whinging about blocking they should sit down and negotiate with the Greens and work out something they can both live with.
________
And the cross bench. It isn’t just the two of them 😉