Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria

The Australian has a Victorian state poll from Newspoll the first since late 2016. Despite an apparently rough ride over the New Year period, Labor is credited with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, perfectly unchanged from the 2014 election, from primary votes of Labor 37% (38.1% in 2014), Coalition 39% (42.0%), Greens 11% (11.5%) and One Nation 6%.

Daniel Andrews has a positive net approval, which he didn’t in the 2016 poll: 46% approval (up six), 41% disapproval (down six). Matthew Guy is up two on approval to 36%, and down one on disapproval to 37%. Andrews leads 41-30 as preferred premier, compared with 42-31 last time. Respondents were also asked which party they preferred on energy supply and power prices (Labor 44%, Liberal 34%) and law and order (Liberal 42%, Labor 37%), and whether enough was being done to reduce gang violence (25% yes, 65% should do more).

The poll was conducted “February to March”, though obviously more the former than the latter, from a sample of 1268.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

13 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria”

  1. Despite all the efforts of the federal and state branches of the Liberal Party to blacken the name of Andrews personally and the ALP in Victoria generally this is the result the Liberals get.
    Victorians clearly are awake to Liberal lies.
    It must grate the gears of the Liberals
    A tip, maybe having a Leader who doesn’t consort with criminals in restaurants might help the image.

  2. I feel somewhat relieved by this news. Some faith restored that my fellow Victorians (or at least, not all of them) don’t go for race-baiting scare campaigns.

  3. Although I guess my previous comment doesn’t face up well to the 65% of respondents saying “more needs to be done to combat gang violence”.

  4. The continuing attacks on the Labor government in Victoria by the Murdoch press have been of concern and will remain of concern

    For example the front page headline re the Firefighters agreement trumpeted the 19% increase in wages and allowances noting that the EBA expired 4 and a half years ago

    What there was absolutely no mention of is the term of the EBA now agreed

    I understand the term is 6 years (I stand to be corrected)

    This puts the confected outrage over the 19% into context including its blatant attempt to misrepresent and damage the government

    That said the Murdoch press will only go harder given this result – and that is an ever present danger

    The other bias is the 9 Network with its News Service given over to Victoria Police media who obviously support a Police State in support of Murdoch’s attacks on the judiciary and which offers Guy the exposure it provides to him and his criticisms of the government

    It was the case that Guy only made himself available to Murdoch and 9 – which appears to still be the case

    So there is the “soft” Liberal sell by the Costello chaired 9

    This also represents a continuing danger

    9 rely on the Murdoch press and promote same by reference in their “News” service

    That this blatant bias has not impacted to date is pleasing but there can be no complacency

    No doubt pressure will come on Guy in regards the Stamoulis family, who dictate who the Member for Bulleen will be, Burnes and the other property developers who have been the beneficiaries of Guy’s time as Planning Minister – and his other backers and associates

    There is then Kroger and the Court matter over the control of a fund raising Cormack arm of the Liberal Party – which funds are currently not available to the Liberal Party and are instead now supporting far right identities and Parties including Hanson who is entering the Victorian election

    In terms of Liberal representation in Greater Melbourne they are restricted to a very narrow corridor to the east of Melbourne being the high income inner suburbs into the religious right outer Eastern suburbs which gave us Family First and which House the freehold ownerships of those religious right organisations – and they infiltrate with younger families

  5. Problem is whatever bullshit Herald Sun puts out all other media outlets start using the same narrative, including The Age, which is basically anti-Andrews. Even ABC and Guardian was going off about the firefighters’ EBA with out of context Herald Sun allegations served to readers.

    Fewer and fewer read Herald Sun but they still set the agenda for the general media.

  6. Herald Sun Advertisement:
    “Desperately looking for one or more women who can come forward with sexual harassment accusations against Daniel Andrews”
    Matthew Guy

  7. In actual fact you need look no further than Guy’s own Electorate Office in the Bulleen Shopping Centre, the female staff employed and the hushed up allegations against the prior Stamoulis endorsed Member, who was of Greek heritage.

    Continuing employment in Guy’s Electoral Office to hush the matter up.

    It was reported in the media but that was the extent of it and it “went away”

  8. I can see the ALP losing both Richmond and Brunswick to the Greens (but there is 30% chance that Northcote will swing back to the ALP). And that is the majority gone… but the Liberals (and Nationals) are going to struggle to find the seats they need to win a majority as well.
    There is the ongoing issues in the seat of Morwell that might see the Nationals lose the seat (not that I think Ricky Muir will win) and the Nationals are not going to win Shepparton back from the Independent Suzanna Sheen who won last time (the state version of Cathy McGowan).

    There is one issue with the poll and that is the fact that on the primary vote One Nation was counted. There is no state level party of One Nation in Victoria; it is not registered with the VEC (and registration is harder in Victoria than federally). The only harder-than-the-Liberal Party Rightwing parties registered with the VEC are the Australian Country Party, Shooters, Farmers, and Fishers and Cory’s Conservatives (None with which carry the overt racism that One Nation uses).

  9. The was a VEC advertisement in yesterday’s paper advising that PHON has applied for registration in Victoria as a political party.

  10. They are still very unorganised compared to Queensland or Western Australia (that is saying something). I doubt they will field candidates in a large number of seats. More likely in the upper house (even there they will need 16 candidates to stand in every area).

  11. My guess is the people who were on the Greens-bandwagon are now back with Labor.

    This is because the Greens recent ascent went to their heads, and their (often extreme) views/actions have made Labor look more solid and reliable in comparison.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *