BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Very slight movement back to the Coalition on the latest poll aggregate this week, with a not-quite-so-bad Newspoll providing the only new numbers.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is drifting back towards the Coalition as other pollsters fail to replicate their particularly bad result from ReachTEL a fortnight ago. There is no change on the seat projection, though this is due to the correction of an error that short-changed Labor two seats in Queensland last week. The is balanced by Coalition gains of one seat apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll’s latest numbers have taken a big chunk out of Malcolm Turnbull’s readings on the leadership trends, while Bill Shorten holds even on net approval. Enjoy all the results in detail by clicking on the image below.

Note that there’s a post below this one on Newspoll’s latest state voting intention result from Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,643 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

  1. Wakefield:

    One of the amazements of the population debate on ABC tonight is that no-one mentioned countries which have more or less stable populations which include Japan and a fair bit of Europe. Any rational consideration of aging populations and population needs to understand what the “steady state” population scenario looks like.

    Any rational consideration of aging populations also needs to recognise that increasing the population of working-age people is only a temporary fix, at best, and isn’t actually a fix at all – because then you’ll just have an even bigger population of elderly people who need more younger people to work to earn taxes to support their needs, and the cycle continues. It cannot go on indefinitely.

  2. I suppose there are Greens among the members of Refugee Action Coalition but is there any evidence that Greens members are involved with the sign that there is considerable agitation about?

  3. Mr Newbie – precisely. It is one of the sillier arguments put around including by the hack demographers who seem to promote it.

  4. Only that Di Natale and the Green candidate were marching lock step in line with the sign thief.

    But I’m sure there is a logical and entirely believable explanation.

  5. Wakefield @ #2602 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 11:46 pm

    I suppose there are Greens among the members of Refugee Action Coalition but is there any evidence that Greens members are involved with the sign that there is considerable agitation about?

    No, but The Greens who were prominent in the march could have told the person that did the defacement of the Labor corflute to put it away. They didn’t and were seemingly happy to march with it. It wasn’t a large march either, so they couldn’t have missed seeing the offending poster.

  6. Fulvio – the pic put up a couple of days ago had the sign a couple of “rows” back from de Natale, Greens candidate. Given the number of Socialist Alliance and other trotkyist/fringe groups that also seem to be involved in RAC then it could also be one of them or just an over-enthusiastic amateur?

  7. And you can see the person who held the illegally-defaced Ged Kearney corflute in this photo:

    Actually I can’t. And that’s a different photo than the one with Bhathal and RDN marching behind the banner. And a different banner IIRC.

  8. Confessions @ #2609 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 11:56 pm

    And you can see the person who held the illegally-defaced Ged Kearney corflute in this photo:

    Actually I can’t. And that’s a different photo than the one with Bhathal and RDN marching behind the banner. And a different banner IIRC.

    You can see him behind the defaced corflute, he has sunglasses on and is turning his head to the side and his right hand is holding it up near the top corner. Or at least I can see it.

    It’s true that the banner seems different. Maybe they had a photo taken with that banner and then marched with the other one?

  9. C@t:

    Still not seeing it, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t there.

    From what I’ve observed from afar the Greens have run a woeful campaign in Batman. They certainly do not deserve to win on Saturday.

  10. I think Cat is right that the same banner is on the LHS of pic and the person holding it is the one described by Fulvio. Given that the id seems clear I take it that his id has been checked and no direct connection to Greens? Given the march was by Refugee Action Coalition I’m not sure what Greens would do other than ask for removal and probably get told to naff off (“breaking the law is justifiable in this case” or whatever).

  11. I reckon if his image was blown up and put in the paper, someone will surely recognise him.

    Though he might have removed his sunglasses, bought a toupe , and shaved his beard by now …

  12. Wow! Labor going after the financial jugular of Coalition supporters!


    Labor to axe cash refunds for wealthy investors, saving $11.4bn
    Bill Shorten’s policy shuts down Howard-Costello change to dividend imputation scheme

    Bill Shorten will promise to end cash refunds for excess imputation credits for individuals and superannuation funds in a sweeping crackdown saving $11.4bn over the forward estimates.

    In a shift that will be met with fierce resistance from investors and Australia’s self-managed super funds, Labor will shut down an extension of the dividend imputation scheme created by John Howard and Peter Costello, and restore the system to the original design, implemented by Paul Keating in the late 1980s.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/13/labor-to-axe-cash-refunds-for-wealthy-investors-saving-114bn

  13. Night all. 🙂

    (Note to self: refuse a brewed coffee when you go to dinner at your friend’s house, you’ll be up all night!) 🙂

  14. Mr Newbie says:
    Monday, March 12, 2018 at 11:45 pm
    Wakefield:

    One of the amazements of the population debate on ABC tonight is that no-one mentioned countries which have more or less stable populations which include Japan and a fair bit of Europe. Any rational consideration of aging populations and population needs to understand what the “steady state” population scenario looks like.

    Any rational consideration of aging populations also needs to recognise that increasing the population of working-age people is only a temporary fix, at best, and isn’t actually a fix at all – because then you’ll just have an even bigger population of elderly people who need more younger people to work to earn taxes to support their needs, and the cycle continues. It cannot go on indefinitely.

    There are other factors that need to be considered, including the fall in the birth-rate, which means there are relatively fewer dependent children in the population and relatively less time and money will be committed to child-rearing than on “productive” activities than was the case in earlier eras.

    As well, the economy has becomes more productive and will continue to become more productive as long as we continue to invest in it. Even as the aged population increases the call on the economy for social security does not rise at the same rate. Allied to this, there was a very great increase in life expectancy during the 20th century and yet this did not cripple the Federal budget. In fact, because more people are healthier for longer and able to be more productive for longer, the increased longevity of the population may end up adding as much to revenue as will be detracted from it.

    As an example, I was out on Saturday night at a function. One of the other guests was an old friend of mine. He is about 64 yo. He recently had both knees replaced and has regained a level of mobility that mans he can resume full time work again. He is likely to work for another 8-10 years or even longer.

    The stats quoted in this area are partial and are used to justify policies that are often anti-social as well as economically irrational.

  15. C@t

    That’s brave of Shorten. The scare campaign will be winding up as we speak.

    Morrison will turn it up to 12 if his responses to the taxing of real estate investment is any guide.

    But I guess Shorthen can argue that wealthy retirees, Howard’s other battlers, don’t vote labor anyway.

  16. Wakefield, if he had no connection with the Greens they’d be screaming it from the roof tops, complaining about the “disgusting Labor smear”, and the corflute thief would have sold his life story to the Daily Telegraph, under the headline “Angry Ex Labor Supporter Vents Spleen”.

  17. Interesting Four Corners and then Q&A. So many experts with blind spots.

    We came very close to a good discussion about high speed rail but then it didn’t quite live up to its promise. And it amazes me how many transport experts have a lot of insight but just don’t get the big picture.

    For instance, when the topic of high speed rail came up, the presumption was that high speed rail creates dormitory towns. In other words people just commute further (as if that in itself is a problem). The reality is a lot more complex. Yes, people will move further to have a house and commute longer distances, if they are able to. But when you bring major cities within time proximity of each other you actually create the conditions where employers also move out. This is what is happening to Newcastle and Wollongong already thanks to the highway network. A high speed rail network will greatly accelerate this. You only have to look at what happens in Japan. Yes, a lot of dormitory towns/cities, but then after a while small cities grow up around the high speed rail stations and become centres of employment in themselves.

    Another thing not mentioned is that Europe has a lot of smaller cities whereas in Australia, Sydney and Melbourne suck in 60 percent of the population. In Europe there are high speed trains of course. Now, what people often don’t notice about Sydney is that functionally its not one city but a conurbation that hides a group of sub cities. If you were to take Sydney and just stretch it another 50Km in each direction, you’d have a situation not unlike Europe with smaller cities and then green fields between them. That there is an argument for making Sydney function as a unified city by having faster (I mean 180Km/hr class, not true high speed rail) trains linking Sydney east-west and north-south.

    There was also mention of the Greater Sydney Commission concept of bringing more jobs closer to where people live. This is of course a cop out for failing to provide a high speed transport fabric. But what really annoys me and I also get mad at the so called experts who go along with this idea is that its a fantasy. We go and settle more millions of people west of Parramatta we don’t create the same kinds of jobs. We create more service jobs, and schools and hospitals. But a certain proportion of the new population will need the kinds of jobs that are only created in the east.

    The Greater Sydney Commission are in underpants gnomes territory on this issue. They have this cop out about creating the right kinds of jobs for each area, but fuck this, what about the kids who grow up and want high value, knowledge work jobs? They can get fucked according to the GSC.

    On the issue of population. Advocates on both sides are showing their blind spots. Yes, the whole idea of bringing in more young people to keep the population from ageing is a ponzy scheme. But on the other hand there is no hard and fast limit for a “steady state” population – its all subjective as to exactly what lifestyle you want. The other thing getting ignored is that yes technology does solve a lot of problems. Okay, cities have a huge footprint and the reality is the world has to go vegan, or nearly so. But in a country like Australia with immense renewable energy resources it follows that we are not as short on fresh water as we think.

    The other thing is even given a population target and lower immigration, we are not going to implement a one child policy. The population will grow to some extent and we are simply not getting real abut the quantum of money needed to be invested in transport and especially rail.

    One final thing. Infrastructure Australia is one of those bodies that doesn’t get that on the whole we don’t need more roads. But it still preaches more roads and it still is anti rail because of the way it fundamentally misunderstands the role of rail. Rail is not there to make money from tickets. Rail is there to fulfil a transport function – to get people from A to B efficiently and in doing so avoiding spending billions more on roads.

    A high speed rail network. Not just intercity, but one that traverses Sydney itself, would obviate tens of billions in road costs. Not just construction but all the costs associated with use. However this has not yet occurred to all the so called experts dragged onto these shows.

  18. Additionally, Pegasus would have cut and pasted it here 7 times, and Nicholas would have treated us to one of his sanctimonious homilies about the righteousness of being a frog.

  19. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/13/labor-to-axe-cash-refunds-for-wealthy-investors-saving-114bn

    Interesting. Sounds like a good move economically though. And most of the people who wont like it dont vote ALP anyway.

    And if it gives the ALP sustainable and rational room to move on the revenue / expenditure mix, that will be remarkably useful in the lead up to the election.

    A revenue measure like this is going to be frightening for the Libs. With this in their pocket (as well as other things), Mr Shouty ScoMo will not be a happy camper.

  20. C@tmomma @ #2596 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 10:36 pm

    Probably because they know what they have done is illegal.

    Defacing political signage is a crime? I guess that’s what happens when politicians start taking themselves too seriously.

    It ought to be protected political speech, and political candidates ought to just understand that some proportion of their political signage will be commandeered and plan accordingly. Elections would be more fun if all sides could compete for ‘best defacement of an opponent’s corflute’.

    Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #2627 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 11:30 pm

    We came very close to a good discussion about high speed rail but then it didn’t quite live up to its promise. And it amazes me how many transport experts have a lot of insight but just don’t get the big picture.

    And how few experts grasp the concept of telecommuting and its relevance to the problem.

    Particularly galling since Grattan Institute Guy made a point about how his employees complain to him about their commute times. Well sorry Guy, but if you actually gave a shit about your employees you’d let them work from home and skip the commute entirely. There’s literally nothing that a think-tank employee needs to do that would reasonably require them to be physically on-premises in the middle of a packed CBD.

    But of course if you want to get serious about telecommuting you also need to get serious about the NBN, and that’s just not on.

  21. Actually, ar, it is an offence, just like defacing any property belonging to another is an offence.

    And converting someone else’ s property to your own use is also an offence; an even bigger one. It’s called stealing, and the person doing the stealing is called a thief.

    Very easy to trivialize crime when it’s not your property that’s being defaced or stolen, isn’t it?

  22. Fulvio Sammut @ #2633 Tuesday, March 13th, 2018 – 12:00 am

    Very easy to trivialize crime when it’s not your property that’s being defaced or stolen, isn’t it?

    Nah, more like very easy to trivialize when the property in question is 1) not generally paid for by its owner in the first pace and 2) imminently about to possess zero value to anyone (including its owner) and end up in the trash or recycling anyways and 3) available and deployed in near limitless quantities on or adjacent to public land, to the annoyance of all.

    I say let everyone’s speech be heard, not just the people who have donations to spend on signage. It’s more fun that way. 🙂

  23. Ah, I see.

    You redefine the concept of ownership of property into categories, based on the likely transience of the owners possession, , the contribution made by him/her towards its acquisition, its propensity to depreciate, and the position in which it is located, and , depending on your unilateral and subjective assessment, you can chose to deal with it as you please, regardless of the owners proprietorial claim.

    Sounds fair.

    Next time the kid down the road parks the delapidated old bomb car his father gave him as a birthday present on the street verge, I’ll take it and sell it.

  24. how can retirees be wealthy if they aren’t even earning enough to pay tax. I guess they can cancel their health insurance and use the public system that will help balance the books.
    If you are not retired and trying to grow your super nest egg that won’t grow as fast either with the Shorten proposal

  25. It is one corflute defaced by one idiot. It does not seem to be a campaign tactic by the Greens party or a groups from them. I assume a bit of sign disfigurement happens in the course of a campaign caused by over zealous idiots without the brains to know they are actually hurting their own side.

    It is wrong as it steals the resources that people have gathered to support their party and if someone is found out they should be called out on it.

    BUT…

    But I do not think it is worth thousands of words on PB or can be extrapolated to every Green supporter or the party as a whole.

    Politicians of all types have probably marched with the odd bad sign in the crowd.

    “Ditch the Witch” is an example of politicans knowingly standing with offensive sexist signs in order to be photographed supporting the messages.

    This is hardly a DTW moment.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *